Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

hmmm · 26-04-2021 07:55PM

It's Professor Butler. I don't blame NIAC here, they do what they do and recommend. The Government ultimately makes the decision, and it needs to consider the wider needs of the country.

is_that_so · 26-04-2021 07:57PM

Meanwhile in the US, people not getting their 2nd shots.

Nearly 8 percent of those who got initial Pfizer or Moderna shots missed their second doses. State officials want to prevent the numbers from rising.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/business/covid-vaccines-second-doses.html

ACitizenErased · 26-04-2021 07:57PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's Professor Butler. I don't blame NIAC here, they do what they do and recommend. The Government ultimately makes the decision, and it needs to consider the wider needs of the country.

Has the government ever actually done that?

26-04-2021 07:57PM

It's getting very messy. Would a 45 year old or a 55 year old have any idea when they will be vaccinated and with what vaccine?

EddieN75 · 26-04-2021 07:58PM

Do we have any data on the actual numbers refusing the vaccine by age category?

When they say the over 70s are vaccinated obviously it doesn't mean every over 70 in the country went for it.

As they go down through the ages I think more and more will refuse to take it. It might be only 10 to 20 percent of a certain age group (10 year) but it would be interesting to see the data.
Perhaps the data doesn't exist , would they have to cross reference with latest census figures to get the actual number of each person in each age group plus it hasn't actually happened yet as they are only in 60s group

And to be honest nobody has the time nor is it a priority right now.

I ask because I'm early to mid 30s and know plenty of people who aren't particularly interested or keen on taking a vaccine. Do I just happen to know the vaccine hesitant by some coincidence or is it more widespread.

MerlinSouthDub · 26-04-2021 07:59PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's Professor Butler. I don't blame NIAC here, they do what they do and recommend. The Government ultimately makes the decision, and it needs to consider the wider needs of the country.

Ah I don't agree with you there. Very difficult to overrule medical advice like this. If NIAC's advice is more openly worded e.g. preference to use J&J for over 50s but safe at all ages, then the government would have a free hand. Let's see what the advice actually says when published, but their advice on AZ left very little wriggle room.

Turtwig · 26-04-2021 08:00PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's Professor Butler. I don't blame NIAC here, they do what they do and recommend. The Government ultimately makes the decision, and it needs to consider the wider needs of the country.

That would make for a fascinating legal and ethical discussion. I doubt they'd be brave enough to explore it.

Level 42 · 26-04-2021 08:03PM

This is utter madness restricting it to 50 plus.who does this butler think she is

banana republic

26-04-2021 08:04PM

Is it likely 49 year olds will be vaccinated with Pfizer long before many in their 50s with "inferior jab in some people's eyes". This is a nightmare for hse. Do they shoehorn all people in their 50s with jandj and get on with vaccinating 40s.

lucernarian · 26-04-2021 08:05PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Ah I don't agree with you there. Very difficult to overrule medical advice like this. If NIAC's advice is more openly worded e.g. preference to use J&J for over 50s but safe at all ages, then the government would have a free hand. Let's see what the advice actually says when published, but their advice on AZ left very little wriggle room.

Are they considering potential for future lawsuits by an unlucky few who end up seriously injured by a blood clot, or what? It's hard to make sense of NIAC's rationale given Janssen seems to have a better safety profile than AZ to begin with...

Cork2021 · 26-04-2021 08:07PM

Will the wider needs of the public be taken on board? No they won’t, as we’ve seen since last February!
Due to an abundance of caution our hospitality and tourism industry will go to the wall!
Who would’ve imagined a more restrictive summer in 2021 compared to 2020, even with vaccines!
It’s a joke!
The motto should be jab jab jab and move on!
Feeling this roadmap that’ll be published Friday will be pessimistic at best and will cost us!
Just look at the front page of the examiner today! Troika level cuts coming!
We can avoid some of this!!

marno21 · 26-04-2021 08:08PM

We will now be in a bizarre situation where in June we'll be giving the most effective vaccines to healthy 18 year olds and less effective vaccines to people in their 50s for a disease where the number one risk factor is increase in age.

There is a very very poor understanding of risk management being applied here.

hmmm · 26-04-2021 08:09PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Ah I don't agree with you there. Very difficult to overrule medical advice like this. If NIAC's advice is more openly worded e.g. preference to use J&J for over 50s but safe at all ages, then the government would have a free hand. Let's see what the advice actually says when published, but their advice on AZ left very little wriggle room.

Agreed on the wriggle room. There's no magic cutoff at 50, the advice from the CMO has to have a flexibility in it (and if there isn't you have to ask about the quality of the advice).

For example, why are men under 50 excluded and based on what data was this decision made? If the government even said that group could be included it would avoid any risk of unused vaccines.

Stark · 26-04-2021 08:10PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes but there is also the issue of trying to get that age cohort done before moving on to the 40s and 30s. It's hard to imagine a scenario where healthy people in their 30s would be getting vaccinated whilst those in their fifties hadn't even received their first dose yet.

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that. I think most of the J&J is coming in June and they will want to be down to the 30s at that point. I am so glad I don't have to plan this!

It's funny, Denmark has no issue with vaccinating under-30s before 35 - 54 years olds on the basis that they're responsible for the bulk of transmission so it means being able to drive case numbers down sooner and open up sooner. Totally different political landscape though. Donnelly merely asking the question of whether it makes sense to do the same here meant outrage dialled up to 11.

PropJoe10 · 26-04-2021 08:11PM

If this J&J decision delays our vaccination program then someone should be forced to answer for it. What information does the Irish authority have that neither the EMA nor the US agency have?

You've about a 1 in 6000 chance of developing a blood clot on a long haul flight. Yet, we're now limiting this vaccine due to a 1 in around 1 million chance (reported) of getting a blood clot. Madness.

26-04-2021 08:12PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's Professor Butler. I don't blame NIAC here, they do what they do and recommend. The Government ultimately makes the decision, and it needs to consider the wider needs of the country.

But we know they won't do that because they'll be utterly lynched by the media for going against the medical advice.

We now have two medical bodies preaching absolute caution, but actually conflicting eachother because of it. One body will continue to make recommendations to keep large sections of society closed until we reach herd immunity, the other body is saying the virus isn't dangerous enough to young people to justify taking these 2 vaccines.

Its absolutely nuts and looks like they're just out to save their own backs

Level 42 · 26-04-2021 08:17PM

absolute sh1t show the whole vaccine roll out

KrustyUCC · 26-04-2021 08:18PM

AdamD wrote: »

But we know they won't do that because they'll be utterly lynched by the media for going against the medical advice.

We now have two medical bodies preaching absolute caution, but actually conflicting eachother because of it. One body will continue to make recommendations to keep large sections of society closed until we reach herd immunity, the other body is saying the virus isn't dangerous enough to young people to justify taking these 2 vaccines.

Its absolutely nuts and looks like they're just out to save their own backs

Plus Karina Butler of NIAC is a part of NPHET

MerlinSouthDub · 26-04-2021 08:20PM

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed on the wriggle room. There's no magic cutoff at 50, the advice from the CMO has to have a flexibility in it (and if there isn't you have to ask about the quality of the advice).

For example, why are men under 50 excluded and based on what data was this decision made? If the government even said that group could be included it would avoid any risk of unused vaccines.

Yes hopefully the CMO inserts some wriggle room. If i were the government, I'd jump on any wriggle room available!

Another issue that concerns me is that we are going to end up using a lot of J&J and AZ in the 50-70 age group, and very little Pfizer. While I think all of the vaccines are very good, it would surprise me greatly if one dose J&J and AZ end up being as good as Pfizer, particularly on the new variants. At a minimum, it would be better if we had more diversity of vaccines used in the age group, rather than mostly AZ in 60 - 69 and possibly mostly J&J in the 50-59 age group.

Valhallapt · 26-04-2021 08:22PM

If the allow J&J to the whole population maybe one person will die from a blood clot. If they restrict it, lockdown will continue for an additional 6-8 weeks, I fear the death rate from mental health issues would be much higher.

KrustyUCC · 26-04-2021 08:23PM

There should be no more Pfizer used in those age groups bar dose 2s and those with medical needs

AZ needs to be used for all 60-69 year olds and J&J 50-59 now that NIAC have limited their use to those age groups

marno21 · 26-04-2021 08:24PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

If this J&J decision delays our vaccination program then someone should be forced to answer for it. What information does the Irish authority have that neither the EMA nor the US agency have?

You've about a 1 in 6000 chance of developing a blood clot on a long haul flight. Yet, we're now limiting this vaccine due to a 1 in around 1 million chance (reported) of getting a blood clot. Madness.

In fairness, the blood clots on a flight are different to the blood clots given by the adenovirus viral vector vaccines. This type of blood clot from the vaccine is much rarer (CVST).

That said, with the J&J vaccine, the risk is utterly minimal. If we give out 600k vaccines in Q2, there is a 60% chance that one person will suffer fatal side effects from the vaccine. 60% of one person out of 600k.

It's downright awful risk management.

Strazdas · 26-04-2021 08:24PM

Woody79 wrote: »

Is it likely 49 year olds will be vaccinated with Pfizer long before many in their 50s with "inferior jab in some people's eyes". This is a nightmare for hse. Do they shoehorn all people in their 50s with jandj and get on with vaccinating 40s.

I'm not sure why people think that people in their 50s won't be given Pfizer and Moderna. If the aim is to work progressively down through the cohorts, then the logical thing to do would be to give all three vaccines to people in their fifties (i.e. whatever is available at that moment). Simply giving them J & J only and leaving hundreds of thousands of them to wait for many weeks until more J & J doses become available makes absolutely no sense.

Miike · 26-04-2021 08:25PM

The J&J decision has left me baffled anyway!

MerlinSouthDub · 26-04-2021 08:25PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm not sure why people think that people in their 50s won't be given Pfizer and Moderna. If the aim is to work progressively down through the cohorts, then the logical thing to do would be to give all three vaccines to people in their fifties (i.e. whatever is available at that moment). Simply giving them J & J only and leaving hundreds of thousands of them to wait for many weeks until more J & J doses become available makes absolutely no sense.

But, with your approach, we end up with hundreds of thousands of unused J&J vaccines.

Turtwig · 26-04-2021 08:26PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

You've about a 1 in 6000 chance of developing a blood clot on a long haul flight. Yet, we're now limiting this vaccine due to a 1 in around 1 million chance (reported) of getting a blood clot. Madness.

One is a treatable clotting condition. The other is a severe clotting disorder where currently about 40% of cases are fatal.

Current incident rate for J&J is still being narrowed down.
Incident rate for AZ is around 1 in 125k.

Your comparison not like for like. The incidence rate you use of 1 in a million will very likely end being higher as the stats and reporting are still in flux.

ACitizenErased · 26-04-2021 08:26PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

But, with your approach, we end up with hundreds of thousands of unused J&J vaccines.

this point is constantly constantly missed on here

Sweet.Science · 26-04-2021 08:27PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

There should be no more Pfizer used in those age groups bar dose 2s and those with medical needs

AZ needs to be used for all 60-69 year olds and J&J 50-59 now that NIAC have limited their use to those age groups

Then younger people will be vaccinated before older people due to supply

It's a farce . Typical really but no surprising

ACitizenErased · 26-04-2021 08:27PM

Turtwig wrote: »

One is a treatable clotting condition. The other is a severe clotting disorder where currently about 40% of cases are fatal.

Current incident rate for J&J is still being narrowed down.
Incident rate for AZ is around 1 in 125k.

Your comparison not like for like. The incidence rate you use of 1 in a million will very likely end being higher than as the stats and reporting are still in flux.

Both are treatable clotting conditions*. FDA J&J pause was for the exact reason of summarising treatments.

Flange/Flanders · 26-04-2021 08:31PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Will the wider needs of the public be taken on board? No they won’t, as we’ve seen since last February!
Due to an abundance of caution our hospitality and tourism industry will go to the wall!
Who would’ve imagined a more restrictive summer in 2021 compared to 2020, even with vaccines!
It’s a joke!
The motto should be jab jab jab and move on!
Feeling this roadmap that’ll be published Friday will be pessimistic at best and will cost us!
Just look at the front page of the examiner today! Troika level cuts coming!
We can avoid some of this!!

I agree, the country wont take much more sustained periods of lockdown, especially if the hospital numbers keep falling. I cant understand NIACs precaution, are they afraid of some lawsuits that may arise out of the vaccines?! The risks of clots is much higher in Covid so I cant understand why they're being so cautious. Maybe it's because they feel that Pfizer will be readily available but that wouldnt be right either, it should be analysed independent of other vaccines and leave it up to the govt to decide which one is best. Noone would have thought that Boris Johnson actually appears somewhat competent but that's all due to the vaccine roll out! Unless they start planning for opening up, people are just going to go up the north!!

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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