Will the Rovers ever Return? Your pub megathread, Part 2 - threadbans in OP

W123-80's wrote: »

I'd agree that from a very optimistic perspective pubs might open in July.
I honestly don't see it happening though.

I think we might get restaurants and gastro pubs in July/August if the vaccination programme is working well and if variants aren't screwing things up.

Thats some huge if's though.

In my opinion it will be 2022 before a wet pub can sell a pint, and it'll be even further into the future before the wet pubs as we knew them in 2019 return. No limits on numbers, no time restrictions, allowed stand/sit at the bar etc.
Thats 2023 territory.

Honestly not sure if this is a genuine opinion or a wind-up.

You do know that the vaccines work very effectively against "the variants". See Israel for a real life example of this. Also look at Israel for lack of social-distancing, or any real form of restrictions. My point is, once we reach Israel levels of vaccinations (~60-70%), the justification for any kind of restrictions are gone. Israel, and eventually the UK and US, will lead us out of this. Even Denmark published a plan earlier this week indicating an end to all restrictions once the over 50's have been vaccinated.

dominatinMC wrote: »

Honestly not sure if this is a genuine opinion or a wind-up.

You do know that the vaccines work very effectively against "the variants". See Israel for a real life example of this. Also look at Israel for lack of social-distancing, or any real form of restrictions. My point is, once we reach Israel levels of vaccinations (~60-70%), the justification for any kind of restrictions are gone. Israel, and eventually the UK and US, will lead us out of this. Even Denmark published a plan earlier this week indicating an end to all restrictions once the over 50's have been vaccinated.

Not a wind up at all and I genuinely hope every single thing you said manifests very very soon.

I love the pub.

But at the moment with Europe in a 4th wave, us in the middle of a vaccination programme, the entire planet waiting and hoping for positive long term results, I think its gonna be 2022 before we get a wet pub and probably 2023 before we can enjoy our local boozer 2019 style.

Genuinely hope I am wrong and feel free to roar I told you so if I am, but I suspect I won't be far away in terms of my timelines.

Lots of unknowns yet.

fin12 wrote: »

There are no such thing as waves, u will have cases going up every time u come out of a lockdown, it’s ridiculous, u can have as much waves as u want so. You will have a wave every time u lift restrictions, the whole thing is billsh*t. By 2023 will will be on at least our 10th wave by then....

Fair enough. I'm just giving my honest opinion on the situation.

If you want to claim there are no such thing as waves and the whole thing is bullsh*t that's also fair enough, at least give it the caveat that its your opinion though. Because that's all it is. Your opinion.

I stand by my prediction and hope I am wrong, but the unknowns outweigh the knowns at this point hence continued restrictions all over europe.

dominatinMC wrote: »

Fair enough. Just something to note though, and an important one, we are not "in the middle of a vaccination programme". We are at the beginning, hence that's why things look so bleak and stark, and you get posters like Kunta Kinte masquerading as clairvoyants, feeding on these emotions.

If you want to see what life is like "in the middle of a vaccination programme", I suggest you google "Israel + vaccine", normality is alive and well there. A window into the (not-too-distant!) future.

We have a poster on this page of this thread stating as a fact there is no such thing as waves and the whole thing is bulls*it.
That kind of sillyness needs to be called out.

I agree things do look bleak and stark and I concede you are correct we are at the beginning of the vaccination rollout not the middle.
My concern is the unknowns. Achieving herd immunity, variants, winter etc
In terms of Israel, they are doing well but even they are hitting some issues outlined in this interesting article;
https://time.com/5947967/israel-covid-vaccine-rollout/

In terms of my central point, which is we are a long long way away from pre-pandamic style pubs, I stand by that point.
I think it will be 2023 at least before I can wander into a pub, plonk myself at the counter, order a pint and chat to the lad next to me.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20210307-israel-opens-restaurants-and-bars-to-customers-vaccinated-against-covid-19

A quote from the above article looking at Israels reopening of bars & restaurants;

Restaurants are now permitted to resume indoor dining up to 75 percent capacity, with a cap of 100 people and with tables two metres (6.5 feet) apart.

Green pass holders can also now have a drink at a bar -- but cannot yet strike up a chat with a stranger sitting on the stool beside them, with rules requiring an empty seat between patrons, unless they live together.

Now when you consider how far ahead Israel are in the vaccination rollout, and not allowing for any spanner in the works on their end, its fair to say we are a long long way away from normality in a pub.

I'd say I won't be far off on my 2023 prediction.

Unfortunately.

W123-80's wrote: »

Not a wind up at all and I genuinely hope every single thing you said manifests very very soon.

I love the pub.

But at the moment with Europe in a 4th wave, us in the middle of a vaccination programme, the entire planet waiting and hoping for positive long term results, I think its gonna be 2022 before we get a wet pub and probably 2023 before we can enjoy our local boozer 2019 style.

Genuinely hope I am wrong and feel free to roar I told you so if I am, but I suspect I won't be far away in terms of my timelines.

Lots of unknowns yet.

Europe is not in a 4th wave. Those countries seeing surges are seeing their third wave brought on by the B117 variant, just as we had our 3rd wave at Xmas.

W123-80's wrote: »

We have a poster on this page of this thread stating as a fact there is no such thing as waves and the whole thing is bulls*it.
That kind of sillyness needs to be called out.

I agree things do look bleak and stark and I concede you are correct we are at the beginning of the vaccination rollout not the middle.
My concern is the unknowns. Achieving herd immunity, variants, winter etc
In terms of Israel, they are doing well but even they are hitting some issues outlined in this interesting article;
https://time.com/5947967/israel-covid-vaccine-rollout/

In terms of my central point, which is we are a long long way away from pre-pandamic style pubs, I stand by that point.
I think it will be 2023 at least before I can wander into a pub, plonk myself at the counter, order a pint and chat to the lad next to me.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20210307-israel-opens-restaurants-and-bars-to-customers-vaccinated-against-covid-19

A quote from the above article looking at Israels reopening of bars & restaurants;



Now when you consider how far ahead Israel are in the vaccination rollout, and not allowing for any spanner in the works on their end, its fair to say we are a long long way away from normality in a pub.

I'd say I won't be far off on my 2023 prediction.

Unfortunately.

We'll have to agree to disagree then. 2023 is laughable in my opinion, but each to their own. And the articles you have cited give more cause for optimism than pessimism. The fact that Israel are approx. only 4 months into their vaccination programme (we'll call it the middle) and people are actually allowed wander into a pub can only be viewed as a success, and progress on the road to normality. They've gone from full lockdown to almost fully-open in 4 months. We're expected to be in their situation by mid-Summer. Extrapolate that progress and you get to a stage of zero (more-or-less) restrictions much sooner than 2023.

W123-80's wrote: »

Happy to agree to disagree. The articles certainly give cause for cautious optimism, I wouldn't disagree with you on that point. They also highlight that even with the fastest vaccination programme on the planet, Israel are still under significant restrictions in bars & restaurants and the rollout is slowing as they struggle to entice enough people on board to reach the magical herd immunity number.
Its fair to assume they will be under hospitality related restrictions for another 3/6 months and we are a good bit behind them.

So normality by September (6 months from now) for Israel then? We are currently 3 months behind them, very rough (and hopeful) extrapolation would put us in their "September" position by Christmas so - perfect timing!

W123-80's wrote: »

I would be delighted if I am proven fully wrong but I don't see a situation where we can return to pre-pandamic pub environment in 2021

Fair enough, and that could well be the case.

W123-80's wrote: »

and I think it'll be a stretch to get to that point at any point in the first half of 2022 which makes me think a reasonable guesstimate for landing into a nice busy pub, pulling up a high stool and milling a few cool pints with no restrictions is much closer to 2023.

Okay, so worst case scenario is mid-2022 (unlikely imo). That's still a huge leap to 2023.

I don't think we'll change each others opinions, but that won't stop us trying!

Are so pubs actually more well off with the supports than they would when open as normal ?. Prob more or so some small country pubs would fall into this bracket but i imagine the staff/owners miss seeing the locals for the chat etc

Viscount Aggro wrote: »

Dropping Well pub is doing a roaring trade.

Why you trying to get them in trouble?

Do the Dropping Well have open toilet facilities??? the dodder is already littered with dog foul and hanging plastics I wonder if there is an increase in human element?

The National Botanic Gardens have lovely toilet facilites but you're not allowed bring alcohol.

IMO any pub that does takeaways to be consumed at home or 100m away should open up their toilet facilities to the punters.

Looking forward to a daytime walking tour of the takeaway pub offerings in the city next Friday with some of the lads.

Garda keeping their word to object
https://connachttribune.ie/galway-publican-in-court-over-alleged-breach-of-covid-regulations/

The Garda Inspector had opposed the renewal of three pub licences for what he said were breaches of Covid guidelines, during the course of inspections carried out when the situation was relaxed during the course of 2020.
The publican is charged with breaching a regulation to prevent, limit, minimise or slow the spread of Covid-19. It relates to an alleged breach that occurred on August 30

fin12 wrote: »

Yes but if u never lockdown there would be no such thing as waves. It’s created by lockdowns.how come there was only 1 wave in the Spanish flu one cause they only locked down once. There’s also now some deadly Tipperary variant out there...

Sounds like a solid enough medically based theory to me 🙄

Cheers, surprising they didn't open sooner if it was advise rather than legal action. I'm based around the city centre and noticed Harry's was serving take away pints one afternoon(Monday ?), then the next day other pubs started opening back up. Prior to this there was nowhere (that I know of) in the city centre that served takeway pints since January.

Interesting how this will pan out.