2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

EddieN75 · 07-05-2021 07:53AM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Could we move away from the refugee nonsense please... I'm more concerned by tvis country and the reientoess problems... housing, health, infrastructure all a farce

It's all relevant when the supply of housing is miniscule.

Some are living with parents until late 30s trying to save to buy an ever inflating priced house while next the keys of next door were handed out. You can't honestly expect people not to notice what is going on around them.

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 08:01AM

schmittel wrote: »

It is odd that if we are discussing why MNCs invest in Ireland we hear it is because of our educated/skilled workforce, whereas if we are discussing rising immigration we hear it is because of our uneducated/unskilled workforce.

There is a shortage of workers with particular skills in certain areas of STEM. Name any country that doesn’t require skilled immigrants? Try again

07-05-2021 08:09AM

EddieN75 wrote: »

It's all relevant when the supply of housing is miniscule.

Some are living with parents until late 30s trying to save to buy an ever inflating priced house while next the keys of next door were handed out. You can't honestly expect people not to notice what is going on around them.

There are thousands of people in this country getting 'keys handed to them' don't be worrying over a few hundred refugees, who will live anywhere unlike our own, who want to live in the city centre around the corner from their ma.

L1011 · 07-05-2021 08:13AM

Immigration chat to Humanities, as has been instructed before. Idbatterim thread-banned for three rules breaches in one morning

hometruths · 07-05-2021 08:20AM

Hubertj wrote: »

There is a shortage of workers with particular skills in certain areas of STEM. Name any country that doesn’t require skilled immigrants? Try again

I don't know of any country that doesn't require skilled immigrants, but as you know, I am skeptical if the principal attraction of our country is the workforce. With good reason, IMO.

Our immigration numbers have rocketed over the last decade in tandem with MNC investment rocketing. How closely linked are they? Doesn't seem crazy to think the MNCs are importing huge numbers of employees as well as their intellectual property.

It is worth questioning the trade offs in a housing context. The advantages of an increased corporation tax/income tax take are seemingly obvious, but if it is directly contributing to our social housing spend doubling and pricing a generation out of the market it seems reasonable to ask is it worth it?

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 08:35AM

schmittel wrote: »

I don't know of any country that doesn't require skilled immigrants, but as you know, I am skeptical if the principal attraction of our country is the workforce. With good reason, IMO.

Our immigration numbers have rocketed over the last decade in tandem with MNC investment rocketing. How closely linked are they? Doesn't seem crazy to think the MNCs are importing huge numbers of employees as well as their intellectual property.

It is worth questioning the trade offs in a housing context. The advantages of an increased corporation tax/income tax take are seemingly obvious, but if it is directly contributing to our social housing spend doubling and pricing a generation out of the market it seems reasonable to ask is it worth it?

It’s all about poor planning in the development of medium to long term housing policy for a growing population. Bringing the nationality of a person who needs somewhere to live is not relevant in my opinion. If we go back 10-15 years would population estimates for 2021 be fairly accurate? So if there is some sort of housing shortages is that down to poor planning or immigration? Easy answer.

JimmyVik · 07-05-2021 08:39AM

Just heard yesterday that a house that went for sale down the road here last week is already sale agreed with the council.
A local couple living with their parents were bidding on it.
The first bid was asking price.
They bid 10% over asking straight away because it was near to the parents and they thought it was worth that to them.
Then the council came in and bid 25% over asking. Sale done. The couple werent even asked if they wanted to bid again, not that they could afford to anyway.

07-05-2021 08:55AM

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s all about poor planning in the development of medium to long term housing policy for a growing population. Bringing the nationality of a person who needs somewhere to live is not relevant in my opinion. If we go back 10-15 years would population estimates for 2021 be fairly accurate? So if there is some sort of housing shortages is that down to poor planning or immigration? Easy answer.

10 years ago we thought we'd never need to build a house again we had so many empties. :pac:

If you said we need to be building housing while we were cutting public sector pay and people were emigrating, you'd have been committed to an insane asylum.

Amadan Dubh · 07-05-2021 08:58AM

schmittel wrote: »

It is odd that if we are discussing why MNCs invest in Ireland we hear it is because of our educated/skilled workforce, whereas if we are discussing rising we hear it is because of our uneducated/unskilled workforce.

This is a point I made the other week; we are bringing in people from other EU countries to do jobs in the MNCs. It is IDA spoof that MNCs are not here for predominantly tax reasons but the educated workforce reason is entirely false. Otherwise we wouldn't have such high immigration from other EU countries to work with the MNCs. I'm still wondering for how long we can continue to bring in EU workers to Ireland to service their own markets and I do feel we could lose thousands of these MNC workers over the medium term. I mean, there is no strong reason beyond tax that a Spanish person moves away from their family and friends to Dublin in order to work for the Spanish market, speaking Spanish in their job in Dublin! Why is this important in a property market discussion? The demand for rentals has ballooned with a direct link to this mass immigration and the build-to-leave empty sector is literally targeting this swollen demand.

yagan · 07-05-2021 09:23AM

<SNIP>

Villa05 · 07-05-2021 09:26AM

JimmyVik wrote:

Just heard yesterday that a house that went for sale down the road here last week is already sale agreed with the council. A local couple living with their parents were bidding on it. The first bid was asking price. They bid 10% over asking straight away because it was near to the parents and they thought it was worth that to them. Then the council came in and bid 25% over asking. Sale done. The couple werent even asked if they wanted to bid again, not that they could afford to anyway.

You are not too far away from the end when you bite the hand that feeds.

There is not too much time left in this madness

Ozark707 · 07-05-2021 09:33AM

Villa05 wrote: »

You are not too far away from the end when you bite the hand that feeds.

There is not too much time left in this madness

Good bit left I am afraid. Councils have openly stated money is not an issue and the list requiring housing is continuing to grow. Do you think the demand for social housing will subside given the policies of the government?

Villa05 · 07-05-2021 09:34AM

Amadan Dubh wrote:

This is a point I made the other week; we are bringing in people from other EU countries to do jobs in the MNCs. It is IDA spoof that MNCs are not here for predominantly tax reasons but the educated workforce reason is entirely false. Otherwise we wouldn't have such high immigration from other EU countries to work with the MNCs. I'm still wondering for how long we can continue to bring in EU workers to Ireland to service their own markets and I do feel we could lose thousands of these MNC workers over the medium term. I mean, there is no strong reason beyond tax that a Spanish person moves away from their family and friends to Dublin in order to work for the Spanish market, speaking Spanish in their job in Dublin! Why is this important in a property market discussion? The demand for rentals has ballooned with a direct link to this mass immigration and the build-to-leave empty sector is literally targeting this swollen demand.

MNC want a pool of people competing against each other for each position, this has been the scenario for some time for most positions as they generally offer better terms than indigenous industry

One should be asking why our education system seems incapable of teaching our own language, nevermind anyone else's

I know of several Pole's working menial jobs fluent in at least 3 languages and capable of learning more as they work with other non nationals

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 09:41AM

Villa05 wrote: »

You are not too far away from the end when you bite the hand that feeds.

There is not too much time left in this madness

Unfortunately I think there is a while to run yet, another couple of years. Short term housing needs with short sited policy. On top of that I fear whatever action is taken to restrict funds/REITs will have unintended consequences, further restricting supply for a period. Action is required but I think they will take the incorrect decisions.. again

yagan · 07-05-2021 09:45AM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

10 years ago we thought we'd never need to build a house again we had so many empties. :pac:

If you said we need to be building housing while we were cutting public sector pay and people were emigrating, you'd have been committed to an insane asylum.

I was working on the frontend of development during the bertie bubble, could see the empties pile up and remain unsold for years before people believed it. I returned to ireland a couple of years ago working in the same front end sector and it's deja vu with apartment blocks in Dublin.

The public belief that there is a shortage seems as equally embedded now as it was in 06/07, but the cracks are starting to appear.

There a public innocence back in the bertie years, so saving face in the bust saved a lot of people from going to jail, but to be fooled again by the same crooks is to bring major anger on the streets.

Removing a citizen path to ownership in their own country is grounds for public revolt.

timmyntc · 07-05-2021 09:47AM

Ozark707 wrote: »

Good bit left I am afraid. Councils have openly stated money is not an issue and the list requiring housing is continuing to grow. Do you think the demand for social housing will subside given the policies of the government?

The thing about social housing is that the more you buy the more you need.
The list will never be cleared it will keep growing and growing.

combat14 · 07-05-2021 09:48AM

‘It’s capitalism on steroids – I want to buy a house in Maynooth, not rent one from an investment firm’

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/its-capitalism-on-steroids-i-want-to-buy-a-house-in-maynooth-not-rent-one-from-an-investment-firm-40396110.html

title seems to reflect the general mood tho Leo and FG still in thrall to the vulture funds

anecdotally talk of emigration as soon as possible seems to be on the increase among young people .. sounds like people have enough of the property and rental BS that is going on here .. whether its any better elsewhere remains to be seen

Villa05 · 07-05-2021 09:49AM

<SNIP>

Cyrus · 07-05-2021 09:52AM

combat14 wrote: »

‘It’s capitalism on steroids – I want to buy a house in Maynooth, not rent one from an investment firm’

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/its-capitalism-on-steroids-i-want-to-buy-a-house-in-maynooth-not-rent-one-from-an-investment-firm-40396110.html

title seems to reflect the general mood tho Leo and FG still in thrall to the vulture funds

anecdotally talk of emigration as soon as possible seems to be on the increase among young people .. sounds like people have enough of the property and rental BS that is going on here .. whether its any better elsewhere remains to be seen

people dont know what they want to be fair, the argument that we need more institutional landlords like the german market seems to have gone away now for example.

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

So can someone explain it to me? In simple terms i.e. should a single person on the mean full time salary be able to buy a 3 bed semi in Cabra or something else?

Genuine question as i see a lot of complaining but very little concrete to represent what people suggest the market should look like.

MacronvFrugals · 07-05-2021 10:04AM

Some interesting quotes from the FF parliamentary party meeting this week

Yes, it is. If we **** this one up, it’s all over. We need to make our mark.

“There is a genuine fear and I would have this fear. Do we have enough time. Will we be given enough time to do it. Fast forward 12 months, hopefully the pandemic will be a thing of the past, and will have forgotten that construction had been closed, and people will be asking, where are the houses?

”

“Fianna Fáil is not the party of big landlord. This is a fight of a generation, who are embarrassed and humiliated that they have to return home to their parents.”

https://www.thejournal.ie/fianna-fail-housing-crisis-5430228-May2021/

PropQueries · 07-05-2021 10:09AM

Cyrus wrote: »

people dont know what they want to be fair, the argument that we need more institutional landlords like the german market seems to have gone away now for example.

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

So can someone explain it to me? In simple terms i.e. should a single person on the mean full time salary be able to buy a 3 bed semi in Cabra or something else?

Genuine question as i see a lot of complaining but very little concrete to represent what people suggest the market should look like.

I think the proposed affordable housing bill answered that question. €225k in Co. Tipperary and €450k in the Dublin City (i.e. Cabra).

What accounts for the €225k difference per standard three-bed semi between Dublin and Tipperary? Quality of build? construction salaries? Materials? Land?

It can’t be land as there’s plenty of that all around the city centre and plenty inside the M50.

There is absolutely no reason why developers can’t build for near Co. Tipperary prices in Cabra IMO

And let’s put this €450k ‘affordable’ price in perspective. That’s c. €100k more than Cairn Homes average selling price per unit last year.

Bass Reeves · 07-05-2021 10:09AM

Cyrus wrote: »

people dont know what they want to be fair, the argument that we need more institutional landlords like the german market seems to have gone away now for example.

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

So can someone explain it to me? In simple terms i.e. should a single person on the mean full time salary be able to buy a 3 bed semi in Cabra or something else?

Genuine question as i see a lot of complaining but very little concrete to represent what people suggest the market should look like.

The answer to the single person is probably no. As you say now the love for the German institutional investors has gone. It never made sense anyway that any investor could make money renting cheaper than smaller LL's.

I have a fairly good wage in the late 80's but I could not have afforded to buy a house in Limerick city. I was in my mid to late 20's. 1-1 lads did that either got help from there parents or were a few years older and we had been working since our teens. Highest rate of tax was 58% Inc PRSI and levies.

When rent and houses are cheap people do not want them and visa versa is true as well. Houses are now build to a much higher specifications. Most cost is front loaded now onto a buyer such as heating costs and fit out compared to 30 years ago. Certification is probably adding 20k+ to house costs. The only hope is that strong prices will increase supply sharply and reduce prices. But Dublin will remain a problem.

Villa05 · 07-05-2021 10:09AM

Hubertj wrote:

Unfortunately I think there is a while to run yet, another couple of years. Short term housing needs with short sited policy. On top of that I fear whatever action is taken to restrict funds/REITs will have unintended consequences, further restricting supply for a period. Action is required but I think they will take the incorrect decisions.. again

Too many vested interests left behind.
They will start to turn on each other.
Media has declared war. Paywall has been dropped for opinion pieces attacking current policy and push notified on our phones
Politicians have turned on each other.

Locking the gates on the Maynooth estate on prime time is a seminal moment.

There was an illusion that we were all getting a dividend from the last bubble. Its becoming increasingly clear this one will cost everyone

yagan · 07-05-2021 10:11AM

Cyrus wrote: »

people dont know what they want to be fair, the argument that we need more institutional landlords like the german market seems to have gone away now for example.

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

So can someone explain it to me? In simple terms i.e. should a single person on the mean full time salary be able to buy a 3 bed semi in Cabra or something else?

Genuine question as i see a lot of complaining but very little concrete to represent what people suggest the market should look like.

The day we have german and danish style renting terms is the day we can make a comparison.

What's going on now outright theft by the Irish landlord class represented by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail in the name of reducing the waiting list, even though their intervention only creates more barriers to home ownership and the security that goes with it.

Shelga · 07-05-2021 10:16AM

selassie wrote: »

I emailed him last week and got a response, it was pretty generic about the investment funds though.

I should have said, also, that as he is a Minister in possibly the highest profile brief, he is no doubt bombarded with emails and questions from all over the country, but doesn't he have a team of people working for him for precisely this purpose?

A complete absence of any kind of response to me in 3 months, even a generic template from a lackey (I received one from one of them saying my query had been received, but that was literally it) speaks to a larger impression of crap management in his team, and crap management of the country.

He probably only responded to you as the investment funds thing has caught fire this month. He's been in the job almost a year and the best he has come up with is government intervention in keeping prices propped up, to deliver 1500 homes a year. It's so pathetic, I don't know how he isn't embarrassed to show his face in public.

derekgine3 · 07-05-2021 10:23AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Just heard yesterday that a house that went for sale down the road here last week is already sale agreed with the council.
A local couple living with their parents were bidding on it.
The first bid was asking price.
They bid 10% over asking straight away because it was near to the parents and they thought it was worth that to them.
Then the council came in and bid 25% over asking. Sale done. The couple werent even asked if they wanted to bid again, not that they could afford to anyway.

Not many things invoke a response from me but this boils my blood.

It has happened countless times to my daughter and son-in law within the past year, countless bids on houses in Dublin 7 all ended up going up for well over asking and in some cases there was no even offer to counter bid. We're not sure if all were council purchases but we know of at least 5 occasions where it was.

Whilst we have seen a decent amount of supply come on board in D7 within the past two weeks and expect a lot more when restrictions abate, it will probably not be enough to correct house prices until some kind of blocking of vulture funds/DCC is implemented.

Shelga · 07-05-2021 10:40AM

Cyrus wrote: »

people dont know what they want to be fair, the argument that we need more institutional landlords like the german market seems to have gone away now for example.

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

So can someone explain it to me? In simple terms i.e. should a single person on the mean full time salary be able to buy a 3 bed semi in Cabra or something else?

Genuine question as i see a lot of complaining but very little concrete to represent what people suggest the market should look like.

I agree with you, and of course it is still a complex situation, despite the failings of FF/FG. I would be wary of falling into the trap of going on a march out of anger, with no idea about solutions or how to make anything better.

So any movement would need to have a few key demands that are realistic and can be implemented if the will is there:

1. STOP giving tax breaks to investment firms- it is just enraging that a German pension fund pays no stamp duty or CGT, or tax on rental income, when plebs are saddled up to their eyeballs with taxes on top of the cost of a house. Limit the number of houses that can be bought in these estates to something like 5%- not the laughable 70% proposed by Darragh O'Brien. Here, I fully acknowledge that I'm not an economist and am very interested in hearing more details, but Germany and New Zealand have managed to bring in laws that stop this kind of thing, so why can't we?

2. Ban councils having unlimited money to buy houses over normal working people. Again I am simplifying, but how is it legal that a local authority can spend €600k of our money in rent to a vulture fund over 25 years, with absolutely nothing to show for it in the end? Make it so that they are only allowed to spend up to X amount on rent, if there is nothing to show for it. I don't understand why they don't build their own houses with that money.

3. Tax vacant properties- this has been banged on about for years and years now. They do it in Copenhagen, now do it here.

4. Build 8-10 storey apartment blocks in and around the city centre, and make it cost €1k to lodge an objection. We do not have the range of housing that we need- I, as a single person, do not need a 3 bedroom semi-d, yet one of those in a bad area is the type of thing I can afford, rather than an apartment near work.

Basically just do everything Rory Hearne talks about in this article: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/ireland-investment-housing-5428746-May2021/

RichardAnd · 07-05-2021 10:41AM

derekgine3 wrote: »

Not many things invoke a response from me but this boils my blood.

It has happened countless times to my daughter and son-in law within the past year, countless bids on houses in Dublin 7 all ended up going up for well over asking and in some cases there was no even offer to counter bid. We're not sure if all were council purchases but we know of at least 5 occasions where it was.

Whilst we have seen a decent amount of supply come on board in D7 within the past two weeks and expect a lot more when restrictions abate, it will probably not be enough to correct house prices until some kind of blocking of vulture funds/DCC is implemented.

This is one of those topics that has been put out of public discourse because it's not politically correct. If one attempts to question the ethical nature of the council's out-biding working people to provide social housing, they will be attacked by an army of lefties.

This is why we are in the state we are in. If open and honest discourse cannot happen, then the powers that be cannot be held to task. Screaming "alt-right" or accusing someone of being a follower of a certain Austrian dictator is maddeningly short-sighted, and those who do it are merely useful idiots.

I don't often rant, but I needed to get that off my chest...

Sierra Oscar · 07-05-2021 10:42AM

derekgine3 wrote: »

It has happened countless times to my daughter and son-in law within the past year, countless bids on houses in Dublin 7 all ended up going up for well over asking and in some cases there was no even offer to counter bid. We're not sure if all were council purchases but we know of at least 5 occasions where it was.

From dealing with requisitions on titles for the MUD Act I know for a fact that DCC in particular are hoovering up multiple properties, particularly apartments, on a regular basis. Usually purchased directly by DCC and handed over to housing charities to manage the leases.

It is causing serious issues in apartment complexes in particular. You regularly have cases where there are recovering addicts and other vulnerable persons being housed in multi-unit developments that are not used to dealing with the sort of anti-social behaviour that comes with addiction and so on.

We truly have a dysfunctional housing market when the Government, through local authorities, is competing with first time buyers by taking a huge chunk of the limited housing supply off the market instead of actually funding constriction themselves. DCC in particular are putting bids in way above the asking value to secure housing stock. They are directly contributing to the inflation we are seeing in the market.

Then to make matters worse, a lot of the stock being purchased is being handed over to voluntary housing bodies to house their own clients and is bypassing the housing waiting list in the process. DCC clearly don't want the hassle of having to deal with leases and so on anymore. The end result is that you have addicts, homeless people and persons recently released from prison being housed before your family with two parents working and three children who are in low income jobs and who can barely afford to make ends meet and need social housing. It just all seems so unfair to me.

Then to compound the issue even further you have the voluntary housing bodies housing vunerable people in areas far removed from the city centre despite the fact that the services they need access to on a daily basis, such as addiction support services, are exclusively based in the city centre.

The whole thing is a dysfunctional farce.

Amadan Dubh · 07-05-2021 10:52AM

Shelga wrote: »

I agree with you, and of course it is still a complex situation, despite the failings of FF/FG. I would be wary of falling into the trap of going on a march out of anger, with no idea about solutions or how to make anything better.

So any movement would need to have a few key demands that are realistic and can be implemented if the will is there:

1. STOP giving tax breaks to investment firms- it is just enraging that a German pension fund pays no stamp duty or CGT, or tax on rental income, when plebs are saddled up to their eyeballs with taxes on top of the cost of a house. Limit the number of houses that can be bought in these estates to something like 5%- not the laughable 70% proposed by Darragh O'Brien. Here, I fully acknowledge that I'm not an economist and am very interested in hearing more details, but Germany and New Zealand have managed to bring in laws that stop this kind of thing, so why can't we?

2. Ban councils having unlimited money to buy houses over normal working people. Again I am simplifying, but how is it legal that a local authority can spend €600k of our money in rent to a vulture fund over 25 years, with absolutely nothing to show for it in the end? Make it so that they are only allowed to spend up to X amount on rent, if there is nothing to show for it. I don't understand why they don't build their own houses with that money.

3. Tax vacant properties- this has been banged on about for years and years now. They do it in Copenhagen, now do it here.

4. Build 8-10 storey apartment blocks in and around the city centre, and make it cost €1k to lodge an objection. We do not have the range of housing that we need- I, as a single person, do not need a 3 bedroom semi-d, yet one of those in a bad area is the type of thing I can afford, rather than an apartment near work.

Basically just do everything Rory Hearne talks about in this article: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/ireland-investment-housing-5428746-May2021/

Paul Gallagher AG and landlord will opine how unlikely to be constitutional any effective measures would be. I would put money on it that the advice he is due to give on restricting funds' ownership of housing will lean in favour of the side which argues against these measures.

https://www.irishlegal.com/article/attorney-general-did-not-submit-written-statement-on-ownership-of-rental-properties

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1