2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 12:42PM

K.Hawksworth wrote:

These aren't vested interests (like EAs) trying to hype the market either. Looks a certainty now that prices are going to keep rising over the next 1-2 years.

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

awec · 25-03-2021 12:44PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

This is proper conspiracy theory stuff.

The BBC also had a piece on Intel yesterday that also spoke to their expansion in Kildare, do you they're in on it as well?

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 12:48PM

How do prices on 2nd hand vs new home compare? With reports of significantly reduced supply of new builds due to restrictions that impacts supply. However, there are clearly a lot of people holding their property back from the market for obvious reasons. So when restrictions are lifted etc what will net impact be on supply considering price differential new v 2nd hand etc. Also am I correct in thinking that 2nd hand homes are not eligible for HTB? That would also need to be considered.

25-03-2021 12:53PM

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s pretty bad taste on his part. Didn’t he make a balls up with property in the past? Something to do with Detroit?

Any individual giving money to or basing decisions on this puffed-up clown deserves what they get

Any platform giving him attention should be pilloried

Himself, george lee, david mcwilliams, three experts who either just handwave away realities by using vague, idealised cases or ignore amy of their previous writings/witterings that prove disastrous.

We love wafflers who never have to do anything or stand over anything. Shane ross and george lee found out and were found out, people should have been watching closely and considered what that taught us about the value of celebrity columnists in actual practice

25-03-2021 12:55PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

McWilliams recommending people not to bother buying now, due to these conditions, he's probably right to, brutal time for buyers

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

Galwayhurl · 25-03-2021 01:12PM

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

timmyntc · 25-03-2021 01:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

Prices will increase if people try to buy now

Ozark707 · 25-03-2021 01:18PM

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

Dublin?

Galwayhurl · 25-03-2021 01:21PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

Dublin?

Mostly Dundalk and Drogheda. Also Wexford and Limerick.

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 01:30PM

awec wrote:

The BBC also had a piece on Intel yesterday that also spoke to their expansion in Kildare, do you they're in on it as well?

Journalism has got lazy and more copy and paste, you don't see much investigative journalism anymore. It's all press releases regurgitated. I just feel it is suspicious that this is news again 2 years after it was annonced.

Conspiracy theory, this maybe but do you thrust media given recent history
British media is openly labelled as either pro or nay Brexit

Irish media has always been property bubble cheerleading tool

L1011 · 25-03-2021 01:31PM

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

Or people read the last few days of stories about asking prices being exceeded and decided to capitalise, which is far more likely.

cnocbui · 25-03-2021 01:34PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

I think it's a deliberate thing to try and draw attention to the company and the new CEO who seems to fancy he's a superhero. There has been simultaneous chest-thumping in the US as well:

‘Intel is back:’ New CEO’s plan to make chips for other companies excites investors
Published Tue, Mar 23

Intel said it would double down on manufacturing, and invest $20 billion in two new chip factories in Arizona.

So it's just puffery and likely won't result in 1600 'new' jobs, as Jill V. mentioned previously.

cnocbui · 25-03-2021 01:42PM

Property prices are heading up globally and I think McWilliams is potentially doing people a great disservice with his distinctly questionable advice and assessments.

He sounds like people in early 2017 advising people not to buy bitcoin when it was $2K 'it's too expensive, it's not worth that, it's going to crash, you'll lose it all.'

Tea drinker · 25-03-2021 01:49PM

Yurt! wrote: »

When you see Eddie Hobbs jumping up and down trying to get in on the act you know it's a spiv feeding ground. A "new social housing market" - how about that for freshly-minted industry patter.

Atrocious deal for the taxpayer, and you can take it that if the shoeshine boy Hobbs trumpeting it, this is now the way of things.

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/mark-keenan-is-social-housing-set-to-become-the-new-cape-verde-37483247.html

All the Direct Provision places are to go, all refugees and economic migrants will get an own door accomadation. They will skip all current social housing lists and be immediately catered for.

I can only see the demand for this rising as government will be pressured by the NGO it (we) pay for to push us to pay for more accommodation... we pay for.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/plan-to-end-direct-provision-by-2024-would-see-asylum-seekers-housed-in-state-accommodation-1.4495389

fago · 25-03-2021 01:51PM

Hubertj wrote: »

How do prices on 2nd hand vs new home compare? With reports of significantly reduced supply of new builds due to restrictions that impacts supply. However, there are clearly a lot of people holding their property back from the market for obvious reasons. So when restrictions are lifted etc what will net impact be on supply considering price differential new v 2nd hand etc. Also am I correct in thinking that 2nd hand homes are not eligible for HTB? That would also need to be considered.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/newandexistingdwellings/

New 2% YoY, 2nd hand .02%

The pattern has been pretty consistent across the last 5 quarters.

And if we take the anecdotal stories at face value for 2nd hand, that .02 should become 2% or higher in the next 2 Qs.

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 01:56PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Journalism has got lazy and more copy and paste, you don't see much investigative journalism anymore. It's all press releases regurgitated. I just feel it is suspicious that this is news again 2 years after it was annonced.

Conspiracy theory, this maybe but do you thrust media given recent history
British media is openly labelled as either pro or nay Brexit

Irish media has always been property bubble cheerleading tool

It’s a conspiracy theory.
Do you trust media reporting on anything?

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 02:13PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Property prices are heading up globally and I think McWilliams is potentially doing people a great disservice with his distinctly questionable advice and assessments.

He sounds like people in early 2017 advising people not to buy bitcoin when it was $2K 'it's too expensive, it's not worth that, it's going to crash, you'll lose it all.'

Hes probably got some family looking to buy at the moment so using his clout to try and cool the market while they get their house in order

hometruths · 25-03-2021 02:16PM

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s a conspiracy theory.
Do you trust media reporting on anything?

whatever about conspiracy theories, in fairness he's got a point that journalism has got lazy. Whether that's by accident or design is another question!

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 02:27PM

Deleted User wrote:

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

I believe the advise was to stay out of the market until supply picks up. Covid has choked supply as vendors have been put off due to ban on viewings coupled with reduced supply of new houses
Mc believes now is the best time to get rid of the worst properties, no value, thereby advises buyers to stay out of the market

He didn't even mention the state and reits being predominant purchaser

Hulk Hands · 25-03-2021 02:43PM

Villa05 wrote: »

I believe the advise was to stay out of the market until supply picks up. Covid has choked supply as vendors have been put off due to ban on viewings coupled with reduced supply of new houses
Mc believes now is the best time to get rid of the worst properties, no value, thereby advises buyers to stay out of the market

I've said this already, there seems to be a serious amount of butthurt over his comments by people who have clearly not listened to what he actually said. With no viewings going on, houses aren't coming on-stream bar forced sells (older houses with elderly deaths). while demand is rising. Wait for this mini period to pass until viewings start and those that do want to sell start selling again, as well as construction starting again on new builds. People have seen a headline and ran with it

I say this as someone who's actively going against his advice, admittedly on a new build we're getting without the seeming 'pandemic premium' tacked on.

K.Hawksworth · 25-03-2021 02:50PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I've said this already, there seems to be a serious amount of butthurt over his comments by people who have clearly not listened to what he actually said. With no viewings going on, houses aren't coming on-stream bar forced sells (older houses with elderly deaths). while demand is rising. Wait for this mini period to pass until viewings start and those that do want to sell start selling again, as well as construction starting again on new builds. People have seen a headline and ran with it

I say this as someone who's actively going against his advice, admittedly on a new build we're getting without the seeming 'pandemic premium' tacked on.

I'm not butthurt about his comments, would just like to see some evidence backing them. Especially the highlighted part. I can see plenty of houses for sale on daft at the moment that are clearly not "older houses" or executor sales. Anecdotally also as someone who is currently selling and buying, I am generally not seeing a larger than usual number of older houses coming to market.

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 02:53PM

schmittel wrote: »

whatever about conspiracy theories, in fairness he's got a point that journalism has got lazy. Whether that's by accident or design is another question!

Couldn’t agree more. Media in this country has gotten largely lazy. The claims and promises politicians in all parties are allowed to make without proper challenge is laughable. Add in the air time the 0 covidiots get without proper interrogation and it’s embarrassing.

Monsieur Folie · 25-03-2021 02:58PM

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Personally I am looking to get out of renting, I am sick of it. I have factored in the possibility that I am potentially paying a covid premium if I move in next 6 months but if you're not looking to sell on again in the next few years it shouldn't be a huge concern, so long as the repayments are affordable.

Hopefully they bring back viewings in April to settle things down but it doesn't sound like they are planning to.

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 03:10PM

Monsieur Folie wrote: »

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Personally I am looking to get out of renting, I am sick of it. I have factored in the possibility that I am potentially paying a covid premium if I move in next 6 months but if you're not looking to sell on again in the next few years it shouldn't be a huge concern, so long as the repayments are affordable.

Hopefully they bring back viewings in April to settle things down but it doesn't sound like they are planning to.

This is the thing he flat out told people not to buy..not caution. The guy needs to see other underlining factors that all spill into the irish property market, sure he probably thinks we are still in a bubble like he spouted back in 2017.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 03:17PM

fliball123 wrote: »

This is the thing he flat out told people not to buy..not caution. The guy needs to see other underlining factors that all spill into the irish property market, sure he probably thinks we are still in a bubble like he spouted back in 2017.

Why does the fact he (or any other person) thinks now is a bad time to buy offend you so much? His comments really do seem to make you quite angry, or butthurt as HulkHands put it.

DataDude · 25-03-2021 03:18PM

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 03:24PM

schmittel wrote: »

Why does the fact he (or any other person) thinks now is a bad time to buy offend you so much? His comments really do seem to make you quite angry, or butthurt as HulkHands put it.

It doesnt, what offends me is him telling people not to buy when he is either ignoring a plethora of underlining issues that are feeding into the market currently or he lying about them. He has already been caught on a lie in his show when he said we were back in a bubble and tried to make out that a bubble can exist without easy access to cheap credit which is completely false and every bubble in history has had some form of easy access to cheap credit behind it. How can he tell the future? I think it is dangerous for someone who has gotten so much wrong recently to be saying "do not buy now" people will have a lot of other reasons to buy or sell I just hope people who listen to him don't end up like those who listened to him back in 2017 when he was singing we are back in a bubble from the rafters. Anyone who was looking to buy back then will have to pay more for that property in 2021 and would of had to pay for alternative accommodation for the 4 years. By all means he is entitled to his opinion but back it up with fact and stop ignoring fact that counters it.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 03:31PM

fliball123 wrote: »

It doesnt, what offends me is him telling people not to buy when he is either ignoring a plethora of underlining issues that are feeding into the market currently or he lying about them. He has already been caught on a lie in his show when he said we were back in a bubble and tried to make out that bubble can exist without easy access to cheap credit which completely false and every bubble in history has had some form of easy access to cheap credit behind it. How can he tell the future it I think it is dangerous for someone who has gotten so much wrong recently to be saying "do not buy now" people will have a lot of other reasons to buy or sell I just hope people who listen to him dont end up like those who listened to him back in 2017 when he was singing we are back in a bubble to the rafters. Anyone who was looking to buy back then will have to pay more for that property in 2021 and would of had to pay for alternative accommodation for the 4 years. By all means he is entitled to his opinion but back it up with fact and stop ignoring fact that counters it.

Just because prices have continued to rise does not make his opinion in 2017 wrong. It is a bit disingenuous to say he has been caught lying!

Essentially he is saying don't buy now - we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows.

It seems obviously correct that we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows. What are the facts he is ignoring?

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 03:33PM

DataDude wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 03:35PM

Monsieur Folie wrote:

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Asuuming everybody knows what's going on with the property market is naieve.

Supply is at record lows
Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public
Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

I think alot of people are not aware of all these issues. When a market is that stacked against the person's that wish to buy a home. Its best to pause and wait

The content of his podcasts needs to balanced with the target audience and purpose of his podcast which is to make economics relevant and understandable to the everyday person
He achieves that with exceptional guest speakers. This I'm sure you can see as like me you enjoy his podcast. I'm sure there are not too many people out there that looked forward to their mainstream economics class.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1