timmyntc wrote: » Some people downsize, others sell their home to finance the building of a new one. Some leave the country. It's not a massive effect, but its far from zero sum.
fliball123 wrote: » OK and some people up size and with our migration laws set to change from 8 years to 4 months for a person supposedly being an illegal immigrant to a legal immigrant we are going to have a tsunami of people coming here, even with out this we have had nett+ migration coming into the country even in 2020 (the year of the lockdown) for the last 6 years or so.
timmyntc wrote: » Total whataboutery. What has immigration to do with second hand sales *not* being a zero-sum game? Square root of f*ck all thats what
timmyntc wrote: » It is crazy, make no mistake. But if they are to abide by EU deficit rules then there isnt massive scope for social housing building by govt unless we get spending cutbacks elsewhere. Really it should be pushed back against rather than accepting it and trying to farm it all out to private sector
fliball123 wrote: » Do I point out the obvious again with this train of thought. Zero sum game for every 2nd hand property put up for sale the demand for a 2nd hand property will go up by one as the seller now needs to buy
Hubertj wrote: » 0.4% increase in vacancy rate for Dublin if the postmen are to be relied on.
PropQueries wrote: » Anyone know of the potential backlog in probate sales due to the covid restrictions and how fast they may be cleared? Barry Cowen put the potential figure of such homes that could be entering probate each year at up to c. 26k in 2018 and even back then, his comments in the Dail were in relation to the significant backlog that existing at that stage and that the backlog was limiting the supply of such properties re-entering the market. Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Even with the council on the hook for maintenance and upward only rent reviews?
fliball123 wrote: » Relax there the point you were trying to make is that people have been holding off putting their second hand property up for sale. I have simply pointed out that if this does ramp up it will up supply by 1 and demand by 1 so zero sum. You then tried to muddy this by the ultimate whataboutery of some people downsize some people sell and leave the country haha and your pointing that finger at me. The stats are there migration inward for 6 years. As well as knowing some people upsize I literally did this my self last year. Hows that for whataboutery and nothing like going through a year of lockdowns for you wanting a bigger place
Marius34 wrote: » Postman shows increase, thus it's important. But if the same postman shows that overall it still low vacancy, that not really important. It requires deep analysis if he missed something. Census shows that some people have not stayed over the weekend at home, that's important to add to the vacancy numbers.
Marius34 wrote: » Don't ask me why is this, as I don't have proof to explain this, and I don't want to discuss "what I think".
PropQueries wrote: » Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.
timmyntc wrote: » Yes but people immigrating is irrelevant. We were discussing solely on 2nd hand homes and whether they are zero-sum, which they arent. People do sell and leave the country. Whether that is offset by immigration is irrelevant - otherwise you could say that new builds are a zero-sum game because immigrants more than make up for any demand catered to by the new build supply. i.e. total nonsense argument from you
schmittel wrote: » Postman shows increase and postman shows it is overall high vacancy. I know you disagree. We have been over this before:
schmittel wrote: » Approx 2000 more vacant properties in 6 months is a lot in housing shortage. The rate is trending upwards in highest demand area of the country. And it is one of the only counties showing this upward trend. It's significant.
Marius34 wrote: » Except, that I'm sharing what they say: "In contrast to the low vacancy rates of the Greater Dublin Area, there is a different picture in the west of the country, with the three highest vacancy rates all found in Connacht"https://www.geodirectory.ie/knowledge-centre/reports-blogs/geoview-residential-buildings-report-q2-2020#:~:text=GeoView%20Residential%20Buildings%20Report%20Q2%202020%20Highlights&text=In%20Dublin%20the%20decline%20in,a%20decrease%20in%20vacancy%20rates Since you don't like what they say, it requires your explanation what it "means"
PropQueries wrote: » Anyone know of the potential backlog in probate sales due to the covid restrictions and how fast they may be cleared? Barry Cowen put the potential figure of such homes that could be entering probate each year at up to c. 26k in 2018 and even back then, his comments in the Dail were in relation to the significant backlog that existed at that stage and that the backlog was limiting the supply of such properties re-entering the market. Could be a tsunami of such sales ready to re-enter the market in a relatively short period of time IMO. And, many would be in sought after, prime locations in our cities and towns.
Hubertj wrote: » 0.2% decrease nationally.
fliball123 wrote: » Timmy If we have more people living here via immigration it means we need more housing to house them If we have had more births than deaths over the last 100 years it means we have need more housing as we have more people who need to live here. I believe our population has grown by nearly 500k in the last decade and where people like yourself fall down is by not joining the dots and understanding that they all need somewhere to live. It can be renting, building, sharing, buying or looked after by the state Now then what has the government been doing since SF started pointing the gun at them about housing. They started buying more and more property and renting from REITS/Vultures and even private landlords. Do you not think that our increase in population has had nothing to do with this?? along with covid and the impact on new builds slowing down this has not been the main reason for the scenario we are in. So then you have REITS buying more and more property due to the state backed guaranteed high returns they will get. This in turn has taken supply away from FTBs and STBs So immigration when it comes to housing is relevant. Its relevant as it skews the amount of property we need to have in the country. I cant understand how you cannot see this. Its pretty simple so i will break the equation down for you More people = a need for more housing so its not a nonsense argument
Cyrus wrote: » you will need a tsunami of some sort if your predictions are to come close to fruition
Amadan Dubh wrote: » Ronan Lyons writing in The Currency today, of the opinion that the extraordinary situation the past year in the housing market is likely to be a temporary state of affairs. Well, I don't think anyone would dispute that the price rises were unlikely to be sustainable given supply crashed while demand exploded, but it is interesting that his view is that the primary reason for the collapse in supply was due to second hand homes not being put on the market as opposed to construction being shuttered.https://thecurrency.news/articles/46503/lockdown-liquidity-and-respite-for-homebuyers-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-outlook-for-house-prices/ Now I see why Props talks of seeing big things happening in August - covid restrictions will be all but dusht at that stage and the floodgates of second hand homes hitting the market will be opened (let's not forget Brexit as well, minimal to no fallout)!
timmyntc wrote: » Yes but we were discussing the impact of second hand sales. Immigration and its effect on demand is a whole other kettle of fish - of course I can see it. But its not relevant to what we were discussing, which is 2nd hand sales. You stated that 2nd hand sales were a zero sum game which is false
PropQueries wrote: » As Ronan Lyons pointed out today: "When there are fewer homes available to buy, prices increase. When there are between about 4,000 and 5,000 homes on the market, there is little pressure – up or down – on Dublin sale prices. And when there are lots of homes for sale – in some cases up to 7,000 – prices fall rapidly." It doesn't take much of a previously unforeseen/unaccounted for supply of pre-existing housing to re-enter the market to turn the current situation upside down and to it very rapidly IMO
awec wrote: » Interestingly the article talks about the importance of new housing being built continually to maintain a healthy market. Also mentions Ireland has consistently failed to do this for decades. PropQueries has continually insisted we need no new properties, it was all an illusion and Ireland's problem has only ever been that we haven't taxed vacant properties enough. Given The Currency is seen as a reputable and impartial source by all on this forum, maybe we finally put this one to bed? On another note, looking at new housing and second hand in isolation is not really possible. It is all interconnected. The supply of new builds will affect the supply of second hand. The closure of construction sites unquestionably had an effect on the supply of second hand houses for sale.
schmittel wrote: » I do not have a like or dislike of what they say. I think that is the difference between you and I. The rates are low compared to Connacht - thats what it means. But it is easier to understand why there is a higher % of vacancies in Connacht where demand is weak. But the rates are undeniably high compared to what you'd expect in the highest demand centre with a housing shortage. And oddly enough my post above on vacancies was in response to a poster saying people ignore where the vacancies are situated i.e they are in rural areas.So I say ok, lets look at Dublin specifically. And you say? What about Connacht?! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
PropQueries wrote: » So, we didn't have an over-supply of housing post-2008 crash? And, outside the nonsense argument (my view on it) that c. 5,000 of these homes need to be knocked down every year due to obsolescence, I don't buy the argument all that over-supply from the last bust has been soaked up. Not including the c. 120k+ new homes we have built in the past 10 years. My opinion (and, it's just my opinion) is that they're mostly owned/controlled by one fund or the other and we should see them re-enter the market on their exit.
DataDude wrote: » One point which Ronan Lyons makes, even if it was a zero sum game (it isn't), it still provides liquidity to the housing market and more people find the "right home". Also from a pure numbers perspective. If you have 100 people chasing 50 homes. 50% of people will miss out. If you add 100 sellers and 100 buyers into the mix (zero-sum game). You then have 200 people chasing 150 homes. Only 25% miss out. The extra supply is helpful even if it was a zero sum game.
