2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends if one believes the Housing Minister is a trustworthy source.

Back in July 2020, the Housing Minister said:

“The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly”.

Timelines seem to match up IMO

Link to article here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/

I remember when he said that and thinking to myself at the time that a powerful entity goes and does their best to make people sell their property, so that they can go and buy the whole lot. Theres a conflict of interest there.

JimmyVik wrote:

I remember when he said that and thinking to myself at the time that a powerful entity goes and does their best to make people sell their property, so that they can go and buy the whole lot. Theres a conflict of interest there.

Your confusing power with intelligence

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think they allow Chinese investment.

Australia and Singapore are exempt because of free trade deals.

Reins wrote: »

Australia and Singapore are exempt because of free trade deals.

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

I'd a quick look at that dataset and it would seem to indicate there is an increase alright, 2019 anyway, 2020 is funny year with covid.
I'm not fully sure of the definitions, but I believe non-occupier to be private landlord and non-household to be state, housing bodies or REIT's.
Chart is volume of sales for all counties.


Source: Goto https://data.cso.ie/ and seach Residential Dwelling Property Transactions, then HMP02, you can chart the data from there

RichardAnd wrote: »

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

It's not caused by state purchases in NZ. The three main reasons are very low supply vs high demand, made far, far worse by COVID, as in most countries.

The second reason is historically low interest rates making property investment and speculation attractive and the third is that NZ doesn't have CGT, making property investing even more highly attractive for a lot of people. The second, third property has become almost a national sport for a large number of ordinary people.

The governmant there has very recently changed the law defining the role of the reserve bank, making it now part of their remit to take the housing market into consideration when setting rates. Serves them right for thumbing their noses at the government saying it's their problem and fault for not taking appropriate measures, when politely asked by the government to consider the housing market.

The most recent powerful measure taken in the past couple of weeks was to disallow the claiming of mortgage interest as a cost against rental income interms of tax.

The thing the government haven't done to address the problem I believe they should have, is to reform their planning system, which is a very large cost buden and impediment to developers and individuals wishing to buy land and to build on it.

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

cnocbui wrote: »

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

Have you ever talked to most Irish people? :pac:

I think its universally agreed upon that planning system in Ireland moves at a glacial pace

house prices up another 3% in feb according to cso..

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/low-paid-workers-ireland-set-23914954

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm sure it crossed their minds that a move to the living wage would pore petrol on the flames of rising rent prices therefore the wage rises would be a further boost to the profits of REITs and really do nothing for low paid workers

Further proof that government are a major part of the problem with more welfare for the wealthy programs

If they wanted to help the low paid, (or any worker or employer) sorting the housing shortage would be where you would start

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

The problem is that increasing the minimum wage will increase the supply of money available in the economy. Unless the available supply of goods expands to match, this means that prices will rise as there will be more money available to buy the same amount of things. This may not be too bad when it comes to things like food, but with rent, it almost certainly will be. Simply put, an extra 100 euro a week is of little use if everyone else in your price range receives the same increase at the same time.

Hubertj wrote:

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing?.

Not what I said

If you want to help low paid workers, you start with housing

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

That is not true and too simple of a view. You can look at US where they increased min wage in 2010. They have been chasing after text book inflation ever since.

Edit: Solving housing crises created by design has nothing to do with rising min wage.

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

The point I am making is that a living wage is only 1 part of a solution. Fixing housing doesn’t mean that low paid workers don’t need a pay rise. Building more houses on its own doesn’t fix the issues with housing either..

combat14 wrote: »

and ff/fg have been in power the last 10 years or so .. they need to start to do the job ........ and stop adding fuel to the fire by driving up costs here further ...

As the Irish Examiner so well put earlier in the week

It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread. By tolerating this scandal old, property-first Ireland assures its own destruction.

One quick look at the odds in the bookies shows us the way this is going, both 'Most Seats' and 'Next Taoiseach' markets!