Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

L1011 · 16-05-2021 7:57pm

PropQueries wrote: »

My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.

What significant backlog in probate sales?

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 8:03pm

Timing belt wrote: »

On one hand you have over 65 living longer and the other you have them dying and entering probate...logic sounds like a square circle unless I am missing something

Yes. Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO

Cyrus · 16-05-2021 8:04pm

L1011 wrote: »

What significant backlog in probate sales?

There isn't one

IMO

derekgine3 · 16-05-2021 8:04pm

Zenify wrote: »

I've never been to a protest before. I've never been motivated enough, but I'm ready to take to the streets as soon as we are allowed!

Hopefully we can get a movement going because we all know whatever measures they come up with next week will be insufficient.

Right there with you, let's end this madness once and for all.

We have our place paid off years but would gladly see it's value drop 50% if it meant some of our children and grandchildren could purchase with a decent job, work ethic and delayed gratification mindset.

It makes no difference to us as we don't plan to sell, people fixated on price increases on their property are short sighted, they don't realize that if they are not down sizing..the house they want will also cost more.

Let's make our voices heard and get out there people.

Graham · 16-05-2021 8:05pm

PropQueries wrote: »

That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO

Wasn't the waiting time about 2 months at the start of this year? An increase due to covid?

What's your source?

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 8:06pm

L1011 wrote: »

What significant backlog in probate sales?

According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

“Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Cyrus · 16-05-2021 8:07pm

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

“Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Why do you keep quoting Barry Cowen ?

And why are probate sales and passports conflated?

L1011 · 16-05-2021 8:11pm

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

“Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

As pointed out to you previously, this does not actually back up your claims.

Stop misrepresenting it.

Graham · 16-05-2021 8:13pm

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Barry Cowen in 2018:

“Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

One would assume it’s bigger now with Covid delays (similar to re. Passports).

Link here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Your assumption would be incorrect by the looks of it

Updates & Changes to Probate Procedures - January 2021

Waiting times for Probate applications

The waiting times for applications is presently running between eight to ten weeks.

Source: The Courts Service

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 8:18pm

Graham wrote: »

Your assumption would be incorrect by the looks of it

Source: The Courts Service

As I said:

“Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

Very soon.

Mad_maxx · 16-05-2021 8:19pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, all I know is that of the c. 180k population increase between 2011 and 2016, c.100k was due to an increase in people living longer i.e. the over 65s and not in need of housing.

We also had significant negative net inward migration over that period and still had a ‘housing shortage’ despite the significant oversupply from the boom years. We still haven’t breached 5 million today as far as I know.

I’ll go with my gut instinct and the official data and guesstimate there is no housing shortage and given that the funds purchased c. €200 billion in distressed banking assets between 2012 and 2016, that they will begin offloading in bulk this year and we’ll begin to see how much of that vacant property they really do own.

I think anyone inside and outside Dublin can see, as I have, how much vacant property there really is at the moment IMO

My thinking would also be that that significant backlog in probate sales (and it’s significant IMO) will begin to re-enter the market in the next few months and resolve all housing problems IMO.

a lot more than a white rabbit in that hat

Graham · 16-05-2021 8:22pm

PropQueries wrote: »

As I said:

“Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

Very soon.

Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?

Sierra Oscar · 16-05-2021 8:27pm

Sarn wrote: »

I was just about to post similar. Population in Ireland has increased by about 700k since 2006.

With the population hitting 6m by 2040. 25% increase. The demand issue ain't going away for a long time.

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 8:33pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

With the population hitting 6m by 2040. 25% increase. The demand issue ain't going away for a long time.

Big increase. All based upon net inward migration being c. 30,000 per year despite the fact it was negative just c. 6 years ago,

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 8:37pm

Graham wrote: »

Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?

Well done on them clearing the backlog and it should free up thousands of potential homes for FTBs in prime locations in our cities and towns over the coming months should they keep that timeframe down from the 2018 figures:

In 2018:

“In Dublin the average for a solicitor application is 17 weeks, in Galway and Cork it is 16 weeks, in Sligo and Limerick it is 12 weeks and in Waterford it is 10 weeks.”

As I said:

“Life expectancy for those over the age of 65 plateaued about 2 years ago. That with the states backlog in processing such probates has resulted in a significant backlog of such properties re-entering the market which should be cleared very soon IMO“

Very soon.

L1011 · 16-05-2021 8:50pm

I don't think you actually understand what you're reading or saying there.

There is no backlog to be released, and even if there was it would only just push the same properties on to the market a few weeks earlier.

There are no quick little fixes to happen "very soon", every one you think there is based on a misunderstanding of the basic principles.

mcsean2163 · 16-05-2021 9:10pm

Graham wrote: »

Backlog according to the Court Service is "eight to ten weeks".

Have you a source that suggests otherwise (recent)?

My experience with the courts this year has been glacial. Your source was January 2021, it is may now and we're only just emerging from level 5 lockdown.

<MOD SNIP>

ongarite · 16-05-2021 9:17pm

Net emigration is very unlikely in the near term in this COVID world which will put further pressure on the housing shortage.

All the English speaking places that Irish went to have closed borders until late 2022/23 (Australia, NZ and Canada) or aren't as attractive as they once were (UK).
There is the rest of the EU bloc but generally Irish people have been reluctant to relocate Germany, France, Belgium or Netherlands.

Pussyhands · 16-05-2021 9:31pm

I'm looking to buy an apartment.

Can anyone give me tips on what I should be looking for/asking for in a viewing?

I've seen listed management fees range from 500-1500.

Graham · 16-05-2021 9:31pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

My experience with the courts this year has been glacial. Your source was January 2021, it is may now and we're only just emerging from level 5 lockdown.

Personal applications that require a personal application interview and signing of oath obviously not proceeding during lockdown.

Solicitor applications being processed.

That suggests there could be a delay of up-to about 6 months for personal applications (my rough estimate). Certainly not enough to significantly move the needle in the context of a property market that has been partially suspended for the period anyway.

There's certainly no indication a few-years of supply suddenly going to drop.

PropQueries · 16-05-2021 9:57pm

Graham wrote: »

Personal applications that require a personal application interview and signing of oath obviously not proceeding during lockdown.

Solicitor applications being processed.

That suggests there could be a delay of up-to about 6 months for personal applications (my rough estimate). Certainly not enough to significantly move the needle in the context of a property market that has been partially suspended for the period anyway.

There's certainly no indication a few-years of supply suddenly going to drop.

Well, if life expectancy in the over 65s increased by c. 4 years between 2000 and 2018 and plateaued in 2018 and combined with the pre-covid backlog and the obvious probate delays during covid, there may be a significant number (in the tens of thousands in prime locations IMO) of probate related properties about to re-enter the market in one form or other (sale or rent) over the next several months IMO

L1011 · 16-05-2021 10:02pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if life expectancy in the over 65s increased by c. 4 years between 2000 and 2018 and plateaued in 2018 and combined with the pre-covid backlog and the obvious probate delays during covid, there may be a significant number (in the tens of thousands in prime locations IMO) of probate related properties about to re-enter the market in one form or other (sale or rent) over the next several months IMO

Your numbers don't make any sense.

"IMO" does not make nonsensical statements immune from being torn apart.

Graham · 16-05-2021 10:19pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if life expectancy in the over 65s ......

It would be an average NOT a XX,000 properties go on sale on the anniversary of the publication of life expectancy figures.

If anything, life expectancy increases would result in an increase in demand. i.e. people needing to be housed for longer.

Your hypothesis pretty much fails on every level as well as being unsupported by any current authoritative source.

John1648 · 16-05-2021 10:30pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I think Dublin residential property market is a good place to invest savings, if you don't have your own business. Although it's not for everyone, and problem with tenants might be a major issue.
But I think you calculation is not right for final profits. If Rental is not main source of income, I guess you would NOT get allowance of 1,650.
Your "Overall Profit" still likely to be taxed in country of residence as an Income, Profit or Dividend rate.

Problem with tenants? You mean it may be difficult to find a tenant to rent a 1 bedroom apartment for 1400 EUR per month? Or finding a solvent, dilligent tenant?

Re the taxation - indeed, for a while, renting will be the main source of income. So the allowance of 1650 will be applicable.

Marcusm · 16-05-2021 11:01pm

L1011 wrote: »

Your numbers don't make any sense.

"IMO" does not make nonsensical statements immune from being torn apart.

I;d agree that there was no rationality in the other poster's basis. However, there has been a level of "excess deaths"in Ireland since the onset of COVID-19 although this has been estimated to be less than half of the deaths allocated to COVID. Given that 91% of the COVID deaths have been in the over 65s, it is natural to assume that, to an extent, there will have been a number of elderly/living alone deaths which may result in additional houses on the market. Personally, I suspect these will be statistically insignificant.

Marius34 · 16-05-2021 11:06pm

John1648 wrote: »

Problem with tenants? You mean it may be difficult to find a tenant to rent a 1 bedroom apartment for 1400 EUR per month? Or finding a solvent, dilligent tenant?

Re the taxation - indeed, for a while, renting will be the main source of income. So the allowance of 1650 will be applicable.

It's more about finding good and solvent tenants, that would pay, and not destroy the place.
if your main worldwide income comes from Rent, probably you are right on 1650 allowance.

Graham · 16-05-2021 11:06pm

Marcusm wrote: »

I suspect these will be statistically insignificant.

This

Bass Reeves · 16-05-2021 11:07pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if life expectancy in the over 65s increased by c. 4 years between 2000 and 2018 and plateaued in 2018 and combined with the pre-covid backlog and the obvious probate delays during covid, there may be a significant number (in the tens of thousands in prime locations IMO) of probate related properties about to re-enter the market in one form or other (sale or rent) over the next several months IMO

Props once again you have take a statistic and used it to pick a bit of information out of your ar5e.

On the increase in life expectancy on the over 65's it has mostly been an extension of lifespan by men. Women life expectancy has not significantly increased. In general in marital situations men will be older than women by at least a couple of years on average. In most situations women outlive men. Because there life expectancy has not increased significantly there is little or no effect in the short or medium term.
I forgot IMO.

You have a bee in your bonnet about probate but its immaterial. In most cases at the reading of a will the information regarding what is happening with a house is decided. Probate dose not prevent a house being put up for sale or being rented. If Johnny the son or nephew is left the house if he is going to sell it he can put it up for sale. Awaiting probate dose not effect this. Unless probate exceeds the sales time period is it a problem. It seldom dose I have hard of a few sales awaiting probate but not many. It's really only an issue if you are selling at auction. Most houses sell by private treaty.

I forgot again IMO

I see sheep · 16-05-2021 11:08pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm looking to buy an apartment.

Can anyone give me tips on what I should be looking for/asking for in a viewing?

I've seen listed management fees range from 500-1500.

I wouldn't buy an apartment in Ireland or GB tbh, most I've lived in are not well built and require constant fixing, even very expensive ones.

John1648 · 17-05-2021 7:05am

I see sheep wrote: »

I wouldn't buy an apartment in Ireland or GB tbh, most I've lived in are not well built and require constant fixing, even very expensive ones.

Well, I have looked at many markets. Dublin offers the highest yield for rentals, of 7% net (9% gross), which is unheard of everywhere else.

Oh, the same is in Maldives e.g., in Male, but is too far away to manage.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting