2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123 wrote: »

I still dont see the gap closing anyone selling will surely also have to buy so its a zero sum game when things open back up and it comes to the supply/demand dynamic. The only way this will shift is if they get new builds going back and built very quickly.

Whilst people looking to trade up or down will be a zero sum game, the market dynamics will still change. If there are 17000 buying units versus 14000 properties available and then 3000 traders enter, the absolute shortage is still the same but in relative terms the shortage drops (20000 buyers and 17000 properties in this example). No idea how many people buy or sell or trade up in a given year.

The landlords who are looking to offload investment properties will also be able to enter the market as they've been unable to serve notice to tenants on the grounds of sale due to Covid restrictions.

The numbers on myhome have now fallen below 12000. I wonder can we get as low as 8000.

DFt and myhome must really be hurting at this stage. Irish Times in particular needs the property porn revenue to fund its excellent pensions.

It is a fantastic time to sell a property.

Deleted User wrote: »

Has it really been that hard to view properties? I bought a rural cottage in February and had no problems travelling out west to view a couple of times. My experience was no different to pre-COVID

you cannot view in person at the moment - it's ridiculous. A couple of houses we are interested in have come up. We email the EA. Standard respons 'Due to covid restrictions we are unable to provide viewings' :rolleyes:

Browney7 wrote: »

Whilst people looking to trade up or down will be a zero sum game, the market dynamics will still change. If there are 17000 buying units versus 14000 properties available and then 3000 traders enter, the absolute shortage is still the same but in relative terms the shortage drops (20000 buyers and 17000 properties in this example). No idea how many people buy or sell or trade up in a given year.

The landlords who are looking to offload investment properties will also be able to enter the market as they've been unable to serve notice to tenants on the grounds of sale due to Covid restrictions.

In your first paragraph the gap is still the same relative or absolute and in your second paragraph the tenants who have just been evicted then needs somewhere to live so they either leave the country, rent somewhere else, buy somewhere else or get accommodated by the state so once again a property is available and another property is needed unless the renter is leaving Ireland and would you take that risk currently We have possibly one of the best rates of social welfare benefits when compared globally in the world there to help you out would you be leaving Ireland when the globe is still suffering from Covid. The only real way to fix the current problem is by building or if Props is to be believed get the 100k properties including rooms over the shops into play.

fliball123 wrote: »

In your first paragraph the gap is still the same relative or absolute and in your second paragraph the tenants who have just been evicted then needs somewhere to live so they either leave the country, rent somewhere else, buy somewhere else or get accommodated by the state so once again a property is available and another property is needed unless the renter is leaving Ireland and would you take that risk currently We have possibly one of the best rates of social welfare benefits when compared globally in the world there to help you out would you be leaving Ireland when the globe is still suffering from Covid. The only real way to fix the current problem is by building or if Props is to be believed get the 100k properties including rooms over the shops into play.

The shortage is 3000 in both scenarios. As a percentage of the buying units, 3000/14000 = 21.4% shortage, 3000/17000 = 17.6% shortage.

If you think 20000 units chasing 17000 units is the same market dynamic as 17000 buyers chasing 14000 units you're entitled to your view but I don't believe it to be the same.

Rental market is up in a heap, people have stopped renting and moved home, people have left the country, people have returned to the country, people are not paying rent or accruing arrears, others are unaffected. There will be a lot of dust to settle in Q3 in my view

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

Doesn't change the fact that the guidance is that viewings shouldn't taken place until a house is sale agreed, and that most estate agents have been abiding by this which has led to the crazy bidding wars to get 'first preference' on viewing.

The guidance is a nonsense and one of the best ever examples of rules were meant to be broken. Mind bending nonsense.

Deleted User wrote: »

If this is going to be your home, in which you will build a life, rather than be purely an investment, then IMO you need to change your mindset. It’s potential as your home, as compared to other places you are seeing in the market, is more important than whether it’s €20k above some ‘market’ price. And if its within your borrowing capacity, then €20k will be barely noticeable on your monthly payments.

If it’s something you see yourself flipping in the next few years, then it’s obviously a different calculation

I just paid 25% above asking for a place after a crazy bidding war. But because I want it, and I see a life there, I don’t care what the supposed ‘market’ is at

And that is how house prices rise

Deleted User wrote: »

I understand that. But if I have found a place that can be my home, then the price against the market, at least for me, is very much a secondary consideration (as long as is affordable). Evidenced by me paying 25% above asking for a rural property recently.

Would obviously be different if I was an investor or anticipated wanted to sell in the next few years and make a profit.

I dont blame you.
Im just pointing out that that is exactly why prices rise.
People see a house, like it and will pay more than the next person.
The price floor increases for the area.


This is how it should be. Problem in Ireland is you have REITs and councils with endless money supplies squeezing up the ordinary buyer.

It is a sellers market out there. Only someone with deep pockets and no money memory should consider buying.

Thank goodness for central bank loan limits or we would be off the scale in house prices.

I can see a bigger fall in supply coming. People are sitting tight.

TobyHolmes wrote: »

good. someone with some sense. i understand everyone's need to buy at the moment. believe me. i understand.
it just doesnt make sense though at the moment.

sit tight is right and stockpile your money. watch it grow and dont give it to the banks. anyone with a mortgage doesnt really own anything by the way. the bank owns it till you pay it off. but your cash - thats all yours.

What would get me is coming home every evening to a property which I had paid more for than any of my neighbours.

That house would become an object of hate if a fall comes our way.

One thing is sure....the current situation is abnormal. The housing market is broken.