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Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1622
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,972 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    MD1990 wrote: »
    I understand calls for some regional lifting where cases are low.

    But if we lift restrictions nationwide we get another wave similar to christmas.

    Schools unfortunately & people breaking restrictions will see a rise next months most likely.
    some people just not thinking logically. We just get another lockdown if we lift restrictions with cases still too high

    No they won't. Most people want the 5km relaxed and construction opened.

    Not pubs and restaurants for 3 weeks followed by indoor dinner with a load of old and vulnerable relatives in the week after a free for all of inbound travel from one of the world's biggest covid hotspots


  • #1623
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,718 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    The fact they think we could end up with 2000 cases a day if 5k limit is extended is farcical! Counties the size of Cork and Kerry which have very little covid if any, how would I catch covid by walking on Garryvoe beach or going to the lakes in Killarney! I’m not going to go and lick someone or ask them to shift me!

    They're completely out of touch at this stage. RTE and Claire Byrne doing their best to keep the fear up tonight.


  • #1624
    11521323
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 304 ✭✭11521323


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Because reducing it to 2km would likely not fix it. What restriction would you impose instead that would work to get numbers down ?

    I've said this to you 5+ times already. Here it is again.

    For ANY restriction to work, you need public buy-in and you need people need to comply. For people to comply, they need motivation to do so. For them to have motivation and trust in the Government, they need to be given options and hope.

    Perpetually having these nonsensical restrictions in place will never get you more compliance which is why it has stopped working.

    If you lift that nonsensical limit, give people some semblance of hope and give them safe, outdoor options, you regain trust and compliance and you steady the ship. Not that hard to understand.


  • #1625
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,228 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Any truth in this

    https://twitter.com/GabbyWr93083658/status/1376656584554786816?s=19


  • #1626
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    marno21 wrote: »
    How do you input mass disobedience and complete collapse of public buy in to the modelling?

    It's evidently going on already and it's compliance isn't going to increase if we get told we're bold and getting no treats tomorrow.

    I'd love a journalist to ask that of Philip Nolan and Ronan Glynn


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  • #1627
    h2005
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭h2005


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Any truth in this

    https://twitter.com/GabbyWr93083658/status/1376656584554786816?s=19

    I’d really doubt it.


  • #1628
    cjyid
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 104 ✭✭cjyid


    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376653365489319937?s=19

    Are they really rising though?


  • #1629
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,718 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Why such a hostile reaction ? They arent just making up arbitrary rules for fun of it. If thats what the modelling says, thats what the modelling says. It would be irresponsible of NPHET not to spell this out of thats the ways it is. No point blaming them for the maths of the virus.

    The "maths of the virus"..... Jesus wept.


  • #1630
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    If they come out with that people will just throw the towel in. *The 5km is already being widely ignored.

    *Its not you know ...


  • #1631
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,990 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    cjyid wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376653365489319937?s=19

    Are they really rising though?


    Spoilers







    No


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  • #1632
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    11521323 wrote: »
    I've said this to you 5+ times already. Here it is again.

    For ANY restriction to work, you need public buy-in and you need people need to comply. For people to comply, they need motivation to do so. For them to have motivation and trust in the Government, they need to be given options and hope.

    Perpetually having these nonsensical restrictions in place will never get you more compliance which is why it has stopped working.

    If you lift that nonsensical limit, give people some semblance of hope and give them safe, outdoor options, you regain trust and compliance and you steady the ship. Not that hard to understand.

    How does hope reduce spread of the virus ? While there are the nonconformers, as long as there is a sizeable number conforming, the benefit of the restrictions is there. Its unequal - those complying are doing double the hardship to make up for those who dont give a toss. But overall, the restrictions are still to the benefit of all, so those with discipline, and the courage to observe the restrictions are doing society a service.


  • #1633
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,912 ✭✭✭Danno


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Because reducing it to 2km would likely not fix it. What restriction would you impose instead that would work to get numbers down ?

    Who cares about the numbers. With enough of the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated it shouldn't matter what case numbers are. I genuinely hope that the minute the vulnerable and elderly get done, we see 300k to 500k cases a day. Everything covid related would be over in three weeks.


  • #1634
    11521323
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 304 ✭✭11521323


    cjyid wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376653365489319937?s=19

    Are they really rising though?

    If you factor in positive cases per tests completed, nope. But any data they can reframe to support their 'cautious' approach the better.


  • #1635
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    How does it work in every other country in Europe? Do their public health doctors not look for as strict restrictions as NPHET does here or is it that they do but their governments just disagree and have lighter restrictions instead? Genuine question, it's just the longer this goes on the more baffling it all is!


  • #1636
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,861 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Any truth in this

    https://twitter.com/GabbyWr93083658/status/1376656584554786816?s=19

    Well it's definitely not St Vincents, 41% of there patients are in ICU.


  • #1637
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,463 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    cjyid wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376653365489319937?s=19

    Are they really rising though?

    I’d say no, they happened to open walk in centres for possible asymptomatic cases!! Why not open walk ins in all counties and root out all the infection and isolate then!


  • #1638
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    blowitupref wrote: »
    You still haven't answered my original question.

    Which was what? I didn't see a second question question.

    I answered the first one

    First rule of statistics. Don't take one day's data (or one week's) in isolation.


  • #1639
    11521323
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 304 ✭✭11521323


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    How does hope reduce spread of the virus ? While there are the nonconformers, as long as there is a sizeable number conforming, the benefit of the restrictions is there. Its unequal - those complying are doing double the hardship to make up for those who dont give a toss. But overall, the restrictions are still to the benefit of all, so those with discipline, and the courage to observe the restrictions are doing society a service.

    You really are so deliriously oblivious to reality it's not even funny. I'm done replying to you because you're either a troll or incapable of using critical thinking and scientific reasoning. Just because you keep saying something, doesn't make it true, regardless of how many times you say it.


  • #1640
    11521323
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 304 ✭✭11521323


    Klonker wrote: »
    How does it work in every other country in Europe? Do their public health doctors not look for as strict restrictions as NPHET does here or is it that they do but their governments just disagree and have lighter restrictions instead? Genuine question, it's just the longer this goes on the more baffling it all is!

    Other Governments actually govern. Ours have handed over the running of the country to NPHET.

    The government should be hearing from experts across all sectors and areas when making a decision but they're so laser-focused on Covid, they're neglecting everything else.


  • #1641
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,862 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1376659084141793285?s=20

    So, exactly what we thought.


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  • #1642
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,756 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1376659084141793285?s=20

    So, exactly what we thought.

    Yup as you were in terms of what was already flagged as being under consideration

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376660494577242113?s=19


  • #1643
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,862 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yup as you were

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376660494577242113?s=19

    I await the outrage on here when the government do *checks notes* exactly what they said they would do......


  • #1644
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yup as you were

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376660494577242113?s=19

    Bet the steps will be phased in over two months just to align with NPHET


  • #1645
    Corholio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,014 ✭✭✭✭Corholio


    It doesn't look like there'll be anything new in what was expected really, I think it's more the negative talk about how the restrictions plan will work going forward. I'm personally just about ok with the expected things get eased, 5km, kids sports, construction etc.

    Not having any sort of guide for the months ahead is very disappointing though and ridiculous at this stage. For those saying 'well how can you have a plan when cases could change?', well cases 'could change' from the second the virus was in this country and we previously actually had a roadmap. Even with this variant, cases aren't necessarily going up, just a lot more stubborn. Even with changes in Europe, countries still have roadmaps but it's severely lacking here.


  • #1646
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yup as you were

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376660494577242113?s=19

    Thats not as we were. Thats a plan of staged relaxation of restrictions over the next two months. Really ? Is it that difficult to go cautiously for just a few more months until the vaccines reach the English level ? Look at where they are and they only opened golf today ? And people here want it next week ! We are 6-8 weeks behind. EU vaccine programme to blame on that one. But NPHET and the govt can only go on the facts as they are, not how they would like them to be.


  • #1647
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    So...according to the Irish Times, we can avoid going from 600 cases a day to 2000 cases a day by:

    “The ‘big bang’ means we could go from 600 cases a day to 2,000 cases a day in a week,” a Government source said. “It allows us to be that little bit more cautious, especially with what we’re seeing elsewhere. We’ve had a third wave, most of Europe is in their third wave, and we don’t want a fourth wave.”

    This could mean that the 5km travel restriction is eased one week, the remaining school classes on another and later in April two households could meet outdoors in a park but not in a private garden.


    Cleary gardens are very dangerous places.


  • #1648
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yup as you were

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1376660494577242113?s=19

    "Let's move a little bit at a time so they won't notice and we won't get given out to"

    These are suppose to be the leaders of our country ffs. I'm actually embarrassed of our country at the moment and I don't say that lightly.


  • #1649
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,756 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Thats not as we were. Thats a plan of staged relaxation of restrictions over the next two months. Really ? Is it that difficult to go cautiously for just a few more months until the vaccines reach the English level ? Look at where they are and they only opened golf today ? And people here want it next week ! We are 6-8 weeks behind. EU vaccine programme to blame on that one. But NPHET and the govt can only go on the facts as they are, not how they would like them to be.

    Where are you getting 2 months from ? I'll have a good guess that your pulling it from sky (like alot of posts)

    They're looking at what they said they'd look at, and ease what was expected to ease, its as you were from what they said they'd look at a few weeks ago.

    As for go cautiously for the next few months... your either way out of touch with public sentiment or your just on a wind up now


  • #1650
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,862 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    Corholio wrote: »
    It doesn't look like there'll be anything new in what was expected really, I think it's more the negative talk about how the restrictions plan will work going forward. I'm personally just about ok with the expected things get eased, 5km, kids sports, construction etc.

    Not having any sort of guide for the months ahead is very disappointing though and ridiculous at this stage. For those saying 'well how can you have a plan when cases could change?', well cases 'could change' from the second the virus was in this country and we previously actually had a roadmap. Even with this variant, cases aren't necessarily going up, just a lot more stubborn. Even with changes in Europe, countries still have roadmaps but it's severely lacking here.

    https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1376660990595567622?s=20

    If you've been reading between the lines, may is on course for a major easing of restrictions, so why they won't come out and give the caveats necessary for it is beyond me.

    Hopefully I'm proven wrong tomorrow.......


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  • #1651
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Where are you getting 2 months from ? I'll have a good guess that your pulling it from sky (like alot of posts)

    We are 6-8 weeks behind Britain. In general, we have been tighter than them. So unlikely at this stage to see us exceed their rate of reopening. So two months or so. Its a reasonable benchmark. And sounds in line with the mood music coming from NPHET and govt leaks through the journos.


This discussion has been closed.
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