Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

yagan · 19-05-2021 09:47AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Mostly a way around the RPZ rules - give an upfront discount, but the headline rents still remain higher. Given property prices are affected by rents achievable, it makes sense that they would try to maximise value by keeping the official rent higher than the actual rent collected.

As it's way too early in the reopening phases to gauge how much of the preceding dynamic will return so these discounts are worth keeping an eye.

If the RPZ circumvention discount becomes the norm past reopening then the rent seeking funds will pull back from new purchases until true rental value is rediscovered.

L1011 · 19-05-2021 09:56AM

yagan wrote: »

And yet we have new rentals offers with 1-2 months refund at the moment.

The evidence is far from conclusive at the moment to either bearish or bullish.

That has no bearing on whether PropQueries "quick fixes" are fantastical or not, though. Every single one of them purports that some single thing will individually release enough supply to crash the market, when it clearly won't.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 10:15AM

L1011 wrote: »

That has no bearing on whether PropQueries "quick fixes" are fantastical or not, though. Every single one of them purports that some single thing will individually release enough supply to crash the market, when it clearly won't.

I don't believe I ever said one single thing, more that many single things will join together at one moment and soon IMO

For example, there was a poster a few days ago asking about investing in a one bed apartment in Citywest and renting it out for €1,300 per month.

Does anyone truly believe that a one bedroom apartment in Citywest will be renting for €1,300 per month in ten years time. That matters to this years property market, as an investor would need to be confident that rents will be at least similar to today in ten years time to justify paying a certain price today for such an apartment.

From just three or many more possible imminent threats to the property market.

Given the probable exponential advance of remote working over such a time period, a significant reduction in student numbers etc. in the city and throw in, not just the proposed Biden global tax reforms on future FDI but also the EU's proposed new replacement for the CCCTB as reported yesterday, there's every reason to believe that both rents and property prices in Dublin will be significantly lower in 10 years time IMO

And, if one believes that rents are going to be significantly lower in ten years time, that means properties being purchased today as an investment should be priced (or will begin to be priced very shortly) significantly lower in today's market to take account of that changed future IMO

Link to RTE article on the EU's new replacement for the CCCTB here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0518/1222387-european-union-tax-plan/

Marius34 · 19-05-2021 10:23AM

yagan wrote: »

You seem fixated on one poster, it's not healthy. Their's is not the only perspective on the matter so please refrain from steamrolling the discussion.

Was following Covid forum for short while. I saw quite a few of different "perspective","facts" were moved to Conspiracy forum. I'm missing it here, in order to keep on track for actual 2021 Irish Property Market.

Villa05 · 19-05-2021 10:27AM

Marius34 wrote:

Was following Covid forum for short while. I saw quite a few of different "perspective","facts" were moved to Conspiracy forum. I'm missing it here, in order to keep on track for actual 2021 Irish Property Market.

By its nature and thread title, this is a speculative thread. Buying a property is a long term investment. What could potentially/happen in the future is very relevant to 2021

yagan · 19-05-2021 10:31AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I ever said one single thing, more that many single things will join together at one moment and soon IMO

For example, there was a poster a few days ago asking about investing in a one bed apartment in Citywest and renting it out for €1,300 per month.

Does anyone truly believe that a one bedroom apartment in Citywest will be renting for €1,300 per month in ten years time. That matters to this years property market, as an investor would need to be confident that rents will be at least similar to today in ten years time to justify paying a certain price today for such an apartment.

From just three or many more possible imminent threats to the property market.

Given the probable exponential advance of remote working over such a time period, a significant reduction in student numbers etc. in the city and throw in, not just the proposed Biden global tax reforms on future FDI but also the EU's proposed new replacement for the CCCTB as reported yesterday, there's every reason to believe that both rents and property prices in Dublin will be significantly lower in 10 years time IMO

And, if one believes that rents are going to be significantly lower in ten years time, that means properties being purchased today as an investment should be priced (or will begin to be priced very shortly) significantly lower in today's market to take account of that changed future IMO

Link to RTE article on the EU's new replacement for the CCCTB here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0518/1222387-european-union-tax-plan/

Excellent points.

There's certainly a lot of change in play at the moment and we're far from feeling the impact of such changes upon the pre covid market dynamic.

It's impossible to say WFH isn't going to suddenly evaporate, too many businesses have seen bottom line cost saving advantages and many corporates in the USA have already cut travel budgets for meetings that can be zoom chats.

Politically in Ireland regional pressure will be on supporting more WFH options so that's more pressure off Dublincentric jobs.

Bass Reeves · 19-05-2021 10:37AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Mostly a way around the RPZ rules - give an upfront discount, but the headline rents still remain higher. Given property prices are affected by rents achievable, it makes sense that they would try to maximise value by keeping the official rent higher than the actual rent collected.

The issue with RPZ rules is if a LL reduced his priced by 15% it could take 8 years to return to that rental point by natural progression. It has nothing really to do with property values. Visibility from Reits accounts will show there actual yields. Landlords buying will know what the market beats from there own market knowledge

awec · 19-05-2021 10:39AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I ever said one single thing, more that many single things will join together at one moment and soon IMO

For example, there was a poster a few days ago asking about investing in a one bed apartment in Citywest and renting it out for €1,300 per month.

Does anyone truly believe that a one bedroom apartment in Citywest will be renting for €1,300 per month in ten years time. That matters to this years property market, as an investor would need to be confident that rents will be at least similar to today in ten years time to justify paying a certain price today for such an apartment.

From just three or many more possible imminent threats to the property market.

Given the probable exponential advance of remote working over such a time period, a significant reduction in student numbers etc. in the city and throw in, not just the proposed Biden global tax reforms on future FDI but also the EU's proposed new replacement for the CCCTB as reported yesterday, there's every reason to believe that both rents and property prices in Dublin will be significantly lower in 10 years time IMO

And, if one believes that rents are going to be significantly lower in ten years time, that means properties being purchased today as an investment should be priced (or will begin to be priced very shortly) significantly lower in today's market to take account of that changed future IMO

Link to RTE article on the EU's new replacement for the CCCTB here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0518/1222387-european-union-tax-plan/

If anyone thinks they have any clue whatsoever what a 1 bed apartment will rent for in 10 years time then they are completely full of ****.

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 10:43AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I ever said one single thing, more that many single things will join together at one moment and soon IMO

For example, there was a poster a few days ago asking about investing in a one bed apartment in Citywest and renting it out for €1,300 per month.

Does anyone truly believe that a one bedroom apartment in Citywest will be renting for €1,300 per month in ten years time. That matters to this years property market, as an investor would need to be confident that rents will be at least similar to today in ten years time to justify paying a certain price today for such an apartment.

From just three or many more possible imminent threats to the property market.

Given the probable exponential advance of remote working over such a time period, a significant reduction in student numbers etc. in the city and throw in, not just the proposed Biden global tax reforms on future FDI but also the EU's proposed new replacement for the CCCTB as reported yesterday, there's every reason to believe that both rents and property prices in Dublin will be significantly lower in 10 years time IMO

And, if one believes that rents are going to be significantly lower in ten years time, that means properties being purchased today as an investment should be priced (or will begin to be priced very shortly) significantly lower in today's market to take account of that changed future IMO

Link to RTE article on the EU's new replacement for the CCCTB here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0518/1222387-european-union-tax-plan/

IYO property prices and rental prices will be significantly lower in a few weeks right?

im waiting on the Props Q3 prophecy.

MacronvFrugals · 19-05-2021 10:46AM

Again the political optics are awful, housing front and center this government cant catch a break...

Reit shares up on investor ‘relief’ at government housing measures

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/reit-shares-up-on-investor-relief-at-government-housing-measures-40444205.html

timmyntc · 19-05-2021 10:48AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The issue with RPZ rules is if a LL reduced his priced by 15% it could take 8 years to return to that rental point by natural progression. It has nothing really to do with property values. Visibility from Reits accounts will show there actual yields. Landlords buying will know what the market beats from there own market knowledge

Property values for BTLs are affected by the current rental price. Set it too low and it will be years before you can get up to the current market price - that will affect your yield, and therefore the property price.

Institutionals will do their best to keep the rents as high as possible - even if its not strictly achievable right now, it might be in future if demand goes up. They can cover that situation by setting the rent high but offering discounts. The rent they actually collect is the market rent, but should the market rent rise they can just reduce the discounts they offer and get rises well above the RPZ limit.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 10:57AM

Cyrus wrote: »

IYO property prices and rental prices will be significantly lower in a few weeks right?

im waiting on the Props Q3 prophecy.

Yes, I'm still down for by the end of August that the domino effect will start to come into play and move very quickly over the following few months

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:02AM

Cyrus wrote: »

You seem fixated with supporting one poster. it's not healthy. Their's is not the only perspective on the matter so please refrain from steamrolling the discussion.

I'm only interests in discussing the dynamics of the property market. I'm not personally invested to one position but I do think it's unhealthy when posters project fixed positions, it does zero for discovery.

Proffering an interesting perspective that may be bullish or bearish does not mean that that is what the market is or will do.

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 11:05AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, I'm still down for by the end of August that the domino effect will start to come into play and move very quickly over the following few months

we shall see wont we.

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 11:06AM

yagan wrote: »

I do think it's unhealthy when posters project fixed positions, it does zero for discovery.

So do I

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:08AM

awec wrote: »

If anyone thinks they have any clue whatsoever what a 1 bed apartment will rent for in 10 years time then they are completely full of ****.

I for one don't believe they'll get that yield, but that's speculation.

No need for the emotive.

enricoh · 19-05-2021 11:09AM

awec wrote: »

If anyone thinks they have any clue whatsoever what a 1 bed apartment will rent for in 10 years time then they are completely full of ****.

If anyone told my missus in 2006 when she was buying her 3 bed semi that it'd be still worth less than she paid for it in 2021 they'd be considered full of **** too!

L1011 · 19-05-2021 11:10AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I ever said one single thing, more that many single things will join together at one moment and soon IMO

For example, there was a poster a few days ago asking about investing in a one bed apartment in Citywest and renting it out for €1,300 per month.

Does anyone truly believe that a one bedroom apartment in Citywest will be renting for €1,300 per month in ten years time. That matters to this years property market, as an investor would need to be confident that rents will be at least similar to today in ten years time to justify paying a certain price today for such an apartment.

From just three or many more possible imminent threats to the property market.

Given the probable exponential advance of remote working over such a time period, a significant reduction in student numbers etc. in the city and throw in, not just the proposed Biden global tax reforms on future FDI but also the EU's proposed new replacement for the CCCTB as reported yesterday, there's every reason to believe that both rents and property prices in Dublin will be significantly lower in 10 years time IMO

And, if one believes that rents are going to be significantly lower in ten years time, that means properties being purchased today as an investment should be priced (or will begin to be priced very shortly) significantly lower in today's market to take account of that changed future IMO

Link to RTE article on the EU's new replacement for the CCCTB here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0518/1222387-european-union-tax-plan/

You have previously claimed that corporation tax changes would lead to the state not purchasing any properties and would alone fix the market

You have very recently claimed that there was some backlog of probate properties (that you could not support) and that alone would fix the market.

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, I'm still down for by the end of August that the domino effect will start to come into play and move very quickly over the following few months

It was July you were claiming a few weeks ago.

Marius34 · 19-05-2021 11:10AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, I'm still down for by the end of August that the domino effect will start to come into play and move very quickly over the following few months

You can start to work out for the excuse already, and who to blame why it's not happening (mostly political reasons). I see by some posters constant confidence what's to happen, and when time passes looking for the excuse why it didn't happen YET, rather than recognizing failed predictions.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 11:17AM

Marius34 wrote: »

You can start to work out for the excuse already, and who to blame why it's not happening (mostly political reasons). I see by some posters constant confidence what's to happen, and when time passes looking for the excuse why it didn't happen YET, rather than recognizing failed predictions.

I'm working on the assumption I won't need an excuse and it should be evident for all to see

Then again, it's all based on all my current information and what I believe will happen and will happen around the same time, but obviously, caveat emptor and all

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:17AM

enricoh wrote: »

If anyone told my missus in 2006 when she was buying her 3 bed semi that it'd be still worth less than she paid for it in 2021 they'd be considered full of **** too!

Was going to post something similar, I know way too many in that position.

Back then some became very defensive and in some cases hostile when I said I was going to wait it out.

Villa05 · 19-05-2021 11:18AM

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Again the political optics are awful, housing front and center this government cant catch a break...

Reit shares up on investor â€˜reliefâ€™ at government housing measures

Of course there up, little attention is being paid to the potential doubling of the social and affordable quota of new estates.
This has gone from the bread and butter of REITs rent generation to the premium customer at peak market rates and at full occupancy in terms of guaranteed rental payments

Social housing has moved from setting a floor on market rents to shooting to the sky in terms of rental inflation

Incredibly dumb policy, entirely unsustainable and heavily funded by taxpayers priced out of both rental and purchase markets

It's so unsustainable that I fear that much more state land will be fed into this process to keep it going and further enrich these funds

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 11:19AM

L1011 wrote: »

You have previously claimed that corporation tax changes would lead to the state not purchasing any properties and would alone fix the market

You have very recently claimed that there was some backlog of probate properties (that you could not support) and that alone would fix the market.

It was July you were claiming a few weeks ago.

I believe I said July/August, primarily depending on the outcome of those OECD global tax reforms. But, from what I read recently, we should know a bit more by the end of this month on that direction, as that's when Biden is looking to lock in congress support for his infrastructure bill

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:22AM

Villa05 wrote: »

Incredibly dumb policy, entirely unsustainable and heavily funded by taxpayers priced out of both rental and purchase markets

It's so unsustainable that I fear that much more state land will be fed into this process to keep it going and further enrich these funds

If the rent farming funds hoovering up homes was a distortion for home buyers then the government joining in the bidding was a distortion on the distortion.

Marius34 · 19-05-2021 11:23AM

enricoh wrote: »

If anyone told my missus in 2006 when she was buying her 3 bed semi that it'd be still worth less than she paid for it in 2021 they'd be considered full of **** too!

Same with people here on the boards. If anyone told that price in 2021 will be higher than last year, they'd be considered full of **** too

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 11:31AM

Marius34 wrote: »

Same with people here on the boards. If anyone told that price in 2021 will be higher than last year, they'd be considered full of **** too

I think it has a lot to do (amongst many many other factors) with the Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien's comment several months ago:

"The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly".

Throw in that the property market has not been operating as normal over the past year and a bit and it should be interesting to see where it's really heading in the next month or so IMO

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:34AM

Cyrus wrote: »

So do I

Proffering a prediction is not projection onto others.

A prediction is not a fact, and predictions change as the facts as we know them change.

A projection is an assumed fact because once financially committed to a 10-20-30 year debt speculation becomes irrelevant.

JohnnyChimpo · 19-05-2021 11:39AM

Marius34 wrote: »

You can start to work out for the excuse already, and who to blame why it's not happening (mostly political reasons). I see by some posters constant confidence what's to happen, and when time passes looking for the excuse why it didn't happen YET, rather than recognizing failed predictions.

This thread always makes me think of this book

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails

SmokyMo · 19-05-2021 11:42AM

Marius34 wrote: »

Same with people here on the boards. If anyone told that price in 2021 will be higher than last year, they'd be considered full of **** too

hahaha not if one had the ability to think.

yagan · 19-05-2021 11:47AM

Marius34 wrote: »

Same with people here on the boards. If anyone told that price in 2021 will be higher than last year, they'd be considered full of **** too

Their prediction would have been wrong, but you attacking them as full of shíite is wrong and rude.

I don't consider those still in negative equity as being full of shíte. Do you?

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting