2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

enricoh

Gradius wrote: »

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.

I really hope some officials are getting serious backhanders out of these deals! It's about the only reason they should be signing up to them! It's a complete get out of jail card for developers, no one else was gonna buy them but we'll give you full whack anyway! Just lob in on the national debt - sorted!

tommyombomb

enricoh wrote: »

I really hope some officials are getting serious backhanders out of these deals! It's about the only reason they should be signing up to them! It's a complete get out of jail card for developers, no one else was gonna buy them but we'll give you full whack anyway! Just lob in on the national debt - sorted!

What gets me is that no journalist has done a proper article on this. Assume the gen public wouldnt be too impressed

Also nearly have more respect if back handers were given for these deals as otherwise they are total morons and the public is worse for letting it, myself included

bilbot79

Gradius wrote: »

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum. You're so f'in stupid it's famous, the word on your stupidity has spread around.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

Villa05

bilbot79 wrote:

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

Are many people aware this is going on. Irish media is wall to wall covid

What's going on is outright robbery

SmokyMo

Nothing will change unless there is serious campaign to take to the streets.
A lot of politicians and people attached to that industry, civil servants including, are making load of money and quite happy with way things are.

PropQueries

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PropQueries

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Gradius

bilbot79 wrote: »

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

In the midst of a global pandemic property costs have remained practically untouched despite the severe blows to employment, business, productivity, you name it. Does that make sense??

World war 3? Alien invasion? No, nothing stops Irish people paying through the arse, nothing.

It's the mythical golden goose, the rest of the world wants a piece of the action, and the government's are more than willing to sell the goose at a discounted price. The docility of the Irish person is shameful, to be honest.

Ireland is the new frontier, the wild west and they're tripping over themselves to lay their claims and take advantage of the suckers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFrVoG-edFc

Villa05

bilbot79 wrote:

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

It makes sense if you are the dominant player through government policy of taxing private landlords out of existence so the competition is chased out or heavily handicapped.

A large part of your income is derived from long term state guaranteed leases so by restricting supply you are controlling price thereby maintaining upward trajectory in inflation, rents and revenues. Your assets are valued at potential return so leaving them empty makes business sense

You pay little or no tax on profits so in effect like most public private partnerships, taxpayers money is gifted to private enterprise

Who pays for all this
Your children through rent gouging
The taxpayer
The economy through loss of competiveness
The nation through unsustainable debt

All this is achieved through our own government s policy. It is truly incredible that a government would enact such policy that is so stacked against a country and its citizens and economy

And when they are called out about it all we hear on this forum is

Look over there it's SF, they'll bankrupt the country. I'm leaving

Gradius

Villa05 wrote: »

It makes sense if you are the dominant player through government policy of taxing private landlords out of existence so the competition is chased out or heavily handicapped.

A large part of your income is derived from long term state guaranteed leases so by restricting supply you are controlling price thereby maintaining upward trajectory in inflation, rents and revenues. Your assets are valued at potential return so leaving them empty makes business sense

You pay little or no tax on profits so in effect like most public private partnerships, taxpayers money is gifted to private enterprise

Who pays for all this
Your children through rent gouging
The taxpayer
The economy through loss of competiveness
The nation through unsustainable debt

All this is achieved through our own government s policy. It is truly incredible that a government would enact such policy that is so stacked against a country and its citizens and economy

And when they are called out about it all we hear on this forum is

Look over there it's SF, they'll bankrupt the country. I'm leaving

I genuinely think the majority of Irish people are cowed through lack of information, or worse, half-information. If information on the state of the country were to be publicly disseminated I don't think people would be so friendly and accepting.

Tangentially, there was a segment on the RTE news about the struggles of the Fota Island facility in Cork. What isn't publicised is that it cost 90 million to develop, and was then sold for 20 million to Chinese by NAMA.

The news networks will tell you regularly about the suffering cost of the pandemic pup payments. They don't disclose that 25% of those payments are given to non-irish people.

Same with a lot of these building developments, the costs will be trumpeted until the end of time, but barely a whisper of who is profiting and who will eventually pay. The new children's hospital, anyone? That estate of houses, that block of apartments, that sewer system, that energy plant, that wing of that hospital...

What about the investor Visa's where you essentially pay for citizenship then get to claw back that investment?




It's too easy to say these things have nothing to do with property costs, but the simple fact of the matter is that they have everything to do with it. Business is business and financial realities exist, and then there's the line crossed into stuff being sold wholesale to entities with a direct interest in getting maximum profit left, right and center. The sale of social housing is perhaps a new low. Are people aware? No, I don't think so. That's not an accident.

It's so farcical you may as well lean in to the joke fully, "they live" all right

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLQ2d89vCiw

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

... I'm leaving

Very sensible, it's the only practical solution in the face of a government that is committed to selling out it's own populace to profit foreign 0.01 percenters behind REITs.

Apoapsis Rex

Villa05 wrote: »

Are many people aware this is going on. Irish media is wall to wall covid

What's going on is outright robbery

Anyone aware is being branded a conspiracy theorist as what is happening seems to allign with the Great reset plans that the world economic Forum has advertised on their website and mentioned in meetings with World leaders (all available to view online).

They propose that people will rent everything. Not just accommodation.
Wait for news that private construction will be kept closed on April 5th...

Marius34

bilbot79 wrote: »

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

There is one missing peace to make some sense for Landlords not to reduce drastically Rental price during Covid in City Center.
"A Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) is a designated electoral area where rents can only be increased by up to 4% annually."

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

In the midst of a global pandemic property costs have remained practically untouched despite the severe blows to employment, business, productivity, you name it. Does that make sense??

World war 3? Alien invasion? No, nothing stops Irish people paying through the arse, nothing.

It's the mythical golden goose, the rest of the world wants a piece of the action, and the government's are more than willing to sell the goose at a discounted price. The docility of the Irish person is shameful, to be honest.

Ireland is the new frontier, the wild west and they're tripping over themselves to lay their claims and take advantage of the suckers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFrVoG-edFc

I can’t remember where I read or saw it, perhaps one of the experts on here posted the article but prices actually increased significantly in some Europe countries last year. Such a disconnect from reality. It’s a systemic issue and not just down to government policy (contributory factor)

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I can’t remember where I read or saw it, perhaps one of the experts on here posted the article but prices actually increased significantly in some Europe countries last year. Such a disconnect from reality. It’s a systemic issue and not just down to government policy (contributory factor)

Systemic global issue, yes
Government policy issue, major yes, cannot argue otherwise imo

As was the last crash.

Do we put contingency plans in place to protect against global issues or do we go all in and add considerably to those issues

Mad_maxx

i think things are going the way of the likes of NZ and that property is going to get a good bit more expensive , its difficult to find a western country in 2021 where housing is not very expensive bar Berlin which is an outlier in Germany

Gradius

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i think things are going the way of the likes of NZ and that property is going to get a good bit more expensive , its difficult to find a western country in 2021 where housing is not very expensive bar Berlin which is an outlier in Germany

I think a lot of these irrational price increases are due to outside influences. Underhand stuff that's kept more or less hush-hush.

You hear of Toronto regularly with it's empty apartment buildings, bought by foreign investors, while locals are gouged on the daily, thus beginning the cycle of non-ownership/no ability to ever own/social dissolution.

Increasingly I see no reason to honour such purchases that are directly detrimental to a nation. Pieces of paper can be written upon just as quickly as they can be burned.

And if there's no appetite from government's to serve the people's interests, if there's no recourse or possibility to improve the lives of a country, there are many other inflammatory actions to be taken.

The details of who owns what and where are all obtainable.

Let the prices continue to climb and climb. Why not have a 1 bedroom apartment cost 200 million euro? It's just as attainable as 10 million, or 800k. Watch the natural reaction take its course too.

PropQueries

Gradius wrote: »

I think a lot of these irrational price increases are due to outside influences. Underhand stuff that's kept more or less hush-hush.

You hear of Toronto regularly with it's empty apartment buildings, bought by foreign investors, while locals are gouged on the daily, thus beginning the cycle of non-ownership/no ability to ever own/social dissolution.

Increasingly I see no reason to honour such purchases that are directly detrimental to a nation. Pieces of paper can be written upon just as quickly as they can be burned.

And if there's no appetite from government's to serve the people's interests, if there's no recourse or possibility to improve the lives of a country, there are many other inflammatory actions to be taken.

The details of who owns what and where are all obtainable.

Let the prices continue to climb and climb. Why not have a 1 bedroom apartment cost 200 million euro? It's just as attainable as 10 million, or 800k. Watch the natural reaction take its course too.

I don't think it's as conspiratorial as all that.

In my opinion, it's more due to the globalisation of finance and that large funds can invest in any country and in any asset class. This may actually be the cure as these funds exit or decide to invest in other asset classes.

In fairness to many of them, they did build and they would have most likely sold or rented the completed units to the regular public as much lower prices/rents if the state didn't enter the fray and see them as the solution to solving their housing waiting list problem.

If the state pulls back, these funds will lower their pricing expectations quite quickly and their exit may actually benefit the next generation of buyers IMO

There have been many media reports of these funds entering into long-term leases with the local councils and then selling them on so this process is already in train IMO

The only unknown is when the state will pull back and I'm banking on around mid-2021 IMO

Mic 1972

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

Prices are not going to fall anytime soon, whoever has been trying to buy in the last couple of years things have gone mental, less and less properties available, insane bidding wars.
Investors will pay any price at the moment

Gradius

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think it's as conspiratorial as all that.

In my opinion, it's more due to the globalisation of finance and that large funds can invest in any country and in any asset class. This may actually be the cure as these funds exit or decide to invest in other asset classes.

In fairness to many of them, they did build and they would have most likely sold or rented the completed units to the regular public as much lower prices/rents if the state didn't enter the fray and see them as the solution to solving their housing waiting list problem.

If the state pulls back, these funds will lower their pricing expectations quite quickly and their exit may actually benefit the next generation of buyers IMO

There have been many media reports of these funds entering into long-term leases with the local councils and then selling them on so this process is already in train IMO

The only unknown is when the state will pull back and I'm banking on around mid-2021 IMO

I do think there's an underhanded nature to this stuff, in so much as that it would go down like a lead balloon with the public if it were widely known.

For all the crying about expenses and lack of sufficient building by the media, the first hand experience of people at the coalface of bidding wars and excessive rents....pointing out that vulture funds and foreign interests are the competition and that they are specifically here to propagate outrageous prices is suspiciously quiet.

It would be incorrect to label it as a "conspiracy", it's more apt to call it the inevitable result of antagonistic forces overlapping. Like sending a crowd of drunken fools into a building filled with dynamite and detonators: they mightn't intend to blow themselves to pieces, but that will be the result nonetheless.

As for the government pulling back, these interests that now have a solid foothold are directly opposed to anything other than maximisation of profit. This country has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that property prices will be protected/pumped no matter what.

That's what these investors are here for, guaranteed returns from the golden goose of Irish people. They're not going to call it quits and sell the golden goose.

So, what do you do?

Gradius

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Prices are not going to fall anytime soon, whoever has been trying to buy in the last couple of years things have gone mental, less and less properties available, insane bidding wars.
Investors will pay any price at the moment

As someone pointed out, a woman was trying to buy a home and was outbid by the government, essentially. The government will then turn around to raise money by taxing this woman. So, bidding against herself.

Then, the cherry on top, they'll potentially sell this property to a vested entity whose sole purpose is to extract as much rent as possible. Or with equal chance, gift it to some migrant family that arrived off the last Ryanair flight.

It's like an assault from all sides on the average person thats supposed to benefit from having a country, crazy concept that its becoming

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

As someone pointed out, a woman was trying to buy a home and was outbid by the government, essentially. The government will then turn around to raise money by taxing this woman. So, bidding against herself.

Then, the cherry on top, they'll potentially sell this property to a vested entity whose sole purpose is to extract as much rent as possible. Or with equal chance, gift it to some migrant family that arrived off the last Ryanair flight.

It's like an assault from all sides on the average person thats supposed to benefit from having a country, crazy concept that its becoming

Is there something wrong with “migrants”?

Gradius

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there something wrong with “migrants”?

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Cyrus

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

And there it is

L1011

Gradius is not to post in this thread again based on that selection of incendiary and worthless posts.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

And there it is

Well, when you've a "supposedly" limited resource, that's expected. Just look at the EU and their threats at an export ban on vaccines.

The Government should (and can IMO) resolve this current housing "shortage" immediately as it's the only way to stop these viewpoints taking hold. But labeling people with such views instead of providing plausible and timely solutions may make liberals etc. "feel good", but it will just drive people with such views further to the right and increase their base IMO

jill_valentine

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

The issue is not, by any means, some overpopulation scarcity.

If we have a significant supply of housing that nobody can live in - which we do, the exact figures are arguable, but there is absolutely no denying a ton of units are sitting idle in Grand Canal, there are whole blocks of student units sitting dark, and there is brownfield land all over Dublin growing dandilions - then decisions have been made to artificially lever the market, regardless of how many people vs places there are.

The scarcity then is artificial. And the reality is, it doesn't really matter how many people live here if the scarcity is artificial. The scarcity has been engineered - if the conditions change, it will simply be re engineered again to make sure the outcome's the same.

It is not an issue of supply and demand when supply is being kept out of reach strategically. If we launched every non-Irish born resident off the island tomorrow then, we would not suddenly solve the homelesness issue. The goalposts would just be quietly moved again.

Blaming migration is a distraction. A likely scapegoat, but a distraction. Like arguing about the other guy at the table over card counting when the casino pays in counterfeit cash.

Edit- apologies, didn't see the mod note.

ExMachina1000

jill_valentine wrote: »

The issue is not, by any means, some overpopulation scarcity.

If we have a significant supply of housing that nobody can live in - which we do, the exact figures are arguable, but there is absolutely no denying a ton of units are sitting idle in Grand Canal, there are whole blocks of student units sitting dark, and there is brownfield land all over Dublin growing dandilions - then decisions have been made to artificially lever the market, regardless of how many people vs places there are.

The scarcity then is artificial. And the reality is, it doesn't really matter how many people live here if the scarcity is artificial. The scarcity has been engineered - if the conditions change, it will simply be re engineered again to make sure the outcome's the same.

It is not an issue of supply and demand when supply is being kept out of reach strategically. If we launched every non-Irish born resident off the island tomorrow then, we would not suddenly solve the homelesness issue. The goalposts would just be quietly moved again.

Blaming migration is a distraction. A likely scapegoat, but a distraction. Like arguing about the other guy at the table over card counting when the casino pays in counterfeit cash.

Edit- apologies, didn't see the mod note.

This article (from 2011, you wouldn't get away with saying such things now) states that over half of the people/families on the dublin public housing list are non nationals with a third being non EU.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/over-half-on-housing-list-are-foreign-27973856.html

One would wonder what the up to date figures are.

House building isnt at a rate to accommodate the indigenous population never mind the large number of immigrants. That's the reality. Like it or not

yagan

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

This article (from 2011, you wouldn't get away with saying such things now) states that over half of the people/families on the dublin public housing list are non nationals with a third being non EU.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/over-half-on-housing-list-are-foreign-27973856.html

One would wonder what the up to date figures are.

House building isnt at a rate to accommodate the indigenous population never mind the large number of immigrants. That's the reality. Like it or not

The gas thing is in 2011 the indigenous population, including myself were emigrating to Australia and elsewhere because picking mushrooms wasn't going to pay the bills.

Like Irish diaspora in the past immigrant communities tend to want to cluster for community support which only adds greater pressures to the capital.

In the 80s I was one of those emigrants who'd cluster in cramped accommodation in the USA and I can see the same cycle repeating itself here now.

ExMachina1000

yagan wrote: »

The gas thing is in 2011 the indigenous population, including myself were emigrating to Australia and elsewhere because picking mushrooms wasn't going to pay the bills.

Like Irish diaspora in the past immigrant communities tend to want to cluster for community support which only adds greater pressures to the capital.

In the 80s I was one of those emigrants who'd cluster in cramped accommodation in the USA and I can see the same cycle repeating itself here now.

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.