Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

seamus · 27-04-2021 04:11PM

Given the relatively low numbers, I wonder will they decide to drop this recommendation on the basis that it would take longer to figure out how to make it work than to just give these people a second jab.

If it's 120k people and we're vaccinating 250k a week, then applying this recommendation will "save" us about 3 days in the vaccination programme.

How many days will it cost to make it work?

Again, simplicity and speed are preferable to perfection. Same reason we removed the 15+ priority groups. Just get jabs in arms and get it done with.

duffman13 · 27-04-2021 04:11PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Another factor to consider is, is this going to be common practice now in other countries. What is the definition of "fully vaccinated" for EU green pass, remains to be seen if countries would let someone in without issue if they'd only 1 dose

It'll be interesting but Finland and somewhere else I can't recall have said from May, one dose is sufficient to travel into Finland with once its two weeks after administration

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:13PM

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Oh well once that 1 person is fully protected, that's grand then!

Yes. It is.
Better to have proper full protection than a population half done , like the UK , who are now starting to get very anxious about the different vocs getting a hold before people fully immunised .
Kingston Mills, who is a very sane and sensible person through this , got the wind up a lot of people last night discussing how the variants of concern are increasingly likely to prolong this .

I know there are people on here who think it is all over once we are vaccinated but looking very much as if this is just the start , unfortunately .

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 04:13PM

seamus wrote: »

Given the relatively low numbers, I wonder will they decide to drop this recommendation on the basis that it would take longer to figure out how to make it work than to just give these people a second jab.

If it's 120k people and we're vaccinating 250k a week, then applying this recommendation will "save" us about 3 days in the vaccination programme.

How many days will it cost to make it work?

Again, simplicity and speed are preferable to perfection. Same reason we removed the 15+ priority groups. Just get jabs in arms and get it done with.

Thinking the same, when I posted earlier about it not being "a game changer" my rough numbers were 3-4 days saved. It'll take longer than that to implement it.

It's really not going to make a blind bit of difference & gives rise to more questions if anything else.

Fitz* · 27-04-2021 04:13PM

Corholio wrote: »

Will be good for a certain number of people I guess.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1387052080343388165?s=19

How exactly would they know if people had COVID or not? And therefore 'eligible' for one dose.

We can assume that there is a database of all the confirmed positive cases maintained.

But what about the people under 50 that could have contracted the virus but never went forward for testing, were actually asymptomatic positive and are not an officially recorded case? That number could be high, especially in the late teens to mid 20s demographic.

Eod100 · 27-04-2021 04:13PM

Guess will need to be approved by Cabinet anyway. Could be a compromise to not spacing out doses so government have better chance of reaching 80% target by end of June. Seems to be an outlier to rest of the world though.

27-04-2021 04:15PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

We're leaving people with zero protection for additional weeks by prioritising the small additional protection given from a second dose.
Variants can also arise in unvaccinated populations, and people are far more likely to be infected when unvaccinated.

People who are bothered about getting a second dose are either going to turn up after 4 weeks, or not. It seems a doubtful argument that the extra 2 weeks is going to cause a people to not bother to turn up for 2nd dose.

You misunderstand my point.

Its that as we go past 80% first doses, the final 20% are the harder to get to, those with mental health issues, those who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons, the anti-vaxxers, the lazy, etc will make up a not insignificant portion of that group. But in essence, that 20% will benefit from the protection already given to the 80% because there is strong evidence that the vaccines significantly prevent transmission. By delaying 2nd doses to the 80% to catch up the 20% you run the risk that more people remain at increased risk unnecessarily, and counter intuitively putting those un-vaccinated or who cannot be vaccinated at increased risk. The vaccines have a two dose regime for a reason. Its not just for the extra few %. We know with lots of vaccines that without the booster, immunity can wane over time. The second doses "fixes" long term immunity.

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:17PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Why does end of June matter to their recommendations.
They are taking a risk by leaving people longer before getting any vaccine but its a risk they dont seem to put any weight on. They dont seem to own it as a risk.

That risk is less now they have restricted inward travel and we are only going to be easing restrictions very slowly .
If we have the numbers with J&J and the other vaccines better to continue fully vaccinating and get it done before people start travelling again .

josip · 27-04-2021 04:19PM

duffman13 wrote: »

It'll be interesting but Finland and somewhere else I can't recall have said from May, one dose is sufficient to travel into Finland with once its two weeks after administration

I'd be interested in what form of vaccination proof they will accept from other countries, since with a single dose of all except J&J, you won't be eligible for a US/EU green cert.

27-04-2021 04:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You misunderstand my point.

Its that as we go past 80% first doses, the final 20% are the harder to get to, those with mental health issues, those who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons, the anti-vaxxers, the lazy, etc will make up a not insignificant portion of that group. But in essence, that 20% will benefit from the protection already given to the 80% because there is strong evidence that the vaccines significantly prevent transmission. By delaying 2nd doses to the 80% to catch up the 20% you run the risk that more people remain at increased risk unnecessarily, and counter intuitively putting those un-vaccinated or who cannot be vaccinated at increased risk. The vaccines have a two dose regime for a reason. Its not just for the extra few %. We know with lots of vaccines that without the booster, immunity can wane over time. The second doses "fixes" long term immunity.

But we're not delaying the 80% to get the 20%. Currently we're doing the exact opposite, we're delaying the 80% who have 0 doses to give second doses to the 20% who already have one.

odyssey06 · 27-04-2021 04:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You misunderstand my point.

Its that as we go past 80% first doses, the final 20% are the harder to get to, those with mental health issues, those who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons, the anti-vaxxers, the lazy, etc will make up a not insignificant portion of that group. But in essence, that 20% will benefit from the protection already given to the 80% because there is strong evidence that the vaccines significantly prevent transmission. By delaying 2nd doses to the 80% to catch up the 20% you run the risk that more people remain at increased risk unnecessarily, and counter intuitively putting those un-vaccinated or who cannot be vaccinated at increased risk. The vaccines have a two dose regime for a reason. Its not just for the extra few %. We know with lots of vaccines that without the booster, immunity can wane over time. The second doses "fixes" long term immunity.

I really don't understand the point you are trying to make.
I'm not talking about delaying 2nd dose to catch up that 20%.
I'm talking about getting to the 80% in the next cohort quicker.
The more people there are unvaccinated without any dose the greater the risk of transmission.

If the concern is about long term immunity, I fail to see how pushing things out by a matter of weeks makes any difference.

Based on the argument you are making, I'm not sure on what grounds we should be using J&J single dose at all.

Eod100 · 27-04-2021 04:26PM

Apparently Cabinet have agreed it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/under-50s-in-good-health-who-had-covid-19-to-be-considered-fully-vaccinated-after-one-jab-1.4548886

Corholio · 27-04-2021 04:31PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1387061854351069187?s=19

27-04-2021 04:32PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Good question. Maybe member states will have leeway but would think it would need to be agreed at EU level. Also impacts who has to do MHQ too.

Did France ever start this? Their advisory body recommended single dose for previously infected back in February.

Doc07 · 27-04-2021 04:34PM

hmmm wrote: »

The US CDC decision meetings were deliberately held in public to increase confidence in the process. It would be great to see the same here.

Yes they were and perhaps worth noting that neither FDA or CDC endorsed increasing the interval between mRNA doses

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:35PM

seamus wrote: »

Rough crunch of the numbers suggests that the number of non-HCWs between 16 and 50 who've had covid is about 120,000.

So not a game-changer, but 120k doses now becoming available is not to be sniffed at.

A lot of that group are already fully vaccinated , so no saving there .
I remember us all discussing this back in February, going on responses to vaccines in HCWs and the growing evidence that antibodies post Covid infection were persisting .
Shame NI AC don't read this thread

MerlinSouthDub · 27-04-2021 04:35PM

Corholio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1387061854351069187?s=19

Arguing about 0.5% doesn't seem particularly useful, particularly as our reporting is two days behind.

Vicxas · 27-04-2021 04:37PM

Has anyone crunched the numbers on how the J&J for over 50's affects the end of June goal?

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:37PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Minus health care workers and minus the fact that this only applies to Pfizer & Moderna vaccines, it really isn't going to make that big of a difference, it's not a "game changer"

Don't get me wrong it's welcome advice but it's really not going to speed things up to any noticeable impact

Probably will speed up the end of the vaccination program.

iamwhoiam · 27-04-2021 04:40PM

So one of the last people to be fully vaccinated might in fact be the 60-70 years olds waiting for 12 weeks for a second dose ?

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 04:41PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Probably will speed up the end of the vaccination program.

With the numbers involved not an awful lot. A week or less on a rough look at the numbers

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:41PM

Eod100 wrote: »

HSE should have a database of everyone that has tested positive. Maybe appointment system could link in with that but does get tricky if someone is immunocompromised as no registry of that.

Those people would be group 4 or 7 most likely so will be fully vaccinated anyway .

duffman13 · 27-04-2021 04:41PM

josip wrote: »

I'd be interested in what form of vaccination proof they will accept from other countries, since with a single dose of all except J&J, you won't be eligible for a US/EU green cert.

From Finnair:

We will accept a Covid-19 vaccination certificate as an alternative to a negative test result or a certificate of a previous infection for travellers to Finland as of May 11. We accept vaccination certificates of all Covid-19 vaccines approved by the World Health Organisation or the European Medical Agency. The vaccine needs to be administered at least 21 days before your travel. The first dose is accepted for the certificate. https://www.finnair.com/en/flight-information/travel-updates/travelling-to-finland-2166280

RavenBea17b · 27-04-2021 04:41PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. It is.
Better to have proper full protection than a population half done , like the UK , who are now starting to get very anxious about the different vocs getting a hold before people fully immunised .
Kingston Mills, who is a very sane and sensible person through this , got the wind up a lot of people last night discussing how the variants of concern are increasingly likely to prolong this .

I know there are people on here who think it is all over once we are vaccinated but looking very much as if this is just the start , unfortunately .

Last figures I saw for UK were 49.7% one dose and 19% for second dose. (up to April 25th)
Not sure about UK getting very anxious. Their goal being to keep as many people out of hospital. Not seen anything about that- but then again I don't follow the news daily.
France have been following a one shot vaccine for people who already had tested positive for covid before, but I think - if I recall correctly, this was under constant review, due to people's production of t-cells/antibodies etc. HSE - does it have a working joined up system that has been collating and feeding directional (to and from Dr, pharmacy, vaccination system etc) ........ I suspect not , not in my experience

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 04:43PM

duffman13 wrote: »

From Finnair:

We will accept a Covid-19 vaccination certificate as an alternative to a negative test result or a certificate of a previous infection for travellers to Finland as of May 11. We accept vaccination certificates of all Covid-19 vaccines approved by the World Health Organisation or the European Medical Agency. The vaccine needs to be administered at least 21 days before your travel. The first dose is accepted for the certificate. https://www.finnair.com/en/flight-information/travel-updates/travelling-to-finland-2166280

1 countries policy. Others could and probably will be different. There'll be issues where some might accept 1 dose , others might say fully vax is 2 doses.
It's a can of worms really.

Best course of action to avoid any possible issues is still 2 doses and complete your course of vaccine

retro:electro · 27-04-2021 04:43PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

COVID protection wise, he didn't mean it literally, just to try and calm her and get her out of her panic attack.

I thought it was a lovely way of putting it!

So he lied to her to get her to take it? Hmm okay.

duffman13 · 27-04-2021 04:45PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

1 countries policy. Others could and probably will be different. There'll be issues where some might accept 1 dose , others might say fully vax is 2 doses.
It's a can of worms really.

Best course of action to avoid any possible issues is still 2 doses and complete your course of vaccine

No argument here tbh, just interesting to see the stance other countries are taking particularly those within the EU

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2021 04:46PM

duffman13 wrote: »

No argument here tbh, just interesting to see the stance other countries are taking particularly those within the EU

It's going to need a common approach of which there isn't one at the moment

Strazdas · 27-04-2021 04:48PM

Russman wrote: »

Is there actually a formal announcement of the NIAC advice and Tony's take on it, or does it just become "the way" we now do the rollout ?

It's the Govt itself which will make the official announcement (which hasn't come yet.....presumably this evening).

Goldengirl · 27-04-2021 04:48PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

With the numbers involved not an awful lot. A week or less on a rough look at the numbers

Yes . This measure is too late now and more hassle than help tbh .

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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