POI for the Coroners Society of Ireland, Nphet’s figures for deaths may be innacurate

drunkmonkey · 18-04-2021 7:31pm #1

Death figures reported by Nphet “do not have a scientific basis”, according to the Mayo coroner Patrick O’Connor.

He claims that many of those recorded as having died from Covid-19 were already suffering with other underlying illnesses that may have caused their deaths.

O’Connor, who acts as a public information officer for the Coroners Society of Ireland, said that recording Covid-19 as the principal cause of death when a person was already terminally ill raised questions about the accuracy of the figures.

Mayo coroner questions Nphet’s figures for Covid deaths
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/mayo-coroner-questions-nphets-figures-for-covid-deaths-40326117.html

It does appear like he's correct, surprised he's the first to speak out we're a long way into this, why would the NPHET try and make the situation look worse than it is.

Wolf359f · 18-04-2021 7:37pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Death figures reported by Nphet “do not have a scientific basis”, according to the Mayo coroner Patrick O’Connor.

He claims that many of those recorded as having died from Covid-19 were already suffering with other underlying illnesses that may have caused their deaths.

O’Connor, who acts as a public information officer for the Coroners Society of Ireland, said that recording Covid-19 as the principal cause of death when a person was already terminally ill raised questions about the accuracy of the figures.

Mayo coroner questions Nphet’s figures for Covid deaths
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/mayo-coroner-questions-nphets-figures-for-covid-deaths-40326117.html

It does appear like he's correct, surprised he's the first to speak out we're a long way into this, why would the NPHET try and make the situation look worse than it is.

NPHET just report the figured they recieve from HPSC, so the coroner should be questioning them and not NPHET. Not once in that article is the HPSC mentioned.

Valhallapt · 18-04-2021 7:43pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Death figures reported by Nphet “do not have a scientific basis”, according to the Mayo coroner Patrick O’Connor.

He claims that many of those recorded as having died from Covid-19 were already suffering with other underlying illnesses that may have caused their deaths.

O’Connor, who acts as a public information officer for the Coroners Society of Ireland, said that recording Covid-19 as the principal cause of death when a person was already terminally ill raised questions about the accuracy of the figures.

Mayo coroner questions Nphet’s figures for Covid deaths
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/mayo-coroner-questions-nphets-figures-for-covid-deaths-40326117.html

It does appear like he's correct, surprised he's the first to speak out we're a long way into this, why would the NPHET try and make the situation look worse than it is.

Yes about time this point was raised. The daily death figures are not close to accurate. The difference is died FROM covid vs died WITH covid. I know personally two such cases, one was a 45 year old relative who had terminal cancer, he was given weeks to live and must have got covid in the hospital or when he came home to die from a visitor, covid did not kill him cancer did. Another case is an elderly lady who got covid and seemed to make a good recovery, but had a fall after and died in hospital a few days later. Covid didn’t kill her the fall did.

banie01 · 18-04-2021 7:47pm

Don't get too swept up in a Coroner taking a stance behind the science here.

Coroner's in Ireland are an appointed quasi-judicial position usually filled by Solicitors or Barristers.
This isn't a "gotcha" this is a solicitor greatly exceeding his professional competence.

He is neither a Doctor, Pathologist nor Medical Scientist.
I'll be far more appreciative of the input of both Pathologists and epidemiologists than I will be of a solicitor in matters of causation of death and it's mitigation.

crossman47 · 18-04-2021 7:49pm

We'll know more about this when CSO publish final figures for the year. The excess deaths (over the average for recent years) will be a good indication of mortality due to Covid only. It will also have accelerated other deaths i.e. happened in Q1 rather than later in year.

odyssey06 · 18-04-2021 7:49pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yes about time this point was raised. The daily death figures are not close to accurate. The difference is died FROM covid vs died WITH covid. I know personally two such cases, one was a 45 year old relative who had terminal cancer, he was given weeks to live and must have got covid in the hospital or when he came home to die from a visitor, covid did not kill him cancer did. Another case is an elderly lady who got covid and seemed to make a good recovery, but had a fall after and died in hospital a few days later. Covid didn’t kill her the fall did.

Strange to just have a fall after being in hospital for a serious infection.

How do you know they were even included in the covid death figures?

At the end of the day, died with v from covid is a red herring to the impact covid is having on hospitals and infection control etc

Wolf359f · 18-04-2021 7:50pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yes about time this point was raised. The daily death figures are not close to accurate. The difference is died FROM covid vs died WITH covid. I know personally two such cases, one was a 45 year old relative who had terminal cancer, he was given weeks to live and must have got covid in the hospital or when he came home to die from a visitor, covid did not kill him cancer did. Another case is an elderly lady who got covid and seemed to make a good recovery, but had a fall after and died in hospital a few days later. Covid didn’t kill her the fall did.

It's like dejavu all over again. Like all notified diseases, they get mentioned on a death cert for obvious reasons.
Your second example that lady would have what ever the cause of death was, as a result of a fall. And then covid would be listed under a separate section. It's not a cause of death or even a contributing factor.

Now they need to clarify the wording they use when they announce deaths. It should be worded as deaths due to covid.

Valhallapt · 18-04-2021 7:52pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

Strange to just have a fall after being in hospital for a serious infection.

How do you know they were even included in the covid death figures?

At the end of the day, died with v from covid is a red herring to the impact covid is having on hospitals and infection control etc

Yea maybe covid left her a bit weak when she had the fall so it’s hard to know.

Covid was mentioned on both death certs- that’s then classified as died from covid.

I’m not down plying the serious nature of covid, but NEPHET should be much more transparent on how the numbers are calculated

Valhallapt · 18-04-2021 7:55pm

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's like dejavu all over again. Like all notified diseases, they get mentioned on a death cert for obvious reasons.
Your second example that lady would have what ever the cause of death was, as a result of a fall. And then covid would be listed under a separate section. It's not a cause of death or even a contributing factor.

Now they need to clarify the wording they use when they announce deaths. It should be worded as deaths due to covid.

Yes that’s my point the NEPHET numbers include every death certificate that mentions covid, regardless of it being the cause or not

BrianD3 · 18-04-2021 7:59pm

The proof (yes or no) will be when the CSO issues its report on principal causes of death for 2020. I'm open to correction but think that each death is attributed to ONE cause. And crucially, the number of deaths from cancer and diseases of the circulatory system doesn't vary much from one year to the next.

Some 2020 deaths are going to be correctly attributed to Covid - but if, at the same time, there is a considerable decrease in deaths from cancer compared to 2019, that would show that cancer deaths have been attributed to Covid.

The from/with debate has been done extensively on this forum and when poster bring up that figures may be overstated, other posters rebut this by appealing to the authority of the coroner i.e. if deaths are initially overstated they will be "denotified". And yet, now we have a coroner questioning the figures.

Smee_Again · 18-04-2021 8:01pm

What’s the coroner’s background that he can make such a claim?

Wolf359f · 18-04-2021 8:06pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yes that’s my point the NEPHET numbers include every death certificate that mentions covid, regardless of it being the cause or not

A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma)

That's how a covid death is defined in Ireland.
Covid being listed on the death cert is irrelevant unless it's listed as a cause of death/contributing factor. It's a notified disease, so even murders and drownings, motor vehicle accidents involving people who are covid positive would have covid listed on the death cert, but not as a cause of death.

If they had syphilis, Gonorrhoea or herpes, they would also be listed on the death cert as again they are notified diseases. But not as the cause of death.

odyssey06 · 18-04-2021 8:08pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yea maybe covid left her a bit weak when she had the fall so it’s hard to know.
Covid was mentioned on both death certs- that’s then classified as died from covid.
I’m not down plying the serious nature of covid, but NEPHET should be much more transparent on how the numbers are calculated

In the first case, for example, terminal cancer, who is responsible for putting covid on the death cert?

Zebra3 · 18-04-2021 8:09pm

Wolf359f wrote: »

NPHET just report the figured they recieve from HPSC, so the coroner should be questioning them and not NPHET. Not once in that article is the HPSC mentioned.

And I would hope that if the professionals in NPHET thought there was something odd about figures they were being provided they'd call it out.

They would do that, wouldn't they?

Jim_Hodge · 18-04-2021 8:10pm

Zebra3 wrote: »

And I would hope that if the professionals in NPHET thought there was something odd about figures they were being provided they'd call it out.

They would do that, wouldn't they?

They do. It's why deaths are declassified.

Valhallapt · 18-04-2021 8:24pm

Zebra3 wrote: »

And I would hope that if the professionals in NPHET thought there was something odd about figures they were being provided they'd call it out.

They would do that, wouldn't they?

it’s a grey area, and not always obvious. In the uk they are very transparent about it. The death rate is anyone who died within 28 days of a positive covid test. They openly admit that it includes deaths from things like car crashes, but likewise it may miss some covid deaths due to an elderly person not having had a covid test. So it balances out in the end. But at least they are transparent about it.

NEPHET often make statements like 18 deaths, 11 prior to April, that is someone manually reading death certs to see if covid is mentioned.

Equally some will have died from covid but had it left off the death certificate or missclassified as the flu or something else.

normanoffside · 18-04-2021 8:24pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

In the first case, for example, terminal cancer, who is responsible for putting covid on the death cert?

If they had Covid at the time of death it is down as a covid death without question.

This is not actually news, Even Leo Varadkar said as much last a year ago and NPHET when questioned have said they are just following ECDC guidelines.

At the same stage I am glad it is being reported again as it highlights that not all reported deaths were because of Covid.

https://twitter.com/leovaradkar/status/1278995351169613824?lang=en

Ficheall · 18-04-2021 8:42pm

~10% increase in parts for the 65+ last spring, ~10% increase at Christmas, ~5% decrease around nowish.

Things would probably have been worse without restrictions or most people taking precautions. Here's the Europe graph:

Stormyteacup · 19-04-2021 12:18am

Wolf359f wrote: »

That's how a covid death is defined in Ireland.
Covid being listed on the death cert is irrelevant unless it's listed as a cause of death/contributing factor. It's a notified disease, so even murders and drownings, motor vehicle accidents involving people who are covid positive would have covid listed on the death cert, but not as a cause of death.

If they had syphilis, Gonorrhoea or herpes, they would also be listed on the death cert as again they are notified diseases. But not as the cause of death.

I realise the WHO guidelines for reporting Covid deaths would indicate you are correct, however it seems we are not following those guidelines as you’ve interpreted.

From HSPC website;
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyfrequentlyaskedquestions/

‘Q. Can you describe what death in confirmed/probable/possible case of COVID-19 means?
The case definition for COVID-19 in Ireland has been updated routinely during the pandemic in accordance with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) guidance and updates.

Deaths in confirmed COVID-19 case: A death in a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms (including post mortem).

Deaths in probable COVID-19 case: A death in a person with probable COVID-19 infection as described in the COVID-19 case definition below

Deaths in possible/suspect COVID-19 case: See below scenarios for possible/suspect cases which should be reported as COVID-19 deaths.

All deaths in patients suspected of having COVID-19 i.e. patients with symptoms clinically compatible with COVID-19 illness. These suspect cases may or may not have been tested for COVID-19 prior to death. These possible COVID-19 deaths include patients with pending COVID-19 laboratory results.
All unexplained deaths/sudden deaths in residential facilities with a confirmed/suspected COVID-19 cluster/outbreak of illness unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID-19 disease (e.g. trauma)
A person can be classified as a probable or possible COVID-19 death without laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 based on the criteria for probable and possible cases of COVID-19 as outlined in the case definition.’

From The Journal ‘Factcheck’;

‘When asked how Covid-19 deaths are recorded, a spokesperson for the HSE told TheJournal.ie: “In cases where an individual who has had a positive Covid-19 test before or after death, this will be notified to the national surveillance system and reported by HPSC as a death in a confirmed Covid-19 case.”

They added that where the treating doctor has “a strong clinical suspicion” the patient had Covid-19 “due to the circumstances” and “the nature of the illness” but where the person has tested negative for the virus, or not been tested at all, these deaths will be notified to the national surveillance system and reported by the HPSC as a death in a “probable/possible Covid-19 case”.

If it is later confirmed that the patient in question did not have the virus, their death is removed from the official figures.‘

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/%3famp=1

Wolf359f · 19-04-2021 12:34am

Stormyteacup wrote: »

I realise the WHO guidelines for reporting Covid deaths would indicate you are correct, however it seems we are not following those guidelines as you’ve interpreted.

From HSPC website;
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyfrequentlyaskedquestions/

‘Q. Can you describe what death in confirmed/probable/possible case of COVID-19 means?
The case definition for COVID-19 in Ireland has been updated routinely during the pandemic in accordance with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) guidance and updates.

Deaths in confirmed COVID-19 case: A death in a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms (including post mortem).

Deaths in probable COVID-19 case: A death in a person with probable COVID-19 infection as described in the COVID-19 case definition below

Deaths in possible/suspect COVID-19 case: See below scenarios for possible/suspect cases which should be reported as COVID-19 deaths.

All deaths in patients suspected of having COVID-19 i.e. patients with symptoms clinically compatible with COVID-19 illness. These suspect cases may or may not have been tested for COVID-19 prior to death. These possible COVID-19 deaths include patients with pending COVID-19 laboratory results.
All unexplained deaths/sudden deaths in residential facilities with a confirmed/suspected COVID-19 cluster/outbreak of illness unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID-19 disease (e.g. trauma)
A person can be classified as a probable or possible COVID-19 death without laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 based on the criteria for probable and possible cases of COVID-19 as outlined in the case definition.’

From The Journal ‘Factcheck’;

‘When asked how Covid-19 deaths are recorded, a spokesperson for the HSE told TheJournal.ie: “In cases where an individual who has had a positive Covid-19 test before or after death, this will be notified to the national surveillance system and reported by HPSC as a death in a confirmed Covid-19 case.”

They added that where the treating doctor has “a strong clinical suspicion” the patient had Covid-19 “due to the circumstances” and “the nature of the illness” but where the person has tested negative for the virus, or not been tested at all, these deaths will be notified to the national surveillance system and reported by the HPSC as a death in a “probable/possible Covid-19 case”.

If it is later confirmed that the patient in question did not have the virus, their death is removed from the official figures.‘

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/%3famp=1

I'm a little confused now, that's like a Q&A explanation. (i.e. a layman's term)
Going by that and assuming that's the exact definition and will not change, the ~250k people infected so far will over time, when they die from various other causes, will be counted as a Covid death. That doesn't make sense.
Also vaccinated people who are infected and have no symptoms etc... if they test positive within their lifetime, and then die 50 years later from natural causes would, under that definition be classed as a covid death.

Something tell's me that HSPC link is over simplifying it.

Stormyteacup · 19-04-2021 7:46am

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm a little confused now, that's like a Q&A explanation. (i.e. a layman's term)
Going by that and assuming that's the exact definition and will not change, the ~250k people infected so far will over time, when they die from various other causes, will be counted as a Covid death. That doesn't make sense.
Also vaccinated people who are infected and have no symptoms etc... if they test positive within their lifetime, and then die 50 years later from natural causes would, under that definition be classed as a covid death.

Something tell's me that HSPC link is over simplifying it.

It’s certainly confusing. However the fact that they quote WHO guidelines when explaining how a probable or possible death is to be recorded weakens the idea of oversimplification.

A full period of recovery from Covid precludes a death from being recorded as a Covid death.

It seems that Ireland decided on a method of recording Covid deaths from the outset, and when WHO guidelines were issued last April we implemented some of them - as we began including probable/possible cases - but understandably perhaps, from a scientific or data-collection point of view, we continued the method of initial reporting of recording deaths with a confirmed positive lab result as a basic.

This document also sheds some light on coroners part in reporting deaths;

https://hse.drsteevenslibrary.ie/ld.php?content_id=32848220

political analyst · 20-04-2021 12:38am

NPHET's failure to consider the context of Covid death statistics (i.e. terminal illness, obesity etc) means that the most draconian of restrictions (limit on travel in the country, ban on click-and-collect) recommended by NPHET are not necessary because the recommendation for people who have underlying health problems that they take especially strong precautions (i.e. cocooning or at least wearing surgical masks and also using visors to prevent viral particles from getting into the eyes) would have been enough to protect those people.

Del Griffith · 20-04-2021 6:16am

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

They do. It's why deaths are declassified.

Quietly, months later, after NPHET and RTE have used the original 'suspicious' number in all headlines to full effect.

20-04-2021 8:02am

Del Griffith wrote: »

Quietly, months later, after NPHET and RTE have used the original 'suspicious' number in all headlines to full effect.

odyssey06 · 20-04-2021 7:58pm

political analyst wrote: »

NPHET's failure to consider the context of Covid death statistics (i.e. terminal illness, obesity etc) means that the most draconian of restrictions (limit on travel in the country, ban on click-and-collect) recommended by NPHET are not necessary because the recommendation for people who have underlying health problems that they take especially strong precautions (i.e. cocooning or at least wearing surgical masks and also using visors to prevent viral particles from getting into the eyes) would have been enough to protect those people.

You're failing to consider the context of our ICU numbers and hospital capacity.
And the number of people considered 'vulnerable', and the number of people they live with... and their essential access to services.
Deaths are really secondary to hospital capacity.
Nothing would have changed in NPHET's advice based on how deaths were classified.

Also, there's a huge gap between 'draconian restrictions' and 'cocooning' in terms of levels through which you can drive a bus.

drunkmonkey · 20-04-2021 9:08pm

draconian
adjective
(of laws or their application) excessively harsh and severe.
"the Nazis destroyed the independence of the press by a series of draconian laws"

In fairness the laws are draconian, the only bus you'll fit between them and cocooning is a hot wheels one.

Everything is stifled, the press, basic human interaction, religion, you name it the party has taken control of it based on ill reporting of the relevant facts.

Iguarantee · 20-04-2021 9:13pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

...Some 2020 deaths are going to be correctly attributed to Covid - but if, at the same time, there is a considerable decrease in deaths from cancer compared to 2019, that would show that cancer deaths have been attributed to Covid...

Would cancer deaths only be attributed to Covid if the total deaths was the same or higher?

Valhallapt · 20-04-2021 9:31pm

Iguarantee wrote: »

Would cancer deaths only be attributed to Covid if the total deaths was the same or higher?

It comes down the the doctor writing the cause of death. The cso measure “excess mortality” which is the number of people who have died above a typical year.

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementmeasuringmortalityusingpublicdatasourcesoct2019-sep2020/

So we can clearly see covid causes a huge spike in excess mortality. However we are also seeing fewer deaths from other causes.

It’s the gap between NEPHET figures and the cso which is hard to be accurate on. The cso figures do suggest that NEPHET figures have overstated covid deaths.

I am not down playing the deadly nature of covid, but there are question marks over NEPHET numbers which should be challenged. The coroner is correct to question it.

MadYaker · 20-04-2021 9:39pm

The surges in COVID caused other types of healthcare to be ignored. I’d guess cancer deaths next year will be higher due to late or missed diagnoses. These deaths are not directly attributable to COVID but are sort of caused by it.

When will the CSO release figures for 2020?

drunkmonkey · 20-04-2021 9:41pm

Ok prime time is about to answer the question, how many people would be still alive if the pandemic didn't happen.

This should be good as we didn't have any excess deaths in 2020. Let's see what RTE says, place your bets...

Valhallapt · 20-04-2021 9:56pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ok prime time is about to answer the question, how many people would be still alive if the pandemic didn't happen.

This should be good as we didn't have any excess deaths in 2020. Let's see what RTE says, place your bets...

So prime time study attributes 3,200 deaths due to covid disease. NEPHET attributed 4,800 deaths to covid.

drunkmonkey · 20-04-2021 10:49pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

So prime time study attributes 3,200 deaths due to covid disease. NEPHET attributed 4,800 deaths to covid.

and if you listen to Michael levitt we're down on deaths. Nothing more than a mild flu season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_nNIoxIHnU

Which expert can you believe.

Someone is running a numbers game on us, the question is who?

Valhallapt · 20-04-2021 10:59pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

and if you listen to Michael levitt we're down on deaths. Nothing more than a mild flu season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_nNIoxIHnU

Which expert can you believe.

Someone is running a numbers game on us, the question is who?

Well there are plenty of crack pot covid deniers out there.

I don’t think cso or NEPHET are deliberately misleading anyone. But we need more transparency from NEPHET

drunkmonkey · 20-04-2021 11:24pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

I don’t think cso or NEPHET are deliberately misleading anyone. But we need more transparency from NEPHET

I don't think the cso have published last year's data yet but when it comes to NPHET they shouldn't be allowed present anything to the media. Their Covid daily deaths have to be wrong or we have a gigantic problem, they're constantly calling out Covid deaths in the fully vaccinated, well I don't know if they are maybe they didn't get vaccinated hence they died of Covid, numbers aren't tallying with other countries.

suicide_circus · 21-04-2021 8:11am

So is it fair to say that the virus has caused far fewer deaths in Ireland than has been reported?

BrianD3 · 21-04-2021 9:59am

suicide_circus wrote: »

So is it fair to say that the virus has caused far fewer deaths in Ireland than has been reported?

3200 vs 4800+, yes I would say that is fair. Also, Covid deaths from many weeks ago keep being added to the 4800 so the gap may well increase.

It is absurd that we have to rely on figures sourced from a private sector funeral notice website for a timely estimate of excess deaths. Will we learn from this and change how deaths are registered, I doubt it.

In general, the collection and management of public interest data and communication of information related to same is a problem in this country. At least with the deaths we have rip.ie and will (eventually) have CSO stats. Will we ever know how many people were admitted to hospital/ICU "because of" Covid, unlikely.

Remember near the start of the pandemic the authorities were issuing figures for the number of patients who had been admitted to ICU. Many people , including journalists interpreted this as being the number of people currently in ICU. IIRC NPHET was slow to correct this. They employ PR and media people so should have been aware of it. This was either due to poor communication or else manipulation (trying to paint a worse picture by giving cumulative figures)

drunkmonkey · 21-04-2021 12:41pm

suicide_circus wrote: »

So is it fair to say that the virus has caused far fewer deaths in Ireland than has been reported?

If you go from January to January yes, it's not how NPHET or Prime time presented the figures though. I really felt that it was to undermine the story related to this thread, also bad press about coroners yesterday, more fact check cancel culture at play.
We don't seem to have excess deaths on the January to January especially when you go look at the figures for the last bad flu season.

Charles Babbage · 21-04-2021 2:22pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yes about time this point was raised. The daily death figures are not close to accurate. The difference is died FROM covid vs died WITH covid. I know personally two such cases, one was a 45 year old relative who had terminal cancer, he was given weeks to live and must have got covid in the hospital or when he came home to die from a visitor, covid did not kill him cancer did. Another case is an elderly lady who got covid and seemed to make a good recovery, but had a fall after and died in hospital a few days later. Covid didn’t kill her the fall did.

However, at a given time less than 1% of people have Covid, so if more than 1% of dead people have Covid then it is likely contributing to their demise.

MadYaker · 21-04-2021 9:07pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If you go from January to January yes, it's not how NPHET or Prime time presented the figures though. I really felt that it was to undermine the story related to this thread, also bad press about coroners yesterday, more fact check cancel culture at play.
We don't seem to have excess deaths on the January to January especially when you go look at the figures for the last bad flu season.

Has the CSO released the figures yet for 2020? I’m curious where you’re getting the numbers from.

DessieJames · 21-04-2021 9:32pm

NPHET should be held accountable for the lies and constant scaremongering, absolute and utter scum of the earth along with the dispicable government, they've decimated this country with the longest lockdown in Europe, inhumane and draconioan.

astrofool · 21-04-2021 9:57pm

MadYaker wrote: »

Has the CSO released the figures yet for 2020? I’m curious where you’re getting the numbers from.

Only up till Q2, next set will be Q3/Q4 so will exclude a lot of deaths that happened in Jan/Feb after the Christmas surge (expect the usual to say it was a bad flu year despite the constant lockdowns keeping viruses at bay).

drunkmonkey · 21-04-2021 11:02pm

astrofool wrote: »

Only up till Q2, next set will be Q3/Q4 so will exclude a lot of deaths that happened in Jan/Feb after the Christmas surge (expect the usual to say it was a bad flu year despite the constant lockdowns keeping viruses at bay).

What viruses did they keep at bay, the flu disappeared but your run of the mill coronaviruses never went away and are still prevelant as ever, I've a 3yr old not allowed into creche as she's a mild head cold, creche said she needed to go for a Covid test and could come back in 14 days, I've given her two antigen testes and both negative, they're not as intrusive as the HSE tests I wouldn't put her through it, when are we going to get back to where every little cough or sniffle isn't suspected Covid, it's gone bonkers. Viruses are still about, masks, distancing, constant handwashing, lockdowns are doing nothing.

karlitob · 21-04-2021 11:11pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

Strange to just have a fall after being in hospital for a serious infection.

How do you know they were even included in the covid death figures?

At the end of the day, died with v from covid is a red herring to the impact covid is having on hospitals and infection control etc

Falls are multi factorial is cause.

Any infection can be a risk factor for a fall.

Falls don’t kill people - the landing does. Hip fracture or acquired brain injury. While the ABI is more straight forward in its causation of death, a hip fracture less so. We don’t know whether the fracture leads to death or whether deterioration was happening and the fractured hastened it.

So you know 30% of people who suffer a hip fracture are dead in a year and 40% who get on w in hospital are dead in 4 months.

So death is often cardiorespiratory arrest secondary to pnuneonia secondary to a hip fracture secondary to a fall where risk factors include recent infection, age, lower limb weakness and macular degeneration.

Once you don’t die of a single disease in a healthy person (infection in a young 30 year old) or swim thing traumatic (car accident) or something congenital (cystic fibrosis) then the cause of death really is hard to determine. The actual cause is clear but the contribution of risk factors is hard. You die from MS but you really die from the consequences of MS.

karlitob · 21-04-2021 11:16pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What viruses did they keep at bay, the flu disappeared but your run of the mill coronaviruses never went away and are still prevelant as ever, I've a 3yr old not allowed into creche as she's a mild head cold, creche said she needed to go for a Covid test and could come back in 14 days, I've given her two antigen testes and both negative, they're not as intrusive as the HSE tests I wouldn't put her through it, when are we going to get back to where every little cough or sniffle isn't suspected Covid, it's gone bonkers. Viruses are still about, masks, distancing, constant handwashing, lockdowns are doing nothing.

Your GP would’ve advised whether a test is required or not. Show up to crèche with your daughter if the GP says it’s not required.

And clearly ‘viruses are still about’ but no one suggested that infection prevention and control would wipe out this virus. Ever.

The rate of the winter stain of flu is much much much lower this year than it ever has been. Obviously infection prevention and control procedures have had an effect on flu. IPC is for all pathogens not just coronaviruses.

karlitob · 21-04-2021 11:19pm

DessieJames wrote: »

NPHET should be held accountable for the lies and constant scaremongering, absolute and utter scum of the earth along with the dispicable government, they've decimated this country with the longest lockdown in Europe, inhumane and draconioan.

How do you suggest that these accusations are proved?

What actions do you suggest to hold them accountable?

Can NPHET be blamed for all the ‘decimation’ all countries or are they in cahoots with other countries elite?

astrofool · 21-04-2021 11:22pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What viruses did they keep at bay, the flu disappeared but your run of the mill coronaviruses never went away and are still prevelant as ever, I've a 3yr old not allowed into creche as she's a mild head cold, creche said she needed to go for a Covid test and could come back in 14 days, I've given her two antigen testes and both negative, they're not as intrusive as the HSE tests I wouldn't put her through it, when are we going to get back to where every little cough or sniffle isn't suspected Covid, it's gone bonkers. Viruses are still about, masks, distancing, constant handwashing, lockdowns are doing nothing.

What infectious viruses did social distancing keep away for the last year? Dude, go and look it up, there is a multitude, then go look up the death rate of those, call it a research project.

There is a lot of idiots out there calling 2020 a bad flu year not realising that the death rate was kept down by lockdowns, we saw over Christmas the case count shot up, then a few weeks later the death rate shot up, there is no "correct" level of opening that would lead to "bad flu" year (and again, anyone claiming as such can pretty much have their opinion discounted).

The CSO will release it's numbers and we can draw some conclusions from there, unfortunately it will be the Q1/Q2 2021 numbers that will inform the full picture (but again some anti lockdown people will try and use the 2020 Q3/Q4 numbers to incorrectly justify their positions).

Great to see countries start opening up safely as vaccinations take effect.

karlitob · 21-04-2021 11:27pm

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It’s certainly confusing. However the fact that they quote WHO guidelines when explaining how a probable or possible death is to be recorded weakens the idea of oversimplification.

A full period of recovery from Covid precludes a death from being recorded as a Covid death.

It seems that Ireland decided on a method of recording Covid deaths from the outset, and when WHO guidelines were issued last April we implemented some of them - as we began including probable/possible cases - but understandably perhaps, from a scientific or data-collection point of view, we continued the method of initial reporting of recording deaths with a confirmed positive lab result as a basic.

This document also sheds some light on coroners part in reporting deaths;

https://hse.drsteevenslibrary.ie/ld.php?content_id=32848220

Be interested to know how many coronial pms are done and local pms when all this is done.

Guy:Incognito · 21-04-2021 11:35pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

when are we going to get back to where every little cough or sniffle isn't suspected Covid,.

When are people going to stop going to work or sending their kids to school when they are sick and thus spreading various illnesses around to everyone else?

drunkmonkey wrote: »

. Viruses are still about, masks, distancing, constant handwashing, lockdowns are doing nothing.

Really? Complaining about people washing their hands too much? ffs. No wonder everything is full of germs the whole time.

Masks stop you spitting bits of saliva or anything else in your mouth on other people. That stops the transfer of germs to people.

Del Griffith · 22-04-2021 6:25am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

When are people going to stop going to work or sending their kids to school when they are sick and thus spreading various illnesses around to everyone else?

Really? Complaining about people washing their hands too much? ffs. No wonder everything is full of germs the whole time.

Masks stop you spitting bits of saliva or anything else in your mouth on other people. That stops the transfer of germs to people.

We're now a nation of germaphobes..

DessieJames · 22-04-2021 3:42pm

karlitob wrote: »

How do you suggest that these accusations are proved?

What actions do you suggest to hold them accountable?

Can NPHET be blamed for all the ‘decimation’ all countries or are they in cahoots with other countries elite?

Right now you cant,but the truth about all of this will eventually comeout, it always does, half the deaths marked down as covid just to frightgen the public to death were elderly people who were dying anyway.

Last year i along with many others were called "conspiracy theorists" for suggesting that there would be a digital vaccine passport in 2021, NPHET were in favour of this, and guess what it's happening.

i could do and on and on

PintOfView · 22-04-2021 8:01pm

DessieJames wrote: »

Right now you cant,but the truth about all of this will eventually comeout, it always does, half the deaths marked down as covid just to frightgen the public to death were elderly people who were dying anyway.

Last year i along with many others were called "conspiracy theorists" for suggesting that there would be a digital vaccine passport in 2021, NPHET were in favour of this, and guess what it's happening.

i could do and on and on

The fact that you are talking about digital vaccine passports makes me think you are looking at conspiracy web sites?
What do you see as the issues with vaccine certs, paper or digital?

POI for the Coroners Society of Ireland, Nphet’s figures for deaths may be innacurate

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