Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings

11-04-2021 03:18PM

PintOfView wrote: »

The Swedish one is a journal article, written like any article, and much easier to read, etc.
The Irish one is a HSE document and has huge amounts of information, and is difficult to compare.
If you open the equivalent Swedish Health agency one it's a bit like more the Irish one, but a bit shorter.

Not sure what conclusion we can draw from the comparison

You say "life is pretty much normal there already"
Then why have they got restrictions in place to Sept 2021?

See here -> https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/restriktioner-och-forbud
some extracts
- No more than eight people may be present at a public gathering or public event. The police has the right to cancel or dissolve an event that has more than eight attendees.
- If a private gathering is held at an event venue, in a meeting room and at other rented premises, a maximum of eight people are allowed to attend.
- 20 people can attend a funeral
- If you organise an event in violation of the ban, you may face a fine or prison sentence of up to six months.
- Public gatherings and events may have a maximum of eight participants. The Police can cancel or disband a public gathering or event with more participants.
- No alcohol can be served in pubs or restaurants between 8pm and 11am
- Restaurants can't serve food after 8.30pm
- Venues serving food and drink which are part of a shopping centre can serve no more than one person per table.

They are restrictions, but they're not that onerous or draconian compared with other countries. The one about one person per table isn't exactly as described. In shopping centres you see people sitting across from each other as opposed to face to face.

People can still go to a restaurant, to a bar, to a café, travel across the country, no curfew, no masks (the single recommendation aside), and there is a roadmap to normal life.

But I haven't seen anything about level 0, or normal life, in the context of Ireland. There's no mention of it in that plan. In that article it describes how Sweden will lift all restrictions.

But if we were to compare Sweden with Australia then I would say domestically life is more normal in Australia insofar as cinemas, theatres and large events are all up and running.

FintanMcluskey · 11-04-2021 03:19PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209125-court-quarantine/

Imagine having to mount a court challenge to see your dying father?

The only thing this mandatory quarantine is achieving, other than keeping Karen on Facebook happy that 'de Covid foreigners' are being kept out, is diverting public attention away from the fact that the biggest issue with Covid spread is within hospitals - Jesus, we can't have the public asking questions about that.

What a shameful embarrassment this country has become.

Ah lads

What have we acquiesced to?

PTH2009 · 11-04-2021 03:22PM

Let's hope and pray today is the end of the 5km travel restrictions and we never have to darken its door again

11-04-2021 03:24PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Things are definitely not bad here, my brother lives in Ireland and he says it’s like living like a rat. I think if I was in Europe I would have necked myself by now so I’m glad I’m not.

The government here is considering opening up travel bubbles with parts of Asia until the majority of people are vaccinated, there’s been a delay in the vaccines as the AZ vaccine is not recommended for under 50s so Australia so the preferred vaccine is Pfizer so they will miss the completion by October ...luckily Pfizer has only a 3 week gap rather than 12 week so it could be worse. They are considering changes to travel and quarantine

https://www.9news.com.au/national/major-changes-to-international-travel-could-be-on-the-horizon-for-australia/769aba0f-bc71-40ba-82fd-f21eaa242117

I actually had my first Pfizer dose yesterday, I think there will be a clearer picture by August what’s happening regarding Travel but I’m not rushing to travel anyway, I think a slightly later delay is probably better as you don’t really know what surprises going happen ...could be spanner end up in the works yet I remember plenty of people saying last August there wouldn’t be a another lockdown and they had to eat those words twice now lol.

I think a lot of people are envious. Plus, the good weather there makes a difference. And of course the nice beaches.

I read that travel between Australia and New Zealand is set to resume. It sounds like a good plan.

That's a good article. Explains the options being considered well.

normanoffside · 11-04-2021 03:24PM

Anyway the detainees from Israel (including the Nurse who was in the news last week) are being released today.
Since they were due to be heard in the high court tomorrow the government must know that they were going to lose and the whole system declared unconstitutional.
Expect more High court challenges next week.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 03:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But I haven't seen anything about level 0, or normal life, in the context of Ireland. There's no mention of it in that plan. In that article it describes how Sweden will lift all restrictions.

I wouldn't get hung up over the definition of level 0, etc.
When the time comes for level 0 it will be pretty much complete normality.

francogarbanzo · 11-04-2021 03:29PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Do you not see any value in quarantine for people arriving into Ireland?
If we had done this last April do you not think it would have made a difference?

(Just read that article there, and it would probably make sense for there to be discretion for such cases)

Yes if we had done it last March, it would have made a difference. Now it will make no difference.

11-04-2021 03:29PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I wouldn't get hung up over the definition of level 0, etc.
When the time comes for level 0 it will be pretty much complete normality.

Maybe you're right. It'd still be good to know that there is a level 0. Ronan Glynn talking about 'a degree of normality' doesn't exactly fill a person with confidence.

Scotland's level 0 actually includes mask wearing, but is a bit vague because Sturgeon says they hope to be able to go beyond level 0.

Something like this: https://www.intellinews.com/russia-to-achieve-herd-immunity-against-the-coronavirus-by-the-end-of-august-says-putin-206850/?source=russia

"In an interview with the state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel, answering a question when the pandemic restrictions in Russia could be lifted and the country would return to a normal life, the president assured that "this will happen,” Tass reports.

He recommended Russians "listen to specialists" who say that restrictions could be lifted "after herd immunity is developed.”

"In order to make this happen, some 70% of adult population should get the jab. If [mass vaccination] goes at the same pace as now, I believe that in summer, by the end of summer we will achieve, we should achieve this figure," the president said as cited by Tass."

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 03:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe you're right. It'd still be good to know that there is a level 0. Ronan Glynn talking about 'a degree of normality' doesn't exactly fill a person with confidence.

Scotland's level 0 actually includes mask wearing, but is a bit vague because Sturgeon says they hope to be able to go beyond level 0.

Something like this: https://www.intellinews.com/russia-to-achieve-herd-immunity-against-the-coronavirus-by-the-end-of-august-says-putin-206850/?source=russia

"In an interview with the state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel, answering a question when the pandemic restrictions in Russia could be lifted and the country would return to a normal life, the president assured that "this will happen,” Tass reports.

He recommended Russians "listen to specialists" who say that restrictions could be lifted "after herd immunity is developed.”

"In order to make this happen, some 70% of adult population should get the jab. If [mass vaccination] goes at the same pace as now, I believe that in summer, by the end of summer we will achieve, we should achieve this figure," the president said as cited by Tass."

Do you think the government is just going to keep restrictions in place for no reason?

Once enough people are vaccinated things can start getting back to normal, and worrying about level 1 or level 0, etc, will become irrelevant.

Multipass · 11-04-2021 03:43PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Do you think the government is just going to keep restrictions in place for no reason?

Once enough people are vaccinated things can start getting back to normal, and worrying about level 1 or level 0, etc, will become irrelevant.

How many is enough though? And by the time we reach that level are we going to have to start thinking about round 2 for the vulnerable. The government have shown themselves to be so incapable of coherent planning that anything seems possible, our future depends on what’s trending on social media at the time.

11-04-2021 03:51PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Do you think the government is just going to keep restrictions in place for no reason?

Once enough people are vaccinated things can start getting back to normal, and worrying about level 1 or level 0, etc, will become irrelevant.

With all this talk of 'a degree of normality' and the hysteria over non-existent variants, I have very little confidence in the missing level 0 appearing even post-vaccination. But I obviously hope it does. And the fact that level 0 is missing from Scotland's roadmap and that Public Health England and SAGE are talking about mask wearing and social distancing for years isn't great either since they're next door to Ireland and what happens in the UK tends to happen in Ireland.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 03:52PM

Multipass wrote: »

How many is enough though? And by the time we reach that level are we going to have to start thinking about round 2 for the vulnerable. The government have shown themselves to be so incapable of coherent planning that anything seems possible, our future depends on what’s trending on social media at the time.

Have a look at this
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/is-vaccinating-against-covid-enough-what-we-can-learn-from-other-countries

Israel seems to have cracked it, but started earlier, and has a lot more vaccine given, and seem to be getting back to normal.
Chile, with something like 37% vaccinated (1st jab) is experiencing a big increase in cases.

So the magic number would seem to be somewhere above 37% !!

11-04-2021 03:54PM

Multipass wrote: »

How many is enough though? And by the time we reach that level are we going to have to start thinking about round 2 for the vulnerable. The government have shown themselves to be so incapable of coherent planning that anything seems possible, our future depends on what’s trending on social media at the time.

And Varadkar said in an interview a few months ago that "we know what to do for the flu now" and that post-vaccination it'd be 'a new normal'. That 'we know what to do for the flu now' could be lockdowns, masks and social distancing, plus, of course, vaccine passports. And that 'a new normal' would mean the current new normal wasn't temporary after al.

11-04-2021 03:55PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Have a look at this
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/is-vaccinating-against-covid-enough-what-we-can-learn-from-other-countries

Israel seems to have cracked it, but started earlier, and has a lot more vaccine given, and seem to be getting back to normal.
Chile, with something like 37% vaccinated (1st jab) is experiencing a big increase in cases.

So the magic number would seem to be somewhere above 37% !!

But masks still required everywhere. There's talk of them being scrapped outdoors, but nothing about shops, public transport etc.

Multipass · 11-04-2021 03:55PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Have a look at this
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/is-vaccinating-against-covid-enough-what-we-can-learn-from-other-countries

Israel seems to have cracked it, but started earlier, and has a lot more vaccine given, and seem to be getting back to normal.
Chile, with something like 37% vaccinated (1st jab) is experiencing a big increase in cases.

So the magic number would seem to be somewhere above 37% !!

Chile seems to be hampered by an ineffective Chinese vaccine, so I wouldn’t put any stock in their figures. My issue isn’t with the actual effectiveness of the vaccine, rather the effectiveness of the government to say enough is enough and accept the consequences.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 04:21PM

Deleted User wrote: »

With all this talk of 'a degree of normality' and the hysteria over non-existent variants, I have very little confidence in the missing level 0 appearing even post-vaccination.

"Non-existent variants" !!
What makes you say that?

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 04:25PM

Multipass wrote: »

Chile seems to be hampered by an infective Chinese vaccine, so I wouldn’t put any stock in their figures. My issue isn’t with the actual effectiveness of the vaccine, rather the effectiveness of the government to say enough is enough and accept the consequences.

I don't know about the effectiveness of the Chinese vaccine, perhaps that's a factor in the Chile experience. Have you a link on that?

I don't understand what you mean about the government saying enough is enough, and accepting the consequences?
Do you want the government to throw in the towel now, just as we get near the finishing line?

11-04-2021 04:36PM

PintOfView wrote: »

"Non-existent variants" !!
What makes you say that?

Sorry, non-existent is wrong because they do exist, but I often read Dr Monica Gandhi who says they are nothing to worry about (https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor). And I read the following article a poster linked to in another thread: https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/there-are-no-covid-super-strains-yet-says-virologist-vincent-racaniello

11-04-2021 04:38PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I don't know about the effectiveness of the Chinese vaccine, perhaps that's a factor in the Chile experience. Have you a link on that?

I don't understand what you mean about the government saying enough is enough, and accepting the consequences?
Do you want the government to throw in the towel now, just as we get near the finishing line?

But how do you know we're 'near the finishing line'? And why are you confident that NPHET and the government, who won't even allow (awful that I'm even writing that word) people to meet in their own garden or children to play sport, will one day soon announce that they are no longer concerned and that all the mask signs can be removed as well as the perspex screens etc?

Graham · 11-04-2021 04:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But how do you know we're 'near the finishing line'? And why are you confident that NPHET and the government, who won't even allow (awful that I'm even writing that word) people to meet in their own garden or children to play sport, will one day soon announce that they are no longer concerned and that all the mask signs can be removed as well as the perspex screens etc?

1) because no pandemic has ever been permanent.

11-04-2021 04:42PM

Graham wrote: »

1) because no pandemic has ever been permanent.

I meant in terms of lifting all restrictions. We have heard nothing about masks and social distancing, or any of the other more draconian restrictions, being scrapped.

And some think it should be permanent: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-24/when-will-covid-end-we-must-start-planning-for-a-permanent-pandemic

Graham · 11-04-2021 04:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I meant in terms of lifting all restrictions. We have heard nothing about masks and social distancing, or any of the other more draconian restrictions, being scrapped.

And some think it should be permanent: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-24/when-will-covid-end-we-must-start-planning-for-a-permanent-pandemic

Some think the earth is flat. I don't listen to them either.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 04:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But how do you know we're 'near the finishing line'? And why are you confident that NPHET and the government, who won't even allow (awful that I'm even writing that word) people to meet in their own garden or children to play sport, will one day soon announce that they are no longer concerned and that all the mask signs can be removed as well as the perspex screens etc?

I don't know how long more restrictions will last, etc.,
but with plenty of people already vaccinated, and reports of increasing supplies in the next month or two,
it seems to me that we'll be in a very different environment by mid summer.

Israel was one of the earliest counties off the mark, and with a large percentage of the population now vaccinated it seems very clear the vaccine is working.

So, is it not reasonable to assume we'll be at Israel's stage by mid summer?

PTH2009 · 11-04-2021 04:49PM

The sad thing people are still going to support NPHET and the government no matter what ridiculous restrictions they will implement

The Vaccine rollout is a great thing for them to hide behind. They have no control over supply and it's there get out of jail free card

Imagine us having to go into another lockdown because of other illnesses, while the rest of the world gets on with things

We all knw NPHET will never not feel worried and suggest massive reopenings

Multipass · 11-04-2021 04:52PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I don't know about the effectiveness of the Chinese vaccine, perhaps that's a factor in the Chile experience. Have you a link on that?

I don't understand what you mean about the government saying enough is enough, and accepting the consequences?
Do you want the government to throw in the towel now, just as we get near the finishing line?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3128886/chile-covid-19-vaccination-drive-adds-sinovac-efficacy-data

3% efficacy after first dose, rising to 56% after second.
You say as we get near the finishing line - that line keeps shifting, and there is no acknowledgement or discussion by anyone in government of it even existing.

Graham · 11-04-2021 04:53PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

The sad thing people are still going to support NPHET and the government no matter what ridiculous restrictions they will implement

The Vaccine rollout is a great thing for them to hide behind. They have no control over supply and it's there get out of jail free card

Imagine people thinking vaccinations are a reasonable response to a virus :rolleyes:

Lumen · 11-04-2021 04:53PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Have a look at this
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/is-vaccinating-against-covid-enough-what-we-can-learn-from-other-countries

Israel seems to have cracked it, but started earlier, and has a lot more vaccine given, and seem to be getting back to normal.
Chile, with something like 37% vaccinated (1st jab) is experiencing a big increase in cases.

So the magic number would seem to be somewhere above 37% !!

That Guardian article is crap. Obviously Israel are doing better because they have vaccinated a far larger proportion of the population. The major inflection seemed to come when they hit around 1 dose per capita.

The remaining cases seem to be clustered around ethnic minorities e.g. Bedouin, who presumably are a bit wary of needles presented by those who have bulldozed their homes. The Israeli government Covid dashboard shows where the highest case rates are, geographically.

Herd immunity is mathematically simple to model at a basic level. It's 1-(1/R0). So if R0 is 2.5, herd immunity is when around 60% of the population is not susceptible. Restrictions suppress the reproduction rate, so as the "not susceptible" rate increases, restrictions can be progressively lifted to keep R under 1. That's what Israel have done.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 04:53PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

The sad thing people are still going to support NPHET and the government no matter what ridiculous restrictions they will implement

The Vaccine rollout is a great thing for them to hide behind. They have no control over supply and it's there get out of jail free card

Imagine us having to go into another lockdown because of other illnesses, while the rest of the world gets on with things

We all knw NPHET will never not feel worried and suggest massive reopenings

Why do you think the restrictions were ridiculous?
What would you have done if you were the leader of the country?

M_Murphy57 · 11-04-2021 04:53PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I don't know how long more restrictions will last, etc.,
but with plenty of people already vaccinated, and reports of increasing supplies in the next month or two,
it seems to me that we'll be in a very different environment by mid summer.

Israel was one of the earliest counties off the mark, with a large percentage of the population now vaccinated it seems very clear the vaccine is working.

So is it not reasonable to assume we'll be at Israel's stage by mid summer!!

The Irish government quarantined vaccinated arrivals from Israel this week and they were only released because they had the means to bring a legal challenge.

Why would we look to Israel for "the future is brighter" when the minister for health has made it very clear hes completely incompetent and lacks any ability to understand risk and make sound decisions ?

A year ago I'd gave thought what I just wrote was conspiracy theory but this is our current lived reality. The only vaccine "bonus" to date is to allow 2 people to meet indoors!

11-04-2021 04:54PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I don't know how long more restrictions will last, etc.,
but with plenty of people already vaccinated, and reports of increasing supplies in the next month or two,
it seems to me that we'll be in a very different environment by mid summer.

Israel was one of the earliest counties off the mark, and with a large percentage of the population now vaccinated it seems very clear the vaccine is working.

So, is it not reasonable to assume we'll be at Israel's stage by mid summer?

But not a lot has changed in Israel. Masks still required everywhere, children still have to wear them in school, and they have created a two-tier society.

Logically there should be no need for any restrictions in a few weeks or months, but logic seems to be in short supply these days: https://hoganstand.com/Article/Index/316425

"Meath U20 manager Bernard Flynn has hit out at the fact that players at the age group can't go back training collectively on April 26, saying it's 'lunacy' considering their minor counterparts are allowed.

The GAA are still seeking information from Government officials on the prospects of a return to play for the minor and U20 age groups.

But inter-county minors have received clarity that they go back to non-contact training in pods of 15 later this month yet no date has been set for the U20 grade to resume activity.

Flynn wasn't happy after the GAA decided to omit U20 competitions from their 2021 masters fixtures plan rolled out last Thursday and took to Twitter to vent his frustration.

The former All-Star tweeted: "How in the name of God can you tell a 16/17 year old kid its ok to go back training on the 26th of April but you tell a 18/19 year old he can’t. PURE LUNACY.""

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings