Random EV thoughts.....

unkel · 13-04-2021 04:21PM

Yep agree with your sentiments there. It's a pity that the good value base model ID.3 and ID.4 cars are so poorly specced though. But I guess that's the commercial reality (as has always been the case with cars sold in Europe). Someone who hasn't had a half decent level 2 autonomous driving system before won't care much if they didn't get it in their first EV. And I'd say VW will clean up here and all over Europe with these cars, the most significant EVs in terms of getting conventional car owners into an EV for the first time

eagerv · 13-04-2021 05:24PM

unkel wrote: »

Yep agree with your sentiments there. It's a pity that the good value base model ID.3 and ID.4 cars are so poorly specced though. But I guess that's the commercial reality (as has always been the case with cars sold in Europe). Someone who hasn't had a half decent level 2 autonomous driving system before won't care much if they didn't get it in their first EV. And I'd say VW will clean up here and all over Europe with these cars, the most significant EVs in terms of getting conventional car owners into an EV for the first time

Disagree there somewhat. It depends on your priorities. My Base ID.3 has more or less everything I need. Good auto LED lights, the same Info screen as the higher models which does all I want very well now, plenty of power and nice driving dynamics. Plus very refined and solid. Plus the full safety suite and ACC etc. Once you are used to the systems it is all very easy. For example to change to sport mode you just press the mode button twice. Simple, no need to go into menus as most of the testers seem to. Heating controls are also very simple.
The only thing that should be standard is a reversing camera, though there are sensors all around. With the large back windows and good all around visibility I now don't really miss it.
For my type of non motorway driving I find the efficiency not far off our Ioniq, especially now that the temperature doesn't require battery heating.
Of course VW are far from perfect, the software is still pretty poor..

unkel · 13-04-2021 05:45PM

You don't miss the level 2 self driving stuff? The one in your Ioniq was basic but pretty decent. I take it you don't have any of this now?

- lane keeping
- auto emergency braking
- active cruise control

Was all standard on the base €25k Ioniq 5 years ago...

eagerv · 13-04-2021 06:13PM

unkel wrote: »

You don't miss the level 2 self driving stuff? The one in your Ioniq was basic but pretty decent. I take it you don't have any of this now?

- lane keeping
- auto emergency braking
- active cruise control

Was all standard on the base €25k Ioniq 5 years ago...

Yes have all that on my base ID.3, plus a very refined smart regen which I love. Love our Ioniq, but the ID.3 is so much simpler especially when starting up. No button pressing or bings and bongs..:)

the_amazing_raisin · 13-04-2021 09:25PM

unkel wrote: »

Yep agree with your sentiments there. It's a pity that the good value base model ID.3 and ID.4 cars are so poorly specced though. But I guess that's the commercial reality (as has always been the case with cars sold in Europe). Someone who hasn't had a half decent level 2 autonomous driving system before won't care much if they didn't get it in their first EV. And I'd say VW will clean up here and all over Europe with these cars, the most significant EVs in terms of getting conventional car owners into an EV for the first time

I think that's VW in general now, if you look at the latest generation Golf and Tiguan they've been cut to the bone relative to their predecessors

VW management has been under pressure for years to cut costs. VW sells similar numbers of cars to Toyota but make less money, shareholders aren't terribly pleased about this

VW has a slightly strange management structure in that the unions are represented on the board via the works council. So they can't do the usual method of cutting costs which is to fire a bunch of employees and cut benefits

This means the only way forward for VW is to make more profit on every car, so they need to make them cheaper

slave1 · 14-04-2021 02:00PM

the_amazing_raisin wrote: »

..

This means the only way forward for VW is to make more profit on every car, so they need to make them cheaper...

..or gain more market share and sell more cars

cannco253 · 14-04-2021 02:52PM

Inside Volkswagen’s battery logistics

https://www.automotivelogistics.media/packaging/inside-volkswagens-battery-logistics/41756.article

the_amazing_raisin · 14-04-2021 02:58PM

slave1 wrote: »

..or gain more market share and sell more cars

Well they're already one of the biggest car manufacturers (or the biggest, can't remember), so realistically there's only so much they can grow unless they manage to completely kill the opposition

I think their electrification strategy feeds into this, once they hit price parity with ICE cars, then VW will be making as much profit on all their vehicles

As battery costs get lower from that point, then VW make more money per car sold. They could lower their prices, but I'd say they'll happily keep the prices where they if they can get away with it

Jizique · 14-04-2021 04:37PM

the_amazing_raisin wrote: »

Well they're already one of the biggest car manufacturers (or the biggest, can't remember), so realistically there's only so much they can grow unless they manage to completely kill the opposition

I think their electrification strategy feeds into this, once they hit price parity with ICE cars, then VW will be making as much profit on all their vehicles

As battery costs get lower from that point, then VW make more money per car sold. They could lower their prices, but I'd say they'll happily keep the prices where they if they can get away with it

Why will battery costs keep getting lower? To my mind, the price will be largely based on the underlying raw materials, so given demand trends, I fail to see why the raw mats will fall in price

liamog · 14-04-2021 04:46PM

Jizique wrote: »

Why will battery costs keep getting lower? To my mind, the price will be largely based on the underlying raw materials, so given demand trends, I fail to see why the raw mats will fall in price

There is huge investment in battery technology, originally driven by the smartphone industry and now by automotive. This is generally driven by the goals of increasing energy density kWh/kg and storage per dollar kWh/$.

There has been a huge drive to reduce the amount of cobalt in batteries, a few years ago NMC 622 was a common chemistry this is approximately a 6:2:2 ratio of Nickel Manganese Cobalt. Cobalt is more than double the price of Nickel, therefore if you reduce the cobalt ratio you can reduce the price.

A good example is the new made in China Tesla vehicles, instead of using an NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxides) chemistry they use LiFEPO4 which contains zero cobalt, they are lower energy density so require more weight, but the raw materials for the batteries are substantially cheaper.

the_amazing_raisin · 14-04-2021 07:17PM

liamog wrote: »

There is huge investment in battery technology, originally driven by the smartphone industry and now by automotive. This is generally driven by the goals of increasing energy density kWh/kg and storage per dollar kWh/$.

There has been a huge drive to reduce the amount of cobalt in batteries, a few years ago NMC 622 was a common chemistry this is approximately a 6:2:2 ratio of Nickel Manganese Cobalt. Cobalt is more than double the price of Nickel, therefore if you reduce the cobalt ratio you can reduce the price.

A good example is the new made in China Tesla vehicles, instead of using an NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxides) chemistry they use LiFEPO4 which contains zero cobalt, they are lower energy density so require more weight, but the raw materials for the batteries are substantially cheaper.

Couldn't have said it better myself

I think the energy density argument is often overlooked because it'll mean you can store the same energy in a smaller pack, resulting in big savings on material costs

unkel · 14-04-2021 07:22PM

the_amazing_raisin wrote: »

I think the energy density argument is often overlooked because it'll mean you can store the same energy in a smaller pack, resulting in big savings on material costs

Energy density really isn't that important. I'd much rather a car that weighs 100kg more and uses super safe batteries that can't combust and last twice as long, while the car is €1000 cheaper to buy too and no child / slave labour in Africa was involved in making it!

Jizique · 14-04-2021 07:23PM

liamog wrote: »

There is huge investment in battery technology, originally driven by the smartphone industry and now by automotive. This is generally driven by the goals of increasing energy density kWh/kg and storage per dollar kWh/$.

There has been a huge drive to reduce the amount of cobalt in batteries, a few years ago NMC 622 was a common chemistry this is approximately a 6:2:2 ratio of Nickel Manganese Cobalt. Cobalt is more than double the price of Nickel, therefore if you reduce the cobalt ratio you can reduce the price.

A good example is the new made in China Tesla vehicles, instead of using an NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxides) chemistry they use LiFEPO4 which contains zero cobalt, they are lower energy density so require more weight, but the raw materials for the batteries are substantially cheaper.

That’s for a ****tier car, not like for like.
If this amazing breakthrough is just around the corner, like Musk’s FSD which has been coming next quarter since 2016, why would anyone buy an EV today.
I know there some money being thrown at batteries but I just don’t see the scope for further big cost savings on a like-for-like basis - which is presumably why VW are hyping up solid state (they have an investment in Quantumscape).
But even they are not spending much on R&D, I think it is $100m a quarter.

unkel · 14-04-2021 08:06PM

Jizique wrote: »

If this amazing breakthrough is just around the corner, like Musk’s FSD which has been coming next quarter since 2016, why would anyone buy an EV today.

What are you talking about? LiFePo4 has been around for many, many years and are about the cheapest form of lithium batteries. Also very reliable, non-flammable and have a super long life. I wish they were in my car, like they are in all the Teslas made in China. I built my own home power wall with LiFePo4 cells last year

Jizique · 14-04-2021 08:19PM

unkel wrote: »

What are you talking about? LiFePo4 has been around for many, many years and are about the cheapest form of lithium batteries. Also very reliable, non-flammable and have a super long life. I wish they were in my car, like they are in all the Teslas made in China. I built my own home power wall with LiFePo4 cells last year

LFP is not as good a product, it is cheaper, more basic, shorter range - there is a reason the industry didn’t start using it initially.

unkel · 14-04-2021 08:39PM

It's a much better product. Because of all the arguments I stated above. The only drawback is that it is heavier. Which is a non-issue. What difference does it make if the car is 2200 or 2300kg? It will cost 1.3c / km instead of 1.2c / km? Still many times cheaper than petrol or diesel and of course zero emissions. Still much faster, in fact the difference won't even be perceptible during fast acceleration

liamog · 14-04-2021 08:43PM

Jizique wrote: »

That’s for a ****tier car, not like for like.
If this amazing breakthrough is just around the corner

Many people seem to miss this, battery technology is not one big break through away from reaching a plateau. It's progressing very similar to silicone semi-conductors. The goal is a constant progression in the storage density whilst reducing the cost per kWh. There are many facets to how this is achieved, whether it's tweaks to the cathode, anode or electrolyte. Or some of the new approaches using cell to pack technology. Each improvement adds up.

You can either improve something by looking for a 10% improvement, or improve lots of things by 0.5%/1%. The New Zealand All Blacks are famous for many small improvements approach, a technique that has been integrated into Dublin GAA.

Jizique · 14-04-2021 09:23PM

liamog wrote: »

Many people seem to miss this, battery technology is not one big break through away from reaching a plateau. It's progressing very similar to silicone semi-conductors. The goal is a constant progression in the storage density whilst reducing the cost per kWh. There are many facets to how this is achieved, whether it's tweaks to the cathode, anode or electrolyte. Or some of the new approaches using cell to pack technology. Each improvement adds up.

You can either improve something by looking for a 10% improvement, or improve lots of things by 0.5%/1%. The New Zealand All Blacks are famous for many small improvements approach, a technique that has been integrated into Dublin GAA.

Perhaps, but the move to solid state, if what quantumscape say works, is not small or incremental and all cars will use solid state thereafter.
Makes one wonder about all the money being poured into the current technologies, VW with their 240GW factories.

unkel · 14-04-2021 09:42PM

Jizique wrote: »

the move to solid state, if what quantumscape say works, is not small or incremental and all cars will use solid state thereafter.

Yeah and once we have nuclear fusion we don't really need any coal / gas / oil or even wind anymore. Another one we've been hearing for the last 50 years. Ain't around the corner either.

liamog · 14-04-2021 10:06PM

Jizique wrote: »

Perhaps, but the move to solid state, if what quantumscape say works, is not small or incremental and all cars will use solid state thereafter.
Makes one wonder about all the money being poured into the current technologies, VW with their 240GW factories.

We're already seeing incremental improvements from the research into solid state. https://www.theengineer.co.uk/semi-solid-electrolyte-lithium-sulphur-batteries/
The saying shoot for the moon, if you miss you will still hit the stars

Jizique · 14-04-2021 10:16PM

liamog wrote: »

We're already seeing incremental improvements from the research into solid state. https://www.theengineer.co.uk/semi-solid-electrolyte-lithium-sulphur-batteries/
The saying shoot for the moon, if you miss you will still hit the stars

That was 13 months ago - we would need to be a bit further along if they are to be in passenger cars by 2025

McGiver · 14-04-2021 10:43PM

liamog wrote:

There has been a huge drive to reduce the amount of cobalt in batteries, a few years ago NMC 622 was a common chemistry this is approximately a 6:2:2 ratio of Nickel Manganese Cobalt. Cobalt is more than double the price of Nickel, therefore if you reduce the cobalt ratio you can reduce the price.

NMCA is the current gold standard for performance automotive, EVs.
Btw some older cars such as the BMW i3 had NMC111, so NMC811 which is common now was an 3.3 fold reduction in cobalt content...

liamog wrote:

A good example is the new made in China Tesla vehicles, instead of using an NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxides) chemistry they use LiFEPO4 which contains zero cobalt, they are lower energy density so require more weight, but the raw materials for the batteries are substantially cheaper.

LiFePO4 is bulkier, cheaper, safer, lasts forever, but is sluggish, the discharge curve is suboptimal, and doesn't like cold (more then NMC-A). It's suitable for lower performance demands.
Primary targets are Asian cheaper EVs, and especially trucks, buses and cargo vehicles.

McGiver · 14-04-2021 10:46PM

liamog wrote:

We're already seeing incremental improvements from the research into solid state.

Li-S is FAR away... Battery storage OK but automotive not really.

liamog · 14-04-2021 10:51PM

McGiver wrote: »

LiFePO4 is bulkier, cheaper, safer, lasts forever, but is sluggish, the discharge curve is suboptimal, and doesn't like cold (more then NMC-A). It's suitable for lower performance demands.

Suitable enough for a family sedan like the Tesla Model 3.
Not every vehicle needs to be sports car than can do 0-100km/h in 5s.

liamog · 14-04-2021 10:54PM

McGiver wrote: »

Li-S is FAR away... Battery storage OK but automotive not really.

Jizique wrote: »

That was 13 months ago - we would need to be a bit further along if they are to be in passenger cars by 2025

Should I point you both again to the point I made, big research turns into incremental improvements over time. Progress is not one big bang, it's lots of little bangs that add up.

The question should be, why do you think 2021 is the year that batteries stop getting cheaper, and energy storage stops increasing in density? I've been asking this question of posters since 2018. So far prices keep going down and storage going up.

McGiver · 15-04-2021 07:50AM

McGiver wrote:

NMCA is the current gold standard for performance automotive, EVs. Btw some older cars such as the BMW i3 had NMC111, so NMC811 which is common now was an 8 fold reduction in cobalt content...

Jaysus bad maths there - that's 3.3 fold reduction of cobalt content... It's NMC811 (10% cobalt) vs NMC111 (33% cobalt)

McGiver · 15-04-2021 08:04AM

liamog wrote: »

Should I point you both again to the point I made, big research turns into incremental improvements over time. Progress is not one big bang, it's lots of little bangs that add up.

The Li-S example proves the exact opposite.

Li-S is not an easy incremental improvement to the current tech but a change of paradigm, completely different chemistry and not only that also different physical properties (solid state).

All the changes in Li-ion over the last say 20 years were incremental improvements to the very same cell concept and based around C-NC
-NMC cathode. The only exception to this is the LiFePo4 cathode.

AndyBoBandy · 15-04-2021 09:46AM

I still believe the future (or part of the future) will be wireless charging (as you are driving) along motorway routes... meaning cars will only need small sub 50kWh batteries for when they leave the motorway networks..

When driving on the motorway, most or all of the power consumed will come from the road charging, and any excess goes into the battery, so when you leave the motorway, you leave with a full battery.

Someone will be able to do it cost effectively.. mind you it will be the standard in other countries for at least 20-30 years before anyone attempts it in Ireland.

15-04-2021 09:59AM

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

I still believe the future (or part of the future) will be wireless charging (as you are driving) along motorway routes... meaning cars will only need small sub 50kWh batteries for when they leave the motorway networks..

When driving on the motorway, most or all of the power consumed will come from the road charging, and any excess goes into the battery, so when you leave the motorway, you leave with a full battery.

Someone will be able to do it cost effectively.. mind you it will be the standard in other countries for at least 20-30 years before anyone attempts it in Ireland.

The currents required would be too great for any installation to be cost effective.
I would be surprised if it progresses any further than these.
de9a95b0730c13b44e2d531c5815e800--semi-trucks-electric-vehicle.jpg

de9a95b0730c13b44e2d531c5815e800--semi-trucks-electric-vehicle.jpg

Overhead cables to provide a boost when climbing hills, on ramps etc

Oafley Jones · 15-04-2021 10:00AM

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

I still believe the future (or part of the future) will be wireless charging (as you are driving) along motorway routes... meaning cars will only need small sub 50kWh batteries for when they leave the motorway networks..

When driving on the motorway, most or all of the power consumed will come from the road charging, and any excess goes into the battery, so when you leave the motorway, you leave with a full battery.

Someone will be able to do it cost effectively.. mind you it will be the standard in other countries for at least 20-30 years before anyone attempts it in Ireland.

Wireless charging will have to have massive gains in efficiency before that would be practical. Mobile phones are bad enough. Even if you were to get up to high 90% efficiency imagine how much wasted energy there would be with an entirely electric fleet.

Random EV thoughts.....

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