2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 03:51PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Some people downsize, others sell their home to finance the building of a new one. Some leave the country.

It's not a massive effect, but its far from zero sum.

OK and some people up size and with our migration laws set to change from 8 years to 4 months for a person supposedly being an illegal immigrant to a legal immigrant we are going to have a tsunami of people coming here, even with out this we have had nett+ migration coming into the country even in 2020 (the year of the lockdown) for the last 6 years or so.

timmyntc · 10-05-2021 03:54PM

fliball123 wrote: »

OK and some people up size and with our migration laws set to change from 8 years to 4 months for a person supposedly being an illegal immigrant to a legal immigrant we are going to have a tsunami of people coming here, even with out this we have had nett+ migration coming into the country even in 2020 (the year of the lockdown) for the last 6 years or so.

Total whataboutery.

What has immigration to do with second hand sales *not* being a zero-sum game?
Square root of f*ck all thats what

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 03:58PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Total whataboutery.

What has immigration to do with second hand sales *not* being a zero-sum game?
Square root of f*ck all thats what

Relax there the point you were trying to make is that people have been holding off putting their second hand property up for sale. I have simply pointed out that if this does ramp up it will up supply by 1 and demand by 1 so zero sum. You then tried to muddy this by the ultimate whataboutery of some people downsize some people sell and leave the country

haha and your pointing that finger at me. The stats are there migration inward for 6 years. As well as knowing some people upsize I literally did this my self last year. Hows that for whataboutery

and nothing like going through a year of lockdowns for you wanting a bigger place

MacronvFrugals · 10-05-2021 04:00PM

timmyntc wrote: »

It is crazy, make no mistake.
But if they are to abide by EU deficit rules then there isnt massive scope for social housing building by govt unless we get spending cutbacks elsewhere.

Really it should be pushed back against rather than accepting it and trying to farm it all out to private sector

The irony of the non-majoritarian stability mechanisms pushing us into these fiscally irresponsible deals.

PropQueries · 10-05-2021 04:02PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Do I point out the obvious again with this train of thought. Zero sum game for every 2nd hand property put up for sale the demand for a 2nd hand property will go up by one as the seller now needs to buy

Anyone know of the potential backlog in probate sales due to the covid restrictions and how fast they may be cleared?

Barry Cowen put the potential figure of such homes that could be entering probate each year at up to c. 26k in 2018 and even back then, his comments in the Dail were in relation to the significant backlog that existed at that stage and that the backlog was limiting the supply of such properties re-entering the market.

Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.

Marius34 · 10-05-2021 04:03PM

Hubertj wrote: »

0.4% increase in vacancy rate for Dublin if the postmen are to be relied on.

Postman shows increase, thus it's important. But if the same postman shows that overall it still low vacancy, that not really important. It requires deep analysis if he missed something.
Census shows that some people have not stayed over the weekend at home, that's important to add to the vacancy numbers.

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 04:03PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Anyone know of the potential backlog in probate sales due to the covid restrictions and how fast they may be cleared?

Barry Cowen put the potential figure of such homes that could be entering probate each year at up to c. 26k in 2018 and even back then, his comments in the Dail were in relation to the significant backlog that existing at that stage and that the backlog was limiting the supply of such properties re-entering the market.

Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.

Maybe Props I have not seen any figures on them. The figures we can see is that birth rates have exceeded death rates over the last 100 years even in 2020 with Covid

hmmm · 10-05-2021 04:05PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Even with the council on the hook for maintenance and upward only rent reviews?

The council are looking at cash flow, not value. It's spend 21 million now or 1 million. Who-ever is around in 10 years time can worry about value.

hometruths · 10-05-2021 04:10PM

Hubertj wrote: »

0.4% increase in vacancy rate for Dublin if the postmen are to be relied on.

Approx 2000 more vacant properties in 6 months is a lot in housing shortage. The rate is trending upwards in highest demand area of the country. And it is one of the only counties showing this upward trend.

It's significant.

timmyntc · 10-05-2021 04:11PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Relax there the point you were trying to make is that people have been holding off putting their second hand property up for sale. I have simply pointed out that if this does ramp up it will up supply by 1 and demand by 1 so zero sum. You then tried to muddy this by the ultimate whataboutery of some people downsize some people sell and leave the country haha and your pointing that finger at me. The stats are there migration inward for 6 years. As well as knowing some people upsize I literally did this my self last year. Hows that for whataboutery and nothing like going through a year of lockdowns for you wanting a bigger place

Yes but people immigrating is irrelevant.

We were discussing solely on 2nd hand homes and whether they are zero-sum, which they arent. People do sell and leave the country. Whether that is offset by immigration is irrelevant - otherwise you could say that new builds are a zero-sum game because immigrants more than make up for any demand catered to by the new build supply.
i.e. total nonsense argument from you

hometruths · 10-05-2021 04:14PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Postman shows increase, thus it's important. But if the same postman shows that overall it still low vacancy, that not really important. It requires deep analysis if he missed something.
Census shows that some people have not stayed over the weekend at home, that's important to add to the vacancy numbers.

Postman shows increase and postman shows it is overall high vacancy.

I know you disagree. We have been over this before:

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't ask me why is this, as I don't have proof to explain this, and I don't want to discuss "what I think".

Cyrus · 10-05-2021 04:18PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.

you will need a tsunami of some sort if your predictions are to come close to fruition

cnocbui · 10-05-2021 04:19PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but people immigrating is irrelevant.

We were discussing solely on 2nd hand homes and whether they are zero-sum, which they arent. People do sell and leave the country. Whether that is offset by immigration is irrelevant - otherwise you could say that new builds are a zero-sum game because immigrants more than make up for any demand catered to by the new build supply.
i.e. total nonsense argument from you

Emigration is very problematic at the moment. I want to sell up and flee, but NZ isn't exactly open to my entry at the moment, now is it? And this looks like persisting through 2022 as well. I won't be putting my house on the market until I can actually get where I am going.

Marius34 · 10-05-2021 04:23PM

schmittel wrote: »

Postman shows increase and postman shows it is overall high vacancy.

I know you disagree. We have been over this before:

Except, that I'm sharing what they say:
"In contrast to the low vacancy rates of the Greater Dublin Area, there is a different picture in the west of the country, with the three highest vacancy rates all found in Connacht"

https://www.geodirectory.ie/knowledge-centre/reports-blogs/geoview-residential-buildings-report-q2-2020#:~:text=GeoView%20Residential%20Buildings%20Report%20Q2%202020%20Highlights&text=In%20Dublin%20the%20decline%20in,a%20decrease%20in%20vacancy%20rates

Since you don't like what they say, it requires your explanation what it "means"

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 04:24PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but people immigrating is irrelevant.

We were discussing solely on 2nd hand homes and whether they are zero-sum, which they arent. People do sell and leave the country. Whether that is offset by immigration is irrelevant - otherwise you could say that new builds are a zero-sum game because immigrants more than make up for any demand catered to by the new build supply.
i.e. total nonsense argument from you

Timmy
If we have more people living here via immigration it means we need more housing to house them

If we have had more births than deaths over the last 100 years it means we have need more housing as we have more people who need to live here.

I believe our population has grown by nearly 500k in the last decade and where people like yourself fall down is by not joining the dots and understanding that they all need somewhere to live. It can be renting, building, sharing, buying or looked after by the state

Now then what has the government been doing since SF started pointing the gun at them about housing. They started buying more and more property and renting from REITS/Vultures and even private landlords. Do you not think that our increase in population has had nothing to do with this?? along with covid and the impact on new builds slowing down this has not been the main reason for the scenario we are in.

So then you have REITS buying more and more property due to the state backed guaranteed high returns they will get. This in turn has taken supply away from FTBs and STBs

So immigration when it comes to housing is relevant. Its relevant as it skews the amount of property we need to have in the country. I cant understand how you cannot see this. Its pretty simple so i will break the equation down for you

More people = a need for more housing

so its not a nonsense argument

Hubertj · 10-05-2021 04:25PM

schmittel wrote: »

Approx 2000 more vacant properties in 6 months is a lot in housing shortage. The rate is trending upwards in highest demand area of the country. And it is one of the only counties showing this upward trend.

It's significant.

0.2% decrease nationally.

hometruths · 10-05-2021 04:33PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Except, that I'm sharing what they say:
"In contrast to the low vacancy rates of the Greater Dublin Area, there is a different picture in the west of the country, with the three highest vacancy rates all found in Connacht"

https://www.geodirectory.ie/knowledge-centre/reports-blogs/geoview-residential-buildings-report-q2-2020#:~:text=GeoView%20Residential%20Buildings%20Report%20Q2%202020%20Highlights&text=In%20Dublin%20the%20decline%20in,a%20decrease%20in%20vacancy%20rates

Since you don't like what they say, it requires your explanation what it "means"

I do not have a like or dislike of what they say. I think that is the difference between you and I.

The rates are low compared to Connacht - thats what it means. But it is easier to understand why there is a higher % of vacancies in Connacht where demand is weak.

But the rates are undeniably high compared to what you'd expect in the highest demand centre with a housing shortage.

And oddly enough my post above on vacancies was in response to a poster saying people ignore where the vacancies are situated i.e they are in rural areas.

So I say ok, lets look at Dublin specifically. And you say?

What about Connacht?! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Bass Reeves · 10-05-2021 04:33PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Anyone know of the potential backlog in probate sales due to the covid restrictions and how fast they may be cleared?

Barry Cowen put the potential figure of such homes that could be entering probate each year at up to c. 26k in 2018 and even back then, his comments in the Dail were in relation to the significant backlog that existed at that stage and that the backlog was limiting the supply of such properties re-entering the market.

Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.

So there is has been no house going through probate for the last 100 years

hometruths · 10-05-2021 04:34PM

Hubertj wrote: »

0.2% decrease nationally.

My point exactly.

Oddly enough my post above on vacancies was in response to a poster saying people ignore where the vacancies are situated i.e they are in rural areas.

So I say ok, lets look at Dublin specifically. And you say?

0.2% decrease nationally.

timmyntc · 10-05-2021 04:37PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Timmy
If we have more people living here via immigration it means we need more housing to house them

If we have had more births than deaths over the last 100 years it means we have need more housing as we have more people who need to live here.

I believe our population has grown by nearly 500k in the last decade and where people like yourself fall down is by not joining the dots and understanding that they all need somewhere to live. It can be renting, building, sharing, buying or looked after by the state

Now then what has the government been doing since SF started pointing the gun at them about housing. They started buying more and more property and renting from REITS/Vultures and even private landlords. Do you not think that our increase in population has had nothing to do with this?? along with covid and the impact on new builds slowing down this has not been the main reason for the scenario we are in.

So then you have REITS buying more and more property due to the state backed guaranteed high returns they will get. This in turn has taken supply away from FTBs and STBs

So immigration when it comes to housing is relevant. Its relevant as it skews the amount of property we need to have in the country. I cant understand how you cannot see this. Its pretty simple so i will break the equation down for you

More people = a need for more housing

so its not a nonsense argument

Yes but we were discussing the impact of second hand sales.

Immigration and its effect on demand is a whole other kettle of fish - of course I can see it. But its not relevant to what we were discussing, which is 2nd hand sales.
You stated that 2nd hand sales were a zero sum game which is false

PropQueries · 10-05-2021 04:39PM

Cyrus wrote: »

you will need a tsunami of some sort if your predictions are to come close to fruition

As Ronan Lyons pointed out today: "When there are fewer homes available to buy, prices increase. When there are between about 4,000 and 5,000 homes on the market, there is little pressure – up or down – on Dublin sale prices. And when there are lots of homes for sale – in some cases up to 7,000 – prices fall rapidly."

It doesn't take much of a previously unforeseen/unaccounted for supply of pre-existing housing to re-enter the market to turn the current situation upside down and to it very rapidly IMO

awec · 10-05-2021 04:40PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Ronan Lyons writing in The Currency today, of the opinion that the extraordinary situation the past year in the housing market is likely to be a temporary state of affairs. Well, I don't think anyone would dispute that the price rises were unlikely to be sustainable given supply crashed while demand exploded, but it is interesting that his view is that the primary reason for the collapse in supply was due to second hand homes not being put on the market as opposed to construction being shuttered.

https://thecurrency.news/articles/46503/lockdown-liquidity-and-respite-for-homebuyers-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-outlook-for-house-prices/

Now I see why Props talks of seeing big things happening in August - covid restrictions will be all but dusht at that stage and the floodgates of second hand homes hitting the market will be opened (let's not forget Brexit as well, minimal to no fallout)!

Interestingly the article talks about the importance of new housing being built continually to maintain a healthy market. Also mentions Ireland has consistently failed to do this for decades.

PropQueries has continually insisted we need no new properties, it was all an illusion and Ireland's problem has only ever been that we haven't taxed vacant properties enough. Given The Currency is seen as a reputable and impartial source by all on this forum, maybe we finally put this one to bed?

On another note, looking at new housing and second hand in isolation is not really possible. It is all interconnected. The supply of new builds will affect the supply of second hand. The closure of construction sites unquestionably had an effect on the supply of second hand houses for sale.

DataDude · 10-05-2021 04:42PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but we were discussing the impact of second hand sales.

Immigration and its effect on demand is a whole other kettle of fish - of course I can see it. But its not relevant to what we were discussing, which is 2nd hand sales.
You stated that 2nd hand sales were a zero sum game which is false

One point which Ronan Lyons makes, even if it was a zero sum game (it isn't), it still provides liquidity to the housing market and more people find the "right home".

Also from a pure numbers perspective. If you have 100 people chasing 50 homes. 50% of people will miss out. If you add 100 sellers and 100 buyers into the mix (zero-sum game). You then have 200 people chasing 150 homes. Only 25% miss out.

The extra supply is helpful even if it was a zero sum game.

Bass Reeves · 10-05-2021 04:47PM

PropQueries wrote: »

As Ronan Lyons pointed out today: "When there are fewer homes available to buy, prices increase. When there are between about 4,000 and 5,000 homes on the market, there is little pressure – up or down – on Dublin sale prices. And when there are lots of homes for sale – in some cases up to 7,000 – prices fall rapidly."

It doesn't take much of a previously unforeseen/unaccounted for supply of pre-existing housing to re-enter the market to turn the current situation upside down and to it very rapidly IMO

One thing to remember in the 2004-8 boom moving was not an option. It was too risky to sell and then to buy I know of 2-3 people who were squeezed out of the market in that period. One couple ended up renting for 10 years before they could afford to buy again.

Building onto existing properties became the chosen option instead as you had more control of your budget. The gap between selling and rebuying became too much

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 04:48PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Timmy
If we have more people living here via immigration it means we need more housing to house them

If we have had more births than deaths over the last 100 years it means we have need more housing as we have more people who need to live here.

I believe our population has grown by nearly 500k in the last decade and where people like yourself fall down is by not joining the dots and understanding that they all need somewhere to live. It can be renting, building, sharing, buying or looked after by the state

Now then what has the government been doing since SF started pointing the gun at them about housing. They started buying more and more property and renting from REITS/Vultures and even private landlords. Do you not think that our increase in population has had nothing to do with this?? along with covid and the impact on new builds slowing down this has not been the main reason for the scenario we are in.

So then you have REITS buying more and more property due to the state backed guaranteed high returns they will get. This in turn has taken supply away from FTBs and STBs

So immigration when it comes to housing is relevant. Its relevant as it skews the amount of property we need to have in the country. I cant understand how you cannot see this. Its pretty simple so i will break the equation down for you

More people = a need for more housing

so its not a nonsense argument

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but we were discussing the impact of second hand sales.

Immigration and its effect on demand is a whole other kettle of fish - of course I can see it. But its not relevant to what we were discussing, which is 2nd hand sales.
You stated that 2nd hand sales were a zero sum game which is false

Did you not read the part that
More population = more housing.
More people coming into the country than leaving = more housing
More housing being snapped up by REITS / vulures and government mean less supply on the both the first and second hand market.

So it does feed into the second hand sales market. I tried to bring you along nice and slowly but you still dont get it.

The most common situation of someone selling a house will be someone puts a house on the market they sell it and then they also need to buy ergo one house into the 2nd hand supply chain and one house going out of the 2nd hand supply chain.

You have argued this is not correct by saying people will be downsizing and ignoring a lot of people went through a year of lockdown and are yearning for a bigger place. ( I made this move personally). So there will be alot of upsizing as well.

You have argued that people can sell and leave the country. I have shown you stats more people are coming in to the country to live than leaving. Meaning that for every person leaving there will at least one person coming in looking to be housed.

Props brought up executor sales and while people are dying they have always been dying but guess what 100 years we have had births out pace deaths. So demand has been upping for years now.

So the zero sum game on the 2nd hand market is not nonsense. I have pointed out what is wrong with your argument and while some here say it will be better to have more supply I agree it will but demand is not going down anytime soon.

PropQueries · 10-05-2021 04:52PM

awec wrote: »

Interestingly the article talks about the importance of new housing being built continually to maintain a healthy market. Also mentions Ireland has consistently failed to do this for decades.

PropQueries has continually insisted we need no new properties, it was all an illusion and Ireland's problem has only ever been that we haven't taxed vacant properties enough. Given The Currency is seen as a reputable and impartial source by all on this forum, maybe we finally put this one to bed?

On another note, looking at new housing and second hand in isolation is not really possible. It is all interconnected. The supply of new builds will affect the supply of second hand. The closure of construction sites unquestionably had an effect on the supply of second hand houses for sale.

So, we didn't have an over-supply of housing post-2008 crash?

And, outside the nonsense argument (my view on it) that c. 5,000 of these homes need to be knocked down every year due to obsolescence, I don't buy the argument all that over-supply from the last bust has been soaked up. Not including the c. 120k+ new homes we have built in the past 10 years.

My opinion (and, it's just my opinion) is that they're mostly owned/controlled by one fund or the other and we should see them re-enter the market on their exit.

Marius34 · 10-05-2021 04:54PM

schmittel wrote: »

I do not have a like or dislike of what they say. I think that is the difference between you and I.

The rates are low compared to Connacht - thats what it means. But it is easier to understand why there is a higher % of vacancies in Connacht where demand is weak.

But the rates are undeniably high compared to what you'd expect in the highest demand centre with a housing shortage.

And oddly enough my post above on vacancies was in response to a poster saying people ignore where the vacancies are situated i.e they are in rural areas.

So I say ok, lets look at Dublin specifically. And you say?

What about Connacht?! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I had enough of your interpretation. There are written rules for Geodirectory. I'll stick with what it says, not what it means.
It's 1.6% vacancy for Dublin, which focus for long term, and they consider Dublin as low vacancy. Whereas Census over 6%, which is focus on the night of 24 April 2016, they can include it, regardless if person was away for 6 month, or 1 week.

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 04:55PM

PropQueries wrote: »

So, we didn't have an over-supply of housing post-2008 crash?

And, outside the nonsense argument (my view on it) that c. 5,000 of these homes need to be knocked down every year due to obsolescence, I don't buy the argument all that over-supply from the last bust has been soaked up. Not including the c. 120k+ new homes we have built in the past 10 years.

My opinion (and, it's just my opinion) is that they're mostly owned/controlled by one fund or the other and we should see them re-enter the market on their exit.

Well your talking about 1/2 million rise in the population Props even by your 2.5 family sums there has been/is a lot of housing needed

hometruths · 10-05-2021 04:57PM

DataDude wrote: »

One point which Ronan Lyons makes, even if it was a zero sum game (it isn't), it still provides liquidity to the housing market and more people find the "right home".

Also from a pure numbers perspective. If you have 100 people chasing 50 homes. 50% of people will miss out. If you add 100 sellers and 100 buyers into the mix (zero-sum game). You then have 200 people chasing 150 homes. Only 25% miss out.

The extra supply is helpful even if it was a zero sum game.

Exactly, one of biggest problems is turnover of existing stock is at record lows, and it is another vicious circle.

GeoDirectory always used to report on the turnover rate of the market and would consistently comment that it was problematically low.

They suddenly stopped both the commentary and the reporting on turnover about the same time they changed their methodology of reporting vacancies.

The cynic in me has always wondered why.

DataDude · 10-05-2021 04:58PM

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1