Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

1…139140142144145…331

Comments

  • #4232
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/niac-to-recommend-johnson-johnson-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines-for-over-50s-1.4547891

    Astra and jandj 50 and over


  • #4233
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    hmmm wrote: »
    Unless we have data which is not available to other regulators who have not imposed an age restriction, there's nothing wrong on a discussion forum asking why the recommendation in Ireland is different.

    All well and good, but that's not what I commented on.


  • #4234
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    It definitely matters if that wastage results in missed targets for the vaccine program and an even longer easing of restrictions for all society as a result

    You might vaccinate 50-70 year olds quicker but then that has knock on effects on the age groups under that which can't use AZ and J&J

    I think we're on the same hymn sheet here. We both want the most timely delivery of the program. Neither of us want vaccines sitting unused when people still need them. My original point was I have no issue if after the program is completed we have vaccines unused. I don't care if AZ is left sitting in a fridge for donation to another nation. I just want the program to be completely as swiftly as reasonably possible with herd immunity achieved.


  • #4235
    Doc07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭Doc07


    davidod1983 wrote: »
    Swamped in bureacracy. What could NIAC knew that allows them to against FDA & EMA recommendations? It's a farce at this stage. Do they not look at the risk of not vaccinating people quick enough so the virus won't be curtailed and people will die? Talking about 1 case per 1.1 million of a rare blood clot in the USA. Nearly 5,000 have died from this virus in Ireland.

    This decison will ultimately keep the virus active at a higher rate longer in the population.

    No problem with decisions being questioned but it might be worth pointing out that NIAC have not gone against any EMA recommendations.

    EMA (the regulator) approve the vaccine so it is available for use but do not give the actual recommendations for who and when it’s used. They actually put in a sentence in the licence for every vaccine that states

    ‘The use of this vaccine should be in accordance with official recommendations.’

    In Ireland those recommendations come from NIAC. Some EU countries will make the same, some will differ. Outside of the data the EMA (and in USA FDA) use for license decisions, NIAC and their equivalents across Europe have to also take into account the epidemiology and impact of Covid in their country and the presence or not of alternatives.


  • #4236
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ixoy wrote: »
    Do NIAC have to do any modelling? Do they have to account for the fact that, if they limit the vaccine by X amount, then it means Y number of people have to wait longer and are put at risk? Or do they just focus on age groups and completely ignore the knock on effects because that's someone else's problem?
    They should leave the decisions to the EMA. These old timers couldn't possibly have the modelling, resources or the data to compare to the EMA.


  • Advertisement
  • #4237
    Doc07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭Doc07


    davidod1983 wrote: »
    They should leave the decisions to the EMA. These old timers couldn't possibly have the modelling, resources or the data to compare to the EMA.

    NIAC and indeed the government can make use of modelling. It might surprise people but EMA and other regulators generally do not use modelling for vaccine approval decisions.


  • #4238
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Turtwig wrote: »
    I think we're on the same hymn sheet here. We both want the most timely delivery of the program. Neither of us want vaccines sitting unused when people still need them. My original point was I have no issue if after the program is completed we have vaccines unused. I don't care if AZ is left sitting in a fridge for donation to another nation. I just want the program to be completely as swiftly as reasonably possible with herd immunity achieved.

    Agreed

    We'll definitely have left over vaccine after the program

    Sure we have 2.2 million J&J on order alone

    I just don't agree with wasting AZ and J&J when younger groups will remain unvaccinated

    It's probably logistically harder for HSE but I do think after cohort 4 & 7 then it's AZ and J&J alone for 50-69 year olds bar second doses


  • #4239
    duffman13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,247 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Might be some hope yet on J&J if there is no other vaccine available people may be able to avail of it if they wish to do so. Really will depend on the wording of the NIAC recommendation.

    Really disappointing, 40s even would have given the vaccination programme far more wiggle room


  • #4240
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Doc07 wrote: »
    NIAC and indeed the government can make use of modelling. It might surprise people but EMA and other regulators generally do not use modelling for vaccine approval decisions.
    EMA use models as you can see below and this type of modelling would go into any decisions they make.
    https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/presentation/presentation-expected-impact-covid-19-vaccination-european-union-ecolzani-ecdc_en.pdf


    I have seen NPHET/NIAC recent data and scenario analysis from a few months ago. As someone who works with data and modelling I thought the presentation of their results were poor and some of their modelling assumptions were wild to say the least and have subsequently proved wide of the mark. They also couldn't even format the predicted spikes to fit onto a presentation and left them in regardless.


  • #4241
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,420 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    duffman13 wrote: »
    Might be some hope yet on J&J if there is no other vaccine available people may be able to avail of it if they wish to do so. Really will depend on the wording of the NIAC recommendation.

    Really disappointing, 40s even would have given the vaccination programme far more wiggle room

    Are they ruled out though? That line "if no other vaccine is available" could leave far more room for manoeuvre than people think - you could easily end up seeing even hundreds of thousands getting it with that proviso.


  • Advertisement
  • #4242
    Doc07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭Doc07


    davidod1983 wrote: »
    EMA use models as you can see below.
    https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/presentation/presentation-expected-impact-covid-19-vaccination-european-union-ecolzani-ecdc_en.pdf


    I have seen their recent data and scenario analysis from a few months ago. As someone who works with data and modelling I thought the presentation of their results were poor and some of their modelling assumptions were wild to say the least and have subsequently proved wide of the mark. They also couldn't even format the predicted spikes to fit onto a presentation and left them in regardless.


    The modelling in that presentation is for the ECDC work on vaccine impact as part of a proposed collaboration with EMA.

    Fair enough your point overall and ’m very far from a modelling expert. Not defending a bad presentation but NIAC don’t do the modelling rather can make use of it for considerations.


  • #4243
    AMKC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,810 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    They better not make the JandJ vaccine just for 50 and over like the media are saying or it will be the best part of a decade before I get my vaccine lol. Joking aside I think that is stupid. What is the difference between someone who is 40 and someone 50 or 52 etc? What could I a 40 year get a clot from it easier? I will take my chance thank you. It is the Vaccine I want. I think I should be giving that choice to decide if I want it not done stupid organisation we did not even hear about 6months ago because they did not exist then.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • #4244
    revelman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,006 ✭✭✭revelman


    Woody79 wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/niac-to-recommend-johnson-johnson-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines-for-over-50s-1.4547891

    Astra and jandj 50 and over

    I should do the lotto. I predicted this earlier today based on nothing but a gut feeling! :)


  • #4245
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    AMKC wrote: »
    They better not make the JandJ vaccine just for 50 and over like the media are saying or it will be the best part of a decade before I get my vaccine lol. Joking aside I think that is stupid. What is the difference between someone who is 40 and someone 50 or 52 etc? What could I a 40 year get a clot from it easier? I will take my chance thank you. It is the Vaccine I want. I think I should be giving that choice to decide if I want it not done stupid organisation we did not even hear about 6months ago because they did not exist then.

    NPHET didn't exist over a year ago. NIAC is around with a few decades.


  • #4246
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    AMKC wrote: »
    . I think I should be giving that choice to decide if I want it not done stupid organisation we did not even hear about 6months ago because they did not exist then.

    Just because you've never heard of them does not mean they didn't exist. NIAC was established in 1998


  • #4247
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,420 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    VM1 Tonight Show says there will be no announcement tonight but they pretty much confirm the over 50s J & J story.


  • #4248
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,249 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    AMKC wrote: »
    They better not make the JandJ vaccine just for 50 and over like the media are saying or it will be the best part of a decade before I get my vaccine lol. Joking aside I think that is stupid. What is the difference between someone who is 40 and someone 50 or 52 etc? What could I a 40 year get a clot from it easier? I will take my chance thank you. It is the Vaccine I want. I think I should be giving that choice to decide if I want it not done stupid organisation we did not even hear about 6months ago because they did not exist then.

    While I agree with your point in all fairness none of us got a choice of vaccines . I would have chosen Pfizer but got AZ . I was glad to get it and am grateful for it


  • #4249
    revelman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,006 ✭✭✭revelman


    If they are going to bring down the AZ age to 50, surely this means things are back on track?


  • #4250
    Apogee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,893 ✭✭✭Apogee


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Which is about the size of 50-59 age group. To paraphrase Varadkar we will have 4 vaccines for the over 50s but only 2 (really only one) for the under 50s!

    CSO estimates 50-59 population total at 608,700 (will include high risk etc).

    DoH estimates Janssen deliveries of 604,800 by end of June:
    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379770370434158595?s=19


  • #4251
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,336 ✭✭✭blackcard


    NIAC should not be making this decision on restrictions purely on the minute risk of blood clots. They have to take into account the possible delays in rolling out the vaccine programme and the risks associated with that. They also have to take into the mental health of those affected by the delays and the economic cost of any delay. The country is on its knees and cannot afford the over abundance of caution that is destroying Ireland.


  • Advertisement
  • #4252
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,772 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    If J&J and AZ were the only approved vaccines in the EU what would NIAC recommend? Herd immunity for most under 50's?


  • #4253
    AMKC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,810 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    While I agree with your point in all fairness none of us got a choice of vaccines . I would have chosen Pfizer but got AZ . I was glad to get it and am grateful for it

    That's ok for you but some of us are not good with needles been stuck in our arms. The less of them in my arm the better for me. Fainting once is better than fainting twice.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • #4254
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Speak Now wrote: »
    If J&J and AZ were the only approved vaccines in the EU what would NIAC recommend? Herd immunity for most under 50's?

    Forever lockdown.


  • #4255
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,249 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    AMKC wrote: »
    That's ok for you but some of us are not good with needles been stuck in our arms. The less of them in my arm the better for me. Fainting once is better than fainting twice.

    Sorry you have that issue . Believe me it is so quick and you won’t even feel it .


  • #4256
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    revelman wrote: »
    If they are going to bring down the AZ age to 50, surely this means things are back on track?
    I'm not sure it makes much difference. Unless we give one of these vaccines to under-50s, we're going to end up with vaccines we can't use once the over 50s are vaccinated.

    I'm also not sure I understand the line in the media that the J&J vaccine can be used by under 50s if no other vaccines are available. What does "available" mean? We have Pfizer & Moderna - it might be a months delay before you get them, but they are "available".

    The Government should also be asked for an explanation as to what has changed which allows the AZ vaccine to be given out to over-50s now.

    And at the end of all that, someone should really be asked why we keep getting this information through leaks. The CDC in the US solved this by holding their meetings in public - should we consider the same in Ireland because the current situation does not help public confidence ?


  • #4257
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Did I not hear something earlier about a proven treatment for when these blood clots arise? Why can't we go with that instead of limiting their use?


  • #4258
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Doc07 wrote: »
    The modelling in that presentation is for the ECDC work on vaccine impact as part of a proposed collaboration with EMA.

    Fair enough your point overall and ’m very far from a modelling expert. Not defending a bad presentation but NIAC don’t do the modelling rather can make use of it for considerations.

    This is the presentation if you're interested- from the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) - slide 16 says it all. To put out a scenario of 578,000 cases (278,000 – 792,000) which takes into account 85% vaccine effectiveness 28 days from the first dose and an uptake 80-90% isn't a realistic scenario. The rate at which they decided R will decrease from 2 as the vaccine is implemented from Apr 5th is wrong.

    How 5 organisations can put their name on this pack and sign off on it is worrying, they can't even format the graphs to fit the page. It wouldn't happen in a properly run private company. Too many stakeholders involved. People in NIAC get presentations of these ilk who likely don't fully understand modelling making assumptions and this is why they should trust the EMA to make these calls.

    https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1


  • #4259
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,610 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Speak Now wrote: »
    If J&J and AZ were the only approved vaccines in the EU what would NIAC recommend? Herd immunity for most under 50's?

    They would recommend it to everyone.

    It’s difficult for people to grasp, but the availability of safer vaccines makes it ethically prudent to err on the side of caution. If a couple of weeks is the difference in removing risk for younger cohorts it is the right decision.


  • #4260
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Kingston Mills unusually glum on Claire Byrne live

    Surprised at NIAC decision to limit J&J

    Would prefer to take J&J over AZ

    Worried about Indian Variant


  • Advertisement
  • #4261
    Doc07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭Doc07


    davidod1983 wrote: »
    This is the presentation if you're interested- from the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) - slide 16 says it all. To put out a scenario of 578,000 cases (278,000 – 792,000) which takes into account 85% vaccine effectiveness 28 days from the first dose and an uptake 80-90% isn't a realistic scenario. The rate at which they decided R will decrease from 2 as the vaccine is implemented from Apr 5th is wrong.

    How 5 organisations can put their name on this pack and sign off on it is worrying, they can't even format the graphs to fit the page. It wouldn't happen in a properly run private company. Too many stakeholders involved. People in NIAC get presentations of these ilk who likely don't fully understand modelling making assumptions and this is why they should trust the EMA to make these calls.

    https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1

    Thanks for posting it. However on the last point EMA don’t make the call on who should get what vaccine, especially when their are more than one vaccine in the mix.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement