Are we excited yet?

mdmix

I'm looking at getting a small defi loan. Anyone got any experience with Aave, comp or similar? Anything to worry about regarding liquidation?

sparkletooth

Donald Trump wrote: »

It was a simple question for you.

You base your trading strategies on backward looking data? For a relatively novel asset with no intrinsic value? You're working with real-world numeraires? Is there anything even forward looking that is available for crypto that you could be using?

To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, you sound like the fella who might think he is a genius for obliviously "picking up pennies in front of the steamroller"


You can speculate with your own money - do momentum trades or whatever you like. But you shouldn't be coming on an encouraging others to blindly "buy the dips" or "Hodl" ffs.

Have you read any of my previous posts?

I'm warning against over trading which are all taxable events. I warned against using leverage which will get you rekt.

I don't see Crypto as a get rich scheme. And I only use cash to buy into dips. I'm not trading out of my positions in the middle of a bull market.

Again, you sound clueless.

Donald Trump

sparkletooth wrote: »

Have you read any of my previous posts?

I'm warning against over trading which are all taxable events. I warned against using leverage which will get you rekt.

I don't see Crypto as a get rich scheme. And I only use cash to buy into dips. I'm not trading out of my positions in the middle of a bull market.

Again, you sound clueless.

So you don't even understand what I am asking?

Today is my first day posting on this forum, so no, I have not read your posts. Only the one I replied to that was advising people to "buy the dips" and "Hodl".

You may have mistaken buying into a volatile bubble and perhaps some luck (I am happy for you there) for having actual investment skill

Mastroianni

buy VET

sparkletooth

Donald Trump wrote: »

So you don't even understand what I am asking?

Today is my first day posting on this forum, so no, I have not read your posts. Only the one I replied to that was advising people to "buy the dips" and "Hodl".

You may have mistaken buying into a volatile bubble and perhaps some luck (I am happy for you there) for having actual investment skill

I'm laughing at you. Good luck man

Donald Trump

sparkletooth wrote: »

I'm laughing at you. Good luck man

That's a "no" so. That's fine. I did think you would understand the question though as it's fairly basic. The type of thing that an entry level person should pick up within the first week anywhere near a desk.



You should understand some basics before investing, but it isn't against the law to do whatever you want with your own money.



Best of luck with your gambling dude. But hold off on encouraging others to do the same. You may not be lucky all the time. You likely won't be.

FileNotFound

sparkletooth wrote: »

I'm laughing at you. Good luck man

I thought we were meant to be a helpful community here.

Donald Trump

FileNotFound wrote: »

I thought we were meant to be a helpful community here.

I was just asking genuine questions. To me this "hodl" seems to be a long term strategy.


"buying the dip" seems logical to me if you are looking short term or else know the asset is below its intrinsic value.


I don't see why someone would advise to do both?


For a long term position, especially in a volatile asset that I am, hypothetically, personally convinced is going up, why would I wait for a "dip" to buy?


BTCUSD is 44,240 now. If it jumps to 50,000 then I shouldn't buy because it's not a dip? But I believe it will go up and I want a long term asset. So I should wait until it jumps to 60,000 and "dips" back down to 58,000? Seems a bit contradictory to me.

seannash

Donald Trump wrote: »

I was just asking genuine questions. To me this "hodl" seems to be a long term strategy.


"buying the dip" seems logical to me if you are looking short term or else know the asset is below its intrinsic value.


I don't see why someone would advise to do both?


For a long term position, especially in a volatile asset that I am, hypothetically, personally convinced is going up, why would I wait for a "dip" to buy?


BTCUSD is 44,240 now. If it jumps to 50,000 then I shouldn't buy because it's not a dip? But I believe it will go up and I want a long term asset. So I should wait until it jumps to 60,000 and "dips" back down to 58,000? Seems a bit contradictory to me.

At the risk of being dragged into this he probably means that if you posses a crypto that is currently falling dont panic sell(Hodl). Instead buy more while its dipping so you potentially reduce your initial buy in price if your buy in price was higher than the current value or buy the dip to increase the amount of a certain crypto you posess because its cheaper now.



This is all in the hopes it rises again.
I dont see how this is contradicting to be honest, most people on here dont just invest once and forget about it

This current price action is considered the dip, so buy the dip means buy it now

Potatoeman

It’s down from 54k a month ago to 36k but still up from 8k a year ago. Make of that what you will.

Donald Trump

seannash wrote: »

At the risk of being dragged into this he probably means that if you posses a crypto that is currently falling dont panic sell(Hodl). Instead buy more while its dipping so you potentially reduce your initial buy in price if your buy in price was higher than the current value or buy the dip to increase the amount of a certain crypto you posess because its cheaper now.



This is all in the hopes it rises again.
I dont see how this is contradicting to be honest, most people on here dont just invest once and forget about it

This current price action is considered the dip, so buy the dip means buy it now

No professional investor will do that. What differentiates professional investors from amateurs is knowing when to cut losses. The averaging you describe is almost effectively a martingale strategy. A martingale strategy ultimately only works if you have literally infinite resources. Which nobody has of course.



What happens is that people do that once and it "works" and they are convinced it will "always" work. It won't.



Crypto markets may indeed be a different asset class, but the fundamental risk management principles are the same. Nick Leeson was able to move Asian markets to get himself out or a hole a couple of times. I think he also employed a martingale strategy too.

But then a deterioration of his positions coincided with an earthquake which impacted Asian markets and he wasn't able to move them one time. So a bank a few hundred years old evaporated.

seannash

Donald Trump wrote: »

No professional investor will do that. What differentiates professional investors from amateurs is knowing when to cut losses. The averaging you describe is almost effectively a martingale strategy. A martingale strategy ultimately only works if you have literally infinite resources. Which nobody has of course.



What happens is that people do that once and it "works" and they are convinced it will "always" work. It won't.



Crypto markets may indeed be a different asset class, but the fundamental risk management principles are the same. Nick Leeson was able to move Asian markets to get himself out or a hole a couple of times. I think he also employed a martingale strategy too.

But then a deterioration of his positions coincided with an earthquake which impacted Asian markets and he wasn't able to move them one time. So a bank a few hundred years old evaporated.

We aren't professional investors man.
We anticipate (as do a lot of analysts) the crypto space to grow in the future and the technology associated with it to grow too. Dollar cost averaging doesn't seem like such a bad idea if you believe the market is going to grow. Nor is holding if you believe its going to rise. These two strategies can co exist.
If i believe apple is going to continue to grow i could contine to invest a certain portion of my wages every month. Some months they might dip below the price i bought in the month previous but that doesnt mean I sell.

Im not sure why this is so inflammatory.
As for it being a different asset class, well i dont think TA works for crypto like it does traditional stocks so perhaps it is.

Donald Trump

Potatoeman wrote: »

It’s down from 54k a month ago to 36k but still up from 8k a year ago. Make of that what you will.

To me that is just an extremely volatile asset that nobody can actually value. It could be 300k next year or 3k or 3.


I'm not saying it will go up or down. My point is just that it is extremely dangerous to see posts like

Suppress the ape brain and HODL. Buy the dips if you have anything left. NFA

Ignoring that I don't know what "NFA" is supposed to mean - that post is encouraging someone to put their last penny into an extremely volatile asset. If you give that advice then you need to qualify it with an honest assessment of the risk.



My original response to the poster was of course a rhetorical one. They have no idea if/when/how price will go in short term or long term. If they did, they'd have sold their positions at 60k and bought back at 45k. Anyone is welcome to take a position on anything. I'm not going to tell you when anything is going to crash to zero or even go down or go up to a million. I don't put money into that market so I don't care. If I did, I'd be putting maybe 2% in. Something like that. I'm not criticising anyone other than for giving investment advice with no basis or justification.


If you want to do a momentum play, that's fine too. In and out and bank the winnings. It's your money. You might make a lot doing it.

Donald Trump

seannash wrote: »

We aren't professional investors man.
We anticipate (as do a lot of analysts) the crypto space to grow in the future and the technology associated with it to grow too. Dollar cost averaging doesn't seem like such a bad idea if you believe the market is going to grow. Nor is holding if you believe its going to rise. These two strategies can co exist.
If i believe apple is going to continue to grow i could contine to invest a certain portion of my wages every month. Some months they might dip below the price i bought in the month previous but that doesnt mean I sell.

Im not sure why this is so inflammatory.
As for it being a different asset class, well i dont think TA works for crypto like it does traditional stocks so perhaps it is.

In theory TA shouldn't work for traditional asset classes, but it does - or more accurately can on average in the long run. Because information is asymmetric. I would imagine that TA works more for crypto but I have never looked into it. All prices are driven by flows, but in the case of traditional assets there is usually an underlying "logic" to it. Even though that logic, for slightly less "traditional" assets, may be dependent on incorrectly valued future potential. I can look at the balance sheet for Apple and the state of their markets and see what they have and that gives me a floor for intrinsic value for that share. I may still incorrectly value intangibles.



I didn't consider anything inflammatory - just that I considered that particular advice to put every penny into "dips" to be reckless.

sparkletooth

Donald Trump wrote: »

To me that is just an extremely volatile asset that nobody can actually value. It could be 300k next year or 3k or 3.


I'm not saying it will go up or down. My point is just that it is extremely dangerous to see posts like





Ignoring that I don't know what "NFA" is supposed to mean - that post is encouraging someone to put their last penny into an extremely volatile asset. If you give that advice then you need to qualify it with an honest assessment of the risk.



My original response to the poster was of course a rhetorical one. They have no idea if/when/how price will go in short term or long term. If they did, they'd have sold their positions at 60k and bought back at 45k. Anyone is welcome to take a position on anything. I'm not going to tell you when anything is going to crash to zero or even go down or go up to a million. I don't put money into that market so I don't care. If I did, I'd be putting maybe 2% in. Something like that. I'm not criticising anyone other than for giving investment advice with no basis or justification.


If you want to do a momentum play, that's fine too. In and out and bank the winnings. It's your money. You might make a lot doing it.

This will be my last response. By "anything left" I meant dry powder you have set aside for investing. Look, you obviously aren't very knowledgeable about crypto or past Bitcoin cycles. Either educate yourself or use your time more valuably by staying off Crypto related threads. Not telling you what to do, just offering some advice.

Now I remember why I stopped using boards.ie

cnocbui

sparkletooth wrote: »

This will be my last response. By "anything left" I meant dry powder you have set aside for investing. Look, you obviously aren't very knowledgeable about crypto or past Bitcoin cycles. Either educate yourself or use your time more valuably by staying off Crypto related threads. Not telling you what to do, just offering some advice.

Now I remember why I stopped using boards.ie

Stopped from using boards, seems a more likely possibility.

Donald Trump

sparkletooth wrote: »

This will be my last response. By "anything left" I meant dry powder you have set aside for investing. Look, you obviously aren't very knowledgeable about crypto or past Bitcoin cycles. Either educate yourself or use your time more valuably by staying off Crypto related threads. Not telling you what to do, just offering some advice.

Now I remember why I stopped using boards.ie

You're ok. I won't be taking any advice from you. It is funny for you to be telling me to educate myself when you don't seem to have understood the basic 101 questions I asked.



I understand that there are patterns that repeat for your Bitcoin. Halving and peaks blah blah. As I told you, that is backwards looking data. I appreciate you may not understand the relevance of that.

It is behavioural finance rather than any fundamental characteristic which is driving those patterns. People will still make good money because even though they understand what it is, they know that others are going to take the "cycles" as fact and so they can use that information to anticipate the cash flowing in.

Idioteque

It's interesting seeing people coming into this forum and thread of late with either a delight in what they percieve as the demise of Bitcoin/Crypto or just a general 'I'm a serious investor here to chastise you for your poor knowledge'.

I don't get it. Why bother? Few guesses:

1. Traditional investor who makes market average returns with a chip on shoulder as the lesser educated 'gamble' their money and make better returns - now the chickens are coming home to roost so lets throw the boot in

2. Someone burned in a previous bubble (dot com/housing) and is now delighting in seeing others go through what they percieve as a bubble popping

3. Holier than thou attitude, the world is a harmonious loving perfect place but you crypto people are all propping up illicit activities and I'm on a mission to right things and restore the harmony.

4.Fake 'just trying to protect' people attitude. No one in their right mind takes advice from a forum like this on what to do. If you look back at a previous poster in this thread, most people refrained from giving advice and the 1st person that did told them to DTOR. But anyone deciding what to do just off reading this thread with no further research/work is a fool going to be parted with their money one way or another.

Donald Trump

Idioteque wrote: »

It's interesting seeing people coming into this forum and thread of late with either a delight in what they percieve as the demise of Bitcoin/Crypto or just a general 'I'm a serious investor here to chastise you for your poor knowledge'.

I don't get it. Why bother? Few guesses:

1. Traditional investor who makes market average returns with a chip on shoulder as the lesser educated 'gamble' their money and make better returns - now the chickens are coming home to roost so lets throw the boot in

2. Someone burned in a previous bubble (dot com/housing) and is now delighting in seeing others go through what they percieve as a bubble popping

3. Holier than thou attitude, the world is a harmonious loving perfect place but you crypto people are all propping up illicit activities and I'm on a mission to right things and restore the harmony.

4.Fake 'just trying to protect' people attitude. No one in their right mind takes advice from a forum like this on what to do. If you look back at a previous poster in this thread, most people refrained from giving advice and the 1st person that did told them to DTOR. But anyone deciding what to do just off reading this thread with no further research/work is a fool going to be parted with their money one way or another.

You're very paranoid dude. You can do what you like with your own money. I hope you do well with it.

Idioteque

Donald Trump wrote: »

You're very paranoid dude. You can do what you like with your own money. I hope you do well with it.

Pretty much every post you're misinterpreting or misrepresenting what people are saying but anyway, best of luck doing whatever you do with your own money.

Donald Trump

Idioteque wrote: »

Pretty much every post you're misinterpreting or misrepresenting what people are saying but anyway, best of luck doing whatever you do with your own money.

Hold on, I only referred to what one poster advised which was for people to put whatever money they had into "dips" without even indicating what a "dip" was.



You don't need to be so defensive or have a victim mentality. I am only talking investment and risk fundamentals. Which remain the same regardless of the level of any particular market at the current time.


If the market is up you've implied I'm bitter and if the market is down you've implied it's schadenfreude. When in reality I don't really care. I assume that people are at least aware of the maxim "don't put all your eggs into one basket". So whether it jumps up or jumps down will not make a huge difference to any one individual person in the greater scheme of things.


It is extremely dangerous though to base large investment decisions on backwards looking data. There are patterns in other markets which do persist over time, seasonal etc, even though participants are aware of them, but they tend to be relatively small percentages. "large" of course is relative to the person. For one person 10k might be large and for another it might not be. That is up to each person to decide.

seannash

Donald Trump wrote: »

Hold on, I only referred to what one poster advised which was for people to put whatever money they had into "dips" without even indicating what a "dip" was.



You don't need to be so defensive or have a victim mentality. I am only talking investment and risk fundamentals. Which remain the same regardless of the level of any particular market at the current time.


If the market is up you've implied I'm bitter and if the market is down you've implied it's schadenfreude. When in reality I don't really care. I assume that people are at least aware of the maxim "don't put all your eggs into one basket". So whether it jumps up or jumps down will not make a huge difference to any one individual person in the greater scheme of things.


It is extremely dangerous though to base large investment decisions on backwards looking data. There are patterns in other markets which do persist over time, seasonal etc, even though participants are aware of them, but they tend to be relatively small percentages. "large" of course is relative to the person. For one person 10k might be large and for another it might not be. That is up to each person to decide.

Wait til you wander into the ****coin thread.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

You're ok. I won't be taking any advice from you. It is funny for you to be telling me to educate myself when you don't seem to have understood the basic 101 questions I asked.



I understand that there are patterns that repeat for your Bitcoin. Halving and peaks blah blah. As I told you, that is backwards looking data. I appreciate you may not understand the relevance of that.

It is behavioural finance rather than any fundamental characteristic which is driving those patterns. People will still make good money because even though they understand what it is, they know that others are going to take the "cycles" as fact and so they can use that information to anticipate the cash flowing in.

Any chance you wanna drop the attitude. It's as of you came in here picking a fight. Clear the head. Go for a run.

Donald Trump

seannash wrote: »

Wait til you wander into the ****coin thread.

Ah I don't think I'll bother




I was actually kind of surprised that almost all the replies to my posts were virulently negative. I'm only bringing up basic level 101 points.

I could understand if someone tries to say "yeah, well that is for traditional markets but things are different here for X/Y/Z" but instead it seems that people just aren't even aware of those 101s. Which is concerning for themselves and also makes me extra glad I don't dabble in that market.

jimmii

Same every time its red for a few days!

weemcd

BTC just hit 42.5K

Irish_rat

Theta holding very strong on this dip. 5-10x coming in the next two months

Irish_rat

Irish_rat wrote: »

Theta holding very strong on this dip. 5-10x coming in the next two months

What's this mean?

Irish_rat

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What's this mean?

It means get ready. The rush up to mainnet will be big and I expect another very good news release before it happens. Tfuel is very undervalued.

Do you due diligence. I've been called a theta maxi by dirka the great.

bfa1509

Deleted User wrote: »

His posts and manipulation are perfectly fine and absolutely no one using bitcoin should complain about lack of regulation, and if you have a problem with one man making something with a market cap of 835 billion dollars fluctuate by double digit percentages with posts on Twitter, invest in something that has fundamentals.

My brother has lost loads of money the last couple of days and hasn't complained once because he's a grown up who understands what bitcoin is.

Who are you talking to exactly?