2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Hubertj · 13-05-2021 05:10PM

yagan wrote: »

Varadkar projects a lot onto SF, and an awful lot of the land under development now was NAMA anyway.

He's scrapping the barrel.

Agreed. Doherty is talking through his hole 75% of the time but the government doesn’t have a leg to stand on anyway.

Amadan Dubh · 13-05-2021 05:13PM

With the covid news getting less prominent day by day (it appears there have been 0 deaths which have actually occurred in May, from my reading of the daily Journal.ie articles), there is going to be nothing to crowd out the housing crisis in the news, unless the government had the gall to try to paint the economic recovery post-covid, with increased GDP and the inevitable further rent and house price increases, as an opportunity to tax the people more in order to start to pay for the covid borrowing. It looks like housing is front and centre by itself for the foreseeable future, but I think it will probably bring down the government this year.

yagan · 13-05-2021 05:19PM

<SNIP>

Mod Note

take it to the conspiracy theory forum please.

Do not reply to this post.

Amadan Dubh · 13-05-2021 05:35PM

Another retailer on the main shopping street of the capital bites the dust (Carphone Warehouse last month).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tommy-hilfiger-on-grafton-street-to-close-permanently-1.4564343

Tommy Hilfiger on Grafton Street to close permanently

US fashion retailer exercises break option in lease 12 months early and pays €1.7m rent due

Contacted for comment on Tommy Hilfiger’s decision to vacate its Grafton Street premises, a spokesperson for the retailer said: “In line with our strategic objective to further reach and engage with our consumers, we are focusing on next-generation retail experiences to stay ahead of continuously-changing shopping behaviours."

Although 13-14 Grafton Street will be expected to attract interest from a number of prospective occupiers following Tommy Hilfiger’s departure, the rent achievable for the property is likely to be significantly lower than that agreed at the height of the boom.

In January of this year, Hugo Boss secured a 24 per cent reduction on its previous rent of €825,000, when it signed a new 10-year lease on its own flagship premises at 67/68 Grafton Street.

PropQueries · 13-05-2021 05:36PM

DubCount wrote: »

That is the real issue. Its easy to promise everything to everybody when you are in opposition and dont have to pay for it. Building social housing, housing subsidies to ensure "affordable" housing (whatever that means), and all the other promises cost real money.

The "let the rich people pay" approach just doesnt work, as there are not enough Millionaires to fleece, and they're probably well able to move to a different country if we try to stick the knife in too deep. More tax on working families or cuts to social welfare/services is the real way this is paid for - and thats just not a message you want to state when you're trying to be popular.

As for the "ban evictions" brigade, this kind of action only reduces supply and panders to the "wont pay" merchants.

If there was an easy answer, someone would have done it already.

I think the Government collected c. €80 Billion in 2019 (the only comparable year). Below is the link to the "Social Welfare" budget.

I would be interested in anybody explaining to me on what they would cut there that would even come close to plugging that IMF potential predicted €6 Billion annual hole from the international tax reforms? And, remember, people pay PRSI for a reason.

I would think looking at the whole €80 Billion to see where real cuts could be made would be a better starting point IMO

We also had an unemployment rate of less than 5% in 2019, which from what I remember was called below full employment many years ago. And, no matter what a persons viewpoint is on social housing, they still need to be housed.

Link to 2019 welfare spend here: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/2019/

MacronvFrugals · 13-05-2021 05:45PM

ElektroToad wrote: »

Totally agree with what you are saying. Voting SF carries with it potential that they will implement a number of nonsense policies that wouldn't be in my (or the country's) best interest at all. Especially if they end up bringing the looney left onboard to form a majority

But I'd think you'd also agree that housing is a very important, personal and emotive issue, hence why I figure more voters are gonna take a punt on SF regardless

But I digress...

In the meantime, I'll keep looking at daft.ie and wonder is it only a matter of time before we are looking at 400k+ for a 3-bed in Darndale? :pac:

I'm mid 20s and extremely lucky to be earning 65k working in tech, if people like me aren't voting FF/FG then who will? They have a serious problem looming with the 18-35s if the polls and bookies are to be believed.

As an aside too many (mostly) young people have been left behind as they're not connected to the FDI tax haven parts of the economy, this will eventually come home to roost!

yagan · 13-05-2021 05:46PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It looks like housing is front and centre by itself for the foreseeable future, but I think it will probably bring down the government this year.

It's almost like the pandemic was a detour and we're right back to the pre election issues, including a vastly longer hospital waiting queue!

combat14 · 13-05-2021 05:58PM

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp

looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???

i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

AlmightyCushion · 13-05-2021 06:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Well, their own housing spokesperson opposed a social housing development for a start. If Sinn Fein want council land to be be built on by the council instead of private developers then why didn't they do that when they were the largest party in DCC? Also, my understanding is that the developer buys the land, builds on it, and some of the houses go to the council and affordable housing schemes. It might not be perfect but it doesn't sound like a bad idea and the alternative is that the site stays empty and nothing gets build there.

Then there are the private developments on land owned by the developer that councillors are opposing to appease the NIMBYs.

Marius34 · 13-05-2021 06:06PM

combat14 wrote: »

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp

looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???

i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

As situation is very different from credit crisis, this time I would be more worried for the people not being able to buy property.

yagan · 13-05-2021 06:25PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Well, their own housing spokesperson opposed a social housing development for a start. If Sinn Fein want council land to be be built on by the council instead of private developers then why didn't they do that when they were the largest party in DCC? Also, my understanding is that the developer buys the land, builds on it, and some of the houses go to the council and affordable housing schemes. It might not be perfect but it doesn't sound like a bad idea and the alternative is that the site stays empty and nothing gets build there.

Then there are the private developments on land owned by the developer that councillors are opposing to appease the NIMBYs.

There were social housing caveats for developers during the bubble years but rather than mixing the developer would stick the social housing element in some far flung corner of the site, or on a completely separate plot so as not diminish their private sales.

As the banks were giving everyone loans beyond their means many developers simply gave up pretending and simply didn't bother as no one was chasing them on it at the time.

I can't remember which development it was on the docks but the developer got away with putting the social housing element over 5Km away on another site.

L1011 · 13-05-2021 06:30PM

Capital Docks social element was supplied at a Clancy Quay by consent of the council as the units are much cheaper there

The Tiger era thing was to buy the requirement out for cash instead. That isn't allowed now.

combat14 · 13-05-2021 06:34PM

Marius34 wrote: »

As situation is very different from credit crisis, this time I would be more worried for the people not being able to buy property.

well if that persists many of them will just leave the country or else there will eventually be civil unrest here

cnocbui · 13-05-2021 06:37PM

combat14 wrote: »

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp

looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???

i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

The same IMF that's urging one of the most indebted states in the OECD, to borrow lots more money and to increase tax on workers to fund social housing, despite them already being heavily taxed in order counter the very low corporate tax.

fliball123 · 13-05-2021 06:41PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I'm mid 20s and extremely lucky to be earning 65k working in tech, if people like me aren't voting FF/FG then who will? They have a serious problem looming with the 18-35s if the polls and bookies are to be believed.

As an aside too many (mostly) young people have been left behind as they're not connected to the FDI tax haven parts of the economy, this will eventually come home to roost!

I think you will learn are you go on in your life that they are all the same the problem isnt who wont vote for them. Its there is no alternative as politicians do not have to be held to their word. We hear the argument but they will be voted out in 4 years time , yes they may well be but they will get some other job within government such as on the councils, seanad, etc. Its very rare for a politician just to leave politics after they are voted out of power and of course they walk away with a handsome pension. So they can spend 4 years screwing us over breaking promises (USC temporary tax anyone) and walk away with more money than the average Joe could ever dream about. Until this changes nothing will. Sinn Fein are waffling about what they will do. Ever notice its rare they bring numbers in and no politician thinks about the knock on consequences to a decision they make and the income tax payer always gets it in the neck

mcsean2163 · 13-05-2021 06:49PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where?

We'd be in a position where the government and funds could not buy the Airbnb houses and competition between FTBs, government and funds would have been even more fierce and invisible due to covid19.

Timing belt · 13-05-2021 06:52PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Well, their own housing spokesperson opposed a social housing development for a start. If Sinn Fein want council land to be be built on by the council instead of private developers then why didn't they do that when they were the largest party in DCC? Also, my understanding is that the developer buys the land, builds on it, and some of the houses go to the council and affordable housing schemes. It might not be perfect but it doesn't sound like a bad idea and the alternative is that the site stays empty and nothing gets build there.

Then there are the private developments on land owned by the developer that councillors are opposing to appease the NIMBYs.

Who approves the long term leases? Is it DCC or the government?

The reason for asking is that if it is DCC then FF/FG only have 20 councilors elected to DCC so some of the other 43 councilors must be approving it. If a majority is required then another 12 councilors must have approved it.

derekgine3 · 13-05-2021 07:17PM

ElektroToad wrote: »

Past that point. Plenty in my generation are fed up being forgotten about on this area.

I'll be very very tempted taking the nuclear option and voting SF.

FG had over a decade to make it easier for young professionals like myself to afford a house or half decent apartment. I'd feel like a f***ing idiot to vote for them again unless they manage to pull a miracle within the next 3 years

Plenty in my circle in their 40's and 50's would be life long FFFG voters and have seen their "wealth" rise from their policies but will be voting for SF and other parties such as Aontu, Irish freedom, national party, etc in next election as a last resort to fix this housing crisis.

Why would do they do that? Because their kids are either living at home well into their 30's, being absolute destroyed by high rent or the ones who do get a mortgage are borrowing their life away for property that is subpar and an absolute rip off.

Browney7 · 13-05-2021 07:54PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Who approves the long term leases? Is it DCC or the government?

The reason for asking is that if it is DCC then FF/FG only have 20 councilors elected to DCC so some of the other 43 councilors must be approving it. If a majority is required then another 12 councilors must have approved it.

Presumably the head of housing delivery. Don't the councillors just approve the centrally allocated budget and have very little power?

Cal4567 · 13-05-2021 08:51PM

Unless someone can advise otherwise, I believe that is what happens but the Dept of Housing also have to sign this off. Councillors only approve the overall budget.

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 09:11PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

Plenty in my circle in their 40's and 50's would be life long FFFG voters and have seen their "wealth" rise from their policies but will be voting for SF and other parties such as Aontu, Irish freedom, national party, etc in next election as a last resort to fix this housing crisis.

Why would do they do that? Because their kids are either living at home well into their 30's, being absolute destroyed by high rent or the ones who do get a mortgage are borrowing their life away for property that is subpar and an absolute rip off.

Better late than never, I suppose.

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 09:29PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

With the covid news getting less prominent day by day (it appears there have been 0 deaths which have actually occurred in May, from my reading of the daily Journal.ie articles), there is going to be nothing to crowd out the housing crisis in the news, unless the government had the gall to try to paint the economic recovery post-covid, with increased GDP and the inevitable further rent and house price increases, as an opportunity to tax the people more in order to start to pay for the covid borrowing. It looks like housing is front and centre by itself for the foreseeable future, but I think it will probably bring down the government this year.

When the average commenter on the Journal.ie is not swallowing propaganda hook, line and sinker, something is genuinely out of sync. Encouraging sign to see...

I could certainly see a general election this year, but what would come of it? SF majority? What can he government even really do? To me, the state itself is systemically broken, and unless the next incumbent government plans to clear out the civil service, I don't see change happening in any noticeable way.

Graham · 13-05-2021 09:45PM

Mod Note

final friendly reminder - please take the politics chat to the appropriate forum.

Bass Reeves · 13-05-2021 10:02PM

Finance Ireland 30% owned by Stragetic investment fund is going to offer 20 year fixed rate Mortgages rates seem fairy compedetive. As your LTV ratio ncreases the loan rate will reduce

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0513/1221325-finance-ireland-mortgages/

It will give great stability to some borrowers. They also offer 10 and 15 year fixed rate loans

Timing belt · 13-05-2021 10:24PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Finance Ireland 30% owned by Stragetic investment fund is going to offer 20 year fixed rate Mortgages rates seem fairy compedetive. As your LTV ratio ncreases the loan rate will reduce

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0513/1221325-finance-ireland-mortgages/

It will give great stability to some borrowers. They also offer 10 and 15 year fixed rate loans

That's an interesting development and will be interesting if other funds follow and provide more competition to the banks. I assume the business model will all be about the guaranteed cash flow from the repayments and the ability to package it up and sell it on. The only drawback for the consumer would be not having the ability to repay early. I'm sure if other funds follow it will put the spot light on shadow banking and regulation to manage the systematic risk that these funds will have on the economy.

AlmightyCushion · 13-05-2021 10:34PM

Timing belt wrote: »

That's an interesting development and will be interesting if other funds follow and provide more competition to the banks. I assume the business model will all be about the guaranteed cash flow from the repayments and the ability to package it up and sell it on. The only drawback for the consumer would be not having the ability to repay early. I'm sure if other funds follow it will put the spot light on shadow banking and regulation to manage the systematic risk that these funds will have on the economy.

According to this they let you overpay 20% of the balance in any 12 month period. That's pretty good.

https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threads/understanding-fixed-rates-breakage-costs.204427/

Amadan Dubh · 13-05-2021 10:59PM

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ballycasheen-killarney-kerry-v93c58a/4500285

€425,000 for this McMansion named "Anfield Manor" due to the former owner's love for Liverpool FC; rapscallion that he is! MyHome describe it as a "fine house" and a "family home".

However...

https://extra.ie/2021/05/13/business/property/kerry-manor-e425k-cab-seizure

It would be great if CAB could be responsible for evictions of non-paying tenants as well in the normal rental market as it took three weeks to seize it and get it on the market!

Hubertj · 14-05-2021 07:08AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ballycasheen-killarney-kerry-v93c58a/4500285

€425,000 for this McMansion named "Anfield Manor" due to the former owner's love for Liverpool FC; rapscallion that he is! MyHome describe it as a "fine house" and a "family home".

However...

https://extra.ie/2021/05/13/business/property/kerry-manor-e425k-cab-seizure

It would be great if CAB could be responsible for evictions of non-paying tenants as well in the normal rental market as it took three weeks to seize it and get it on the market!

Quality job on the tarmacing and paving front and back. I would prefer a garden though.

Amadan Dubh · 14-05-2021 07:13AM

Hubertj wrote: »

Quality job on the tarmacing and paving front and back. I would prefer a garden though.

I think they only do a good job on tarmacing when it applies to their own homes!

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/crime/kerry-dad-whose-home-seized-23964851

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/palatial-kerry-home-seized-from-man-under-investigation-for-preying-on-vulnerable-1.4545093

It would be a brave person to take that place over and love their family in!

Cal4567 · 14-05-2021 07:57AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/how-do-opposition-party-policies-on-housing-stack-up-1.4564584

It's basically what SF will do once in power. It's not that critical either - it doesn't have the usual 'experts', such as lobbyists for institutional investors or estate agents to spoil the narrative. I list below an insert which details issues that may prove challenging but are not totally insurmountable, if there is the political will. The most interesting is bringing in leasehold houses which I take it would mean 99 or 150 leases, proper leases, not these made up thingies that have been thought up on the back of a fag packet by someone in Custom House.

Experts who spoke to The Irish Times said that while the policies are ambitious, there are many pitfalls and potential problems.

They can be summarised as follows:

Building from scratch can be slower, riskier and more complicated for local authorities and housing bodies for a whole variety of complicated reasons in comparison to buying from developers;

Using local authorities as developers carries huge risk;

The level of public land differs depending on the local authority;

There is often debt attached to State land although experts differ on how significant an issue this is;

Substantially higher subsidies would be needed for affordable housing developments on State lands in urban areas which could also fall foul of EU state aid rules;

High density units such as apartment blocks are much more expensive at a time when many people on social housing lists are single or lone parents;

Building costs are also considered to be still too high.

All of these complex problems present major stumbling blocks to the plans, they say.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1