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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Hubertj

Graham wrote: »

Where does the article suggest

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/majority-of-dublin-s-airbnb-style-lets-return-to-long-term-market-1.4422915

I found this article informative. I can’t see who you were asking the question of but I would suggest they are mistaken or not telling the truth.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends if one believes the Housing Minister is a trustworthy source.

Back in July 2020, the Housing Minister said:

“The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly”.

Timelines seem to match up IMO

Link to article here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/

I remember when he said that and thinking to myself at the time that a powerful entity goes and does their best to make people sell their property, so that they can go and buy the whole lot. Theres a conflict of interest there.

awec

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

How are house prices calculated...

I was just doing a bit of window shopping and have seen a few houses all in the same area, and the prices vary wildly...

Can understand square footage and bedrooms etc, but it seems interior design isn't taken into account or even how future proofed the property is...

Cosmetic stuff has little impact on the value as people will usually just change it to their own taste anyway.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

I remember when he said that and thinking to myself at the time that a powerful entity goes and does their best to make people sell their property, so that they can go and buy the whole lot. Theres a conflict of interest there.

Your confusing power with intelligence

Cyrus

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

How are house prices calculated...

I was just doing a bit of window shopping and have seen a few houses all in the same area, and the prices vary wildly...

Can understand square footage and bedrooms etc, but it seems interior design isn't taken into account or even how future proofed the property is...

Generally it’s whats did the last equivalent property in the area achieve and add a bit.

Reins

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think they allow Chinese investment.

Australia and Singapore are exempt because of free trade deals.

RichardAnd

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends if one believes the Housing Minister is a trustworthy source.

Back in July 2020, the Housing Minister said:

“The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly”.

Timelines seem to match up IMO

Link to article here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/

I would love to see a breakdown of the demographics of just who is buying property in the state. I.e., X% FTBs, Y% foreign investors, Z% state-bought. I doubt that such data is in the public domain, but it would be very interesting to see.

RichardAnd

Reins wrote: »

Australia and Singapore are exempt because of free trade deals.

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

Browney7

RichardAnd wrote: »

I would love to see a breakdown of the demographics of just who is buying property in the state. I.e., X% FTBs, Y% foreign investors, Z% state-bought. I doubt that such data is in the public domain, but it would be very interesting to see.

The CSO publish data in the HPM02 dataset which gives a breakdown of transactions by "Type of buyer" which has splits of "FTB, non occupier, non household buyer, former owner occupier" so you could infer from this whether the state or REITs have ramped up activity

cruizer101

I'd a quick look at that dataset and it would seem to indicate there is an increase alright, 2019 anyway, 2020 is funny year with covid.
I'm not fully sure of the definitions, but I believe non-occupier to be private landlord and non-household to be state, housing bodies or REIT's.
Chart is volume of sales for all counties.

Source: Goto https://data.cso.ie/ and seach Residential Dwelling Property Transactions, then HMP02, you can chart the data from there

Mad_maxx

RichardAnd wrote: »

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

New Zealands property bubble is probably worse than hours was pre 2008 at this stage ?

cnocbui

RichardAnd wrote: »

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

It's not caused by state purchases in NZ. The three main reasons are very low supply vs high demand, made far, far worse by COVID, as in most countries.

The second reason is historically low interest rates making property investment and speculation attractive and the third is that NZ doesn't have CGT, making property investing even more highly attractive for a lot of people. The second, third property has become almost a national sport for a large number of ordinary people.

The governmant there has very recently changed the law defining the role of the reserve bank, making it now part of their remit to take the housing market into consideration when setting rates. Serves them right for thumbing their noses at the government saying it's their problem and fault for not taking appropriate measures, when politely asked by the government to consider the housing market.

The most recent powerful measure taken in the past couple of weeks was to disallow the claiming of mortgage interest as a cost against rental income interms of tax.

The thing the government haven't done to address the problem I believe they should have, is to reform their planning system, which is a very large cost buden and impediment to developers and individuals wishing to buy land and to build on it.

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

L1011

RichardAnd wrote: »

Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there

The NZ Labour Party are centre-right by European standards. Social democratic and definitively not left wing.

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

Have you ever talked to most Irish people? :pac:

I think its universally agreed upon that planning system in Ireland moves at a glacial pace

Mad_maxx

L1011 wrote: »

The NZ Labour Party are centre-right by European standards. Social democratic and definitively not left wing.

not surprising , NZ is a very right wing country , extremely hard headed folk

combat14

house prices up another 3% in feb according to cso..

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/low-paid-workers-ireland-set-23914954

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

I'm sure it crossed their minds that a move to the living wage would pore petrol on the flames of rising rent prices therefore the wage rises would be a further boost to the profits of REITs and really do nothing for low paid workers

Further proof that government are a major part of the problem with more welfare for the wealthy programs

If they wanted to help the low paid, (or any worker or employer) sorting the housing shortage would be where you would start

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm sure it crossed their minds that a move to the living wage would pore petrol on the flames of rising rent prices therefore the wage rises would be a further boost to the profits of REITs and really do nothing for low paid workers

Further proof that government are a major part of the problem with more welfare for the wealthy programs

If they wanted to help the low paid, (or any worker or employer) sorting the housing shortage would be where you would start

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

Every increase in the minimum wage has been negated multiple times over by rental increases.

If you want to help low paid workers, sort out housing. Pointless giving anyone an increase if housing takes more than the increase in salary

RichardAnd

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

The problem is that increasing the minimum wage will increase the supply of money available in the economy. Unless the available supply of goods expands to match, this means that prices will rise as there will be more money available to buy the same amount of things. This may not be too bad when it comes to things like food, but with rent, it almost certainly will be. Simply put, an extra 100 euro a week is of little use if everyone else in your price range receives the same increase at the same time.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Every increase in the minimum wage has been negated multiple times over by rental increases.

If you want to help low paid workers, sort out housing. Pointless giving anyone an increase if housing takes more than the increase in salary

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing? I’d suggest you haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about but this isn’t the forum for such a ridiculous assertion.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

So low paid workers shouldnâ€™t be paid more if they have cheaper housing?.

Not what I said

If you want to help low paid workers, you start with housing

timmyntc

Hubertj wrote: »

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing? I’d suggest you haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about but this isn’t the forum for such a ridiculous assertion.

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

SmokyMo

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

That is not true and too simple of a view. You can look at US where they increased min wage in 2010. They have been chasing after text book inflation ever since.

Edit: Solving housing crises created by design has nothing to do with rising min wage.

timmyntc

SmokyMo wrote: »

That is not true and too simple of a view. You can look at US where they increased min wage in 2010. They have been chasing after text book inflation ever since.

Edit: Solving housing crises created by design has nothing to do with rising min wage.

Most of workers in the US were actually not affected by the min wage increase since almost nobody earned minimum wage at that time.

Solving housing crisis has nothing to do with minimum wage, I agree. However a rising minimum wage does equal more purchasing power to the people earning minimum wage. The better approach (for general goods & for housing) is to try and reduce the cost of living. Not only can it lead to tangible increases in purchasing power, but it makes our economy more competitive globally.

Hubertj

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

The point I am making is that a living wage is only 1 part of a solution. Fixing housing doesn’t mean that low paid workers don’t need a pay rise. Building more houses on its own doesn’t fix the issues with housing either..

combat14

Hubertj wrote: »

The point I am making is that a living wage is only 1 part of a solution. Fixing housing doesn’t mean that low paid workers don’t need a pay rise. Building more houses on its own doesn’t fix the issues with housing either..

significantly increasing the minimum wage will drive up wage demands from all other groups too....

it may on a positive note motivate some of the career unemployed to consider gainful employment

however in reality driving up the minimum wage may contribute to making the country generally less competitve on an international basis, rise inflation/ prices making ireland a far more expensive place to do business and more expensive for locals and tourists alike

the government need to focus on driving down the cost of living here - taxes and housing are two of the biggest expenses - now there is not much scope to sustainably reduce taxes at present given massive state borrowing ..

housing is really the elephant in the room ...

and ff/fg have been in power the last 10 years or so .. they need to start to do the job ........ and stop adding fuel to the fire by driving up costs here further ...

MacronvFrugals

combat14 wrote: »

and ff/fg have been in power the last 10 years or so .. they need to start to do the job ........ and stop adding fuel to the fire by driving up costs here further ...

As the Irish Examiner so well put earlier in the week

It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread. By tolerating this scandal old, property-first Ireland assures its own destruction.

One quick look at the odds in the bookies shows us the way this is going, both 'Most Seats' and 'Next Taoiseach' markets!

MacronvFrugals

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!

Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years

Sherry FtizGerald said vendors are reluctant to bring properties to the market amid Covid-19 related concerns but also crucially due to the restrictions on viewings.

“This exacerbation in the supply deficit stoked a rise in house price inflation, particularly in comparison to the more subdued levels of price growth observed in the recent past,” it said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-second-hand-properties-listed-for-sale-falls-by-70-in-10-years-1.4538593

Graham

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!

Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years

You think it's better to wait until the supply of second-hand homes increases or enough new-builds are completed to satisfy the demand?