Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Godot. · 27-04-2021 05:34PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

OK so just read on RTE that if you have had Covid already and are under 50 that you will just get 1 dose of Pfizer or Moderna.

Is Ireland the only Country doing this ?

No idea about other countries and I'm no scientist but that decision kinda makes sense, no? Presumably people that have already had Covid will have some antibodies after recovering?

mohawk · 27-04-2021 05:36PM

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Think we should be preparing for some J&J related disappointment in the future. Fingers crossed production in Baltimore won't be stopped for long

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-50s-in-good-health-who-had-covid-19-to-be-considered-fully-vaccinated-after-one-jab-1.4548886?_ga=2.994546.272489767.1619539893-1649544013.1608592704

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/at-request-fda-emergent-s-troubled-baltimore-plant-suspends-j-j-vaccine-production

Speaking as someone who has spent most of their career in pharma. That is unbelievable how big a f up that was. I have worked in a plant that produced hundreds of products and there was never mix up in materials or contamination. Very poor controls in place there.

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 05:38PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The messenger needs to find more than a lone voice to back up the claim. We can look to the UK and Israel to see what'll happen after we're vaccinated.

It is not just one lone voice.
And we can indeed look to these countries to see how they react when the level of vocs increase among their populations to see how it works out and will continue for us .
Nobody saying it's a definite here but it is silly to dismiss it .

RavenBea17b · 27-04-2021 05:38PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

OK so just read on RTE that if you have had Covid already and are under 50 that you will just get 1 dose of Pfizer or Moderna.

Is Ireland the only Country doing this ?

Think France have been doing one dose of Pfizer for known and confirmed CV-19 for a good while now. Not heard anything about Moderna.

hmmm · 27-04-2021 05:40PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

More and more people of knowledge like Kingston Mills whom I gave as an example are saying that .

He might very well be right and I'm not qualified to judge, but that group of scientists seem to be worriers by nature. When you've the knowledge to know we're only one bad virus away from wiping out half of humanity it must weigh on you. The scientists and media in Ireland just seem to be extremely negative and downbeat, we're very different to the way most similar countries are reporting on this.

Florian Krammer on Twitter earlier (who seems to be on the more optimistic side) posted a pre-print of a study which showed that the "Indian variant" doesn't have much impact on vaccines - I remember you saying yesterday that Prof Mills was very worried about this variant. We've had Minks, and the UK, and the South African strains and so far nothing has been quite as bad as initial reports made it out to be.

I look for more balanced experts in general (and I'm a particular fan of Gottlieb), and they seem to be saying that while we will have some restrictions (e.g. wearing masks indoors) until 2022 we're largely back to normal in the second half of this year. That's not to say a new variant couldn't emerge which knocks everything back, but that's not the most likely thing to happen in the near future - and because it mutates at a slower speed than influenza we should be able to tweak vaccines in advance to deal with new mutations over the next few years.

vienne86 · 27-04-2021 05:42PM

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Maybe this is the wrong place to post this but I am so annoyed today and I just need to vent. So my 69 year old mother registered for her vaccine on the 15th of April, the day they opened registration. As of today she has not received an appointment, and according to the HSE helpline might not receive one until the 6th of May. However people in Wexford, that are younger than her, that we know, have since received both appointments and vaccines. People we know of in other counties have received the same. According to the helpline staff you will not be called by age but it is pretty much random allocation. So people who are 60 could receive an appointment tomorrow but she will still have to wait.

Then to top it off a GP practice in our local town have it advertised on their web page that if you are aged between 60 and 69 you can register to receive a vaccine this Friday. Our own GP are not vaccinating anyone under 70 as they are following HSE guidelines or so they say.

So to me the rollout is following no order at all. I was advised to call the HSE Have your say helpline but guess what they are very busy right now and there's noone to take the call...

Gutted for you and your mother. I know that myself and my friends were constantly checking the phone once we had registered - I was lucky that I got a text the day after I registered, but some were drumming their fingers when they had heard nothing a week after registering. It's really frustrating and I hope you get sorted soon.

is_that_so · 27-04-2021 05:43PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

It is not just one lone voice.
And we can indeed look to these countries to see how they react when the level of vocs increase among their populations to see how it works out and will continue for us .
Nobody saying it's a definite here but it is silly to dismiss it .

Not dismissing it, just looking for more voices although even he's guessing as well. Israel's programme has not been affected by VOCs. TBH it just sounds like people on the hunt for more "scariants".

Godot. · 27-04-2021 05:48PM

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Think we should be preparing for some J&J related disappointment in the future. Fingers crossed production in Baltimore won't be stopped for long

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-50s-in-good-health-who-had-covid-19-to-be-considered-fully-vaccinated-after-one-jab-1.4548886?_ga=2.994546.272489767.1619539893-1649544013.1608592704

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/at-request-fda-emergent-s-troubled-baltimore-plant-suspends-j-j-vaccine-production

More about Emergent. Jaysus, it sounds like they had some cowboys running things there.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/21/health/fda-emergent-johnson--johnson-vaccine-bn/index.html
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/emergent-ceo-sold-more-than-10-million-stock-before-j-j-doses-were-scrapped-report

I fear that the big J&J deliveries in late May/June won't happen now. J&J are the biggest pharma company in the world so you'd hope they'd be able to fix issues a lot quicker than AZ though.

Turtwig · 27-04-2021 05:53PM

hmmm wrote: »

it mutates at a slower speed than influenza we should be able to tweak vaccines in advance to deal with new mutations over the next few years.

I largely agree with everything you said up until this last point. Influenza while 'faster' to change things doesn't have near as many hosts as Coronavirus has. Coronavirus currently has a reservoir of millions of hosts for which it can play the changing game.

As for Mills et al being super cynical here himself, Luke O'Neill, Staines spend so much time doing media interviews that I've no idea how they can keep up to date on the studies and stuff they talk about it. Maybe I'm a slow reader but they seem to comment on what are very often lengthy detailed studies absurdly quick and often in very strange ways.

Finally, please don't confuse scientists in the media with being representative of the view in the mainstream. It's a very broad brush to tar all people in a particular field as worriers. Especially if you're basing if off those that repeatedly appear on primetime television.

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 06:00PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not dismissing it, just looking for more voices although even he's guessing as well. Israel's programme has not been affected by VOCs. TBH it just sounds like people on the hunt for more "scariants".

Sounds pretty dismissive when you resort to using the word " scariants " in response to my post .

is_that_so · 27-04-2021 06:02PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Sounds pretty dismissive when you resort to using the word " scariants " in response to my post .

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here. The problem with Mills et al is that they are prognosticating and they have about as much idea as the rest of us.

PhilOssophy · 27-04-2021 06:02PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. It is.
Better to have proper full protection than a population half done , like the UK , who are now starting to get very anxious about the different vocs getting a hold before people fully immunised .
Kingston Mills, who is a very sane and sensible person through this , got the wind up a lot of people last night discussing how the variants of concern are increasingly likely to prolong this .

I know there are people on here who think it is all over once we are vaccinated but looking very much as if this is just the start , unfortunately .

Do variants not happen in an unvaccinated population?

Strazdas · 27-04-2021 06:05PM

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

Miike · 27-04-2021 06:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here.

Do you know what the identified VOC mutations actually do/change? Serious question, not being facetious. There's a reason why highly educated people are anxious about these VOCs, I wouldn't be so quick to down play them but equally I wouldn't sit trembling at my desk over them either. I would suggest being less polarizing and being a bit more measured.

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 06:12PM

hmmm wrote: »

He might very well be right and I'm not qualified to judge, but that group of scientists seem to be worriers by nature. When you've the knowledge to know we're only one bad virus away from wiping out half of humanity it must weigh on you. The scientists and media in Ireland just seem to be extremely negative and downbeat, we're very different to the way most similar countries are reporting on this.

Florian Krammer on Twitter earlier (who seems to be on the more optimistic side) posted a pre-print of a study which showed that the "Indian variant" doesn't have much impact on vaccines - I remember you saying yesterday that Prof Mills was very worried about this variant. We've had Minks, and the UK, and the South African strains and so far nothing has been quite as bad as initial reports made it out to be.

I look for more balanced experts in general (and I'm a particular fan of Gottlieb), and they seem to be saying that while we will have some restrictions (e.g. wearing masks indoors) until 2022 we're largely back to normal in the second half of this year. That's not to say a new variant couldn't emerge which knocks everything back, but that's not the most likely thing to happen in the near future - and because it mutates at a slower speed than influenza we should be able to tweak vaccines in advance to deal with new mutations over the next few years.

I haven't posted by the way until today for a good while as was working so that was someone else.
I don't find him negative, he has been the best of our lot , Luke O'Neill a bit on the manic side I think , but again these are personal opinions .
I have read widely on this and while nobody knows which variant is going to cause trouble for the vaccines , the types of mutations on the b1.617 are both increasing transmission and also evading antibodies .
It is not known yet whether it is causing the deaths and high surge in India or whether it is just taking advantage of the increased circulation in a large unprotected population.
I am hoping that you are right in saying that it mutates more slowly and that we will have the necessary tweaks in vaccines to fight it , but it has mutated widely and relatively quickly over the last 15 months and especially to evade vaccination .

is_that_so · 27-04-2021 06:14PM

Miike wrote: »

Do you know what the identified VOC mutations actually do/change? Serious question, not being facetious. There's a reason why highly educated people are anxious about these VOCs, I wouldn't be so quick to down play them but equally I wouldn't sit trembling at my desk over them either. I would suggest being less polarizing and being a bit more measured.

None of them have escaped vaccines, that's all any of the rest of us care about. A permanent state of anxiety serves nobody, especially when there is no other evidence beyond warning people of that state of anxiety.

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 06:14PM

is_that_so wrote: »

There are now over 1m - one million, genomes of COVID registered and we have 3 VOCs, so yeah scariant is apt here. The problem with Mills et al is that they are prognosticating and they have about as much idea as the rest of us.

You are talking about a professor in immunology in a major university here !
But maybe you are more qualified?

dominatinMC · 27-04-2021 06:19PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

More and more people of knowledge like Kingston Mills whom I gave as an example are saying that .
He is not extreme by anyone's standards so when he says something like that I take notice .
You can decide for yourself , of course .
And not talking about these severe restrictions by the way , but continuing measures like masks and social distancing, and smaller gatherings until variants of concern are known to be controlled or vaccinated against.
Don't shoot the messenger !

This is not the thread for this .

Fair enough, I have a lot of time for Mills, he is one of more balanced contributors out there, without an agenda like the zero-covid zealots. However, I was taken aback by his comments last night, such as citing that study on the SA variant and then scaremongering about the Indian variant.
Tbf, I don't think the media ask the right questions of these scientists either, their questions are usually loaded to elicit a certain response. I'd love to sit down and ask my own questions! My gut feeling is that they know variants will cause some evasion, but ultimately the vaccines will protect against severe illness and death - the question is, is that good enough? We know scientists will always look for a "more perfect" solution, but will politicians and society tolerate "good enough"? I think so.

is_that_so · 27-04-2021 06:19PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

You are talking about a professor in immunology in a major university here !
But maybe you are more qualified?

No, not a bit. I gave you some facts in that post. I just asked you for more evidence from these other voices. You're not obliged to give me any just as I'm not obliged to accept your claim. Best to leave it there I'd say.

Beanybabog · 27-04-2021 06:21PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

What do you mean all 4, I thought it was only AZ and J&J being offered to them?

irishlad. · 27-04-2021 06:21PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=502588836

According to ECDC, 95% of 70-79 year olds have at least one dose, meaning there's about 16k left to be vaccinated.

31% of 60-69 year olds have at least one dose, leaving about 333k due a first dose.

ACitizenErased · 27-04-2021 06:22PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

It doesn't make sense at all in terms of supply. Just because it's certified for over 50s doesn't mean they'll be given it.

Miike · 27-04-2021 06:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

None of them have escaped vaccines, that's all any of the rest of us care about. A permanent state of anxiety serves nobody, especially when there is no other evidence beyond warning people of that state of anxiety.

I completely agree about the state of anxiety, that's a media reporting problem.

But its important to recognise they are called variants of concern not variants of imminent danger/death/destruction. These are things which need to be monitored and stopped because they have the potential to undermine vaccination efforts.

Strazdas · 27-04-2021 06:24PM

Beanybabog wrote: »

What do you mean all 4, I thought it was only AZ and J&J being offered to them?

RTE Six One reports Donnelly as saying the over 50s will be offered all four vaccines (people had merely been assuming that they would only be offered AZ and J & J).

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 06:25PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I called it correctly : all four vaccines to be offered to the over 50s.

It makes perfect sense, at least we get to move down through the age cohorts one by one this way.

Just because they're all available to use doesn't mean they'll all be given.

That's up to the HSE when assigning the vaccine.

They've plenty of AZ coming in so that's all still going to be heading to the 60-69 group (because they're currently being vaccinated), J&J isn't in big enough numbers yet and Pfizer & Moderna are still being used by other cohorts.

Beanybabog · 27-04-2021 06:29PM

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

Strazdas · 27-04-2021 06:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just because they're all available to use doesn't mean they'll all be given.

That's up to the HSE when assigning the vaccine.

They've plenty of AZ coming in so that's all still going to be heading to the 60-69 group, J&J isn't in big enough numbers yet and Pfizer & Moderna are still being used by other cohorts.

Yes, we don't actually know what the vaccine percentage breakdown will be for the over 50s. But it also means there is no policy to specifically target the over 50s with J & J and AZ only and they can also receive the other two - in other words, they'll get whatever is available at that moment in time.

Miike · 27-04-2021 06:31PM

Beanybabog wrote: »

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

You will be offered what ever is going in the vaccination center you get an appointment in . There is no vaccine menus to choose from at the moment. If they refuse, they refuse.

At 60+ if they're refusing vaccination because of AZ risks, I would suggest they speak with their GP/Practice Nurse to be educated around those risks and risks of covid etc.

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 06:33PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, we don't actually know what the vaccine percentage breakdown will be for the over 50s. But it also means there is no policy to specifically target the over 50s with J & J and AZ only and they can also receive the other two - in other words, they'll get whatever is available at that moment in time.

Which the HSE will dictate based on current supply and forecasted supply.

Can't see much changing here to be perfectly honest, not in the short term anyway. The various cohorts have the supply assigned to them by the HSE.

PhilOssophy · 27-04-2021 06:33PM

Beanybabog wrote: »

So what does that mean if 60+ refuse it? I have a very vaccine hesitant relative who decided not to register when they were saying AZ only or back to the queue. I am really hoping there’s a chance she can get one of the other 3, she’ll take them (not happily! but will suck up)

This isn't going to be a pick from a menu job....they will be offered a vaccine. End of.

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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