United Ireland Poll - please vote

landofthetree · 25-03-2021 12:43am

Fann Linn wrote: »

Justine McCarthy's commentary in last week's Sunday Times raised an interesting point, she said the FFG parties can condone Arlene Foster meeting Loyalist paramilitaries, can consider and listen to calls for Ireland to rejoin the Commonwealth when it was mooted by a FG TD, can approve an RIC commemoration but run a mile when a Border Poll is discussed despite it being an integral part of the Good Friday Agreement.

The people of Ireland both North and South voted in 1998 to let the British government decide when a poll happens. So what can the Irish government do? Ask for a poll? The Tories will say no. A lab gov will say no. No British PM will want to be the want to see the UK break up under their leadership.

If SF/SDLP want to put real pressure on the British to hold a poll go they need to start getting 50% of the vote in NI. They got around 40% last time if you add in PBP Aontu.

FrancieBrady · 25-03-2021 12:46am

landofthetree wrote: »

The people of Ireland both North and South voted in 1998 to let the British government decide when a poll happens. So what can the Irish government do? Ask for a poll? The Tories will say no. A lab gov will say no. No British PM will want to be the want to see the UK break up under their leadership.

Like no British PM would ever put a border in the Irish Sea?

When will Irish people learn? (I am assuming you are Irish.) The British will always do what is in their selfish interests.

Moragle · 25-03-2021 12:51am

end of the road wrote: »

yes it would ultimately have to be ignored given that it is really the NI vote that counts and our vote is just a vote for votes sake.
refusing to respect the democratic vote of northern ireland would cause very serious issues

So you're suggesting that in the case that the people of the Republic voted no to a united Ireland, this democratic vote should be ignored?

end of the road · 25-03-2021 12:54am

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The delusion belongs to those who think that rejecting a United Ireland in the south wouldn't have untold repercussions.

absolutely correct.
the reality is that the repercussions of a yes vote by NI but a no vote by the ROI will be multiples of what a UI could ever be.
voting against a UI on the basis of a belief that lives would be lost due to a UI, and that such a no vote will prevent lives being lost, is not going to work out, it's going to highly likely backfire and fail spectacularly and for what?

landofthetree · 25-03-2021 12:55am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Like no British PM would ever put a border in the Irish Sea?

When will Irish people learn? (I am assuming you are Irish.) The British will always do what is in their selfish interests.

Exactly. They will decide. The Irish government have no say. Thats my point,

end of the road · 25-03-2021 12:57am

Moragle wrote: »

So you're suggesting that in the case that the people of the Republic voted no to a united Ireland, this democratic vote should be ignored?

it would have to be, the repercussions of not respecting NI'S wish to reunify with the south would just be to dangerous most likely.

end of the road · 25-03-2021 12:58am

landofthetree wrote: »

Exactly. They will decide. The Irish government have no say. Thats my point,

the UK is going to break up regardless, if not via indi ref in scotland and a border vote for NI then by civil war.

FrancieBrady · 25-03-2021 1:04am

landofthetree wrote: »

Exactly. They will decide. The Irish government have no say. Thats my point,

The Irish government can pressure for a poll. They are equal signatories and guardians of the GFA.

Moragle · 25-03-2021 1:18am

end of the road wrote: »

it would have to be, the repercussions of not respecting NI'S wish to reunify with the south would just be to dangerous most likely.

That is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Democracy in a referendum cant just apply for one side of the border. People could vote no for other reasons than threats of violence from loyalists. There are valid economic concerns. Obviously in the event of a referendum these would have to be worked out beforehand. But you can't seriously believe that if the north voted yes and the south voted no, the decision of the part of the island with the majority of the population would just be overruled.

Zaph · 25-03-2021 1:21am

end of the road wrote: »

realistically the likely costs of NI are probably going to be less then 10000000000 at the highest rate, which is very affordable to the south.

That's 10bn, per year, you do realise that, yeah? Explain to me how that will be very affordable, because I'm at a complete loss to understand where it's going to come from. If the government had that sort of money currently available to them do you not think we'd somehow know about it by now?

end of the road · 25-03-2021 1:31am

Zaph wrote: »

That's 10bn, per year, you do realise that, yeah? Explain to me how that will be very affordable, because I'm at a complete loss to understand where it's going to come from. If the government had that sort of money currently available to them do you not think we'd somehow know about it by now?

yes, i do know it's 10000000000 a year, and i'm deliberately being high with that figure as i think it will actually be a lot less.
both belfast and derry have a lot going for them, belfast especially and reunification will in the long term lead to a very stable country as a whole meaning belfast and derry would be attractive for foreign investment in the form of jobs and all sorts which would get the costs down even further.
we will be fine, there will be a lot to work out but we will work it out and get through the issues, reunification is ultimately going to happen eventually so it's in everyone's interest to begin the process now, even if it takes a long time before it actually does happen.

Junkyard Tom · 25-03-2021 1:31am

Belfast seriously under-performs economically compared to Dublin, there is no good reason for this save for UK jurisdiction. I've little doubt that with a synchronised all-Ireland economy Belfast would easily catch up and become a net beneficiary to the Irish exchequer and greater Ulster region.

Jinglejangle69 · 25-03-2021 1:34am

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Belfast seriously under-performs economically compared to Dublin, there is no good reason for this save for UK jurisdiction. I've little doubt that with a synchronised all-Ireland economy Belfast would easily catch up and become a net beneficiary to the Irish exchequer and greater Ulster region.

Through what means?

Zaph · 25-03-2021 1:39am

end of the road wrote: »

yes, i do know it's 10000000000 a year, and i'm deliberately being high with that figure as i think it will actually be a lot less.
both belfast and derry have a lot going for them, belfast especially and reunification will in the long term lead to a very stable country as a whole meaning belfast and derry would be attractive for foreign investment in the form of jobs and all sorts which would get the costs down even further.
we will be fine, there will be a lot to work out but we will work it out and get through the issues, reunification is ultimately going to happen eventually so it's in everyone's interest to begin the process now, even if it takes a long time before it actually does happen.

And in the meantime we're shelling out up to 10bn a year until they get their sh*t together, which isn't going to happen overnight? So again I ask, where is this money coming from? It won't magically appear out of thin air just because the country reunites.

Junkyard Tom · 25-03-2021 1:42am

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Through what means?

Lowered corporation tax, the IDA working to send business that direction, good rail and road links between Dublin and Belfast, they should really be sister cities.

Rodin · 25-03-2021 1:44am

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Lowered corporation tax, the IDA working to send business that direction, good rail and road links between Dublin and Belfast, they should really be sister cities.

Would be a new east coast economic powerhouse. Very educated population in the north. Might split some jobs from Dublin and therefore drive down costs.

Samsonsmasher · 25-03-2021 1:49am

We simply would be incapable of policing Northern Ireland.
During the Troubles the British had tens of thousands of troops patrolling the streets for decades while the police were armed. There were significant numbers of undercover special forces troops and intelligence agents running spy networks on the ground.
We do not have that capability nor are we prepared to fight a counterinsurgency against both loyalists and republicans.
Loyalists would obviously want the Irish Republic out of Northern Ireland and would be very effective if they used the same tactics they used during the Troubles - target random innocent Catholics.
The republicans do not recognise the Dublin government and with the British out of the picture would be emboldened.
Southerners would have no stomach to send young men and women north to be killed so obviously northern Catholics would make up the majority of Gardai and Defence Forces in Ulster just as Protestants once were the majority of the RUC and UDR.
The character of the Gardaí and Defence Forces would be openly sectarian with collusion with republicans and sectarian murders of Protestants.
It would be a new Troubles with roles reversed with Catholics oppressing Protestants except this time Britain would have no part except perhaps covertly.

Larbre34 · 25-03-2021 1:50am

Belfast underperforms compared with Dublin because it is three decades behind Dublin in terms of economic development and diversification.

Some of that may be down to UK policies, but its mostly because of the troubles and sectarianism in commerce.

Rodin · 25-03-2021 1:54am

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

We simply would be incapable of policing Northern Ireland.
During the Troubles the British had tens of thousands of troops patrolling the streets for decades while the police were armed. There were significant numbers of undercover special forces troops and intelligence agents running spy networks on the ground.
We do not have that capability nor are we prepared to fight a counterinsurgency against both loyalists and republicans.
Loyalists would obviously want the Irish Republic out of Northern Ireland and would be very effective if they used the same tactics they used during the Troubles - target random innocent Catholics.
The republicans do not recognise the Dublin government and with the British out of the picture would be emboldened.
Southerners would have no stomach to send young men and women north to be killed so obviously northern Catholics would make the Gardai and Defence Forces just as Protestants once were the majority of the RUC and UDR.
The character of the Gardaí and Defence Forces would be openly sectarian with collusion with republicans and sectarian murders of Protestants.
It would be a new Troubles with roles reversed with Catholics oppressing Protestants except this time Britain would have no part.

This isn't Iraq.

jm08 · 25-03-2021 1:54am

Zaph wrote: »

And in the meantime we're shelling out up to 10bn a year until they get their sh*t together, which isn't going to happen overnight? So again I ask, where is this money coming from? It won't magically appear out of thin air just because the country reunites.

And in that case, when it doesn't happen overnight, the UK will still be paying the subvention and the IDA can get on the job.

It would suit the Pharma companies here already to be able to put plants in NI as they will have a good supply of labour and then they will have all the advantages of dealing with one Gov, a couple of universities/labour supply.All the advantages that the ROI has at the moment.

Samsonsmasher · 25-03-2021 2:03am

Rodin wrote: »

This isn't Iraq.

No it's Ireland and there has been conflict here since the 12th century.

Zaph · 25-03-2021 2:09am

jm08 wrote: »

And in that case, when it doesn't happen overnight, the UK will still be paying the subvention

And why exactly, outside of their commitments to pensions, would they want to do that if it's no longer part of the UK? Seriously, when it comes to the economic side of things there's nothing more than wishful thinking and pie in the sky blanket statements on this thread. Even being optimistic and saying that somehow NI could stand on its own two feet, economically speaking, within a decade of reunification, that's still an awful lot of money that the Irish government will have to find to keep them going in the meantime. We simply don't have that money, if we did don't you think we'd have a shiny new metro system in Dublin, or high quality rail connections throughout the country, etc.?

purplepanda · 25-03-2021 2:38am

A proper Federal Union of Ireland, more devolved power to the provinces & regions / GDA. With membership of NATO combined with a proper Defence budget similar to other European nations have & a referendum regarding membership of the Commonwealth.

I don't think the British government will agree to an All Ireland state without their defence, strategic & geopolitical concerns being addressed. Any United Ireland would be more closer aligned in it's relations to Great Britain.

A eventual United Ireland would be under serious pressure to more closely align itself to the EU, United States & Great Britain / Rest of UK. That would be expected for the overseas investment & planning which eventually contributes to bringing about a new Irish political settlement.

Any extension of the current centralised government jurisdiction to include N.I. would be a disaster, the project needs a complete re-design to be viable.

Germany got the support of their Allies, neighboring nations & the international community to bring about a United Germany, a United Ireland will also require the same process.

maestroamado · 25-03-2021 5:12am

Zaph wrote: »

And why exactly, outside of their commitments to pensions, would they want to do that if it's no longer part of the UK? Seriously, when it comes to the economic side of things there's nothing more than wishful thinking and pie in the sky blanket statements on this thread. Even being optimistic and saying that somehow NI could stand on its own two feet, economically speaking, within a decade of reunification, that's still an awful lot of money that the Irish government will have to find to keep them going in the meantime. We simply don't have that money, if we did don't you think we'd have a shiny new metro system in Dublin, or high quality rail connections throughout the country, etc.?[/QUOTE

The reason we do not have what you mention is our public service bill way too high.

MOH · 25-03-2021 5:41am

Rodin wrote: »

This isn't Iraq.

No. This was long before Iraq.

maestroamado · 25-03-2021 8:16am

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

We simply would be incapable of policing Northern Ireland.
During the Troubles the British had tens of thousands of troops patrolling the streets for decades while the police were armed. There were significant numbers of undercover special forces troops and intelligence agents running spy networks on the ground.
We do not have that capability nor are we prepared to fight a counterinsurgency against both loyalists and republicans.
Loyalists would obviously want the Irish Republic out of Northern Ireland and would be very effective if they used the same tactics they used during the Troubles - target random innocent Catholics.
The republicans do not recognise the Dublin government and with the British out of the picture would be emboldened.
Southerners would have no stomach to send young men and women north to be killed so obviously northern Catholics would make up the majority of Gardai and Defence Forces in Ulster just as Protestants once were the majority of the RUC and UDR.
The character of the Gardaí and Defence Forces would be openly sectarian with collusion with republicans and sectarian murders of Protestants.
It would be a new Troubles with roles reversed with Catholics oppressing Protestants except this time Britain would have no part except perhaps covertly.

The Gardai would sort it out, sure commissioner has experienced there...

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 8:33am

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Peacefully. But not successfully. The East German states are still economically on life support dependent on outside investment and public sector jobs. Very like Northern Ireland actually.

And it cost West German taxpayers about €2 trillion euro, with a 5% "solidarity tax" on every pay cheque. How do people feel about paying an additional 5% or 10% of their wages in tax for the North?

It wouldnt be a solidarity tax here.
It would be disguised as an environmental tax of 10% of your salary

And only middle income payers would be paying it.

BanditLuke · 25-03-2021 8:38am

It's happening sooner rather than later. Time for the Unionists to jog on.

Fann Linn · 25-03-2021 8:42am

FF TD now looking for new Junior Minister position to be appointed for Border Poll/ Reunification portfolio. Always late to the party in fairness but at least it's being discussed.

For Forks Sake · 25-03-2021 8:54am

maestroamado wrote: »

The Gardai would sort it out, sure commissioner has experienced there...

I'd say Drew Harris will be long since retired before such a situation arises.

United Ireland Poll - please vote

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