2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 02:40PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Even when things lift there will not be the resurgent of properties people think. People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy, personally and I would hazard a guess anyone with a family or other commitments will not put their property up for sale until they have found one they like themselves.

12705 properties are up for sale on myHome.ie right now, which is creeping upwards all the time.

However, your point is valid that one house for sale usually means another will be sought by the owner of the former.

However, I hear that legislation to tackle investment funds will be going before the Dail next week. I guess that means that prices will begin to fall shortly. If anyone believes that, PM me; I have some magic beans that you will love!

derekgine3 · 13-05-2021 02:47PM

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

cnocbui · 13-05-2021 02:52PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

Leaning towards hogwash with that post. I fully expect a flood of second hand properties to hit the market once the majority of the population are vaccinated.

I hope to put my house up, but it won't be until international border entries are possible, so maybe next year.

selassie · 13-05-2021 02:56PM

Nearly 2/3rds of all households earn less than 60k a year. Our young people are low skilled and have low wages that have stagnated.

I actually would be in favour of all these vulture/cuckoo funds if the price of housing to buy and rent wasn't kept so artificially high from the government on one side and them on the other.

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 03:02PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

What were the average figures back in the boom days? My parents' house was valued at 700k in 2007, as I recall. It would be valued at about 500k now, but of course would sell for more due to mad bidding were it to be put on the market.

MacronvFrugals · 13-05-2021 03:03PM

Genuine question, how are all these AirBnb units still viable during Covid?

https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1392597276506341378?s=20

timmyntc · 13-05-2021 03:05PM

RichardAnd wrote: »

What were the average figures back in the boom days? My parents' house was valued at 700k in 2007, as I recall. It would be valued at about 500k now, but of course would sell for more due to mad bidding were it to be put on the market.

The difference between now and boom days is that in boom time everyone and their mother was being offered massive mortgages - thats how prices got so high in the first place.

This time round there are lending limits on mortgages, but prices keep on rising. Back then the only downside was that people were taking on far more debt than they could pay back.
This time they cannot even take on enough debt to afford a house. There is something seriously wrong with that.

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 03:09PM

timmyntc wrote: »

The difference between now and boom days is that in boom time everyone and their mother was being offered massive mortgages - thats how prices got so high in the first place.

This time round there are lending limits on mortgages, but prices keep on rising. Back then the only downside was that people were taking on far more debt than they could pay back.
This time they cannot even take on enough debt to afford a house. There is something seriously wrong with that.

I was only 20 or so when the Celtic Tiger came to an end, so I didn't experience that particular era myself. I see what you're saying though. Apples and oranges, I suppose.

Reversal · 13-05-2021 03:24PM

AdamD wrote: »

Anyone else been looking at the property market and not noticed any increase in supply at all, even as restrictions have loosened? Thought it would have picked up even a little bit by now

Honestly, I really have noticed an uptick, my search alert for areas south of the liffey was giving less than 5 a week since the start of the year. 7-8 a day now since last week.

And actual 3 bed semis that you would consider appearing again now. All spring it had just been mid terrace ex council gaffs in dire need of rescue and renovation. Seeing less craazy asking prices too.

Eclectic Econometrics · 13-05-2021 03:24PM

I have been following this thread for what seems like years.

I cannot post links but Google "People are panic buying homes as prices skyrocket around the world". There is a decent CNN article to read on this topic.

hometruths · 13-05-2021 03:27PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Genuine question, how are all these AirBnb units still viable during Covid?

https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1392597276506341378?s=20

I guess most of them didn't get sold or rented to the council after all. Or if they did, no shortage of new ones to take their place.

InsideAirbnb reckons there are 4663 entire unit Airbnb listings in Co Dublin.

13-05-2021 03:28PM

fliball123 wrote: »

People who are looking to sell will also be looking to buy

You keep on repeating this but it is not true. Not everyone selling a property will be buying another one

RichardAnd · 13-05-2021 03:29PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have been following this thread for what seems like years.

I cannot post links but Google "People are panic buying homes as prices skyrocket around the world". There is a decent CNN article to read on this topic.

https://whdh.com/news/people-are-panic-buying-homes-as-prices-skyrocket-around-the-world/

This one?

Eclectic Econometrics · 13-05-2021 03:33PM

RichardAnd wrote: »

This one?

Yes, that's the one.

The estate agent saying he heard 3rd hand that people have paid £10,000 just to view a house sounds like porkies but then again I wouldn't bet my life against the fact that it happened.

Hubertj · 13-05-2021 03:34PM

schmittel wrote: »

I guess most of them didn't get sold or rented to the council after all. Or if they did, no shortage of new ones to take their place.

InsideAirbnb reckons there are 4663 entire unit Airbnb listings in Co Dublin.

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

13-05-2021 03:44PM

Hubertj wrote: »

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

You can let out your home on short terms lets (whether airbnb or not makes no difference) for up to 90 days in a year, with bookings only in 14 day blocks.

If you want to do more than 90 days in short term lets, including airbnb, you have to apply for planning, which will be a big fat no in urban areas. The fines if you're caught are pretty big

I know that in London, airbnb automatically take down the listing once its been booked for 90 days, and you have to provide proof of permission from the local council to get it back up....dont know if they do that here

So your friend is grand, but he is required to register with the local council

fliball123 · 13-05-2021 03:45PM

bubblypop wrote: »

You keep on repeating this but it is not true. Not everyone selling a property will be buying another one

And I have shown that we will still have more demand

More immigration inwards is still greater than migration outwards
more births than deaths over the last 100 years even with Covid
1/2 Million more in population size to house over the last 10 years and not enough houses to match that being built.

So to counter your logic which while it could be true and cant be measured the logic of that there will be a lot more people who don't have anything to sell (FTBs, immigrants) so adding zero to supply who will want to buy will far out weigh the supply side your logic supports.

Then throw in the amount of people who have split up over the last year who will know need 2 places to reside instead of 1 and while all of these may not end up buying it will still take a property that is needed to house the unwashed masses ergo making supply tighter.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/solicitor-sees-up-to-30-rise-in-separation-and-divorce-cases-arising-from-covid-1.4421546

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/pandemic-divorces-because-of-lockdown-they-can-t-tolerate-it-any-longer-1.4549890?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Flife-and-style%2Fhealth-family%2Fpandemic-divorces-because-of-lockdown-they-can-t-tolerate-it-any-longer-1.4549890

https://www.rte.ie/lifestyle/living/2021/0302/1200376-has-there-been-a-rise-in-divorce-inquiries-since-covid-19/

So tell me what is not true about the statement. You have said this time and again and never provided anything to back yourself up. The only thing to help supply is people building at a rate that will outstrip the demand that is currently there and that has been built up over years now

jill_valentine · 13-05-2021 03:48PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

I honestly think most younger workers just feel defeated at this stage. They've been screaming from (their landlord's) rooftops about this for years, did the protests, did the voting, did the campaigning, did the letters, did all the stuff they were meant to do to raise it as an issue.... nothing changed, and they don't believe it's going to anymore.

A lot of my social media circle are expressing bewilderment more than anger right now, about why the Maynooth thing created such a fuss, when it was just a fact of life for us that this was what happened from now on and we won't be able to buy anything.

I remember the last round of big protests, and the sit ins, and the stuff around that shady eviction with the weird nordie lads, people really did feel like there was finally some traction and something might improve... and then it didn't even stay on Joe Duffy longer than a few days.

We were told we just needed to work harder or be a bit more creative or flexible or whatever, no matter how many times we explained the stuff wasn't available to us to be bought, but then it just went to the background again.

I think after that this generation mostly resigned themselves to emigrating or hoping for the best when mam and dad pass on. The fact the scale of the problem is remerging now, as if it's a shock to anyone when it's been a defining feature of our adult lives, mostly just feels surreal and a little blackly amusing.

fliball123 · 13-05-2021 03:50PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I honestly think most younger workers just feel defeated at this stage. They've been screaming from (their landlord's) rooftops about this for years, did the protests, did the voting, did the campaigning, did the letters, did all the stuff they were meant to do to raise it as an issue.... nothing changed, and they don't believe it's going to anymore.

A lot of my social media circle are expressing bewilderment more than anger right now, about why the Maynooth thing created such a fuss, when it was just a fact of life for us that this was what happened from now on and we won't be able to buy anything.

I remember the last round of big protests, and the sit ins, and the stuff around that shady eviction with the weird nordie lads, people really did feel like there was finally some traction and something might improve... and then it didn't even stay on Joe Duffy longer than a few days.

We were told we just needed to work harder or be a bit more creative or flexible or whatever, no matter how many times we explained the stuff wasn't available to us to be bought, but then it just went to the background again.

I think after that this generation mostly resigned themselves to emigrating or hoping for the best when mam and dad pass on. The fact the scale of the problem is remerging now, as if it's a shock to anyone when it's been a defining feature of our adult lives, mostly just surreal and blackly amusing.

Its a hard situation to be in but the government have not been listening for years over a whole plethora of issues. Get used to it as its like being in a big company your just a number to them.

hometruths · 13-05-2021 04:01PM

Hubertj wrote: »

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

Sure it’s ok. Up to 90 days. Maybe less not sure

I’d say only a handful tick that box.

ElektroToad · 13-05-2021 04:10PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Its a hard situation to be in but the government have not been listening for years over a whole plethora of issues. Get used to it as its like being in a big company your just a number to them.

Past that point. Plenty in my generation are fed up being forgotten about on this area.

I'll be very very tempted taking the nuclear option and voting SF.

FG had over a decade to make it easier for young professionals like myself to afford a house or half decent apartment. I'd feel like a f***ing idiot to vote for them again unless they manage to pull a miracle within the next 3 years

fliball123 · 13-05-2021 04:22PM

ElektroToad wrote: »

Past that point. Plenty in my generation are fed up being forgotten about on this area.

I'll be very very tempted taking the nuclear option and voting SF.

FG had over a decade to make it easier for young professionals like myself to afford a house or half decent apartment. I'd feel like a f***ing idiot to vote for them again unless they manage to pull a miracle within the next 3 years

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing. There is also a very serious threat of our corporation tax being reduced by half in the coming years, as well as loony decisions of giving 3 pay rises to the public sector the first already been given and 2 more to come. Add in income tax at the middle and higher tax payers have been paying over 50% of any penny earned over the AIW. Yet they have 23Billion for welfare and are able to give tax breaks to REITS/Vulture funds and are able to get away with entering into 25 year leases with them for rents.

What your looking for will cost money so to get what your want someone else in the system will have to pay for it. I have no bother with that once my income tax is not raised I am paying more than enough like a lot of others and getting very little in return for it. This may seem self serving you will no doubt hear the public sector saying dont go near our pay rises or pay and same goes with welfare and their payouts. So what do we do the IMF are already breathing down our necks. It might be good for them to come back in and make the current government make the hard decisions again like after 08 but that means the economy is in the sh1tter and I am hoping once covid is gone the economy will bounce back but that's more of a fingers crossed.

It is going to be an interesting decade how they manage the ship I can see SF getting in but I am afraid that they will do the same to you as FF/FG/Labour/ The Greens. They all have the same thing in common "They are all politicians" and in this country there is no financial reprimand for those in power who dont follow through on the promises they made which got them elected in the first place. Until this changes nothing will. That one change where a politician who reneges on the promises that got them in there should have their pensions taken off them to start with.

ElektroToad · 13-05-2021 04:41PM

Totally agree with what you are saying. Voting SF carries with it potential that they will implement a number of nonsense policies that wouldn't be in my (or the country's) best interest at all. Especially if they end up bringing the looney left onboard to form a majority

But I'd think you'd also agree that housing is a very important, personal and emotive issue, hence why I figure more voters are gonna take a punt on SF regardless

But I digress...

In the meantime, I'll keep looking at daft.ie and wonder is it only a matter of time before we are looking at 400k+ for a 3-bed in Darndale? :pac:

yagan · 13-05-2021 04:47PM

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing. There is also a very serious threat of our corporation tax being reduced by half in the coming years, as well as loony decisions of giving 3 pay rises to the public sector the first already been given and 2 more to come. Add in income tax at the middle and higher tax payers have been paying over 50% of any penny earned over the AIW. Yet they have 23Billion for welfare and are able to give tax breaks to REITS/Vulture funds and are able to get away with entering into 25 year leases with them for rents.

What your looking for will cost money so to get what your want someone else in the system will have to pay for it. I have no bother with that once my income tax is not raised I am paying more than enough like a lot of others and getting very little in return for it. This may seem self serving you will no doubt hear the public sector saying dont go near our pay rises or pay and same goes with welfare and their payouts. So what do we do the IMF are already breathing down our necks. It might be good for them to come back in and make the current government make the hard decisions again like after 08 but that means the economy is in the sh1tter and I am hoping once covid is gone the economy will bounce back but that's more of a fingers crossed.

It is going to be an interesting decade how they manage the ship I can see SF getting in but I am afraid that they will do the same to you as FF/FG/Labour/ The Greens. They all have the same thing in common "They are all politicians" and in this country there is no financial reprimand for those in power who dont follow through on the promises they made which got them elected in the first place. Until this changes nothing will. That one change where a politician who reneges on the promises that got them in there should have their pensions taken off them to start with.

All very valid points, but the current trajectory of pricing younger generations out of home formation now isn't going to help older generations later, and I think that's why the Maynooth purchase was such a live wire.

Funds had been buying up apartments before, but the comfortable majority with low or no mortgage had no affinity with apartments. But once the average family home started being bought up for long term lease they suddenly twigged that their own kids might never be able to live nearby etc.. and even those homeowners without kids realised that such a fund could buy the house next door and move in the family from hell!

As for pensions, that's going to be a problem for all western governments in the immediate future so a bust there won't just be an Irish problem, but it will spurn reformed expectations of what's possible for later life and that's going to social solidarity that the current government can not command.

FFG do not have the respect of the middle voter, especially after the Maynooth purchase.

PropQueries · 13-05-2021 04:51PM

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Browney7 · 13-05-2021 04:54PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

He also stated almost 1/3rd of new property built by the state. I expect this should have said "for the state" through part 5 acquisition or AHBs buying large blocks of estates already built.

Villa05 · 13-05-2021 04:58PM

Hubertj wrote:

What was our capacity to build in 2014? How many houses could we build per year vs how many we actually built?

I don't know, but nama had the UK portfolio sold by then if I remember correctly so cash was coming in and the UK market had recovered most of the decreases by then especially London

Nama had significant Dublin landbanks and its called a management agency not a disposal agency. If you wanted to, it would have been a great time to implement a cost plus rental market. It could target employees working In essential services and new public servants that were thrown under the bus by the recovery pay deals
The activity could have helped in keeping construction workers here and speeded up the recovery in a sustainable fashion and self financing

There was also the episode in which nama sold a development close to tallaght hospital consisting of 300 1, 2 and 3 bed apartment plus commercial units at an average price of 100k a pop. I got pulled several times here for using as an example but my god we had issues hiring nurses for the hospital due to rent prices in the area and the lower starting salaries for the nurses

An incredible own goal, its as if they set out to make things as difficult as possible for our young people

Here we are 5 to 6 years on and the replacement cost of those apartments is half a million each when the state needs them

yagan · 13-05-2021 04:59PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Varadkar projects a lot onto SF, and an awful lot of the land under development now was NAMA anyway.

He's scrapping the barrel.

DubCount · 13-05-2021 05:02PM

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing.....

That is the real issue. Its easy to promise everything to everybody when you are in opposition and dont have to pay for it. Building social housing, housing subsidies to ensure "affordable" housing (whatever that means), and all the other promises cost real money.

The "let the rich people pay" approach just doesnt work, as there are not enough Millionaires to fleece, and they're probably well able to move to a different country if we try to stick the knife in too deep. More tax on working families or cuts to social welfare/services is the real way this is paid for - and thats just not a message you want to state when you're trying to be popular.

As for the "ban evictions" brigade, this kind of action only reduces supply and panders to the "wont pay" merchants.

If there was an easy answer, someone would have done it already.

PropQueries · 13-05-2021 05:02PM

Browney7 wrote: »

He also stated almost 1/3rd of new property built by the state. I expect this should have said "for the state" through part 5 acquisition or AHBs buying large blocks of estates already built.

Even if someone is not impacted in any way by this housing issue, I think watching these childish exchanges should make everyone worried about the capabilities of the current Government IMO

These people also manage our health service, emergency services, security services etc. etc. It's getting a bit worrisome to be honest.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1