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Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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    #3602
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    anytime try scorer

    Hamish Watson or Finn Russell @ 8/1 ?


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    #3603
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    fryup wrote: »
    anytime try scorer

    Hamish Watson or Finn Russell @ 8/1 ?

    watson has 3 trys in 37 games... so do you think he has more or less than a 1 in 8 chance of scoring in this game?

    russell has 6 in 53 and hasnt scored an international try since 2019

    its up to you to determine of you think these odds are value or not.


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    #3604
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    maitland to score a try in the first 10 minutes at 20/1 might be decent value. i expect the scots to come out all guns blazing.


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    #3605
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Ireland's defence is miserly. I'd expect a low scoring game where Ireland look to dominate possession and keep the ball out of the hands of Hogg and Russell.


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    #3606
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    watson has 3 trys in 37 games... so do you think he has more or less than a 1 in 8 chance of scoring in this game?

    well that's the crux of gambling isn't it ;)

    "you pay your money and take your chances"


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    #3607
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Ireland's defence is miserly. I'd expect a low scoring game where Ireland look to dominate possession and keep the ball out of the hands of Hogg and Russell.

    good point.. under 35.5 @ 7/4 might be value


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    #3608
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    fryup wrote: »
    well that's the crux of gambling isn't it ;)

    "you pay your money and take your chances"

    exactly, and the point of this thread is to chat about where you think value might be before the event


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    #3609
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    good point.. under 35.5 @ 7/4 might be value

    *thomond2006 accepts no responsibility for sydthebeat's losses when the game inevitably finishes 40-37.


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    #3610
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    *thomond2006 accepts no responsibility for sydthebeat's losses when the game inevitably finishes 40-37.

    :D i havent pulled the trigger in that one.

    french refs are too volatile for a bet like that ;)


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    #3611
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    exactly, and the point of this thread is to chat about where you think value might be before the event

    yes, and i think the value might be in Russell or Watson to be an anytime try scorer @ 8/1


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    #3612
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    fryup wrote: »
    yes, and i think the value might be in Russell or Watson to be an anytime try scorer @ 8/1

    good stuff

    so stick it up here when you make the bet

    as for own bets for the weekend, im awaiting Ireland -1 to come in to make it 6 from 6 spread bets

    for games like this (tight arm wrestle affairs) i think paddy powers tryscoring odds are too mean...

    but anyway ive gone for Herring 1st try scorer @ 18/1


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    #3613
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    fryup wrote: »
    yes, and i think the value might be in Russell or Watson to be an anytime try scorer @ 8/1
    sydthebeat wrote: »
    good stuff

    so stick it up here when you make the bet

    well i went for neither, i went for jonny gray @ 16/1 :p


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    #3614
    The real mccoy 91
    Registered Users Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Odd stat in relation to tries in Scotland games since the world cup. 39 tries for and against them 21 of the 39 have been by the back 3 so it leads me to backing

    Maitland anytime 3/1
    Keenan anytime 9/2


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    #3615
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    fryup wrote: »
    yes, and i think the value might be in Russell or Watson to be an anytime try scorer @ 8/1

    :eek:


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    #3616
    fryup
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    fryup wrote: »
    yes, and i think the value might be in Russell or Watson to be an anytime try scorer @ 8/1
    sydthebeat wrote: »
    good stuff

    so stick it up here when you make the bet
    fryup wrote: »
    well i went for neither, i went for jonny gray @ 16/1 :p

    :o:(:o

    tumblr_mm1vaoagkC1qd833zo1_250.gif


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    #3617
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Some weekend additions to my acca above.

    Munster - 12 @10/11 :)
    Zebre +24 @10/11 :)
    Double @ 2.6/1 :D

    Dragons +8 @evens :)
    Edinburgh +8 @evens :)

    Wales - 25 @evens :)
    Ireland - 1 @10/11 :)
    Herring 1st try scorer @ 18/1
    Red card in Ireland v Scotland @4/1

    Soroka 1st @16/1
    Soroka anytime @ 13/5
    Penny 1st @ 10/1

    Bellini Italian top try scorer @12s

    all 6 spread bets came in, with a nice double as the cherry... for some decent profit from the weekend.


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    #3618
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    I see there are spreads out for the Euro R16.

    Bordeaux -1 vs Bristol
    Exeter -13 vs Lyon
    Gloucester +6 vs La Rochelle
    Leinster -10 vs Toulon
    Munster +3 vs Toulouse
    Racing -14 vs Edinburgh
    Scarlets +1 vs Sale Sharks
    Wasps +5 vs Clermont Auvergne


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    #3619
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    bristol and CA seem decent value at those spreads... probably Toulouse as well, especially if Munster win the week before.

    i dont like too wide spreads for knock out games when all a team has to do is win.


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    #3620
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    england -3 must look very very attractive right now... but damn i hate betting against Ireland when playing England


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    #3621
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,127 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Anyone tempted by the 16/1 on Jalibert or the 33/1 on Russell to be the top 6 nations point scorer? Obviously Farrell and Sexton are well ahead, but is there not at least a chance they will both have duff last games?


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    #3622
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    They aren't bad shouts at those odds. My concern on Jalibert would be that he'll be replaced by Ntamack in games. Russell may not play 80 minutes against Italy.


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    #3623
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    With Ryan and Ringrose out, England -3 probably won't last.


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    #3624
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Ospreys - 24 are good value.

    They are currently 3rd in conference A, 7 points ahead of Glasgow. However Glasgow have a game in hand and would fancy at least 9 points against dragons and Treviso. That would push Ospreys into 4th and a play off place for Europe.

    However this season there's no play offs. The seventh spot goes to the seventh team on the overall league table. Ospreys are currently 6th overall but only 1 point ahead of Cardiff. Assuming Glasgow leap frog ospreys which is very likely, it means they are competing against blues (and Edinburgh) for that seventh spot for the HC. Cardiff play Edinburgh in their final game, whereas embra have blues and dragons and Treviso (which may end up as a covid game with them getting 4 points)

    Anyway, this game against leinster is ospreys playing for HC qualification.

    Put on top of that Leinsters injury crisis and missing test players (was 31 players mentioned during the week?)....
    -24 could be the nap of the weekend..... And a narrower spread could show good value.


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    #3625
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Took Benetton +26 at evens, I see it's +21 now.


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    #3626
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    weekend bets so far

    ospreys +24 @ evens
    ospreys win @ 13/1

    glasgow -3 @ 10/11

    double glasgow -3 + ospreys win @ 26/1

    zebre +23 @ 10/11

    scotland -26 @ evens

    england -3 @ 10/11
    england -9.5 @ 7/4

    luke jacobson 1st try (canes v chiefs) @25/1

    scotland, england and france all to win @ 6/4


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    #3627
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Took Benetton +26 at evens, I see it's +21 now.

    down to +16 now

    starting to look like value for munster there


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    #3628
    Leinstertomas
    Registered Users Posts: 296 ✭✭Leinstertomas


    Ulster -8 HT
    -20 FT
    Over 31 points
    @13/10

    Ulster -10 HT @10/11

    Ulster -33 @11/4


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    #3629
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,263 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    weekend bets so far

    ospreys +24 @ evens
    ospreys win @ 13/1

    double glasgow -3 + ospreys win @ 26/1


    F6qZ.gif


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    #3630
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,127 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Anyone tempted by the 16/1 on Jalibert or the 33/1 on Russell to be the top 6 nations point scorer? Obviously Farrell and Sexton are well ahead, but is there not at least a chance they will both have duff last games?

    Well I stuck a tenner on Jalibert @ 14/1. Glad I held off on Russell


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    #3631
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    CJ anytime try 8/1 special on PP. 12 tries in 50 caps. It's not a bad bet.


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