2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

derekgine3 · 07-05-2021 08:02PM

I'll try be positive about things:

Seeing quite a few properties hit the market in multiple areas in Dublin within the past two weeks.
Restrictions on viewings haven't even been officially lifted yet, do many people here predict a lot more stock to come on stream within the coming weeks and throughout the summer?

If i was a gambling man, i would say yes, whether it's enough to modestly drop prices by a couple of % remains to be seen.

yagan · 07-05-2021 08:07PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

I'll try be positive about things:

Seeing quite a few properties hit the market in multiple areas in Dublin within the past two weeks.
Restrictions on viewings haven't even been officially lifted yet, do many people here predict a lot more stock to come on stream within the coming weeks and throughout the summer?

If i was a gambling man, i would say yes, whether it's enough to modestly drop prices by a couple of % remains to be seen.

You could be right. And sadly due to Covid there will probably more executor sales than in normal times.

I've been watching a few target areas too and I'm not seeing a volume increase yet, but on the other hand there hasn't been much of a price rise either.

I find using proper.ie handy for gauging figures for the last two years.

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 08:29PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

I'll try be positive about things:

Seeing quite a few properties hit the market in multiple areas in Dublin within the past two weeks.
Restrictions on viewings haven't even been officially lifted yet, do many people here predict a lot more stock to come on stream within the coming weeks and throughout the summer?

If i was a gambling man, i would say yes, whether it's enough to modestly drop prices by a couple of % remains to be seen.

The only thing is demand, demand will also rocket up if people who were on pup payments come back to the market they have essentially been locked out for the the majority of the lockdown. Its hard to know what way things will turn out.

Marius34 · 07-05-2021 08:35PM

derekgine3 wrote: »

I'll try be positive about things:

Seeing quite a few properties hit the market in multiple areas in Dublin within the past two weeks.
Restrictions on viewings haven't even been officially lifted yet, do many people here predict a lot more stock to come on stream within the coming weeks and throughout the summer?

If i was a gambling man, i would say yes, whether it's enough to modestly drop prices by a couple of % remains to be seen.

If we look at the both sides of equation on demand vs supply. I fairly confident there will record high demands on second half of this year from accumulated First Time Buyers (since Celtic tiger).
What I'm not sure on level of demands from Council and Investors.
What I'm not sure on level of supplies hitting the market from all parties.

combat14 · 07-05-2021 08:42PM

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing is demand, demand will also rocket up if people who were on pup payments come back to the market they have essentially been locked out for the the majority of the lockdown. Its hard to know what way things will turn out.

thats if banks will be rushing to give out mortages to those who have been on covid payments for the last year....

could put the brakes on demand for another 6 months or so

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 08:43PM

combat14 wrote: »

thats if banks will be rushing to give out mortages to those who have been on covid payments for the last year....

I think their is a hiatus of 3 to 6 months of them being back in work before they are eligable again. I guess it depends as well on how effective the vaccine it it works well hopefully we will not have to go back into lockdown

combat14 · 07-05-2021 08:53PM

Marius34 wrote: »

If we look at the both sides of equation on demand vs supply. I fairly confident there will record high demands on second half of this year from accumulated First Time Buyers (since Celtic tiger).
What I'm not sure on level of demands from Council and Investors.
What I'm not sure on level of supplies hitting the market from all parties.

investors might have to be put back in their box and stopped from buying up properties en masse if the ff-fg government are to survive the next election

this will have to be done shortly - the level of public outrage even amongst the elderly with houses who typically dont care is unreal

mcsean2163 · 07-05-2021 08:54PM

bubblypop wrote: »

Very thinly veiled there.....
It's not 'new arrivals ' that have caused any housing shortage.

It's not racist to have an immigration policy. IMHO, we've benefited enormously from immigration. It's a massive positive but if the system is falling apart the government could easily institute a 6 month immigration pause to enable housing resolution. I don't see why it would be that big a deal if it was phrased in a positive manner.

Then again our politicians are pretty incompetent...

cnocbui · 07-05-2021 09:01PM

The REITs being essential as funders of developments is bogus. In 2019 REITS bought up apartments that had been completed, en masse, without them being offered to the market, bought finished houses and bought apartments under construction.

So egregious was this that the UN criticised the Irish government for it.

First-time buyers will be deprived of the chance to buy almost 300 apartments at one of the country’s biggest new developments.

The 282 properties, which are still under construction at the Citywest Quarter development just outside Dublin, have been put up for sale in one block by builder Cairn Homes.

...

The proposed Cairn sale is the latest in a series of similar transactions. Last week, the country’s biggest landlord, a property investment company called Ires Reit, snapped up 118 family homes in the Dublin suburbs in a single deal from builder Glenveagh.
...
The UN recently criticised the practice of selling homes to investors en masse.

In a scathing assessment of the housing market, UN special rapporteur on the right to adequate housing Leilani Farha wrote to the Government, accusing it of facilitating the “financialisation of housing” through preferential tax laws and through weak tenant protections, among other measures.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/cuckoo-funds-elbow-young-buyers-out-of-housing-market-37973743.html

hometruths · 07-05-2021 09:06PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The REITs being essential as funders of developments is bogus. In 2019 REITS bought up apartments that had been completed, en masse, without them being offered to the market, bought finished houses and bought apartments under construction.

So egregious was this that the UN criticised the Irish government for it.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/cuckoo-funds-elbow-young-buyers-out-of-housing-market-37973743.html

If the UN criticised this in 2019 what on earth lit the touch paper in Maynooth to kick off all the reaction this week?

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 09:20PM

schmittel wrote: »

If the UN criticised this in 2019 what on earth lit the touch paper in Maynooth to kick off all the reaction this week?

I think because that development went to market with some people having already bought while others were on a waiting list. I think the developments in the article never went to market.

Amadan Dubh · 07-05-2021 09:26PM

schmittel wrote: »

If the UN criticised this in 2019 what on earth lit the touch paper in Maynooth to kick off all the reaction this week?

Maybe all the positive news regarding covid and being able to plan for summer etc. means people are starting to focus on normal life again and all its problems, with housing being the single biggest political issue bar maybe climate change.

Marius34 · 07-05-2021 09:46PM

combat14 wrote: »

investors might have to be put back in their box and stopped from buying up properties en masse if the ff-fg government are to survive the next election

this will have to be done shortly - the level of public outrage even amongst the elderly with houses who typically dont care is unreal

many things might happen, but is it really likely to happen shortly...

yagan · 07-05-2021 09:47PM

<SNIP>

Mod Note

Not for this forum thanks. There's an entire forum dedicated to discussion of Covid where I'm sure you're welcome to discuss the psychological impacts.

Bass Reeves · 07-05-2021 10:12PM

PropQueries wrote: »

So costs have increased by over 100% since 2018 as that’s the difference between Sisk Livings costs in 2018 compared to DCC stated costs this year?

Small builder ( foreign national) that is in the house extension market was pricing at 1400/sq meter last year. He has a lot of work lined up so quoted 2k/sqM for a few job's. He quoted for 6 jobs got 4 of them.

Materials are supposed to have increased 25-30% in last 6-8 month

WhiteWalls · 07-05-2021 10:49PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Small builder ( foreign national) that is in the house extension market was pricing at 1400/sq meter last year. He has a lot of work lined up so quoted 2k/sqM for a few job's. He quoted for 6 jobs got 4 of them.

Materials are supposed to have increased 25-30% in last 6-8 month

Is materials going up a way of somehow regulating supply of houses and everyone in the building industry basically milking the system?

Simplified version but why would developers/builders build enough houses if doing so will bring down demand and profit margins?

Villa05 · 07-05-2021 11:31PM

EddieN75 wrote:

1/3 of all tenants are getting the bulk of their rent paid by the government (taxpayers) While the other 2/3 are paying extortionate rents and taxes too.
Who sounds like they have a better deal

Landlords/ladies

mcsean2163 wrote:

It's not racist to have an immigration policy. IMHO, we've benefited enormously from immigration. It's a massive positive but if the system is falling apart the government could easily institute a 6 month immigration pause to enable housing resolution. I don't see why it would be that big a deal if it was phrased in a positive manner.

I think your confusing cause and effect
Would it not be housing policy rather than immigration that has failed

mcsean2163 · 08-05-2021 12:30AM

Villa05 wrote: »

Landlords/ladies

I think your confusing cause and effect
Would it not be housing policy rather than immigration that has failed

The government and our housing policy have failed and we are now seeing the consequences.

combat14 · 08-05-2021 12:43AM

We would support a percentage of houses in new developments for sale to first-time buyers,’ says cuckoo funds group

https://m.independent.ie/news/we-would-support-a-percentage-of-houses-in-new-developments-for-sale-to-first-time-buyers-sayscuckoo-funds-group-40399417.html

how kind of them ....

and they are only seeking modest not nose bleed profits too. ....

no wonder fg/ff are so keen on the vulture funds lol

Amadan Dubh · 08-05-2021 08:59AM

combat14 wrote: »

We would support a percentage of houses in new developments for sale to first-time buyers,’ says cuckoo funds group

https://m.independent.ie/news/we-would-support-a-percentage-of-houses-in-new-developments-for-sale-to-first-time-buyers-sayscuckoo-funds-group-40399417.html

how kind of them ....

and they are only seeking modest not nose bleed profits too. ....

no wonder fg/ff are so keen on the vulture funds lol

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.thejournal.ie/investor-funds-housing-crisis-5431560-May2021/?amp=1

“Where it is viable to do so, we would support the concept of a percentage of houses in a residential estate development being required to be available for sale to first time buyers and individual home purchasers generally.”

Where it is viable to do so, the proletariat can have some of the crumbs from our table. Also, "the concept" of individuals being allowed to buy their own home. I'm sorry Pat Farrell, but you are part of the pig elites from Animal Farm. Vultures with their snouts so buried in the trough they do not realise how despicable they sound.

We are not in dire economic straits like 2011, needing to go cap in hand on international roadshows looking to get a few borrowers out of negative equity. Jobs growth has been phenomenal and is projected to remain so (for now anyway), as well as the population growth projecting to rise substantially and, finally, savings are high while individual debt is low. We do not need these investors in the same way as before so should not be afraid to start charging them a premium for doing business in Ireland rather than rolling out the red carpet for them with tax benefits and other things.

Robson99 · 08-05-2021 09:02AM

WhiteWalls wrote: »

Is materials going up a way of somehow regulating supply of houses and everyone in the building industry basically milking the system?

Simplified version but why would developers/builders build enough houses if doing so will bring down demand and profit margins?

A lot of things are adding to the costs.
Material shortages
Shipping costs
Some gob****e preventing felling licences in this country
Labour shortage.

House prices are only going one way and that's up. Developers will stop building if they are not making their margins

Amadan Dubh · 08-05-2021 09:06AM

Robson99 wrote: »

A lot of things are adding to the costs.
Material shortages
Shipping costs
Some gob****e preventing felling licences in this country
Labour shortage.

House prices are only going one way and that's up. Developers will stop building if they are not making their margins

But there is an affordability ceiling with salaries and credit availability. Also, supply at such lows the past year with a lot of individuals putting off selling due to covid restrictions and Brexit uncertainty will start putting their houses on the market for sale. More supply more likely to reduce prices, ignoring the new builds for a moment.

beggars_bush · 08-05-2021 09:30AM

Huge issue with labour shortages for builders at the moment

combat14 · 08-05-2021 09:45AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Huge issue with labour shortages for builders at the moment

seems to be shortages for retail and hospitality too could be time to cut HAP, COVID payments and the dole and incentivise people to work again

then again hard to be motivated when there is no hope of owning a home

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMebdHd6h/

Cal4567 · 08-05-2021 10:01AM

https://thecurrency.news/articles/46386/this-land-is-their-land-noonan-omics-cuckoo-funds-and-the-irish-housing-crisis/

This is behind a paywall but seems to have honed in on how this has really been government policy for the last decade. Given the headline, a nod to the Woody Guthrie song, and first few lines, it probably has Michael Noonan down as the instigator of all this. Another retired politician who won't be remembered fondly by many, and not just for this issue either.

That comment from the IIP as reported in today's INDO, my god, it sounds like an Anglo Irish aristocrat circa 1880, who were trying to be benevolent. I think another poster mentioned it, but a lot of the INDO stuff this week seems to be free to read.

Bass Reeves · 08-05-2021 10:32AM

WhiteWalls wrote: »

Is materials going up a way of somehow regulating supply of houses and everyone in the building industry basically milking the system?

Simplified version but why would developers/builders build enough houses if doing so will bring down demand and profit margins?

It's a mixed bag. Materials are gone up because of shortages and added costs due to transportation and COVID. Labour has gone up because in price due to activity. We have reached shortages in skilled labour. The majority of these work as subcontractors so they have upped there rates. As well as subcontracting your labour becomes more profitable it encourages tradespeople to leave permanent employment and move into subcontracting. It called market forces.

After COVID and I said this last year that savings would spark a rise in home improvement work. It's very easy to subcontract into this area. This draws labour from house building. There is a finate amount of labour in the he building industry. We have been at 100% employment since before COVID. I would not want to be replacing a bathroom or doing up s few rooms for the next 3-5years. However nothing cures high prices like high prices.

When any area is extremely profitable any workers/developers in that area will want to maximize there output. It's not in there interest not to.

Anybody that think's thatSisk or any major contractor would build houses in the present environment for 2018 prices that were maybe tendered for 8-20 months before that is having hallucinations

Hubertj · 08-05-2021 10:42AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

But there is an affordability ceiling with salaries and credit availability. Also, supply at such lows the past year with a lot of individuals putting off selling due to covid restrictions and Brexit uncertainty will start putting their houses on the market for sale. More supply more likely to reduce prices, ignoring the new builds for a moment.

This is all part of the problem. There is inflation in raw materials through demand and probably some speculation too. There are significant supply chain challenges globally. From what I have read there is a construction skills shortage developing throughout Europe so increasing capacity through increasing workforce is unlikely (where do you house additional immigrants). Regarding funds, unfortunately they are needed to provide finance for some construction projects. Banks haven’t and won’t provide the level of finance required. Look at many European countries and there is similar happening. Sh*tshow with no easy resolution, despite what some opposition parties say.

Mic 1972 · 08-05-2021 11:03AM

Regarding long term leasing to the council, it's important to point out that a lot of estates - especially apartment blocks and gated estates - have restrictions that don't allow for social housing.
Investment companies have no interest acquiring random residential properties that cannot be rented out to the council. They will focus solely on new builds - new estates or new apartment blocks - so that they can set their own management rules and allow for social housing.

First time buyers are better off looking for second hand properties inside established estates where there is no competition from multinational investors and also there is no risk for social house next door.

Villa05 · 08-05-2021 11:20AM

If you get a chance. Have a listen to Pat Kenny from Thursday section

Why are so called vulture funds buying up property here?

(sorry linking on the phone app does not work for me. html without tags appears to be auto rejected and does not get posted)

Lorcan sirr and Mark mcsharry Ff

Check out the terms of the enhanced long term leases the councils are engaged in
It's much worse for the taxpayer than we had speculated. We could be approaching 6 or 7 houses being built for the outlay being spent on 1 of these over 20 years and have nothing at the end of it

Lorcan reckons the maynooth estate will be leased back to the council. Did someone here say the council was the underbidder and is there a link to this

Marc Mcsharry has an interesting slip of the tongue on 16 minutes
In trying to say Gov and councils should be building houses, he says buying then purchasing before eventually settling on building.
Has he left the cat out of the bag?

Props gets alot of hassle here for his opinions, but he has a consistent habit of calling it correctly

Villa05 · 08-05-2021 11:26AM

Bass Reeves wrote:

There is a finate amount of labour in the he building industry. We have been at 100% employment since before COVID.

Sssshhhh, you've just undermined fifballs dole scrounger argument.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1