2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Graham · 22-03-2021 11:02AM

Hubertj wrote: »

Was this now in relation to people bidding on property in Kerry - holiday homes etc? There was something in the examiner about people from overseas virtually viewing and bidding on homes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/residential/arid-40246703.html

Not sure holiday homes in Kerry make for a particularly representative sample Hubertj, at the same time I'm not surprised to hear demand for holiday homes in Kerry has increased.

Cyrus · 22-03-2021 11:11AM

DataDude wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490118

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenbank-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490119

Two identical sized houses, similar plots, same road, same estate agent, put up same day.

Seems a remarkably high premium of €400k for the refurbed one, especially given the C3 BER? The cheaper one is also a better location I think. Am I missing something?

i think you would have a better product if you put 4-500k in the cheaper one for sure, but it would cost all of that and some people just dont want the hassle or are better able to borrow that money than have it available for a renovation out of their own pocket.

fliball123 · 22-03-2021 11:12AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

We paid a smidgeon under 8 billion in interest last year (2020) and are projected to pay over 7 billion in each year over the next 4 years.

10% of our tax revenue- is going on servicing debt (assuming revenue of circa 80 billion).

Rates may be low- but we're not in a good place if we are hemorrhaging this level of revenue purely on funding debt.

By the way- we got off a 750m bond at -0.58% this week- notwithstanding this- we will be spending circa 22 billion more than our income in 2021.

I know its Covid time and everything- but seriously, our finances are so far out of kilter that they're just not funny.

So its come down by 1 billion even do we have borrowed more

DataDude · 22-03-2021 11:29AM

Cyrus wrote: »

i think you would have a better product if you put 4-500k in the cheaper one for sure, but it would cost all of that and some people just dont want the hassle or are better able to borrow that money than have it available for a renovation out of their own pocket.

Are you factoring in an extension as well as retrofit for €500k? I always had approx. €1750 - €2000 per sqm for a very high end retrofit from RENOVA or someone similar.

A project actually kinda suits us to some degree, so that one might be runner. As only two of us currently we don't need the space currently and could borrow refurb money from family as we needed it.

Just noticed there is probably room for a second house on the site (and it's mentioned in the description). Assume that means it'll blow through asking price if a developer can put a €600k house in a postage stamp to the side of it.

Cyrus · 22-03-2021 11:43AM

DataDude wrote: »

Are you factoring in an extension as well as retrofit for €500k? I always had approx. €1750 - €2000 per sqm for a very high end retrofit from RENOVA or someone similar.

A project actually kinda suits us to some degree, so that one might be runner. As only two of us currently we don't need the space currently and could borrow refurb money from family as we needed it.

Just noticed there is probably room for a second house on the site (and it's mentioned in the description). Assume that means it'll blow through asking price if a developer can put a €600k house in a postage stamp to the side of it.

yes i was going with say 200 sqm for the finished house at 2.5k per sqm to include extension and retrofit of existing, id guess its not that far out.

you are in an ideal scenario in that regard, no kids, access to the funds to do it, and it will be a fun project (well as fun as it can be but the two of you should enjoy it!)

that said, if i was buying at 850k id prefer the sandycove house (location only) to stradbrook road personally.

Woshy · 22-03-2021 11:50AM

Graham wrote: »

I'd want to confirm that €120k over average figure before setting the outrage-o-meter to full.

It's from an article in The Journal https://www.thejournal.ie/impact-of-pandemic-on-house-prices-in-ireland-5384503-Mar2021/

It says one property went for 120K over asking and others are going over asking but for a lower amount.

We signed contracts on our house a few days after we went into lockdown in March 2020 (we went sale agreed in February). Plenty of people (including some on this forum) told us things were very uncertain (which is fair enough) and house prices would drop with people out of work due to the pandemic and we should pull out and look again at another stage. I'm so grateful we didn't.

fliball123 · 22-03-2021 11:54AM

Woshy wrote: »

It's from an article in The Journal https://www.thejournal.ie/impact-of-pandemic-on-house-prices-in-ireland-5384503-Mar2021/

It says one property went for 120K over asking and others are going over asking but for a lower amount.

We signed contracts on our house a few days after we went into lockdown in March 2020 (we went sale agreed in February). Plenty of people (including some on this forum) told us things were very uncertain (which is fair enough) and house prices would drop with people out of work due to the pandemic and we should pull out and look again at another stage. I'm so grateful we didn't.

Anyone taking advice on property from here needs their head examined.

Woshy · 22-03-2021 11:55AM

fliball123 wrote: »

Anyone taking advice on property from here needs their head examined.

Definitely - take everything with a massive heaping of salt.

DataDude · 22-03-2021 12:55PM

Cyrus wrote: »

yes i was going with say 200 sqm for the finished house at 2.5k per sqm to include extension and retrofit of existing, id guess its not that far out.

you are in an ideal scenario in that regard, no kids, access to the funds to do it, and it will be a fun project (well as fun as it can be but the two of you should enjoy it!)

that said, if i was buying at 850k id prefer the sandycove house (location only) to stradbrook road personally.

Would also much prefer Sandycove location but given the additional amount that needs to be spent on the house, don’t like exterior of Sandycove house and the straight east garden aspect - there are pros&cons to both!

Cyrus · 22-03-2021 01:09PM

DataDude wrote: »

Would also much prefer Sandycove location but given the additional amount that needs to be spent on the house, don’t like exterior of Sandycove house and the straight east garden aspect - there are pros&cons to both!

sorry i forgot about the aspect, good point, i think the exterior you could work with, if you were doing a full job you can remodel that, but aspect you cant change unfortunately.

Timing belt · 22-03-2021 07:56PM

Central bank saying that tax increases will be required...

https://m.independent.ie/business/budget/taxes-will-have-to-rise-to-fund-extra-services-warns-central-bank-40225896.html

cnocbui · 22-03-2021 08:21PM

The government increased taxes dramatically in response to the bank crisis and the GFC - VAT increased to 23%, USC which was supposed to be a temporary measure.

I can't wait to do my bit with this new lot of permanent temporary tax increases, while watching REITS get slugged with none.

beaufoy · 22-03-2021 08:33PM

Woshy wrote: »

Definitely - take everything with a massive heaping of salt.

I suggest most people giving advice either on purpose or by way of no knowledge give the wrong advice. Having said that I will now give my advice. Said advice comes from a person who I would suggest is the most qualified person in Ireland.
Prices will bounce around whilst lock down is on. Then straight after lock down prices will increase by way of people waiting till the end of lock-down before they buy. Then after said spike occurs prices will fall

Mic 1972 · 22-03-2021 08:56PM

beaufoy wrote: »

I suggest most people giving advice either on purpose or by way of no knowledge give the wrong advice. Having said that I will now give my advice. Said advice comes from a person who I would suggest is the most qualified person in Ireland.
Prices will bounce around whilst lock down is on. Then straight after lock down prices will increase by way of people waiting till the end of lock-down before they buy. Then after said spike occurs prices will fall

I don't think anyone who wants to buy is holding back, as the market is pretty much open and very active
Prices have been sky rocketing for the last few months now. Viewings are taking place with due restrictions, the process is very fast. You have to be able to bid high right away because EAs gather initial offers, then arrange one viewing for each bidder, then they do a final round of offers and that's it.

Hubertj · 22-03-2021 09:27PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Central bank saying that tax increases will be required...

https://m.independent.ie/business/budget/taxes-will-have-to-rise-to-fund-extra-services-warns-central-bank-40225896.html

I think this is stating the obvious. I believe the only questions are the nature of the taxes that will be introduced, when and the type of phasing. I think any tax increases also need to consider a review of public expenditure. Why does the report only mention tax increases and not by delivering efficiencies in expenditure?

I think there is a couple of billion in savings on health alone - as In better use of funds, not cutbacks. There might even be a couple of euro to save in the provision of housing.

hometruths · 22-03-2021 09:31PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I think this is stating the obvious. I believe the only questions are the nature of the taxes that will be introduced, when and the type of phasing. I think any tax increases also need to consider a review of public expenditure. Why does the report only mention tax increases and not by delivering efficiencies in expenditure?

I think there is a couple of billion in savings on health alone - as In better use of funds, not cutbacks. There might even be a couple of euro to save in the provision of housing.

I agree with you that these are the two areas where the most fat can be cut off, but they're also the two most politically sensitive.

I can't see govt saying "We're going to cut health and housing budgets in aftermath of pandemic and midst of housing crisis." The opposition will have a field day.

Hubertj · 22-03-2021 09:34PM

schmittel wrote: »

I agree with you that these are the two areas where the most fat can be cut off, but they're also the two most politically sensitive.

I can't see govt saying "We're going to cut health and housing budgets in aftermath of pandemic and midst of housing crisis." The opposition will have a field day.

Agree 100% but I’m really referring to better procurement- renewing various contracts for sale or improved services but at better commercial terms. Imagine the good PR that would be?!?

Unfortunately public servants have consistently demonstrated they do not possess the competence or inclination to do so.

hometruths · 22-03-2021 09:40PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Agree 100% but I’m really referring to better procurement- renewing various contracts for sale or improved services but at better commercial terms. Imagine the good PR that would be?!?

Unfortunately public servants have consistently demonstrated they do not possess the competence or inclination to do so.

Fair point. Have a vague memory that this was the sort of drum Stephen Donnelly was banging way back when he was a Social Democrat, and before he started warning us about the dangers of trampolines.

I remember thinking he seemed like he might make a refreshing change and it was a shame he was not likely to become a minister.

I was wrong about that.

Hubertj · 22-03-2021 09:54PM

schmittel wrote: »

Fair point. Have a vague memory that this was the sort of drum Stephen Donnelly was banging way back when he was a Social Democrat, and before he started warning us about the dangers of trampolines.

I remember thinking he seemed like he might make a refreshing change and it was a shame he was not likely to become a minister.

I was wrong about that.

Yep, talk is cheap when you’re not the 1 having to make the decisions... he’d be still banging the same drum and sounding credible if he remained an SD....

22-03-2021 09:57PM

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

cnocbui · 22-03-2021 10:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

Seems easy enough to me - get a brown paper bag and then tell a few people quitly that you have one and soon you'll find it filled, as if by magic. Just make sure you have the world's harshest libel laws first, though.

PropQueries · 22-03-2021 10:45PM

schmittel wrote: »

I agree with you that these are the two areas where the most fat can be cut off, but they're also the two most politically sensitive.

I can't see govt saying "We're going to cut health and housing budgets in aftermath of pandemic and midst of housing crisis." The opposition will have a field day.

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

In relation to health. That budget will be increasing for the next several years as they must deal with the backlog of appointments, operations etc. that have built up over the past 12 months on top of the record or near record waiting lists they existed back in January 2020 IMO

Even with efficiencies etc. there’s no possible savings in health IMO

thefridge2006 · 22-03-2021 10:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

Donnelly is that you??? if so you and your pals are a disgrace

hometruths · 22-03-2021 10:54PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

I wish I shared your optimism!

Timing belt · 23-03-2021 01:30AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

In relation to health. That budget will be increasing for the next several years as they must deal with the backlog of appointments, operations etc. that have built up over the past 12 months on top of the record or near record waiting lists they existed back in January 2020 IMO

Even with efficiencies etc. there’s no possible savings in health IMO

If you look at the money raised by the bond issuance and start looking at where it was used at least 50% of it must have gone into health and policing and that's what taxes will need to be raised for to be able to keep paying for it into the future. Most people will automatically blame any tax increase on PUP but if that is a one off during the crisis then it is a lot easier to manage than increasing the health and policing budget for the ongoing future. Add on top of that HAP growing year on year and you have a very toxic situation. In my opinion it is a pity that the PD's no longer exist because you need someone like them to control FF/FG spending.

cnocbui · 23-03-2021 03:25AM

The NZ government just announced some measures to tackle affordability of property for FTBs. Disallowing the deduction of interest payments is a big gutsy move.

will be extended from five to 10 years, meaning profits from the sale of property within 10 years of buying it could be hit with a tax of up to 39 per cent (actually a persons marginal rate).

The income caps for the Government’s First Home Grants and First Home Loans will also be raised, allowing more potential first home buyers to access Government help with mortgages.

any investor settling on a property after Saturday will not be able to write off their interest costs against the tax on their rental income.

if you acquired a property before March 27 2021, you can still claim interest on pre-existing loans as an expense against your residential property income, but this will be phased out over the next five tax years.

$3.8b put into a Housing Acceleration Fund aimed at enabling thousands of new homes by footing the bill for pipes and new roads to support housing development

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300259389/housing-government-to-double-brightline-test-and-end-interest-writeoff-in-war-on-property-speculation-will-spend-38b-on-new-supply

PropQueries · 23-03-2021 08:51AM

Timing belt wrote: »

If you look at the money raised by the bond issuance and start looking at where it was used at least 50% of it must have gone into health and policing and that's what taxes will need to be raised for to be able to keep paying for it into the future. Most people will automatically blame any tax increase on PUP but if that is a one off during the crisis then it is a lot easier to manage than increasing the health and policing budget for the ongoing future. Add on top of that HAP growing year on year and you have a very toxic situation. In my opinion it is a pity that the PD's no longer exist because you need someone like them to control FF/FG spending.

True about the PDs.

But, I guess my expected €10k annual tax (based on 5% on €200k value similar to Washington D.C. vacant homes tax) on second homes isn't looking so out-there now?

Not many realise that the taxation of immovable assets (e.g. property, pensions, inheritance taxes etc.) has already been seriously debated over the past few years (here and worldwide) and is now actually near enough debated out and is now mainstream thinking IMO

We're not left with many alternatives IMO

Sweet.Science · 23-03-2021 11:44AM

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Graham · 23-03-2021 11:46AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

I'd expect to see a bump in the number of properties and the number of buyers.

fliball123 · 23-03-2021 11:51AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Graham wrote: »

I'd expect to see a bump in the number of properties and the number of buyers.

I still dont see the gap closing anyone selling will surely also have to buy so its a zero sum game when things open back up and it comes to the supply/demand dynamic. The only way this will shift is if they get new builds going back and built very quickly.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1