Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings

RayCon · 28-04-2021 07:20AM

JRant wrote: »

Here's the reason https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1

Nolan and his motley crew of modelling mathematical marvels put this abomination together and actually presented it to government. And even more incredibly, the government didn't take one look at it and throw it straight into the bin.

They predict in the region of 250,000 to 700,000 by late July, despite having 80% of the adult population vaccinated. They also say that the if containment easing (that's the fancy word for lockdown) is delayed for 8 weeks the results are markedly different. Those 8 weeks just happens to get us to the end of May. So, don't expect too much on Thursday as a lot of the restrictions will be back loaded towards the end of the month.

Oh, and do laugh at the absolute shambles of a report and the way the graphs are presented. It's almost like this wasn't put together by the combined might of Irish universities mathematics prodigies.

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

Elessar · 28-04-2021 07:32AM

Mr Martin told his colleagues that the approach will be one of caution as a potential spike in the autumn could have significant consequences.

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

JRant · 28-04-2021 07:34AM

MOR316 wrote: »

Philip Nolan...

He has no prior experience, qualifications or training in pandemic or epidemiology modelling...
How is he in the position he's in? Why is he in the position he's in?

Very true, however he is the head of the IEMA, which was get another new group set up in March of last year.

JRant · 28-04-2021 07:40AM

RayCon wrote: »

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

If a report like that came across my desk in work I'd bin it. It's basically a load of assumptions with nothing in it to back up any of the claims, almost like it was put together to fit a narrative.

FintanMcluskey · 28-04-2021 07:52AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

Yet MM want’s to encourage people to spend savings in the ROI

How??

PintOfView · 28-04-2021 08:10AM

JRant wrote: »

If a report like that came across my desk in work I'd bin it. It's basically a load of assumptions with nothing in it to back up any of the claims, almost like it was put together to fit a narrative.

You'd bin it?

I was expecting it to be rubbish from what was being said about it.
It's simply the historical numbers, plus projections based on clear assumptions
However it does take more than 30 seconds to read and absorb the information!!

If you had a position of responsibility, and you binned that report,
and you didn't take the information in it into account in your decision making
then sorry, but I would recommend that you be removed from your job!!

28-04-2021 08:13AM

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

the kelt · 28-04-2021 08:16AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

I hope all those people in their southern reg cars and accents will all be ok and not set upon by the senseless rioting going on all over the north according to this thread a few weeks ago

ypres5 · 28-04-2021 08:17AM

gozunda wrote: »

Whats the expression? - "different animal same stable?. I'd say it's more bs attacking those who you don't agree with because apparently they'd "love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it"...

But as you say "more baseless rambling" ..

If you don't mind me saying that post of mine about covid marshalls enjoying their petty authority seems to have really stuck in your craw for some reason

Elessar · 28-04-2021 08:20AM

Lefty2Guns wrote: »

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

Absolutely. Now that they are commonplace the terrifying reality is that they are like dislocating a shoulder - hard to do it the first time but can happen very easily again after that. I sure hope to god I'm wrong but absolutely no one in government has the guts to say "No, this is too much".

finalfurlong · 28-04-2021 08:23AM

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

Yes it really is beyond a joke.The serious side is that there is no even perfunctory questioning of this moving of goalposts and raft of contradictions by Gov and Nphet.Today and tomorrow will be spun away with no questioning like
Given that we were told non stop about saving health system do todays figures of 148(out of 12000 beds) and 46 in Icu in a country of 5000000 people have relevance?
Do todays average figure of last 2 weeks of 400 cases with an accompanying DECREASE in hospitalisations and ICU tell us something?
Could the billions spent on supports currently be reduced by opening safely businesses which generate revenue by VAT PAYE etc?
Could todays meeting see Nphet asked why they consider current situation fragile,given that 1.5 million people have got vaccine,all metrics have come down since end of March when it was also "fragile"

Finally could there be a modicum of leadership and drive By Gov to stop simpering about people not "behaving"-it is an insult that the efforts of people to bring the numbers down to the above is being thrown back in their faces by the insult to intelligence patronising guff we are going to be fed yet again today and tomorrow

JRant · 28-04-2021 08:24AM

PintOfView wrote: »

You'd bin it?

I was expecting it to be rubbish from what was being said about it.
It's simply the historical numbers, plus projections based on clear assumptions
However it does take more than 30 seconds to read and absorb the information!!

If you had a position of responsibility, and you binned that report,
and you didn't take the information in it into account in your decision making
then sorry, but I would recommend that you be removed from your job!!

Look at the graphs alone. That's enough to send it straight back to whatever 1st year student put it together.

Also, assuming an R number of 2 in July is not just a "worst case scenario" it's outright scaremongering. Israel has a R way below 1 with most of the country back open and 130 doses per 100 people, somewhere we will be in June/July so what is the basis of using such high R numbers.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

gozunda · 28-04-2021 08:25AM

RayCon wrote: »

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

If you'd check you might see it's not a 'presentation"

Odd the dismissal and outrage of what is in effect a briefing document looking at estimates modelling and not "predictions" as detailed by some.

It does mention the potential for new wave of infection from increased social contact following a roll back of restrictions etc. But then shows how vaccination progressively suppresses infections and cases and the significant effect vaccination has on hospitalisation.

Its not really surprising that restrictions will help keep the lid on the rate of infection as vaccinations are rolled out.

I would love to see some of the alternate modelling and graphs some of the experts here would come up with tbf :pac:

Marty Bird · 28-04-2021 08:31AM

Lefty2Guns wrote: »

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

Yep 100% agree I did think they would fly the kites maybe early August but they’re flying them a lot earlier.

gozunda · 28-04-2021 08:32AM

ypres5 wrote: »

If you don't mind me saying that post of mine about covid marshalls enjoying their petty authority seems to have really stuck in your craw for some reason

Ah let me see - you're saying anyone replying to your comment about "uniforms" and "petty authoritiy" means that there the ones with an issue on that ?

Rflol

Thanks for the laugh this morning

TomSweeney · 28-04-2021 08:34AM

gozunda wrote: »

Hmmm I reckon the boot would be firmly on the other foot given half a chance. "Uniform and self importance" etc

One poster here reckoned that those following restrictions were the "weak-minded" who need others to tell them what to think and what to do...

Tbh that sounds like a soundbite straight out of Mein Kampf...

Yeah welcome to the ignore list ...

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facehugger99 · 28-04-2021 08:35AM

Elessar wrote: »

Absolutely. Now that they are commonplace the terrifying reality is that they are like dislocating a shoulder - hard to do it the first time but can happen very easily again after that. I sure hope to god I'm wrong but absolutely no one in government has the guts to say "No, this is too much".

If the Government are advised by NPHET that shutting down the country next winter will save people dying from respiratory illnesses, then they will shut down the country.

This is the current metric that is being applied.

It doesn't matter that the effects of these lockdowns are doing way more damage then good - the only prism through which anything is to be assessed and judged is by covid cases apparently.

The only way this strategy changes is either the people of this country wake up and realise what is being done to their lives and their futures by this nonsense - and this doesn't look close to happening yet or;

The Government are cut off from the line of cheap credit that they are currently burning their way through with abandon. The amount of debt they have added to us and our kids is actually criminal in my view. They are ducking any decisions or accountability by throwing tens of billions of our money around.

TomSweeney · 28-04-2021 08:37AM

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

Wouldn't surprise me, even though flu is literally more dangerous to kids than covid is.

Boggles · 28-04-2021 08:40AM

JRant wrote: »

.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

You didn't even read it so.

Vaccination will
•
significantly and quickly reduce risk over a short period of time from May 2021 to August 2021
•
radically reduce mortality when those over 70 are fully protected
•
have a smaller effect on hospitalisation and critical care until the wider adult population is protected

It's why you send things up to "leadership" and the likes of Nolan is "leadership".

Sharpyshoot · 28-04-2021 08:42AM

It’s NIAC now that has the trump card over the government and nphet.

JRant · 28-04-2021 08:45AM

Boggles wrote: »

You didn't even read it so.

It's why you send things up to "leadership" and the likes of Nolan is "leadership".

He's an a career academic and wouldn't know what leadership was if it bit him on the arse.

It's clear you and others haven't read the report. They use a R number of 2 even with vaccinations. It's right there in the report under the 3 scenarios they highlight. They then go on to say that suppression is required for a further 8 weeks, up to end of May or we would have over 700,000 cases. It's ludicrous stuff.

PintOfView · 28-04-2021 08:47AM

JRant wrote: »

Look at the graphs alone. That's enough to send it straight back to whatever 1st year student put it together.

Also, assuming an R number of 2 in July is not just a "worst case scenario" it's outright scaremongering. Israel has a R way below 1 with most of the country back open and 130 doses per 100 people, somewhere we will be in June/July so what is the basis of using such high R numbers.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

I see nothing wrong with the graphs, they clearly communicate the information!

The report is not assuming an R rate of 2 in July,
it's showing what the models suggest would happen with different R rates (1.3, 1.5, and 2.0)
It's also showing predictions with vaccination, and without vaccination.

You say that Israel has an R way below 1, with a vaccinations where we will be in July.
But isn't that what the graphs are showing?
They're showing a possible 4th wave, peaking end of June, with the virus then falling dramatically by October.

Boggles · 28-04-2021 08:50AM

JRant wrote: »

He's an a career academic and wouldn't know what leadership was if it bit him on the arse.

It's clear you and others haven't read the report. They use a R number of 2 even with vaccinations. It's right there in the report under the 3 scenarios they highlight. They then go on to say that suppression is required for a further 8 weeks, up to end of May or we would have over 700,000 cases. It's ludicrous stuff.

It's not a report it's a briefing document, there is a difference. You of all people should know that if you review reports every day.

I suggest though you go back again and review this briefing document because as I just showed, you haven't clearly.

If there is parts you don't understand, ask.

28-04-2021 08:50AM

Boggles wrote: »

You didn't even read it so.

It's why you send things up to "leadership" and the likes of Nolan is "leadership".

"Vaccination will
•
significantly and quickly reduce risk over a short period of time from May 2021 to August 2021
•
radically reduce mortality when those over 70 are fully protected
•
have a smaller effect on hospitalisation and critical care until the wider adult population is protected"

Nolan couldn't lead a line of ducklings to the pond. My mother is among the last of over 70s in country to be vaccinated on Friday. Hospitalisations/critical care units already significantly eased. We haven't even left April and NPHET are casually discussing August as a valid target for rolling back of restrictions. What the hell are our government dawdling for. Open the country now and stop taking our time for granted.

gozunda · 28-04-2021 08:52AM

MOR316 wrote: »

Philip Nolan...
He has no prior experience, qualifications or training in pandemic or epidemiology modelling...
How is he in the position he's in? Why is he in the position he's in?

Maybe we should look at that. Currently he is the Chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group

The Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) is a modelling group of NPHET formed on 11 March 2020 to provide statistical support and advice to NPHET and the Chief Medical Officer. Staff at University College Dublin and other mathematical researchers in Ireland are involved in developing mathematical models for stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Philip Nolan is currently the president of Maynooth University. His primary qualifications are in medicine and related fields and include a (Hons) degree in Physiology and primary medical degrees of MB BCh BAO.

He earned a PhD based on medical research. To date he has a extensive track record in professesional research which includes publications in leading international journals and the creation and implementation of new research programmes at University level. There's more...

But you say he has absolutely no prior experience, qualifications or training to be a chairman for a group of expert researchers in modelling?

Okay ...

Stheno · 28-04-2021 08:54AM

Grief, the Govt can't even comment in synch

Dublin TDs John Lahart and Jim O’Callahgan raised the issue of large numbers of young people gathering to socialise and drink when no toilet facilities are accessible.

Mr Martin said such gatherings are potential super spreader events and are “of concern”.

But earlier in the day, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said people need to be "less puritanical" when it comes to criticising those who are enjoying themselves outdoors.

Mr Varadkar said socialising outdoors is “much, much safer” than indoors.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40276241.html

Boggles · 28-04-2021 08:55AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Nolan couldn't lead a line of ducklings to the pond.

I imagine he couldn't, primarily because he is not a fúcking duck.

Bizarre.

Sharpyshoot · 28-04-2021 08:57AM

Boggles wrote: »

I imagine he couldn't, primarily because he is not a fúcking duck.

Bizarre.

He does walk a bit wobbly with all the money he is coining in from his position.

Kivaro · 28-04-2021 08:57AM

More leaks this morning about the timing of inter-county travel in June. It is just bizarre. The EU Digital Green Pass is currently (now) being voted on. This means that vaccinated EU citizens will be allowed to travel within the EU without tests and quarantine upon arrival. So we could have a situation where we will be allowed to travel to any EU country and cross country borders, but not allowed travel within our own little island. Bizarre. We need the EU to knock some sense into this Irish government.

TomSweeney · 28-04-2021 08:58AM

Deleted User wrote: »

"Vaccination will
•
significantly and quickly reduce risk over a short period of time from May 2021 to August 2021
•
radically reduce mortality when those over 70 are fully protected
•
have a smaller effect on hospitalisation and critical care until the wider adult population is protected"

Nolan couldn't lead a line of ducklings to the pond. My mother is among the last of over 70s in country to be vaccinated on Friday. Hospitalisations/critical care units already significantly eased. We haven't even left April and NPHET are casually discussing August as a valid target for rolling back of restrictions. What the hell are our government dawdling for. Open the country now and stop taking our time for granted.

But but but INDIA !!! ???

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings