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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1562
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,172 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes, was amazed at the amount of people thanking this when it was clearly just anti McConkey. Must be a groundswell of dislike there for the man

    I take what McConkey says with a pinch of salt as well: not outright dismissal, but a bit of scepticism. He was wrong on a few things of course, he's far from infallible.

    But that old chestnut about him saying we'll definitely have 80,000 or more deaths is just plain false and it's always repeated ad nauseum like a trump card and gets oodles of thanks each time. And it's not true. I wonder how people can just thank and repeat that over and over again. Possible worst case scenario speculation, at a time when so little was known about the virus, not a cast iron certainty. There's a difference guys!

    There are other things to call McConkey's credibility into question: for instance his disbelief that a vaccine was on the cards for ages, if at all, pretty damning tbf - but that old likely death figures charge is bogus. It just hurts my brain seeing that over and over again.

    But, fck it saying this won't make any difference really. People just want to thank things they agree with, facts aren't important.


  • #1563
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,919 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Arghus wrote: »
    I take what McConkey says with a pinch of salt as well: not outrig6ht dismissal, but a bit of scepticism. He was wrong on a few things of course, he's far from infallible.

    But that old chestnut about him saying we'll definitely have 80,000 or more deaths is just plain false and it's always repeated ad nauseum like a trump card and gets oodles of thanks each time. And it's not true. I wonder how people can just thank and repeat that over and over again. Possible worst case scenario speculation, at a time when so little was known about the virus, not a cast iron certainty. There's a difference guys!

    There are other things to call McConkey's credibility into question: for instance his disbelief that a vaccine was on the cards for ages, if at all, pretty damning tbf - but that old likely death figures charge is bogus. It just hurts my brain seeing that over and over again.

    But, fck it saying this won't make any difference really. People just want to thank things they agree with, facts aren't important.

    Won't thank your post so ;)
    But I agree with it .
    So much as changed and moved on in the last year , don't think any one commentator or " expert " has been 100% right, on all sides .
    People tend to only remember the negatives that augment their own particular beliefs .


  • #1564
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    No he wasnt spot on - he predicted 80,000 - 120000 deaths from covid.

    There was no way we were going to get any where near these figures even with the country not locked down - Restrictions did not save 90 thousand people.

    McConkey - the biggest doom monger of them all.

    It is rather absurd that McConkey has persisted in the limelight this long, considering how wide of the mark he was last year. Forecasting deaths in six figures was reckless and irresponsible, exploiting an element of uncertainty to push himself towards the limelight. People understandably have grown wearied of his resolutely negative outlook, with the vaccination program proving a resounding success McConkey comes across as shrill to the point of desperation on national radio. In other words, the jig is up and the general public aren't beholden to an incoherent fear narrative anymore.


  • #1565
    Deeper Blue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,399 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Let's not forget that McConkey has been on the radio the last few months saying the vaccines don't work against the variants, despite there being zero evidence to back that up.

    He's the definition of an attention seeking doom merchant. Roll on the day when he disappears back into obscurity where he belongs.


  • #1566
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,919 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Deeper Blue wrote: »
    Let's not forget that McConkey has been on the radio the last few months saying the vaccines don't work against the variants, despite there being zero evidence to back that up.

    He's the definition of an attention seeking doom merchant. Roll on the day when he disappears back into obscurity where he belongs.

    Don't think he is , anymore than any of them supplementing their already very large salaries by going on tv shows and radio.
    He is just saying what he believes and it is his educated opinion, whether we agree or like it , or not . That is why they keep paying him and others to talk.
    Luke O'Neill the same .
    Both have come out with some batsxxx stuff this last year .


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  • #1567
    Azatadine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,579 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    I ignore them all with the exception of Kingston Mills. Balanced contributor.

    Plus.....totally qualified to contribute:

    Kingston Mills is Professor of Experimental Immunology, School of Biochemistry and Immunology, Trinity College Dublin (TCD). He is Head of The Centre for the Study of Immunology at Trinity Biomedical Sciences Institute and Theme Champion for Immunology, Inflammation and Infection at TCD.


  • #1568
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,919 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Azatadine wrote: »
    I ignore them all with the exception of Kingston Mills. Balanced contributor.

    Yeah he's good and yet man EoinLavelle fromTrinity .


  • #1569
    Whitters22
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 122 ✭✭Whitters22


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yeah he's good and yet man EoinLavelle fromTrinity .

    What a truly bonkers time we're living through when we all know every immunologist/virologist in the country. While we're at it I'll throw Paul Moynagh from Maynooth in the ring as being a good contributor.


  • #1570
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Have not heard much from Tomas Ryan for awhile.


  • #1571
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,497 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Don't think he is , anymore than any of them supplementing their already very large salaries by going on tv shows and radio.
    He is just saying what he believes and it is his educated opinion, whether we agree or like it , or not . That is why they keep paying him and others to talk.
    Luke O'Neill the same .
    Both have come out with some batsxxx stuff this last year .

    What he believes and his educated opinion has always been on the extreme end of worst case extrapolations.

    The issue I have is that it appears to be ok to wildly overestimate impacts, that gets a free pass. We’ve seen it repeatedly with the four horsemen of ISAG. If you underestimate you are thrown to the wolves.

    This is how McConkey framed swine flu in 2009:

    ‘‘Even if you erred on the side of caution and estimated that one million people got it, and that one in every 1,000 of those people were to die, it is like four jets going down in Dublin airport.”

    https://www.irishcentral.com/news/ireland-braces-for-1-million-cases-of-swine-fle-51861752-237652931


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  • #1572
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Arghus wrote: »
    McConkey has for sure said some inconsistent things throughout, but he was referencing those kind of figures in terms of a possible worst case scenario, not that it was a certainty that those kind of figures were to be expected. He never said we are definitely going to have 80,000 deaths or more, he was making an assumption about the worst possible outcome.

    It amazes me that so many people thanked your post, without really thinking about it. I guess if you just put the combination of "McConkey" and "doom" close together it'll get the thanks, even if the sentiments expressed aren't accurate or logical.

    If someone asks you what is the worst possible outcome of a given situation, you outlining that isn't the same as saying you think it definitely will happen.
    McConkey and all the rest are the same as the celebrity economists we had back in 2009 about the economy. Back then too they had lots to say but no means nor inclination to do things. It's not that he or the others are right or wrong, it's that they don't know when to avoid microphones. It's not entirely their fault as they are on speed dial for media outlets but they have indulged in all manner of guesswork and added a dollop of whatever their own agenda is. Some of those claims have been quite alarming and they really don't have the PR skills to walk them back. Publicity of this nature is a boon for anyone with an opinion to share but people also have the right to challenge or even pour scorn on those opinions.


  • #1573
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    In 2009, I was told by an eminent doctor that 1 in 250 people in Ireland would die of swine flu.


  • #1574
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    While India struggles with Covid and the Israel and Palestine conflict, we seem to be more concerned with a 99 flake shortage. Its a premium article now on the Independent


  • #1575
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    In 2009, I was told by an eminent doctor that 1 in 250 people in Ireland would die of swine flu.

    I hope he referred to you by your title! ;)


  • #1576
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    I think the lack of daily swabs numbers, detailed case number breakdowns, hospital status report etc... Has almost killed off this thread?

    Personally, I have not given covid much thought since the HSE hack and no longer being bombarded with stats... It is nice.


  • #1577
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 859 ✭✭✭OwenM


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    What he believes and his educated opinion has always been on the extreme end of worst case extrapolations.

    The issue I have is that it appears to be ok to wildly overestimate impacts, that gets a free pass. We’ve seen it repeatedly with the four horsemen of ISAG. If you underestimate you are thrown to the wolves.

    This is how McConkey framed swine flu in 2009:

    ‘‘Even if you erred on the side of caution and estimated that one million people got it, and that one in every 1,000 of those people were to die, it is like four jets going down in Dublin airport.”

    https://www.irishcentral.com/news/ireland-braces-for-1-million-cases-of-swine-fle-51861752-237652931

    McConkey is a complete spoofer, 17 people died from swine flu in Ireland. Zero credibility and not just recently, he has demonstrated it consistently.


  • #1578
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    wadacrack wrote: »
    While India struggles with Covid and the Israel and Palestine conflict, we seem to be more concerned with a 99 flake shortage. Its a premium article now on the Independent

    The indo is an absolute rag to be fair


  • #1579
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,122 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    The indo is an absolute rag to be fair

    And it was covered by The Irish Times, Examiner, RTE, Newstalk and others. I've no gra for the Indo but they were not unique on that one.


  • #1580
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    wadacrack wrote: »
    While India struggles with Covid and the Israel and Palestine conflict, we seem to be more concerned with a 99 flake shortage. Its a premium article now on the Independent

    You can cover other items of news. The world just doesn't stop spinning as normal if there's covid or trouble Palestine. It's nice for there to b some variety in the news stories and some local stuff.

    The indo is a crapfest no matter what they cover.


  • #1581
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    And it was covered by The Irish Times, Examiner, RTE, Newstalk and others. I've no gra for the Indo but they were not unique on that one.

    Good point :)


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  • #1582
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    And it was covered by The Irish Times, Examiner, RTE, Newstalk and others. I've no gra for the Indo but they were not unique on that one.
    I for one am gutted by the news! Heard a story over the weekend about someone who was refused a flake! Dark forces at work!


  • #1583
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    Arghus wrote: »
    I take what McConkey says with a pinch of salt as well: not outright dismissal, but a bit of scepticism. He was wrong on a few things of course, he's far from infallible.

    But that old chestnut about him saying we'll definitely have 80,000 or more deaths is just plain false and it's always repeated ad nauseum like a trump card and gets oodles of thanks each time. And it's not true. I wonder how people can just thank and repeat that over and over again. Possible worst case scenario speculation, at a time when so little was known about the virus, not a cast iron certainty. There's a difference guys!

    There are other things to call McConkey's credibility into question: for instance his disbelief that a vaccine was on the cards for ages, if at all, pretty damning tbf - but that old likely death figures charge is bogus. It just hurts my brain seeing that over and over again.

    But, fck it saying this won't make any difference really. People just want to thank things they agree with, facts aren't important.


    At the end of November on Claire Byrne Live he cast doubt that the vaccines would be effective on the elderly and said they wouldn't have been part of the trials. This was at a stage when we knew a good amount about the trials and that the elderly had indeed been part of them and the vaccine was effective. The only question is whether he was deliberately misleading people (maybe to stop people from acting like the pandemic was over) or if he just didn't bother reading up. Either way it would lead me to not really put much value in what he's saying.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-vaccine-trial-age-efficacy-older-people-5286119-Dec2020/


  • #1584
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    wadacrack wrote: »
    While India struggles with Covid and the Israel and Palestine conflict, we seem to be more concerned with a 99 flake shortage. Its a premium article now on the Independent

    The indo are right, and what's more we need more detail, ie.

    what are the hold ups,
    what is the delivery schedules for flakes over the next few months,
    who get prioritised for deliveries of flakes when they do come,
    do you need to register to express an interest in receiving flakes,
    how are other countries doing, do they have more flakes than us,
    are there other flake manufacturers coming on board soon?

    We need to know such info, and we need it now.


  • #1585
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    The indo are right, and what's more we need more detail, ie.

    what are the hold ups,
    what is the delivery schedules for flakes over the next few months,
    who get prioritised for deliveries of flakes when they do come,
    do you need to register to express an interest in receiving flakes,
    how are other countries doing, do they have more flakes than us,
    are there other flake manufacturers coming on board soon?

    We need to know such info, and we need it now.

    I've heard insinuations that people will be offered twirls if they can't be offered flakes.


  • #1586
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,933 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Arghus wrote: »
    McConkey has for sure said some inconsistent things throughout, but he was referencing those kind of figures in terms of a possible worst case scenario, not that it was a certainty that those kind of figures were to be expected. He never said we are definitely going to have 80,000 deaths or more, he was making an assumption about the worst possible outcome.

    It amazes me that so many people thanked your post, without really thinking about it. I guess if you just put the combination of "McConkey" and "doom" close together it'll get the thanks, even if the sentiments expressed aren't accurate or logical.

    If someone asks you what is the worst possible outcome of a given situation, you outlining that isn't the same as saying you think it definitely will happen.

    Did McConkey express that as a worst case scenario though? As far as I remember, 80,000 was the lower end of the scale he predicted, with the higher end going into the 100k+ reaches. I’m not even sure if he was talking about this being a ‘No Restrictions Whatsoever’ scenario either and I’m also not sure what his timescale for this prediction was. Also, I would point out that there is a particular responsibility on people in positions of expertise. When they make statements like this, they tend to be taken seriously by all — from the ordinary citizen, up through the media, and indeed all the way to government (I actually recall either Harris or Varadkar specifically saying that McConkey’s figures had been influential to their thinking). In that regard, if you are going to fire out these kinds of huge numbers as an expert, I think it is reasonable to expect that they will be influential in discourse and decision making and to expect that you will be pilloried for being wrong.

    Also, McConkey seems to fall in line with other experts or academics who made similarly dire predictions. There can be no room for interpretation about “worse case scenarios” in other studies which reflected the kind of huge numbers McConkey was talking about. For example, a study from Uppsala University (using the Imperial College model that most definitely was influential in decision-making), predicted that Sweden’s Covid strategy last year would cause 96,000 deaths by July 2020. That statement, entirely unequivocal, can be found in paragraph 1 of page 17 of the study here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf

    So, to me, given the severity of restrictions which citizens have been made to endure for over a year of their lives — one feels very ill-equipped to chastise people for calling out those who were projecting these kinds of numbers.


  • #1587
    castletownman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    I've heard insinuations that people will be offered twirls if they can't be offered flakes.

    To be fair, twirls are the superior chocolate.

    No side-effects of it flaking everywhere either.

    I'd take it.


  • #1588
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    I've heard insinuations that people will be offered twirls if they can't be offered flakes.

    Supposedly flakes are widely available in private schools!!!!!


  • #1589
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Can we stop with the flakes / twirls argument?

    Refuse either one and you'll be put to the back of the queue :pac:


  • #1590
    kleiner feigling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    Also, I would point out that there is a particular responsibility on people in positions of expertise. When they make statements like this, they tend to be taken seriously by all — from the ordinary citizen, up through the media, and indeed all the way to government (I actually recall either Harris or Varadkar specifically saying that McConkey’s figures had been influential to their thinking). In that regard, if you are going to fire out these kinds of huge numbers as an expert, I think it is reasonable to expect that they will be influential in discourse and decision making and to expect that you will be pilloried for being wrong.

    Some acknowledgment of the limitations of humans and modelling is needed, I feel.
    We use modelling in my own work, and it can be powerful in coming to quick conclusions IF you input the right parameters. But in modelling its neccessary to significantly simplify/reduce the inputs parameters to get any conclusion.
    With covid there are so many variables it seems a very challenging prospect to a) select the most relevant factors b) reach conclusions that are numerically accurate.

    To date the modelling has tended to given us worst-case predictions that haven't been borne out in reality.

    Another issue is society's reluctance to accept that all humans are fallible; government, scientists etc. The likes of McConkey etc. might mean well, but it doesn't mean they'll get it right every time, or even half the time. No need to ridicule them, as we get data we can and should rigorously review it and re-jig our approach.
    Unfortunately, I've seen very little of that happening in the policies to date.


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  • #1591
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    Did McConkey express that as a worst case scenario though? As far as I remember, 80,000 was the lower end of the scale he predicted, with the higher end going into the 100k+ reaches. I’m not even sure if he was talking about this being a ‘No Restrictions Whatsoever’ scenario either and I’m also not sure what his timescale for this prediction was. Also, I would point out that there is a particular responsibility on people in positions of expertise. When they make statements like this, they tend to be taken seriously by all — from the ordinary citizen, up through the media, and indeed all the way to government (I actually recall either Harris or Varadkar specifically saying that McConkey’s figures had been influential to their thinking). In that regard, if you are going to fire out these kinds of huge numbers as an expert, I think it is reasonable to expect that they will be influential in discourse and decision making and to expect that you will be pilloried for being wrong.

    Also, McConkey seems to fall in line with other experts or academics who made similarly dire predictions. There can be no room for interpretation about “worse case scenarios” in other studies which reflected the kind of huge numbers McConkey was talking about. For example, a study from Uppsala University (using the Imperial College model that most definitely was influential in decision-making), predicted that Sweden’s Covid strategy last year would cause 96,000 deaths by July 2020. That statement, entirely unequivocal, can be found in paragraph 1 of page 17 of the study here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf

    So, to me, given the severity of restrictions which citizens have been made to endure for over a year of their lives — one feels very ill-equipped to chastise people for calling out those who were projecting these kinds of numbers.

    Not one to defend McConkey, who is a bit of a donkey but from March 2020:
    "My median scenario is that we’d have a 20 per cent attack rate and 20,000 deaths.

    “We normally have 30,000 deaths in a year in this country so that’s almost two thirds of the year’s deaths all in one epidemic.

    “Worst case scenario is potentially up to an 80 per cent attack rate — that’s four million and again the two per cent death rate which could even be three or four per cent because a lot of the people in China haven’t recovered yet.

    “So it could be two or three per cent of those four million people will die — that’s 80,000 to 120,000 deaths.”

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/5181665/coronavirus-ireland-kill-transform-scoiety/

    So the median case scenario was 20,000 deaths and looking at what the likes of Hungary and Czech Republic have had, with significant restrictions, it does not in any way look particularly wild


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