Are we excited yet?

bfa1509 · 17-05-2021 7:13pm

While I hate how a clown has such an influence on the market - this can only be good in the long term. A good healthy correction with FUD as the cause rather than a double spend, new regulations or some other factor.

thecretinhop · 17-05-2021 8:55pm

i am looking at buying bitcoin. set up e torro if i buy bitcoin is that it. i dont hsve shorts or longs and all dat craic just want to invest starting it handy neewbie here

17-05-2021 9:00pm

thecretinhop wrote: »

i am looking at buying bitcoin. set up e torro if i buy bitcoin is that it. i dont hsve shorts or longs and all dat craic just want to invest starting it handy neewbie here

Wait till it drops more

SnuggyBear · 17-05-2021 9:00pm

Put all my coins into udst for the time being I think it looks like it is going to go down to 28k or so

antimatterx · 17-05-2021 9:10pm

Starting to creep up from todays lows thankfully

Graham · 17-05-2021 9:13pm

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Put all my coins into udst for the time being I think it looks like it is going to go down to 28k or so

Why 28k?

17-05-2021 9:16pm

Graham wrote: »

Why 28k?

https://youtu.be/R1gSac_gUc8

Jackben75 · 17-05-2021 9:23pm

Graham wrote: »

Why 28k?

not a hope, it's going to bounce and soon.:pac:

seannash · 17-05-2021 9:35pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://youtu.be/R1gSac_gUc8

I posted that above, its certainly an interesting take on it. But surely now the cat is out of the bag the rest of the price movement will be less effective

17-05-2021 9:41pm

Badly fukt wrote: »

https://youtu.be/R1gSac_gUc8

I wonder how many distributions there are to retrospectively fit a curve

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 9:42pm

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Put all my coins into udst for the time being I think it looks like it is going to go down to 28k or so

You see that makes logical sense to me. The simultaneous "buy the dips" and "hodl" advice appears inconsistent.

One can always spread the risk by partially doing it if you know you aren't sure, but to express strong opinions that both are simultaneously correct seemed contradictory to me.

If one is extremely confident that there will be a dip coming that you can buy - then why not liquidate (part of) your own position so that you can have the cash to buy back in in the dip? I can understand SnuggyBear's actions.

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 9:47pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder how many distributions there are to retrospectively fit a curve

What are you asking?

They may be fitting distributions to historical results. You can fit any distribution to any data. There are various metrics for choosing best fit distribution if you are choosing parametric distributions.

Or are you talking about error distributions around each measurement point?

Or are you asking about fitting an actual curve to some regression/model? I don't think that makes much sense.

17-05-2021 10:10pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

What are you asking?

They may be fitting distributions to historical results. You can fit any distribution to any data. There are various metrics for choosing best fit distribution if you are choosing parametric distributions.

Or are you talking about error distributions around each measurement point?

Or are you asking about fitting an actual curve to some regression/model? I don't think that makes much sense.

I think TA is bull**** so I'm implying you can make up any old nonsense to fit a curve retrospectively.

Billythekid19 · 17-05-2021 10:10pm

Looks like the hse hackers are looking to get paid in Bitcoin. You'd have to question the ethics of Bitcoin in the future and the impact this could have on future price.

seannash · 17-05-2021 10:13pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Looks like the hse hackers are looking to get paid in Bitcoin. You'd have to question the ethics of Bitcoin in the future and the impact this could have on future price.

As opposed to what method of ransom payment?

Billythekid19 · 17-05-2021 10:18pm

seannash wrote: »

As opposed to what method of ransom payment?

As opposed to wire transfer, net banking, credit card or debit card.

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:19pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I think TA is bull**** so I'm implying you can make up any old nonsense to fit a curve retrospectively.

I looked at the first two minutes of that video. It just looks like it's a TA pattern. Kind of along the lines of Elliott waves I'd imagine.

The theory is that if the market contains full information then TA cannot work. Empirically though it is used. Because participants are not fully rational. If you consider all information to be known and incorporated already then there is no point trading for alpha as you cannot beat the market on average. But obviously people do that, so there is alpha available.

I would assume that for crypto markets that TA is more "correct" or "useful" than in traditional markets. I don't know that for certain - just my own gut feeling.

If you wanted to learn about TA, there are a small number of books I think that are the foundation for the topic. I mean that there are lots of books but there are one or two main ones. I can't remember the names.

Or you could even look at the CMT designation which is sort of pseudo-recognised as a qualification in parts of the industry. I haven't done it. I read up on it a few years ago as I was thinking of doing it for the craic. Not because I necessarily believe in it but to see what they do. I'd imagine that if I was into your crypto then I would be reading up on it. It seemed very wishy-washy.

seannash · 17-05-2021 10:22pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

You see that makes logical sense to me. The simultaneous "buy the dips" and "hodl" advice appears inconsistent.

One can always spread the risk by partially doing it if you know you aren't sure, but to express strong opinions that both are simultaneously correct seemed contradictory to me.

If one is extremely confident that there will be a dip coming that you can buy - then why not liquidate (part of) your own position so that you can have the cash to buy back in in the dip? I can understand SnuggyBear's actions.

People do use this method but its incredibly difficult to time the cryptomarkets. Historically when bitcoin dips all other coins dip with it but look at cardano, xlm and a few others who have bucked that trend on this dip. If you sold you would have missed a crazy run on those alts.

Bob24 · 17-05-2021 10:23pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Looks like the hse hackers are looking to get paid in Bitcoin. You'd have to question the ethics of Bitcoin in the future and the impact this could have on future price.

I have seen this in the media , but actually dubious about it and wondering if they are just saying bitcoin instead of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin would make it easy for cryptocurrency forensic to track those coins forever. The likes of Zcash or Monero would be more common in this type of situation.

seannash · 17-05-2021 10:27pm

Bob24 wrote: »

I have seen this in the media , but actually dubious about it and wondering if they are just saying bitcoin instead of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin would make it easy for cryptocurrency forensic to track those coins forever. The likes of Zcash or Monero would be more common in this type of situation.

I work in IT and our company got hacked, most likely by this same group. Its bitcoin they want. I saw the communications and spoke with the team we brought in to negotiate us through it. Its always bitcoin ðŸ˜

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:27pm

seannash wrote: »

People do use this method but its incredibly difficult to time the cryptomarkets. Historically when bitcoin dips all other coins dip with it but look at cardano, xlm and a few others who have bucked that trend on this dip. If you sold you would have missed a crazy run on those alts.

Ok. But then people are just spreading the risk. I understand that of course. The "buy the dip" is not a strategy per say, more of a "I'll keep an eye out and if it goes cheap temporarily, I might buy a few more" kind of thing.

Jeff2 · 17-05-2021 10:29pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

You're very paranoid dude. You can do what you like with your own money. I hope you do well with it.

Anyone who answers this guy should stop IMO.

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:31pm

seannash wrote: »

I work in IT and our company got hacked, most likely by this same group. Its bitcoin they want. I saw the communications and spoke with the team we brought in to negotiate us through it. Its always bitcoin ðŸ˜

Their privacy concerns are likely less depending on the jurisdiction in which they operate.

They can divide it up and split it between them. No worries about spending them sure if their government/legal system don't care to try to track it back to them.

seannash · 17-05-2021 10:32pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

Ok. But then people are just spreading the risk. I understand that of course. The "buy the dip" is not a strategy per say, more of a "I'll keep an eye out and if it goes cheap temporarily, I might buy a few more" kind of thing.

Thats it, this thing that we all believe will increase in price is now significantly cheaper than it was a few days ago. Buy it now when its cheap because we believe its going to go back up to the price it was two weeks ago and beyond.

That is buy the dip really.

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:33pm

Jeff2 wrote: »

Anyone who answers this guy should stop IMO.

f38a3608eb31ff68f1b807efdc6155d5337b22e44b385aab9caaa39673bad15f.jpg

What has upset you princess?

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:37pm

seannash wrote: »

Thats it, this thing that we all believe will increase in price is now significantly cheaper than it was a few days ago. Buy it now when its cheap because we believe its going to go back up to the price it was two weeks ago and beyond.

That is buy the dip really.

Well my original point was that if you were certain that there was going to be a dip, so much so that you were waiting to pile into it with your last few cent (as a poster opined), then it would also seem logical to cash out now and then jump back in when that dip comes.

If you have a strong belief that a stock is going down for example, you have people who will take a naked position on a short position. Not necessarily recommended for general investors or allowed by a lot of vehicles but hedge funds will do that no bother.

If a person is telling me their strong belief that this will happen, I would question why they are effectively hedging it if that is the case.

Bob24 · 17-05-2021 10:38pm

seannash wrote: »

I work in IT and our company got hacked, most likely by this same group. Its bitcoin they want. I saw the communications and spoke with the team we brought in to negotiate us through it. Its always bitcoin ðŸ˜

Actually I was looking into this, and the “DarkSide” group which hacked the US pipeline takes either Bitcoin or Monero but charges 20% extra for bitcoin payments as it is harder to launder! Not sure about the HSE one though …

42958738-9578763-DarkSide_s_payment_portal_for_hacking_victims_is_seen_above_The_-a-59_1621028116746.jpg

42958738-9578763-DarkSide_s_payment_portal_for_hacking_victims_is_seen_above_The_-a-59_1621028116746.jpg

grindle · 17-05-2021 10:39pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

If one is extremely confident that there will be a dip coming that you can buy - then why not liquidate (part of) your own position so that you can have the cash to buy back in in the dip?

Because unlike regular assets where you're talking a couple of percent dip in a day these assets regularly go down double digits for days on end only to be up triple digits (percent-wise) on the monthly.

If people believe they can trade perfectly they can go for it, everybody's a genius in a bullrun. But the largest moves upwards happen on very few days and set new higher bottoms that can be far higher than the "peak" you sold at. I'm not trying to give myself a heart attack, so I try not to trade in general. Just buy, set and forget and keep an eye on what the market is doing.

Imagine missing out on BNB's run from $5 to over $500. I still curse myself for avoiding it's ICO thinking it was gonna be an exit scam even though Jihan Wu was involved (or because he was involved?). The amount I spent on it when it was $5 would have me well beyond retired by now if it was spent at ICO. Still, we're getting there. Slowly. Ish.

seannash · 17-05-2021 10:41pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well my original point was that if you were certain that there was going to be a dip, so much so that you were waiting to pile into it with your last few cent (as a poster opined), then it would also seem logical to cash out now and then jump back in when that dip comes.

If you have a strong belief that a stock is going down for example, you have people who will take a naked position on a short. Not necessarily recommended for general investors or allowed by a lot of vehicles but hedge funds will do that no bother.

If a person is telling me their strong belief that this will happen, I would question why they are effectively hedging it if that is the case.

Yes in theory, but its very hard to time it. Some people without a doubt do this and it might work out for them. Some might lose out on profits having sold and the price continues to rise.
I think we all kinda assume people are doing this. Its not a massive stretch to figure it out on your own so we probably dont mention it.
Telling people to hodl os basically noffering them assurance that the rpice will return and hit new all time highs.

Donald Trump · 17-05-2021 10:46pm

grindle wrote: »

Because unlike regular assets where you're talking a couple of percent dip in a day these assets regularly go down double digits for days on end only to be up triple digits (percent-wise) on the monthly.

If people believe they can trade perfectly they can go for it, everybody's a genius in a bullrun. But the largest moves upwards happen on very few days and set new higher bottoms that can be far higher than the "peak" you sold at. I'm not trying to give myself a heart attack, so I try not to trade in general. Just buy, set and forget and keep an eye on what the market is doing.

Imagine missing out on BNB's run from $5 to over $500. I still curse myself for avoiding it's ICO thinking it was gonna be an exit scam even though Jihan Wu was involved (or because he was involved?). The amount I spent on it when it was $5 would have me well beyond retired by now if it was spent at ICO. Still, we're getting there. Slowly. Ish.

But the volatility should make it easier - no? Traders always make a killing in choppier waters. The more volatility you have, the more likely you are going to hit that "dip" to buy back in! If you really believe that it is going up medium or long term, and that it might jump tomorrow, then you should buy in now and not wait for the dip

To me there seems to be a lot of anchor bias to the valuations.

To your point on missing out, that is just survivorship bias. Those are the ones you remember. You shouldn't put too much weight on those for yourself after the fact

Are we excited yet?

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