Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

PropQueries

Some interesting developments in the UK according to the BBC with "Universities keeping lectures online into autumn term".

Here's some snippets:

"The University of Liverpool says it wants as "much face-to-face teaching as possible", but is expecting a blend of online and in-person.In practice this may mean instead of coming on to campus for lectures you may be asked to watch some short pre-recorded videos created by your tutor which cover the same themes and topics as the original lecture...But many lectures will be delivered online as part of an overall hybrid approach"

The London School of Economics "expects the vast majority of seminars and classes to be taught in-person, but lectures will be largely delivered online".

"An academic at a London university, speaking anonymously, contacted the BBC to suggest there would be financial savings for universities from reducing staffing levels and making a longer-term shift to keeping lectures online."

Most likely a similar development will happen here IMO. If most lectures will be online going forward, most students will only have to turn up for tutorials etc. a couple of days a week.

Given that most students in Ireland wouldn't be more than a 2 hour drive from their nearest university, it would appear to me that the demand for housing from students in our cities is going to start dropping very fast and most likely permanently if Irish universities follow suit for the coming term in September IMO

Link to article on BBC here: https://www.bbc.com/news/education-57150071

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Some interesting developments in the UK according to the BBC with "Universities keeping lectures online into autumn term".

Here's some snippets:

"The University of Liverpool says it wants as "much face-to-face teaching as possible", but is expecting a blend of online and in-person.In practice this may mean instead of coming on to campus for lectures you may be asked to watch some short pre-recorded videos created by your tutor which cover the same themes and topics as the original lecture...But many lectures will be delivered online as part of an overall hybrid approach"

The London School of Economics "expects the vast majority of seminars and classes to be taught in-person, but lectures will be largely delivered online".

"An academic at a London university, speaking anonymously, contacted the BBC to suggest there would be financial savings for universities from reducing staffing levels and making a longer-term shift to keeping lectures online."

Most likely a similar development will happen here IMO. If most lectures will be online going forward, most students will only have to turn up for tutorials etc. a couple of days a week.

Given that most students in Ireland wouldn't be more than a 2 hour drive from their nearest university, it would appear to me that the demand for housing from students in our cities is going to start dropping very fast and most likely permanently if Irish universities follow suit for the coming term in September IMO

Link to article on BBC here: https://www.bbc.com/news/education-57150071

What does this have to do with anything? Universities are not schools, they are not chosen based on proximity.

yagan

PropQueries wrote: »

Given that most students in Ireland wouldn't be more than a 2 hour drive from their nearest university, it would appear to me that the demand for housing from students in our cities is going to start dropping very fast and most likely permanently if Irish universities follow suit for the coming term in September IMO

I was working with a recent grad from the USA who told me that it was far cheaper for them to do their masters in Dublin than in the USA, even when paying international fees.

As colleges in the USA are businesses I can imagine some will probably develop hybrids that saves on campus time and expense for both the college and student.

I believe WIT mentioned something about developing such an option.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

What does this have to do with anything? Universities are not schools, they are not chosen based on proximity.

Apparently they do. According to the Irish Independent:

"Data compiled by the Sunday Independent over the past eight years displays some notable trends, outlining where students prefer to study and their chosen third level institution's proximity to home. An analysis of this data shows significant numbers of students from Dublin, Cork and Donegal choose to stay in their own counties to study."

"Almost two thirds (62pc) of University College Cork's (UCC) student population hail from Cork."

"Dublin students have also shown a willingness to stay at home across the past eight years, but are evenly spread around the multiple universities and colleges in the capital."

If lectures were to be primarily online, the incentive to live and choose locally would only increase even more IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/school-league-tables/home-is-where-the-heart-is-for-a-lot-of-students-35404159.html

JimmyVik

yagan wrote: »

I was working with a recent grad from the USA who told me that it was far cheaper for them to do their masters in Dublin than in the USA, even when paying international fees.

As colleges in the USA are businesses I can imagine some will probably develop hybrids that saves on campus time and expense for both the college and student.

I believe WIT mentioned something about developing such an option.

I feel so sorry for the kids going to Uni these days.
Imagine spending your college years (the best and most fun years of your life) at a desk in your parents house.
Covid has a lot to answer for.

yagan

awec wrote: »

What does this have to do with anything? Universities are not schools, they are not chosen based on proximity.

This is a thread about Irish property and student accommodation has been prominent in the mix, especially in Dublin.

Last summer I think one developer applied for retrospective planning permission for 500 student units down in the docklands to be switched to private residential.

Zenify

awec wrote: »

What does this have to do with anything? Universities are not schools, they are not chosen based on proximity.

I thought is was a good point... and most people choose university based on location. The top end choose the best university usually Trinity or UCD but everyone else is mostly based on locality unless what they want to do is not available locally.

yagan

JimmyVik wrote: »

I feel so sorry for the kids going to Uni these days.
Imagine spending your college years (the best and most fun years of your life) at a desk in your parents house.
Covid has a lot to answer for.

There's plusses and minuses. On the plus side they save rent and on the social side I had far more fun when I was earning than when I was a broke student.

The social aspect is important, but a blended model with staggered on campus residency may actually allow a better overall experience.

If I had to do all over again I'd look look through eunicas.ie for courses in the EU too. Many options are far cheaper than Ireland, with the added bonus of picking up other languages.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently they do. According to the Irish Independent:

"Data compiled by the Sunday Independent over the past eight years displays some notable trends, outlining where students prefer to study and their chosen third level institution's proximity to home. An analysis of this data shows significant numbers of students from Dublin, Cork and Donegal choose to stay in their own counties to study."

"Almost two thirds (62pc) of University College Cork's (UCC) student population hail from Cork."

"Dublin students have also shown a willingness to stay at home across the past eight years, but are evenly spread around the multiple universities and colleges in the capital."

If lectures were to be primarily online, the incentive to live and choose locally would only increase even more IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/school-league-tables/home-is-where-the-heart-is-for-a-lot-of-students-35404159.html

62% of UCC's students are from Cork.

But what % of Cork students are at UCC.

The two stats are very different.

JimmyVik

yagan wrote: »

There's plusses and minuses. On the plus side they save rent and on the social side I had far more fun when I was earning than when I was a broke student.

The social aspect is important, but a blended model with staggered on campus residency may actually allow a better overall experience.

If I had to do all over again I'd look look through eunicas.ie for courses in the EU too. Many options are far cheaper than Ireland, with the added bonus of picking up other languages.

I'll say it again
Imagine spending your college years at a desk in your parents house.

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

62% of UCC's students are from Cork.

But what % of Cork students are at UCC.

The two stats are very different.

Plus you'd assume locals going to ucc are living at home anyway same as with Dublin kids in ucd, they aren't the ones driving demand for accommodation

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Plus you'd assume locals going to ucc are living at home anyway same as with Dublin kids in ucd, they aren't the ones driving demand for accommodation

I think you’re trying to be as positive as possible that everything will return to 2019 post-covid.

But the cities are going to be permanently a lot less busy post-covid from the permanent decline in business travel (carbon footprints) and companies like AIB already stating they will be going to 3 days home, 2 days in office post-covid etc. etc.

The housing markets in the cities are going to take a massive, permanent hit and most likely this year IMO

yagan

JimmyVik wrote: »

I'll say it again
Imagine spending your college years at a desk in your parents house.

Read my post again and you'll see that there may develop an blended option where students aren't at home for the whole time.

As someone else linked there's already a preference for staying near home colleges.

Another aspect I think that will impact the student accommodation model that's so popular is that Asian parents may feel less inclined to send their offspring to countries where there may an anti-Chinese sentiment after Covid.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you’re trying to be as positive as possible that everything will return to 2019 post-covid.

But the cities are going to be permanently a lot less busy post-covid from the permanent decline in business travel (carbon footprints) and companies like AIB already stating they will be going to 3 days home, 2 days in office post-covid etc. etc.

The housing markets in the cities are going to take a massive, permanent hit and most likely this year IMO

It won't be this year if they do.

IMO

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently they do. According to the Irish Independent:

"Data compiled by the Sunday Independent over the past eight years displays some notable trends, outlining where students prefer to study and their chosen third level institution's proximity to home. An analysis of this data shows significant numbers of students from Dublin, Cork and Donegal choose to stay in their own counties to study."

"Almost two thirds (62pc) of University College Cork's (UCC) student population hail from Cork."

"Dublin students have also shown a willingness to stay at home across the past eight years, but are evenly spread around the multiple universities and colleges in the capital."

If lectures were to be primarily online, the incentive to live and choose locally would only increase even more IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/school-league-tables/home-is-where-the-heart-is-for-a-lot-of-students-35404159.html

The figures you are citing do not support what you are trying to claim they support.

Please learn some basics of how statistics work - either you don't, or you are misrepresenting the content of an article again.

Zenify

Things couldn't have changed in the few years since I left college.

People from Dublin, study in Dublin. People from Cork study in Cork.

I'm from Dublin and studied in Dublin. I played sport at 3rd level. When we played against UCC they were from Cork, UL - Limerick etc. obviously a few exceptions but that's the way it was.

I remember less than 10% being from outside Dublin in my course and most of them were the surrounding counties. Lots of them rented the first few years but commuted the last year (2013) as it got too expensive so they commuted in.

I'd guess it will be a similar thing. Dublin people who are studying in Dublin will still stay at home as they did before. It will probably be the students on the outskirts who will manage much better now with commuting 1 or 2 days a week and won't need to rent.

The outskirts people rent. Kildare, Louth etc for Dublin. Kerry, Clare for Cork or Galway.

awec

Zenify wrote: »

Things couldn't have changed in the few years since I left college.

People from Dublin, study in Dublin. People from Cork study in Cork.

I'm from Dublin and studied in Dublin. I played sport at 3rd level. When we played against UCC they were from Cork, UL - Limerick etc. obviously a few exceptions but that's the way it was.

I remember less than 10% being from outside Dublin in my course and most of them were the surrounding counties. Lots of them rented the first few years but commuted the last year (2013) as it got too expensive so they commuted in.

I'd guess it will be a similar thing. Dublin people who are studying in Dublin will still stay at home as they did before. It will probably be the students on the outskirts who will manage much better now with commuting 1 or 2 days a week and won't need to rent.

People from Dublin and people from Cork study all over the world.

Zenify

awec wrote: »

People from Dublin and people from Cork study all over the world.

Of course they do. I'm a little lost here. Maybe I'm missing something.... Do you not agree that most Dublin 3rd level students study in Dublin?

edit

I did say there are exceptions

Graham

Zenify wrote: »

I'm a little lost here. Maybe I'm missing something....

I think there's a few of us in the same boat Zenify.

The rather confused theory appears to be something like this......

Some UK Universities are going to be keeping some lectures online this autumn and because Irish students in 2017 preferred to study in/near their home town or home county there's going to be significant impact on the post-covid property market.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I think there's a few of us in the same boat Zenify.

The rather confused theory appears to be something like this......

Some UK Universities are going to be keeping some lectures online this autumn and because Irish students in 2017 preferred to study in/near their home town or home county there's going to be significant impact on the post-covid property market.

Well, given that over 10,000 purpose built student bed spaces have been completed since 2016, there must have been some level of excess student demand for housing in our cities pre-covid.

If our universities follow what that BBC report says the UK universities are planning to do, that demand could reverse significantly post-covid, and it will have a significant negative impact on the property markets in all our university cities, most likely to be seen in the next 4 months IMO

And, if anything, it will definitely obliterate the student digs market IMO

John1648

Mad_maxx wrote: »

It needs to have a way higher yield as evicting tenants who stop paying takes two years and you won't be compensated if they damage the place

These would be an issue in any other city, alas. However, in Dublin, you deduce these costs and risks from a 1400 eur rent, elsewhere, these same go from 700- 800 gross rent.

I have looked at a few other markets too, and Ireland stand out positively pricisely because of:

- average price versus salaries & rents, and vacancy rates: so far Irish prices for real estate have not recovered to pre-2012 levels. Everywhere else they grew abofe and beyond. Apart from Madrid, Rome, Cyprus, Romania. But these are low-yield, stagnant economies, with low salaries. Real estate prices versus salaries are lowest in Ireland, out of the 10 most developed EU countries.

- Rents versus purchase prices, again, expressed in rental yields in Dublin are highest of all EU, the rest hovering at 2 - 4 %, gross, mostly

- Demographics - Ireland's population will grow faster than any other European country - with 30% by 2050, compare with stagnation or decline in Italy, Spain, France. NL come close, but has a very rental market controlled system

- Economy outlook - is bright, with youngish growing population in Ireland, multinationals, liberal open economy, many multinationals, US' interface to EU etc.

So to me this looks like a sound investment.

Certainly better than:

a) e.g. a 180 000 Paris suburbs aprt, with 4% gross yield, where all taxes lead to negative income right away
b) keeping cash for too long, which risks being eaten by approaching rampant inflation
c) a 200 000 aprt in Netherlands, with rent capped at 725 EUR gross, and multiple taxes
d) 4 smaller apartments in a Central European setting, with a minus 20 % demographic outlook

What would you say to the above considerations?

Pussyhands

Himnydownunder wrote: »

Is it just me or does the U.K. give more options to buyers of houses? Quite major cities like Manchester and Liverpool offer quite good value for money. You would get a decent place in Liverpool for 100k or less. Lesser cities like Peterborough and the like offer good bang for your buck. There are viable affordable options when it comes to cities across the water, once you leave London. In Ireland when you go outside Dublin, cities like Cork, Limerick and Galway are all still quite expensive.

UK is just far more spread out.

Population of Galway city is approx. 80k.

Mansfield is the 112th biggest town in UK and it has 82k. In terms of quality of life, you'd have the same services as Galway. Galway has tourism and things like the races/arts festivals but day to day living you'd have the same services.

Here, if you want to go somewhere with a bit of life, it has to be Limerick, Cork, Galway or Dublin. All the irish young people wanna go there to socialise, go to football/rugby/uni there. All the foreigners come to learn english aswell.

It's too concentrated.

SmokyMo

John1648 wrote: »

These would be an issue in any other city, alas. However, in Dublin, you deduce these costs and risks from a 1400 eur rent, elsewhere, these same go from 700- 800 gross rent.

I have looked at a few other markets too, and Ireland stand out positively pricisely because of:

- average price versus salaries & rents, and vacancy rates: so far Irish prices for real estate have not recovered to pre-2012 levels. Everywhere else they grew abofe and beyond. Apart from Madrid, Rome, Cyprus, Romania. But these are low-yield, stagnant economies, with low salaries. Real estate prices versus salaries are lowest in Ireland, out of the 10 most developed EU countries.

- Rents versus purchase prices, again, expressed in rental yields in Dublin are highest of all EU, the rest hovering at 2 - 4 %, gross, mostly

- Demographics - Ireland's population will grow faster than any other European country - with 30% by 2050, compare with stagnation or decline in Italy, Spain, France. NL come close, but has a very rental market controlled system

- Economy outlook - is bright, with youngish growing population in Ireland, multinationals, liberal open economy, many multinationals, US' interface to EU etc.

So to me this looks like a sound investment.

Certainly better than:

a) e.g. a 180 000 Paris suburbs aprt, with 4% gross yield, where all taxes lead to negative income right away
b) keeping cash for too long, which risks being eaten by approaching rampant inflation
c) a 200 000 aprt in Netherlands, with rent capped at 725 EUR gross, and multiple taxes
d) 4 smaller apartments in a Central European setting, with a minus 20 % demographic outlook

What would you say to the above considerations?

This is getting annoying. Put your money in index, you should get annualized 10%.
They way you going about, asking random forum users, you probably shouldn't be actively managing your finances, you will lose money and be crying then...

OEP

Most Dublin and Cork people stay in their county for college but they're not part of the student rental market as they tend to stay at home. People from other counties tend to rent at their chosen college.

Mic 1972

House prices in urban areas like Dublin are always going to be more expensive, City Center is attractive to younger people, while other residential areas are attractive to wealthy families.

Villa05

Mic 1972 wrote:

House prices in urban areas like Dublin are always going to be more expensive, City Center is attractive to younger people, while other residential areas are attractive to wealthy families.

Of course, but when it's to an extent that most (and rising) of the people working in Dublin live outside Dublin, you have a major problem for those people and the state in providing and maintaining the infrastructure required to ferry them in and out of work every day

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, given that over 10,000 purpose built student bed spaces have been completed since 2016, there must have been some level of excess student demand for housing in our cities pre-covid.

If our universities follow what that BBC report says the UK universities are planning to do, that demand could reverse significantly post-covid, and it will have a significant negative impact on the property markets in all our university cities, most likely to be seen in the next 4 months IMO

And, if anything, it will definitely obliterate the student digs market IMO

Those student units have been coming on to the market for years, traditional student rental housing units have been returned to the open market for rental or sale in similar volumes and it has had no noticeable affect

Not a single one of your notional quick fixes is a fix (or quick, generally).

yagan

L1011 wrote: »

Those student units have been coming on to the market for years, traditional student rental housing units have been returned to the open market for rental or sale in similar volumes and it has had no noticeable affect

Not a single one of your notional quick fixes is a fix (or quick, generally).

And yet we have new rentals offers with 1-2 months refund at the moment.

The evidence is far from conclusive at the moment to either bearish or bullish.

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

And yet we have new rentals offers with 1-2 months refund at the moment.

The evidence is far from conclusive at the moment to either bearish or bullish.

Mostly a way around the RPZ rules - give an upfront discount, but the headline rents still remain higher. Given property prices are affected by rents achievable, it makes sense that they would try to maximise value by keeping the official rent higher than the actual rent collected.

Ozark707

L1011 wrote: »

Those student units have been coming on to the market for years, traditional student rental housing units have been returned to the open market for rental or sale in similar volumes and it has had no noticeable affect

Most of those new student places are priced outside the range that most Irish students will pay so there is likely to be quite a bit of vacancy in them unless non EU students return in big numbers.