2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

MacronvFrugals · 25-03-2021 10:16PM

Does anyone know what percentage of GDP housing accounts for in Ireland?

hometruths · 25-03-2021 10:17PM

Marius34 wrote: »

No, i'm not saying that BTL alone fuelled bubble, it's massive Credits taken by BTL/FTB/STB.
20% might look as not to high in percentage form, but it's most probably higher in volume (28,000 properties/in 2006), then all none-household buyers all added-up together in current year.
And 23% might look high today, but the same number of sales would be below 10% in 2006 competition

I guess then the 23% of the significantly lower volume is moving the price more in 2020 than the BTL crowd in 2006.

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 10:19PM

schmittel wrote: »

You've been banging on that we are not currently in a bubble because there is no cheap and easy credit in the market, look at the CBI income and LTV rules etc.

From these posts it seemed that you had failed to understand the impact of the cheap and easy credit available to the funds/councils etc.

But your posts this evening confirm that you've recognised that now.

So if you now think that there is in fact cheap and easy credit in the market, is it possible that we are currently in a bubble?

Yeah I was of that opinion up till the start of the year as the historical data would of borne that out that we were not in a bubble but recently in the last month or so I think we might be at the start of one. Prices seem to be flying up and with people bidding against the state with their access to credit it might inflate it for some time. But like everything else we will only know in hindsight

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 10:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It is insane. You’d want to be small too. Extrapolate the height of the downstairs ceiling from the height of the chairs and dining table. It ain’t high.

I think the ceilings look normal heigh. The gates are open when I walk past sometimes and it looks standard enough.

MacronvFrugals · 25-03-2021 10:29PM

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009

‘There is no question that almost all of the Irish media
for the last 10–15 years has had a crucial economic stake in a rising property
market. Because property advertising is very lucrative and is a very important
part of what makes the Irish media tick"

This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 10:34PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009

This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

Well with the way the winds have change with regards to newspapers and with advertising I don't think the property porn section that once existed in certain papers would be the boon for them it once was.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 10:37PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah I was of the opinion up till the start of the year as the historical data would of borne that out that we were not in a bubble but recently in the last month or so I think we might be at the start of one. Prices seem to be flying up and with people bidding against the state with their access to credit it might inflate it for some time. But like everything else we will only know in hindsight

Well that clears that up. No argument from me with the above about this year anyway.

I must have misunderstood you, as for some reason I thought you were saying the complete opposite yesterday:

fliball123 wrote: »

Also there is no easy access to credit, ask anyone trying to get a mortgage the hoops you have to jump through are crazy and the central bank rules have keep prices in check. 2005/6 banks were given money out like confetti, 110% mortgages anyone.. The is not the same in 2021

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 10:38PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009

This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

Am sure he’s a clever boy and knows his stuff but also 1 of the 0 Covidiots. Imagine a geography teacher telling people how to manage the Irish border! Mad stuff altogether!

MacronvFrugals · 25-03-2021 10:53PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Am sure he’s a clever boy and knows his stuff but also 1 of the 0 Covidiots. Imagine a geography teacher telling people how to manage the Irish border! Mad stuff altogether!

Almost nobody else did these type of statistical analysis's on this subject, something we should be hugely grateful for!

Although today we have some protections in place the bubble arguments are eerily similar

For example, economic consultant Peter Bacon said that the ‘housing market is
well underpinned by demographics’ (27 August 2003).

Fianna Fail politician Sean Fleming declared that ‘definitely, the house market is going to be very strong in Ireland for the years to come’ because of ‘growing population’ and because ‘incomes are strong’ (12 April 2006).

On the same show, Shane Daly (of real estate company Gunne New Homes) said that ‘people exaggerate often the level of debt that people are getting into’ (12 April 2006).

Timing belt · 25-03-2021 11:15PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Show me one bubble in history not predicated on easy access to cheap credit?

The impact of low interest rates is the equivalent of cheap credit....on the retail side you have people with extra cash that they have not invested or left in a savings account...on the wholesale side funds have access to cheap source of capital to invest... This also explains why rising property prices is worldwide and not just isolated to Ireland.

Fuzzy_Dunlop · 25-03-2021 11:16PM

sanfranbest wrote: »

This house has been on the market for a few months, it was originally priced at 1.2 million,
Now it has been relisted at 995k

It's still a horrible house,, no curb appeal,,, dark and bad layout,

Still not worth 995K,,,
You are paying for the address,, not the house,,

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4/3152823

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Smouse156 · 26-03-2021 12:11PM

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

How was that asking 1.2? Or even 995k. It’s a 2-bed. Can buy a 2-bed in Lansdowne Place cheaper, similar size.

26-03-2021 12:14PM

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Bizarre isn't it. It's like they were planning to build bigger at the back and then stopped.

JohnnyChimpo · 26-03-2021 12:47PM

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote: »

Bizarre isn't it. It's like they were planning to build bigger at the back and then stopped.

I thought this was just the usual Boardsie begrudgery, but then I took a look at the link and it's truly one of the most GUBU house designs I've ever seen. Mews designs are often weird, and maybe there were issues with historical protection, but still very strange

Tea drinker · 26-03-2021 02:44PM

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Well...if ever you get into reconditioning truck engines you can put a hoist on it and use as a gantry.

Hubertj · 26-03-2021 03:38PM

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

I thought this was just the usual Boardsie begrudgery, but then I took a look at the link and it's truly one of the most GUBU house designs I've ever seen. Mews designs are often weird, and maybe there were issues with historical protection, but still very strange

While those mews aren’t protected structures there are feature walls at the back on the upper leve which have to be preserved. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

lalababa · 26-03-2021 04:00PM

Apologies if this has been touched on before..but just took a look at bidx1 results for March in the lower price brackets and by my reckoning results are around 1/3 higher than a year ago. E.g. a group of holiday homes in Kerry that went for between 40k and 65k from 2019 on has one sold in March for c.103k.
Banna beach holiday homes.
Houses off the beaten track or well in the countryside that were 35-75k are now 50-100k.

JimmyVik · 26-03-2021 04:18PM

lalababa wrote: »

Apologies if this has been touched on before..but just took a look at bidx1 results for March in the lower price brackets and by my reckoning results are around 1/3 higher than a year ago. E.g. a group of holiday homes in Kerry that went for between 40k and 65k from 2019 on has one sold in March for c.103k.
Banna beach holiday homes.
Houses off the beaten track or well in the countryside that were 35-75k are now 50-100k.

People are mad for holiday homes these days, brought on by the covid madness

You would have some buyers remorse when Covid is gone and those holiday homes go back to normal prices.

fliball123 · 26-03-2021 08:14PM

schmittel wrote: »

Well that clears that up. No argument from me with the above about this year anyway.

I must have misunderstood you, as for some reason I thought you were saying the complete opposite yesterday:

No as you say I think you misunderstood no harm no foul

hometruths · 26-03-2021 09:01PM

fliball123 wrote: »

No as you say I think you misunderstood no harm no foul

If you agree that the govt and funds have easy access to cheap credit, presumably you'd agree this credit has been in the market long before 2021?

The funds have been very active since about 2013.

Zenify · 27-03-2021 10:02AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

Hubertj · 27-03-2021 10:07AM

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

I think it is a repeat of what he recently discussed in his podcast. The podcast was discussed in here a few pages back I think. Market is broken, etc.

hometruths · 27-03-2021 10:29AM

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

He's calling for a buyer's strike! Telling 30 somethings to act collectively and refuse to pay current prices.

He makes the same point again about the idea that buyers re panicking to get on the ladder and then happy to pull the ladder up behind them:

The worst thing about this state of affairs is that once you buy a property, you swap sides. When looking for a property, the buyer wants prices to fall, but once the property is purchased, self-interest morphs the new homeowner into a person who wants prices to rise.

However, this game of looting the younger generation to copper-bottom the wealth of the older generation can only go on so long. Eventually, prices go so high that rates of home ownership plummet, as is happening now. At this point, the state that is wedded to the property-finance complex comes up with all sorts of wheezes to keep the intergenerational scam going.

LasersGoPewPew · 27-03-2021 03:08PM

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

yagan · 27-03-2021 03:16PM

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

The last year is not comparable to any year, either in a booming or falling market.

I'd describe it as ossified market.

He did raise an interesting point about volume last being this low as 2006 when the prices were red hot. I remember noting empty estates piling up all around yet venders weren't selling. One high end empty gated estate near where I was living had actually been taken over the bank in 2006 and they were simply hoarding it.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when viewings can start up again.

Marius34 · 27-03-2021 05:19PM

yagan wrote: »

The last year is not comparable to any year, either in a booming or falling market.

I'd describe it as ossified market.

He did raise an interesting point about volume last being this low as 2006 when the prices were red hot. I remember noting empty estates piling up all around yet venders weren't selling. One high end empty gated estate near where I was living had actually been taken over the bank in 2006 and they were simply hoarding it.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when viewings can start up again.

Busy, bidding wars to continue for the rest of the year.

Villa05 · 27-03-2021 05:45PM

LasersGoPewPew wrote:

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

I don't think he predicted a collapse. He said we are in a bubble and the property market is a scam.continuation of these issues will lead to a crash.
It is refreshing for a property owner to be crying foul to rising prices if we all did the solutions would come much quicker.

The cause and answer to rising prices is obvious and that is government policy

And your views on the quality and state of the market are the very reasons David called for a buyers strike

Hubertj · 27-03-2021 07:38PM

Can someone please link the report that shows how many / % of properties purchased by consumers vs non consumers (state, funds, etc)?
Think it was linked in last few weeks but am unable to find it.

So the latest report I can find is this but it’s a year old

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2020/non-householdsector/

I presume there is more up to date but I am unable to find it

mcsean2163 · 27-03-2021 08:40PM

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

He's in dalkey and don't forget about the holiday home in Croatia.

Cyrus · 27-03-2021 09:17PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He's in dalkey and don't forget about the holiday home in Croatia.

He isn’t and nor was he

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1