2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Browney7

JimmyVik wrote: »

And they are selling. But worse, there are no ordinary investors entering the market now. Its only REITs and councils on the government tit. And they arent interesting in sucking on smaller tits than the government funded ones.

Investors like these are a good example of this http://www.doublepropertygroup.ie/projects/

No shiny new multistory googleplex apartments, just bog standard tiger developments all leased to councils AHB's and underwritten by the department of housing

jill_valentine

thomas 123 wrote: »

Twice in two days in the dail it has been mentioned that homelessness has reduced.

Are those living with parents into their 30’s considered homeless? (No)

Do we have any figures on how many people co habit with parents/family vs other years in the past?

If the vast majority of homes purchases in Ireland are bought on a buy to rent basis this housing crisis must be many many magnitudes greater than I or others ever thought.

Indeed. Doesn't take into account people moving home temporarily or long term during the pandemic, the eviction moratorium, or the effects of both on wider rental demand (ie landlords more amenable to HAP etc) either.

FFFG are essentially trying to claim Covid's credit. And even then it's not as massive a reduction as we would expect to see, there is a literal global virus disaster and it only made the number of homeless families wobble. The underlying issues then remain unchanged.

Villa05

thomas 123 wrote:

Twice in two days in the dail it has been mentioned that homelessness has reduced.

In theory homelessness has reduced but only because of the pandemic. It was rising prior to covid

cnocbui

thomas 123 wrote: »

Twice in two days in the dail it has been mentioned that homelessness has reduced.

Are those living with parents into their 30’s considered homeless? (No)

Do we have any figures on how many people co habit with parents/family vs other years in the past?

If the vast majority of homes purchased in Ireland are bought on a buy to rent basis this housing crisis must be many many magnitudes greater than I or others ever thought.

460,000 adults still living with their parents in 2018.

Villa05

Watched Claire Byrne on the rte player last night after speaking to neighbour who was very annoyed about the content on investment funds

The junior minister for housing was on it and the usual legacy issues were mentioned for the slow pace of action. Not sure what that does for the working relation ship between an Fg senior and Fg junior minister

Now the junior min came across poor in the show but some snippets

When asked why we didn't start building more in 2014 when supply was forecast to be an issue
He said the state has to borrow at 14% and could not do more

This of course is BS and he wasn't pressed on it by Claire. I got my mortgage in 2014 at a variable rate of 4.2% the state was definitely borrowing for less than that rate
The issue at the time was that developers were charged 14% by entirely state controlled banks for any building projects.
Now one would have to ask why and consider was the state blocking any competition in the process of offloading NAMA assets

Another revelation is that the minister stated that currently 60% of new builds are for social housing so I suspect that most of this investment fund activity is being underwritten by the state in the form of long term leasing and the most expensive new build housing in the country is in fact social housing.
This of course will take our bubble to heights never seen before

mcsean2163

JimmyVik wrote: »

Yeah it kind of smacks of the same people who said that making AirBnB illegal would bring so many properties onto the rental market that they would force rents down. Turns out most of them either sold to the council or rented to the council afterwards.

Imagine where we'd be if that didn't happen...

JimmyVik

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Imagine where we'd be if that didn't happen...

Where?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Watched Claire Byrne on the rte player last night after speaking to neighbour who was very annoyed about the content on investment funds

The junior minister for housing was on it and the usual legacy issues were mentioned for the slow pace of action. Not sure what that does for the working relation ship between an Fg senior and Fg junior minister

Now the junior min came across poor in the show but some snippets

When asked why we didn't start building more in 2014 when supply was forecast to be an issue
He said the state has to borrow at 14% and could not do more

This of course is BS and he wasn't pressed on it by Claire. I got my mortgage in 2014 at a variable rate of 4.2% the state was definitely borrowing for less than that rate
The issue at the time was that developers were charged 14% by entirely state controlled banks for any building projects.
Now one would have to ask why and consider was the state blocking any competition in the process of offloading NAMA assets

Another revelation is that the minister stated that currently 60% of new builds are for social housing so I suspect that most of this investment fund activity is being underwritten by the state in the form of long term leasing and the most expensive new build housing in the country is in fact social housing.
This of course will take our bubble to heights never seen before

What was our capacity to build in 2014? How many houses could we build per year vs how many we actually built?

AdamD

Anyone else been looking at the property market and not noticed any increase in supply at all, even as restrictions have loosened? Thought it would have picked up even a little bit by now

derekgine3

AdamD wrote: »

Anyone else been looking at the property market and not noticed any increase in supply at all, even as restrictions have loosened? Thought it would have picked up even a little bit by now

Saw a major uptick in North Dublin 1-3 weeks ago but now that restrictions have been lifted it's been eerily quiet, which is odd.

fliball123

derekgine3 wrote: »

Saw a major uptick in North Dublin 1-3 weeks ago but now that restrictions have been lifted it's been eerily quiet, which is odd.

Even when things lift there will not be the resurgent of properties people think. People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy, personally and I would hazard a guess anyone with a family or other commitments will not put their property up for sale until they have found one they like themselves.

derekgine3

fliball123 wrote: »

Even when things lift there will not be the resurgent of properties people think. People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy, personally and I would hazard a guess anyone with a family or other commitments will not put their property up for sale until they have found one they like themselves.

Leaning towards hogwash with that post. I fully expect a flood of second hand properties to hit the market once the majority of the population are vaccinated.

Amadan Dubh

Villa05 wrote: »

Watched Claire Byrne on the rte player last night after speaking to neighbour who was very annoyed about the content on investment funds

The junior minister for housing was on it and the usual legacy issues were mentioned for the slow pace of action. Not sure what that does for the working relation ship between an Fg senior and Fg junior minister

Now the junior min came across poor in the show but some snippets

When asked why we didn't start building more in 2014 when supply was forecast to be an issue
He said the state has to borrow at 14% and could not do more

This of course is BS and he wasn't pressed on it by Claire. I got my mortgage in 2014 at a variable rate of 4.2% the state was definitely borrowing for less than that rate
The issue at the time was that developers were charged 14% by entirely state controlled banks for any building projects.
Now one would have to ask why and consider was the state blocking any competition in the process of offloading NAMA assets

Another revelation is that the minister stated that currently 60% of new builds are for social housing so I suspect that most of this investment fund activity is being underwritten by the state in the form of long term leasing and the most expensive new build housing in the country is in fact social housing.
This of course will take our bubble to heights never seen before

Same as before - cheap and readily available money has found its way into property to create another property bubble, abetted by government policy.

It's quite obvious that the economic "growth" the past few years has been isolated to certain sectors (e.g. property); no income tax/USC reform, little to no infrastructure development, education spending pitifully increased, yet property prices are booming - why and how is property booming while the government is struggling to support society as a whole? The policies which have lead to so much cash sloshing around the property market need to be reformed to get it out and back into the wider economy. Taxing institutionals a premium for doing business here would be a great start.

fliball123

derekgine3 wrote: »

Leaning towards hogwash with that post. I fully expect a flood of second hand properties to hit the market once the majority of the population are vaccinated.

The majority got back to work twice last year and guess what it didnt happen and people who were receiving pup is going down on a weekly basis. So while there will be some extra properties coming onto the 2nd hand market it is going to take a long time for this flood that your looking for. Anyone looking in this market and who has a house is going to hold off putting their house up until they find a property they want and until more properties come on stream meaning things will stagnate for longer than people think. Sure no point in arguing we will see when the country opens up and see who was right or wrong

RichardAnd

fliball123 wrote: »

Even when things lift there will not be the resurgent of properties people think. People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy, personally and I would hazard a guess anyone with a family or other commitments will not put their property up for sale until they have found one they like themselves.

12705 properties are up for sale on myHome.ie right now, which is creeping upwards all the time.

However, your point is valid that one house for sale usually means another will be sought by the owner of the former.

However, I hear that legislation to tackle investment funds will be going before the Dail next week. I guess that means that prices will begin to fall shortly. If anyone believes that, PM me; I have some magic beans that you will love!

derekgine3

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

cnocbui

derekgine3 wrote: »

Leaning towards hogwash with that post. I fully expect a flood of second hand properties to hit the market once the majority of the population are vaccinated.

I hope to put my house up, but it won't be until international border entries are possible, so maybe next year.

selassie

Nearly 2/3rds of all households earn less than 60k a year. Our young people are low skilled and have low wages that have stagnated.

I actually would be in favour of all these vulture/cuckoo funds if the price of housing to buy and rent wasn't kept so artificially high from the government on one side and them on the other.

RichardAnd

derekgine3 wrote: »

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

What were the average figures back in the boom days? My parents' house was valued at 700k in 2007, as I recall. It would be valued at about 500k now, but of course would sell for more due to mad bidding were it to be put on the market.

MacronvFrugals

Genuine question, how are all these AirBnb units still viable during Covid?



https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1392597276506341378?s=20

timmyntc

RichardAnd wrote: »

What were the average figures back in the boom days? My parents' house was valued at 700k in 2007, as I recall. It would be valued at about 500k now, but of course would sell for more due to mad bidding were it to be put on the market.

The difference between now and boom days is that in boom time everyone and their mother was being offered massive mortgages - thats how prices got so high in the first place.

This time round there are lending limits on mortgages, but prices keep on rising. Back then the only downside was that people were taking on far more debt than they could pay back.
This time they cannot even take on enough debt to afford a house. There is something seriously wrong with that.

RichardAnd

timmyntc wrote: »

The difference between now and boom days is that in boom time everyone and their mother was being offered massive mortgages - thats how prices got so high in the first place.

This time round there are lending limits on mortgages, but prices keep on rising. Back then the only downside was that people were taking on far more debt than they could pay back.
This time they cannot even take on enough debt to afford a house. There is something seriously wrong with that.

I was only 20 or so when the Celtic Tiger came to an end, so I didn't experience that particular era myself. I see what you're saying though. Apples and oranges, I suppose.

Reversal

AdamD wrote: »

Anyone else been looking at the property market and not noticed any increase in supply at all, even as restrictions have loosened? Thought it would have picked up even a little bit by now

Honestly, I really have noticed an uptick, my search alert for areas south of the liffey was giving less than 5 a week since the start of the year. 7-8 a day now since last week.

And actual 3 bed semis that you would consider appearing again now. All spring it had just been mid terrace ex council gaffs in dire need of rescue and renovation. Seeing less craazy asking prices too.

Eclectic Econometrics

I have been following this thread for what seems like years.

I cannot post links but Google "People are panic buying homes as prices skyrocket around the world". There is a decent CNN article to read on this topic.

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Genuine question, how are all these AirBnb units still viable during Covid?



https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1392597276506341378?s=20

I guess most of them didn't get sold or rented to the council after all. Or if they did, no shortage of new ones to take their place.

InsideAirbnb reckons there are 4663 entire unit Airbnb listings in Co Dublin.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy

You keep on repeating this but it is not true. Not everyone selling a property will be buying another one

RichardAnd

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have been following this thread for what seems like years.

I cannot post links but Google "People are panic buying homes as prices skyrocket around the world". There is a decent CNN article to read on this topic.

https://whdh.com/news/people-are-panic-buying-homes-as-prices-skyrocket-around-the-world/

This one?

Eclectic Econometrics

RichardAnd wrote: »

This one?

Yes, that's the one.

The estate agent saying he heard 3rd hand that people have paid £10,000 just to view a house sounds like porkies but then again I wouldn't bet my life against the fact that it happened.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I guess most of them didn't get sold or rented to the council after all. Or if they did, no shortage of new ones to take their place.

InsideAirbnb reckons there are 4663 entire unit Airbnb listings in Co Dublin.

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

You can let out your home on short terms lets (whether airbnb or not makes no difference) for up to 90 days in a year, with bookings only in 14 day blocks.

If you want to do more than 90 days in short term lets, including airbnb, you have to apply for planning, which will be a big fat no in urban areas. The fines if you're caught are pretty big

I know that in London, airbnb automatically take down the listing once its been booked for 90 days, and you have to provide proof of permission from the local council to get it back up....dont know if they do that here

So your friend is grand, but he is required to register with the local council