Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

tuisginideach wrote: »

Can't find what MVC actually refers to but if you are just referring to the general portal/process : Text Monday afternoon. AZ vaccine Wed

Mass Vaccination Centres

Ballynally wrote: »

I am 57. I was going to wait with registration hoping i would get the JJ vaccine sometime at the end of June and be done with it, when stocks of AZ were depleted because of India stopping exporting and the usual disappointing delivery numbers.
It seems to me they really intend to keep the JJ for every kind of hard to reach group including the hesitancy people. As there is simply not enough JJ for even those there will be none for the over 50s left. Then, if AZ again fail to be delivered in large numbers i hope Pfizer and Moderna will make up for it. Unless every obese and chronically ill person gets done first i w still be waiting at the end of july, possibly august f the first jab.
Tell me where i am going wrong w this please..

There are only 40,000 people in that hard to reach cohort and about 600K doses of J&J are expected. For some of the over 50s doses could arrive too late and may end up as a "nothing else available" jab for under 50s. As for AZ supplies they finally seem to be getting their act together and Pfizer have repeatedly shown they will do as promised. It's today for the 57 year olds BTW so go and register, the appointment should be in 2-3 weeks.

revelman wrote: »

I posted some calculations a few days ago (but can’t find it now) suggesting that we might expect 400,000 AZ vaccines in May. I based this on what the Germans are expecting. 400k would make serious inroads into over 50s.

https://www.boards.ie/mobile/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117060636&postcount=5780

revelman wrote: »

Here are German predictions for delivery of vaccines in May and June (as of Friday).

This document outlines the number of vaccines to go to GP offices: https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Dateien/3_Downloads/C/Coronavirus/Impfstoff/Lieferprognose_Praxen-Betriebsaerzte_2._Quartal.pdf

The second document outlines the number of vaccines going to MVCs: https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Dateien/3_Downloads/C/Coronavirus/Impfstoff/Lieferungen_Bu-Laender_Impfzentren_2._Quartal.pdf

I’m most interested in AZ delivery, as Pfizer looks relatively stable and we will need AZ for over 50s here, especially if J&J doesn’t pull through. So far, the Germans are expecting 3.15 million AZ vaccines in May. Adjusting for population, this would mean 189,975 AZ vaccines for us here in Ireland in May. I am assuming that this is not everything since only the first two weeks of May seem to have AZ deliveries. If AZ deliver in weeks 3 and 4 of May in the same way, we could have 380,000 AZ vaccines arriving in May.

Caveat. These are back-of-the-envelope calculations mixed with speculation so don’t quote me on this!

Quoted for the LOLs

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1390079576907280384

Looking for a big Tuesday number this morning!

TheDoctor wrote: »

Looking for a big Tuesday number this morning!

Wednesday number for Germany just came in, like last Wed they managed 1.1 million jabs made up of about 900k first doses, the other 200k second jabs.

Tuesday was 820k made up of roughly 670k first jab and 150k second jabs
https://impfdashboard.de/

It was asked here recently how Germany was managing to have higher numbers than Ireland for doses administered but I can only think that its because they are using the doses rather than storing them.

On some chart I thought I saw about 25% of irelands stock unused which suggests (if I saw that right) that Ireland is storing Astra and pfizer for second doses unnecessarily. Germany stopped doing that a number of weeks ago so every Astra and Pfizer dose available is thrown out to vaccine centres and GPs as soon as possible rather than hoarded with an abundance of caution

munchkin_utd wrote: »

Wednesday number for Germany just came in, like last Wed they managed 1.1 million jabs made up of about 900k first doses, the other 200k second jabs.

Tuesday was 820k made up of roughly 670k first jab and 150k second jabs
https://impfdashboard.de/

It was asked here recently how Germany was managing to have higher numbers than Ireland for doses administered but I can only think that its because they are using the doses rather than storing them.

On some chart I thought I saw about 25% of irelands stock unused which suggests (if I saw that right) that Ireland is storing Astra and pfizer for second doses unnecessarily. Germany stopped doing that a number of weeks ago so every Astra and Pfizer dose available is thrown out to vaccine centres and GPs as soon as possible rather than hoarded with an abundance of caution

50% of Moderna is held back at the request of the company, AZ is being used now with the 60-69 group and will be used with the over 50s in a few weeks time. There are a lot of second doses to do with Pfizer so it's not being held back. No idea how Germany has been affected by delays but we've altered our plan 23 times already and we still don't trust what AZ say so yeah caution is the word.

I think that 80% target is a big stretch at this stage. The age restrictions on AZ and J&J have slowed the process considerably over the past couple of weeks. The easiest way to catch up would have been to extend the gap between doses for the other two to 6 weeks but we’ve opted to stick to 4 instead.

In the long run it’s not such a big deal I think. We’ll definitely be above 80% in July barring a disaster and I expect everyone of school going age and above will be offered a first dose by September.

munchkin_utd wrote: »

On some chart I thought I saw about 25% of irelands stock unused which suggests (if I saw that right) that Ireland is storing Astra and pfizer for second doses unnecessarily.

Nah, not really.

On any given Sunday we have used about 80% of everything that has been delivered up to that Sunday. Last week for example, we had administered 1.6m doses and received 2.1m. However 0.4m doses had only arrived last week. So only 100k doses were actually being "held back".

The reality is that 95% of what arrives in the country is administered within ten days.

Lumen yesterday quite rightly pointed out that we could be even faster. There's no reason why it should take more than a couple of hours for a batch to arrive in the central depot before being redistributed and in someone's arm 24 hours later.

So nothing is being held back, and hopefully we'll see the turnaround time reduced in the coming weeks.

If I had to guess why there's this delay, I would suspect that caution over the reliability of deliveries. That is, after being continually burned, they want to be sure the stock is physically in the country before confirming vaccination appointments. That having to cancel appointments because the stock didn't arrive looks way worse.

JPup wrote: »

I think that 80% target is a big stretch at this stage. The age restrictions on AZ and J&J have slowed the process considerably over the past couple of weeks. The easiest way to catch up would have been to extend the gap between doses for the other two to 6 weeks but we’ve opted to stick to 4 instead.

In the long run it’s not such a big deal I think. We’ll definitely be above 80% in July barring a disaster and I expect everyone of school going age and above will be offered a first dose by September.

It's really 80% offered a vaccine by the end of June with presumably a date. Some have already rejected an offer of a vaccine and more will, so that will be included.

josip wrote: »

Brilliant, made my morning

Yes, that seems a contradiction but let me clarify. This group i mentioned are people hesitant on taking either a particular vaccine or generally hesitant because of perceived dangers of taking any vaccine.
That is not really what i am at. I am waiting with registration because to me the JJ seems both the fastest and the safest based on current data. One could argue back and forth about the data but i no longer see the point of that looking at the constant online battle raging and i don't want to enter the shark infested pool.
Suffice to say that i believe most of the current vaccines are safe albeit w mostly short time side effects w particular numbers f particular vaccines.
I have my preference f JJ and willing to wait a short while w registration to see how the numbers stack up in terms of delivery and vaccine rollout strategy by the state and other actors. I keep doing all the things to keep safe. Things are looking good..

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0506/1214053-covid-19-ireland/

...
Other vulnerable and hard to reach groups likely to receive the Johnson & Johnson vaccine include the Roma community, Travellers, people living in direct provision, people with addictions, and people in prison
...

What's the difficulty in keeping track of people in prison?
I'd have thought they are the easiest group of all to track down for a 2nd dose.
It's not like they're going to go somewhere or not bother showing up.

Ballynally wrote: »

I have my preference f JJ and willing to wait a short while w registration to see how the numbers stack up in terms of delivery and vaccine rollout strategy by the state and other actors. I keep doing all the things to keep safe. Things are looking good..

There's no guarantee you will get a choice in July/August. I expect if we have unused AZ and J&J vaccines we will be donating them and using only the mRNA, not offering a menu to people. You'll end up costing yourself 8 weeks of no protection for nothing.

Ironically, I hear talk (was it in the UK?) that people who have received mRNA may get an Astra Zeneca booster if a third jab for variants is required, and vice-versa.

Lucas Hood wrote: »

33,996 done. Not too bad.

Not great though. I appreciate why numbers early in the week are low, but Monday was low like a Sunday.

I know underneath it you still have human beings who are entitled to break and bank holidays, but there's no reason this can't be accounted for so that we don't see bank holidays (and eventually weekends) being pinch points.

josip wrote: »

What's the difficulty in keeping track of people in prison?
I'd have thought they are the easiest group of all to track down for a 2nd dose.
It's not like they're going to go somewhere or not bother showing up.

Between people on release, people being transferred, etc, I'd imagine you'd have quite a few prisoners who could be "missed" in the waiting period and can't be returned to their original cell for the second dose.

You also have to remember that you're sending vaccinators into the prisons. So they have to go in twice if there are two doses.

I have no issue with using J&J for these circumstances tbh.