Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

Sharpyshoot · 05-05-2021 10:33AM

dalyboy wrote: »

Pup payments ? What are they ?
Awaiting your experiential knowledge.....

Purple prose.

bloopy · 05-05-2021 10:34AM

charlie14 wrote: »

What relevance would that have?
Incident rates are based on the number per 100K of population.

bloopy wrote: »

Because depending on the size of the population, a relatively small number might seem rather large when looked at per 100000 people.
Is the area a village, a town, a parish?

I found the figure in the end in case you were interested.
For the area referenced, 93 cases over two weeks is what gets your 675 per 100000 population.
One of those numbers are scary, the other is not so scary.
But I think you already new the number and opted to go with the fearmonger one. Is that why you were so reluctant to tell me?

Sobit1964 · 05-05-2021 10:37AM

Boggles wrote: »

If you believe the lizard people are forcing us to wear masks because it stifles emotion and controls us or whatever scutter is peddled by the anti mask, anti vax, anti highspeed internet access brigade you need to purge your social media.

When called out on this - you claimed that you were referring to the author of the article:

Boggles wrote: »

Anyway it seems to apply to the author of the nonsense who claims wearing a mask is political. I'm guessing he is American.

Im not sure the following makes the author an antivaxer

In the last 12 months we have seen the pharmaceutical industry and its underlying capacity for scientific accomplishment at its best. The development of mRNA vaccines represents a breakthrough of real consequence......This ought to give pause to the political reflex to demonise pharmaceutical companies that is prevalent on both the Left and the Right.

This one is particularly relevant:

epistemic threats to institutional authority are resolved into moral conflicts between good people and bad people.

This is obvious in Ireland, its obvious with regard to this thread, and obvious where posters claim people are 'selfish', 'interested only in Pints', and then the cherry on top 'its really simple/its remedial/its not rocket science' to cement [in their minds only] the point.

As UK epidemiologist Neil Ferguson said to the Times last December: “It’s a communist one-party state [China], we said. We couldn’t get away with [lockdowns] in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realised we could.” He added that “These days, lockdown feels inevitable.”

This is the very reason why this thread keeps moving along at pace. People who don't buy into the GoodPerson[tm] worldview see the range and duration of restrictions to be fundamentally wrong, and while opinions vary - talking about them is better than a blanket follow the 'science/dear leader' or you are a BadPerson[tm]

That said the restrictions are easing, vaccines look to be incredibly effective, and we look to be on our way out of this. The debate and investigation of how this period of our lives was handled is far from over. As much as some might like to suggest, incorrectly, that lockdown was longer due to bad behaviour - I counter that it was longer due to bad leadership and a spineless groupthink amongst the population enthralled by the medias nightly numbers - bad science, not good science.

hynesie08 · 05-05-2021 10:40AM

dalyboy wrote: »

Pup payments ? What are they ?
Awaiting your experiential knowledge.....

You withdraw them from the atm machine with your pin number.

Boggles · 05-05-2021 10:42AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

That said the restrictions are easing, vaccines look to be incredibly effective, and we look to be on our way out of this. The debate and investigation of how this period of our lives was handled is far from over. As much as some might like to suggest, incorrectly, that lockdown was longer due to bad behaviour - I counter that it was longer due to bad leadership and a spineless groupthink amongst the population enthralled by the medias nightly numbers - bad science, not good science.

Very few governance got the handling of pandemic spot on, ours is no different.

If you set an unrealistic bar or immerse yourself in grifters online who have all the easy solutions, you will only disappoint yourself.

Wear a mask, be sensible, take the vaccine when offered and hopefully by next Spring the data will be their to show the very worst is behind us.

FintanMcluskey · 05-05-2021 11:21AM

Boggles wrote: »

Very few governance got the handling of pandemic spot on, ours is no different.

If you set an unrealistic bar or immerse yourself in grifters online who have all the easy solutions, you will only disappoint yourself.

Wear a mask, be sensible, take the vaccine when offered and hopefully by next Spring the data will be their to show the very worst is behind us.

If you insist on an myopic approach to health and wellbeing then yes, Covid will be behind us

We will still have to face the consequences of delayed cancer screening and treatment and delayed diagnosis and treatment of many other health issues, postponed mental health treatment and diagnosis of autism etc

Likely much more dangerous than covid could ever be

bear1 · 05-05-2021 11:41AM

Boggles wrote: »

You mean like in the shower and going to bed?

No.

And outside? Or will your quick wit also be a method of responding?

Fandymo · 05-05-2021 11:52AM

Boggles wrote: »

Do you distrust all motor cyclists?

Welders?

Surgeons?

Skiers?

Why aren't motorcyclists etc allowed wear helmets into banks, post offices, building societies and most other businesses with cash on the premises??

PCeeeee · 05-05-2021 12:24PM

paw patrol wrote: »

yeah cos thats what I meant.:rolleyes:

I'll bet you met the surgeon beforehand maskless .
which makes a mockery of your point.

Are you thick or just deliberately obtuse ?

I did meet him before. The rest of the team no as it happens but in fairness this is not a thing I wish to argue about, if you believe that the fact that I met the sugeon unmasked previously makes a mockery of my point then so be it.

That said I could have tried a couple of different examples but I picked the surgeon because he was wearing a mask for my safety, I thought that a reasonable parallel.

As for the thick or deliberately obtuse bit, I assume that's rhetorical. Or am I being obtuse?

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 12:34PM

paw patrol wrote: »

yeah cos thats what I meant.:rolleyes:

I'll bet you met the surgeon beforehand maskless .
which makes a mockery of your point.

Are you thick or just deliberately obtuse ?

I can see the wisdom now in not trusting people who wear masks.

Whose to say that the lad you met beforehand didn`t take the day off and let his friend the plumber do the operation hidden behind a mask.:rolleyes:

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 12:50PM

Fandymo wrote: »

Why aren't motorcyclists etc allowed wear helmets into banks, post offices, building societies and most other businesses with cash on the premises??

Face masks during a pandemic are for your protection and the protection of others.
Motorcyclists wear helmets for their own protection while riding their bikes. They do not ride their bikes into banks, post offices etc.

_Kaiser_ · 05-05-2021 01:02PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Face masks during a pandemic are for your protection and the protection of others.
Motorcyclists wear helmets for their own protection while riding their bikes. They do not ride their bikes into banks, post offices etc.

The pandemic, or at least any significant level of risk in this country, is over - and has been for months (or arguably since the middle of last year)

That 0.1-0.3% of people who ARE at potential risk (and even then serious illness or death is far from certain) have now almost all been vaccinated, and the actual numbers of ICU cases and serious hospitalisations have fallen dramatically as the weather has gotten warmer as well, owing to the seasonal nature of the virus (as happened last summer too, and without masks or vaccines).

The only risk now is making an already bad situation regarding employment, business, mental health, community welfare, and the economy much worse while we pretend there's still a "lethal killer" out there.

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 01:12PM

bloopy wrote: »

Because depending on the size of the population, a relatively small number might seem rather large when looked at per 100000 people.
Is the area a village, a town, a parish?

The incident rate for those two areas in Donegal is calculated on the same basis as every other in the country. On the electoral area and expressed as the number if the population of the area was 100K.

If you were to do what you appear to be suggesting, then the incident rate for a large populated area would have little or now meaning or relevance.
It would be the overall average and would mask areas with high incident rates.

Stormyteacup · 05-05-2021 01:35PM

charlie14 wrote: »

The incident rate for those two areas in Donegal is calculated on the same basis as every other in the country. On the electoral area and expressed as the number if the population of the area was 100K.

If you were to do what you appear to be suggesting, then the incident rate for a large populated area would have little or now meaning or relevance.
It would be the overall average and would mask areas with high incident rates.

Quite sure poster wasn’t advocating changing the reporting method.

Merely pointing out that the incidence rate needs more subtle interpretation. It puts a different slant on things if a total of 93 cases over two weeks was what led to such a high incidence rate.

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 01:39PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The pandemic, or at least any significant level of risk in this country, is over - and has been for months (or arguably since the middle of last year)

That 0.1-0.3% of people who ARE at potential risk (and even then serious illness or death is far from certain) have now almost all been vaccinated, and the actual numbers of ICU cases and serious hospitalisations have fallen dramatically as the weather has gotten warmer as well, owing to the seasonal nature of the virus (as happened last summer too, and without masks or vaccines).

The only risk now is making an already bad situation regarding employment, business, mental health, community welfare, and the economy much worse while we pretend there's still a "lethal killer" out there.

The seasonal behaviour of this virus is not what will prevent us going in and out of lockdown. It`s the vaccines that are showing they are our best hope of doing that. For that to be effective then we need to have reached a certain level of vaccinations before staged opening.

The only known level that we have that is looking effective is that of the U.K.
Doing so at that level, and keeping numbers down until then will also give us wriggle room as we reopen. What we do not want or need is doing so like some countries at the wrong level with high numbers and have to apply an "emergency brake" going back into lockdown.

Jumping the gun on vaccination levels is not going to do much for the economy, peoples confidence, or that often touted mention of their mental health if we have to head back into lockdown.

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 02:00PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Quite sure poster wasn’t advocating changing the reporting method.

Merely pointing out that the incidence rate needs more subtle interpretation. It puts a different slant on things if a total of 93 cases over two weeks was what led to such a high incidence rate.

There is nothing subtle about the incidence rate of those two areas. They are 5 times greater than the national average.
It`s not as if they are isolated pockets. They are two electoral areas that border each other in the geographical centre of the county, with one containing by far the largest town in the county.

FintanMcluskey · 05-05-2021 02:03PM

charlie14 wrote: »

The seasonal behaviour of this virus is not what will prevent us going in and out of lockdown. It`s the vaccines that are showing they are our best hope of doing that. For that to be effective then we need to have reached a certain level of vaccinations before staged opening.

The only known level that we have that is looking effective is that of the U.K.
Doing so at that level, and keeping numbers down until then will also give us wriggle room as we reopen. What we do not want or need is doing so like some countries at the wrong level with high numbers and have to apply an "emergency brake" going back into lockdown.

Jumping the gun on vaccination levels is not going to do much for the economy, peoples confidence, or that often touted mention of their mental health if we have to head back into lockdown.

The bold part is critical

We must stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown

KrustyUCC · 05-05-2021 02:06PM

This is the new normal according to the gospel of Leo

Life in Ireland will be 'relatively normal' by August, predicts Leo Varadkar

By August, life in Ireland will be “relatively normal” again, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

While he said most things will be back to normal by then, some restrictions will still remain longer term in relation to mass gatherings and international travel.

"Life in Israel is pretty much back to normal – they're welcoming tourists again and they're having, not very large gatherings, but they are having mass gatherings.

Kids going back to school as normal, and September, college happening on campus and September, October, all those things, and then a pretty normal Christmas in terms of seeing our friends and relations."

But Mr Varadkar caveated his comments by saying nobody can promise that timeline, adding this is the new virus, which is only around a year or so, and the vaccines aren't even around a year, and we just can't know for sure.

“It's possible that the efficacy of the vaccines could wear off after a certain point of time. We don't know what might happen in terms of variants that may be vaccine-resistant. We don't know what will happen when the winter comes,” he said.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281917.html

Israel’s regulations now allow gatherings at sports and cultural events of up to 500 people indoors and 750 people outdoors. Gatherings of up to 1,000 people indoors and 1,500 outdoors can be held at stadiums with over 10,000 seats.

Can't see our gombeens getting anywhere near those numbers

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 02:09PM

bloopy wrote: »

I found the figure in the end in case you were interested.
For the area referenced, 93 cases over two weeks is what gets your 675 per 100000 population.
One of those numbers are scary, the other is not so scary.
But I think you already new the number and opted to go with the fearmonger one. Is that why you were so reluctant to tell me?

Not really. I was well aware of the numbers. Just wondered how long it would take you to reveal your attempted conjuring trick with statistics.
I honestly didn`t believe you would go down the Donald Trump road of testing less would reduce the number, but gotta admit that part I got wrong.

Stormyteacup · 05-05-2021 02:09PM

charlie14 wrote: »

There is nothing subtle about the incidence rate of those two areas. They are 5 times greater than the national average.
It`s not as if they are isolated pockets. They are two electoral areas that border each other in the geographical centre of the county, with one containing by far the largest town in the county.

Really? A few moderate outbreaks will rocket incidence rate for lower density regions. And how do you know they are not isolated pockets?

5 times greater that the national average applies if one LEA has 20 cases and the national average is 4. So yes it does merit a more subtle analysis.

lee_baby_simms · 05-05-2021 02:11PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The bold part is critical

We must stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown

We don’t like to use the word lockdown anymore.

It’ll be more of a ‘circuit breaker’ to avoid ‘extended restrictions’.

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 02:11PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The bold part is critical

We must stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown

Not what I said Fintan, but you could send that to the German authorities. Probably more apt for them.

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 02:15PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Really? A few moderate outbreaks will rocket incidence rate for lower density regions. And how do you know they are not isolated pockets?

5 times greater that the national average applies if one LEA has 20 cases and the national average is 4. So yes it does merit a more subtle analysis.

1. I`m from the county and I have relation there working in health care in the area.
2. You are either just waffling or even now you have no idea how this virus spreads.

05-05-2021 02:18PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The pandemic, or at least any significant level of risk in this country, is over - and has been for months (or arguably since the middle of last year)

That 0.1-0.3% of people who ARE at potential risk (and even then serious illness or death is far from certain) have now almost all been vaccinated, and the actual numbers of ICU cases and serious hospitalisations have fallen dramatically as the weather has gotten warmer as well, owing to the seasonal nature of the virus (as happened last summer too, and without masks or vaccines).

The only risk now is making an already bad situation regarding employment, business, mental health, community welfare, and the economy much worse while we pretend there's still a "lethal killer" out there.

Where is that nonsense pulled from?

Silentcorner · 05-05-2021 02:20PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

This is the new normal according to the gospel of Leo

But Mr Varadkar caveated his comments by saying nobody can promise that timeline, adding this is the new virus, which is only around a year or so, and the vaccines aren't even around a year, and we just can't know for sure.

“It's possible that the efficacy of the vaccines could wear off after a certain point of time. We don't know what might happen in terms of variants that may be vaccine-resistant. We don't know what will happen when the winter comes,” he said.

We are going back into lock down next winter would be my take on that....

I wonder will we have to pretend that outdoor transmission is a danger, or that asymptomatic people transmit the virus or that masks are any good or will we just follow the science and admit there will be a danger during the seasonal surge outside of which restrictions let alone lock downs are a waste of time and money?

Stormyteacup · 05-05-2021 02:21PM

charlie14 wrote: »

1. I`m from the county and I have relation there working in health care in the area.
2. You are either just waffling or even now you have no idea how this virus spreads.

1. Perhaps you could address the points in my post. Anecdotal evidence not good enough.

2. You made an issue of ‘5 times the national average’, without qualification of circulation levels of virus in population.

05-05-2021 02:23PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

This is the new normal according to the gospel of Leo

Life in Ireland will be 'relatively normal' by August, predicts Leo Varadkar

By August, life in Ireland will be “relatively normal” again, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

While he said most things will be back to normal by then, some restrictions will still remain longer term in relation to mass gatherings and international travel.

"Life in Israel is pretty much back to normal – they're welcoming tourists again and they're having, not very large gatherings, but they are having mass gatherings.

Kids going back to school as normal, and September, college happening on campus and September, October, all those things, and then a pretty normal Christmas in terms of seeing our friends and relations."

But Mr Varadkar caveated his comments by saying nobody can promise that timeline, adding this is the new virus, which is only around a year or so, and the vaccines aren't even around a year, and we just can't know for sure.

“It's possible that the efficacy of the vaccines could wear off after a certain point of time. We don't know what might happen in terms of variants that may be vaccine-resistant. We don't know what will happen when the winter comes,” he said.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281917.html

Israel’s regulations now allow gatherings at sports and cultural events of up to 500 people indoors and 750 people outdoors. Gatherings of up to 1,000 people indoors and 1,500 outdoors can be held at stadiums with over 10,000 seats.

Can't see our gombeens getting anywhere near those numbers

Its amazing the way a positive outlook, with the small caveat that nothing is certain yet, is spun on this thread to "we are locking down next winter".

Its like lives have now become defined by complaining about lockdown

charlie14 · 05-05-2021 02:30PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

1. Perhaps you could address the points in my post. Anecdotal evidence not good enough.

2. You made an issue of ‘5 times the national average’, without qualification of circulation levels of virus in population.

1. I have already told you I have friends working in health care, and not only relatives friends as well, in the particular area. What do you want me to do. Go there and count cases and mark them individually on a map for you ?

2. Incident rates are shown on the basis of electoral areas nationwide. That is the standard and accepted qualification on the level of the virus.

FintanMcluskey · 05-05-2021 02:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its amazing the way a positive outlook, with the small caveat that nothing is certain yet, is spun on this thread to "we are locking down next winter".

Its like lives have now become defined by complaining about lockdown

Not all lives have become divined by complaining about lockdown.

Some are complaining(myself included), other’s are enjoying it and are relatively unaffected.

Both sides are entitled to their opinion

KrustyUCC · 05-05-2021 02:31PM

Why the need to caveat for things he doesn't know?

It's not a small caveat

It's possible that the efficacy of the vaccines will not wear off after a certain point of time. We don't know what might happen in terms of variants that may never be vaccine-resistant. We don't know what will happen when the winter comes until winter comes

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings