2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

As Ronan Lyons pointed out today: "When there are fewer homes available to buy, prices increase. When there are between about 4,000 and 5,000 homes on the market, there is little pressure – up or down – on Dublin sale prices. And when there are lots of homes for sale – in some cases up to 7,000 – prices fall rapidly."

It doesn't take much of a previously unforeseen/unaccounted for supply of pre-existing housing to re-enter the market to turn the current situation upside down and to it very rapidly IMO

Converting old uninsulated structures into something habitable and desirable by modern standards, is not something that can or will happen rapidly. There isn't the manpower to do it and the econimics may make it unjustifiable.

I have personally been in the position of thinking of rennovating an old stone building to modern standards, and concluded it wasn't worth the financial risk.

You are very quick to make light of very weighty issues. If you had some skin in the game, you mightn't be so forthcoming with your easy quick fixes.

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Did you not read the part that
More population = more housing.
More people coming into the country than leaving = more housing
More housing being snapped up by REITS / vulures and government mean less supply on the both the first and second hand market.

So it does feed into the second hand sales market. I tried to bring you along nice and slowly but you still dont get it.

The most common situation of someone selling a house will be someone puts a house on the market they sell it and then they also need to buy ergo one house into the 2nd hand supply chain and one house going out of the 2nd hand supply chain.

You have argued this is not correct by saying people will be downsizing and ignoring a lot of people went through a year of lockdown and are yearning for a bigger place. ( I made this move personally). So there will be alot of upsizing as well.

You have argued that people can sell and leave the country. I have shown you stats more people are coming in to the country to live than leaving. Meaning that for every person leaving there will at least one person coming in looking to be housed.

Props brought up executor sales and while people are dying they have always been dying but guess what 100 years we have had births out pace deaths. So demand has been upping for years now.

So the zero sum game on the 2nd hand market is not nonsense. I have pointed out what is wrong with your argument and while some here say it will be better to have more supply I agree it will but demand is not going down anytime soon.

This is the last I'm saying on this so as not to pollute the thread.

I dont think you understand what a zero-sum game is or isn't.
Immigration, it's impact on demand, and indigenous demand do not factor into the equation if you are trying to work out whether 2nd hand sales are a zero-sum game.

A zero-sum game would be when every 2nd hand house sold, the seller then buys a house. There is no net addition to property market because the 2nd hand seller is also a buyer. Of course I've highlighted various scenarios that show why this isn't strictly the case.

If we were to take your line of thought you could come to the conclusion that 2nd hand homes are a negative sum game! Because immigration demand is increasing and there is more demand for 2nd hand homes than those being sold or something.

Or you could make the same argument about new builds being a zero sum game because all new supply is taken up by demand created from immigration.

But thats not what zero sum game is. Either you dont understand or are too stubborn to admit you were wrong. Regardless, I'm not replying to you on this anymore.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

I’d take it! Not mad about the stone exterior and poxy tennis court but the location is amazing!

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Converting old uninsulated structures into something habitable and desirable by modern standards, is not something that can or will happen rapidly. There isn't the manpower to do it and the econimics may make it unjustifiable.

I have personally been in the position of thinking of rennovating an old stone building to modern standards, and concluded it wasn't worth the financial risk.

You are very quick to make light of very weighty issues. If you had some skin in the game, you mightn't be so forthcoming with your easy quick fixes.

If the Government put a 10% derelict property tax on it (like Washington D.C.), I would believe many would be very imaginative in how they could bring them up to code and back into the market in a very cost efficient and timely manner

I also like the idea of Denmark where a property owner must tell the state if a property is vacant and why or they face a fine. It's obviously being debated to death in the media on why the Government doesn't pick at this low lying fruit and a simple idea like Denmark's would finally put it to bed IMO.

If this Government doesn't do it, the next most likely will and they're making a big mistake in not targeting it as the next Government will take the credit for solving the housing crisis if such a supply does indeed exist IMO

cnocbui

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

That actually seems like far better value than the other million plus aspirational properties I've seen linked here.

Try suggesting replacing useless sash windows with UPVC tripple glazing and see what sort of a response you get. Carbon taxes should be refundable on listed buildings.

If you have to ask how much that place costs to heat, you can't afford it. I wonder where they are hiding the 10,000L kerosene tank?

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d take it! Not mad about the stone exterior and poxy tennis court but the location is amazing!

Agreed on the tennis court, although as far as tennis courts goes it beats most of the sh*tty ones you see in many McMansions. Wouldn't like it as much as some period homes, but I think I quite like the exterior (maybe that would change over time).

Always annoys me in east-facing houses like that with space when people don't extend the seating areas beyond the footprint of the house so you get all night sun from behind instead of being plunged into the shadow of the house at 4pm. Amateurs!

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

some place.

i think it has been on and off the market for quite some time now. Since 2017 at least.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I had enough of your interpretation. There are written rules for Geodirectory. I'll stick with what it says, not what it means.
It's 1.6% vacancy for Dublin, which focus for long term, and they consider Dublin as low vacancy. Whereas Census over 6%, which is focus on the night of 24 April 2016, they can include it, regardless if person was away for 6 month, or 1 week.

GeoDirectory do not count properties that they consider are for sale or for rent. Hence the difference with the census.

They reduced their vacancy numbers by almost 20k for sale and 20k for rent at a time when there was less than 5k for rent on the market.

This is not my interpretation- this is explained in the methodology which I have showed you many times.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

some place.

i think it has been on and off the market for quite some time now. Since 2017 at least.

Yep, thought it looked somewhat familiar alright. Was on at €6m back in 2015:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/castellated-killiney-beachfront-home-for-6m-1.2434810

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

This is the last I'm saying on this so as not to pollute the thread.

I dont think you understand what a zero-sum game is or isn't.
Immigration, it's impact on demand, and indigenous demand do not factor into the equation if you are trying to work out whether 2nd hand sales are a zero-sum game.

A zero-sum game would be when every 2nd hand house sold, the seller then buys a house. There is no net addition to property market because the 2nd hand seller is also a buyer. Of course I've highlighted various scenarios that show why this isn't strictly the case.

If we were to take your line of thought you could come to the conclusion that 2nd hand homes are a negative sum game! Because immigration demand is increasing and there is more demand for 2nd hand homes than those being sold or something.

Or you could make the same argument about new builds being a zero sum game because all new supply is taken up by demand created from immigration.

But thats not what zero sum game is. Either you dont understand or are too stubborn to admit you were wrong. Regardless, I'm not replying to you on this anymore.

You only have to take a step back and look at property prices we are in the middle of a pandemic and prices have gone up (rocketed up). Is this because of my conclusion in that 2nd hand homes is a at the very least a zero sum game (could well be a negative sum) there is way more demand then there is supply. So this in itself the fact property prices are shooting up would suggest my theory is right. Dont bother replying as you have not got a clue what your arguing about.

I have tried to show you our population increase including immigration is directly feeding into the market and forcing the government into buying and renting. The government renting initiatives has made it more attractive for REITS/vultures and foreign investors to buy. The state is not just buying new property they are very active in the second hand market too. Yet you think migration has no impact on 2nd hand property. REALLY?? See how you go trying to outbid an entity has has access to billions and see where you land with trying to buy a 2nd hand property.

Everyone including foreign people need somewhere to live and until you think of property at this level and start seeing the trickle effect that everyone needs some where to live trickles into all aspect of our property market including the 2nd hand market.

Your have painstakingly gone out of your way to show one side to the 2nd hand market only bringing in downsizing and people selling and leaving. When I shot both of those arguments down and the stats back me up your having a go at the poster.

So 2nd hand market is at the very least a zero sum game its probably negative at the moment with the way demand is. You need proof?

Emigration a plus figure for the last 6 years
Property prices going up (including 2nd hand property)
Availability of 2nd hand homes down
Demand for 2nd hand homes through the roof


As the old Wimbledon commentators used to say game set and match.

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

Converting old uninsulated structures into something habitable and desirable by modern standards, is not something that can or will happen rapidly. There isn't the manpower to do it and the econimics may make it unjustifiable.

I have personally been in the position of thinking of rennovating an old stone building to modern standards, and concluded it wasn't worth the financial risk.

You are very quick to make light of very weighty issues. If you had some skin in the game, you mightn't be so forthcoming with your easy quick fixes.

Did up an old stone farm house between 2015-2018. Never employed an engineer or any other professional. House was stripped to four bare walls reroofed, new floors, plumbing wiring, windows and doors. Drylined it, new stairs, solar panel, stove and oil heated. Turned it into a two bed house. It cost about 600 euro/ sqM. I did some of the work myself. It is now rented. I hate to even contemplate it now. It would run to way the wrong side of 100K and I have to chase every trades man I needed. I have a lady with two children in it. She is delighted with a modern well insulated ( but its D rated) house that is cheap to heat and run. But then I am one of those gouging heartless LL's that are out there.

All these things sound easy on paper, until you go and do them. It seems easy doing them in a recession, i had factored in a rental yield of 8-10% of costs to do it up, its hitting 16%

Inflating prices government make property more expensive
The more people has to pay for property the less money they spend for other things
The less money they spend the less other people earn
The less other people earn the less them can get mortgage
The more people has to pay high rent the less they spend for other things and they can not save to buy house
The more people can not afford buy houses the more houses gets overpriced
In this situation we have housing bubble and investors from abroad has serious risk investing in property in Ireland
Forget about supply and demand start talk about affordability.
Any inflation is impossible in this situation because people only can spend for rent and food

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

If the Government put a 10% derelict property tax on it (like Washington D.C.), I would believe many would be very imaginative in how they could bring them up to code and back into the market in a very cost efficient and timely manner

I also like the idea of Denmark where a property owner must tell the state if a property is vacant and why or they face a fine. It's obviously being debated to death in the media on why the Government doesn't pick at this low lying fruit and a simple idea like Denmark's would finally put it to bed IMO.

If this Government doesn't do it, the next most likely will and they're making a big mistake in not targeting it as the next Government will take the credit for solving the housing crisis if such a supply does indeed exist IMO

You are mistaken. The property is not vacant. The owner is currently working overseas on contract and is due to return shortly.

MacronvFrugals

i'v been reading up lately on Spain's version of NAMA, incidentally setup by the same guys who did NAMA Alvarez and Marshall

The spanish wined and dined the vulture funds but very little business was ever done with the prevailing attitude being 'we dont screw over our own people'

they described Ireland as being wholeheartedly 'open for business'

Cal4567

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

i'v been reading up lately on Spain's version of NAMA, incidentally setup by the same guys who did NAMA Alvarez and Marshall

The spanish wined and dined the vulture funds but very little business was ever done with the prevailing attitude being 'we dont screw over our own people'

they described Ireland as being wholeheartedly 'open for business'

Without going around in circles but that's my experience. While there's been increased interest in Ireland over the last 2/3 years, the first wave of investors have been here since 2012/13, with a lot of employment for recently left NAMA employees. Frank Connolly's NAMA book describes it all much better than I could ever do.

cnocbui

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Did up an old stone farm house between 2015-2018. Never employed an engineer or any other professional. House was stripped to four bare walls reroofed, new floors, plumbing wiring, windows and doors. Drylined it, new stairs, solar panel, stove and oil heated. Turned it into a two bed house. It cost about 600 euro/ sqM. I did some of the work myself. It is now rented. I hate to even contemplate it now. It would run to way the wrong side of 100K and I have to chase every trades man I needed. I have a lady with two children in it. he is delighted with a modern well insulated ( but its D rated) house that is cheap to heat and run. But then I am one of those gouging heartless LL's that are out there.

All these things sound easy on paper, until you go and do them. It seems easy doing them in a recession, i had factored in a rental yield of 8-10% of costs to do it up, its hitting 16%

I have a 128 year old cut stone 'house' in the distant reaches of Connemara. I had someone recently interested who took his architect to view it, who estimated €500,000 to renovate.

I have no doubt that was for something that would end up gracing the front cover of an architecture magazine and would be put up for an award. I think my gut and caution was right. Even at a relatively paltry €300,000, I wouldn't be up for such a financial risk. Rental prospects would be dire, due to remoteness.

MacronvFrugals

Cal4567 wrote: »

Without going around in circles but that's my experience. While there's been increased interest in Ireland over the last 2/3 years, the first wave of investors have been here since 2012/13, with a lot of employment for recently left NAMA employees. Frank Connolly's NAMA book describes it all much better than I could ever do.

As time goes on i'm always reminded of the quote from Ian Kehoe's documentary 'The Great Irish Sell Off' - "It will be looked on as a period when Ireland panicked"

The mission creep into the burbs was always going to occur, an IT headline from last weekend -

Investment funds are becoming bigger property players in Dublin suburbs


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/investment-funds-are-becoming-bigger-property-players-in-dublin-suburbs-1.4558775

Murph85

the quicker solutions for them, include getting fair deal properties rented out, not the current penal level of taxation, that leaves them idle. There is another scheme, where normal houses, were converted into two properties, the elderly person or persons, get to stay in their home and you locate people in established areas and obviously construction time and cost is way cheaper than a new build...

If they wont do anything meaningful on the LPT and they wont, then perhaps incentivise the elderly to downsize, by paying out a few thousands, to cover the cost of the move, solicitor, stamp duty etc.

Allow apartments in the garden of properties, has been discussed a few years ago, it may surface again. These homes can be put up start to finish, in about one week.

Longer term, they are going to have to majorly start getting 15-16 year olds, into trades. The current farce of the leaving cert, being the be all and end all is a joke. Get them in at 15-16, pay them decent money when 18 and apprentices etc.

I mean the labour shortage is so ridiculous in construction, that you either use what you have, which is far less labour intensive, or you start getting thousand of construction workers back into dublin from abroad, where do they get housed though?

I believe in berlin in the 90's and possibly today, the workers and many were Irish, lived on the site, in large portacabins, that could be moved onto the next site, when that project was complete...

Murph85

hmmm wrote: »

The council are looking at cash flow, not value. It's spend 21 million now or 1 million. Who-ever is around in 10 years time can worry about value.

absolutely true, but fro a government position, open cheque books, given where we are skyrocketing to financially, isn't going to be an option for too much longer, I would have thought...

Murph85

Murph85 wrote: »

the quicker solutions for them, include getting fair deal properties rented out, not the current penal level of taxation, that leaves them idle. There is another scheme, where normal houses, were converted into two properties, the elderly person or persons, get to stay in their home and you locate people in established areas and obviously construction time and cost is way cheaper than a new build...

If they wont do anything meaningful on the LPT and they wont, then perhaps incentivise the elderly to downsize, by paying out a few thousands, to cover the cost of the move, solicitor, stamp duty etc.

Allow apartments in the garden of properties, has been discussed a few years ago, it may surface again. These homes can be put up start to finish, in about one week.

Longer term, they are going to have to majorly start getting 15-16 year olds, into trades. The current farce of the leaving cert, being the be all and end all is a joke. Get them in at 15-16, pay them decent money when 18 and apprentices etc.

I mean the labour shortage is so ridiculous in construction, that you either use what you have, which is far less labour intensive, or you start getting thousand of construction workers back into dublin from abroad, where do they get housed though?

I believe in berlin in the 90's and possibly today, the workers and many were Irish, lived on the site, in large portacabins, that could be moved onto the next site, when that project was complete...

Lets start build Shanghai
The bedroom as extension beside shed
Couple more floors on top of it ant then panoramic area on top of the shed roof.
You can buy couple holidays homes caravans and put one on top of another ! Budget option !
I am pretty sure many neighbours will happy enjoy your China town life style.
People should not live that way ! In normal country with normal economy every hard working person must afford buy house
If he cant that mean property is in buble

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

GeoDirectory do not count properties that they consider are for sale or for rent. Hence the difference with the census.

They reduced their vacancy numbers by almost 20k for sale and 20k for rent at a time when there was less than 5k for rent on the market.

This is not my interpretation- this is explained in the methodology which I have showed you many times.

Nonsense. That's your misinformation on GeoDirectory report.

enricoh

cnocbui wrote: »

I have a 128 year old cut stone 'house' in the distant reaches of Connemara. I had someone recently interested who took his architect to view it, who estimated €500,000 to renovate.

I have no doubt that was for something that would end up gracing the front cover of an architecture magazine and would be put up for an award. I think my gut and caution was right. Even at a relatively paltry €300,000, I wouldn't be up for such a financial risk. Rental prospects would be dire, due to remoteness.

My sister bought a holiday house along the Shannon a few years ago for sod all. She got a local oul lad that was on sites in England for donkeys years and retired keeping a few cattle. He plodded away at it when suited and transformed it.

If it was on the east coast it'd have easily cost 100k extra with a builder.
Only problem now is everyone wants to use it after getting spruced up!

hometruths

Rather than dragging the thread into another tit for tat with Marius can anybody else help me to understand the question of whether GeoDirectory include properties that are empty being for sale and for rent in their vacancy figures:

The difference of some 87k vacant properties between census and GeoDirectory and methodology is explained thus:

Drilling down further, however, it is possible to explain some of this substantial difference. The CSO has provided some data on the reasons why dwellings were vacant at the time of the Census of Population for a small sample of vacant buildings (i.e. around 57,000 dwellings or close to one-third of the total). This one-third of the vacant stock includes dwellings classified as for sale (10,948 dwellings), for rent (10,350), owner in nursing home (4,165), renovation work underway (3,678), owner in hospital (1,469), and owner with relatives (847).
Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e. properties waiting to be sold or rented out. In the aggregate they represent a total of around 31,500 properties out of the 57,000, or 55%. This implies that 25,500 of this total would be deemed to be vacant. As these explanations were only provided for one-third of vacant dwellings (if it is assumed that 55% of the remaining two-thirds were similarly classified, leaving 45% as representing the true vacant total), this would reduce the CSO figure for the number of vacant dwellings considerably to around 83,000, which would be closer to the GeoDirectory figure of 96,243

I read the above as GeoDirectory are saying the difference between them and the census is that Geo do not count all the categories of vacancy that the census do, and those categories make up approx 55% and the remaining 45% is what GeoDirectory consider to be the true vacant total, and thus what they report.

Does anybody else other than Marius think i am misunderstanding the above? Is there another way to read it?

Or does anybody else agree with me and read it the same way as I do?

Any responses much appreciated, i am not trying to drag others into a petty squabble, I genuinely want to understand the figures, it might seem trivial but the reporting of vacancies is actually a very big deal in the context of a broken property market.

awec

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

DataDude

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

I've been inside, lovely house.
Former home of Gerald Keane, you're attached to Dermot Desmond too!

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

Reins

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

awec

schmittel wrote: »

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

Yes.