What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

Strazdas · 19-03-2021 12:44PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Could you source those costs?
It may be only a google away (I don't use twitter) but it is courteous to post a link is it not?
One question that occurs - is that the cost the EU will pay if/when they actually deliver all 300 million or so doses or whatever it was?

IMO, as time ticks ever on and AstraZeneca gets further and further away from targets, all the debates about contracts, how the UK was so clever & fast and hands on etc. becomes less relevant. There's no sign of any increase on the way and most recent efforts seems to be scrambling to be allowed to export vaccine from USA or India into the EU to help with the shortfall. I somehow doubt that was ever intention of the EU.

The only thing that might be important is that perhaps the EU should have thrown more money at the company or been more proactive + engaged.
It doesn't look like they needed to do the second with the other companies however, and after what has happened so far, would it be sensible to do the first now (to raise final costs for the EU closer to other vaccines?).

It's beginning to look though that AstraZeneca were never up to the job of providing the EU with vaccines (and never will be), not in significant numbers anyway.

mick087 · 19-03-2021 12:57PM

thebaz wrote: »

We are still awaiting the official official notification that AZ vaccination can resume, I'm really astounded at the lack of urgency to announce verdict, given we are living in a pandemic, fighting a 3rd wave.

I agree, It beggars belief it really does.

namloc1980 · 19-03-2021 12:58PM

mick087 wrote: »

I agree, It beggars belief it really does.

I'm sure someone will be along soon to defend these delays.

Wolf359f · 19-03-2021 01:00PM

Aegir wrote: »

and could explain why no one seems to be rushing to make the vaccine. There must be dozens of facilities in europe that could produce it, but why bother when they can carry on making whatever they make now at huge profits.

Oxford licenced vaccine manufacturing to AZ for Europe. Nobody but AZ can produce it in Europe. So by saying no one rushing to make it, is basically AZ not rushing to make it.

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 01:01PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

The only thing that might be important is that perhaps the EU should have thrown more money at the company or been more proactive + engaged.
It doesn't look like they needed to do the second with the other companies however, and after what has happened so far, would it be sensible to do the first now (to raise final costs for the EU closer to other vaccines?).

AZ received €336m upfront from the EU to scale up production. Seven months after signing they still haven't even applied for approval to use one of the two European manufacturing sites named in their EU contract. That site is producing vaccines, just not for the EU because AZ haven't applied despite being told to do so.

Whatever about what the EU could/should have done, they don't mean anything when AZ won't even deliver on the most basic things for which money was thrown at them. Even in the UK where people tell us the UK did everything right with funding, engagement, etc., AZ had to export from Europe and then India. At this stage, I think had more money been thrown at AZ or more engagement or whatever, it probably just would have made the mess now even bigger. They were never up to the task and, apart from partnering with a big enough company, were never going to get up to it within the time required no matter what anyone else did.

thebaz · 19-03-2021 01:05PM

mick087 wrote: »

I agree, It beggars belief it really does.

and even still awaiting OFFICIAL verdict -

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-update-due-on-resuming-use-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-in-ireland-1.4514575

The slowness is really unbeliebable - will be the weekend soon.

Charles Babbage · 19-03-2021 01:06PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Oxford licenced vaccine manufacturing to AZ for Europe. Nobody but AZ can produce it in Europe. So by saying no one rushing to make it, is basically AZ not rushing to make it.

This was where things went wrong. AZ can't hack it and are shameless. Had Oxford dealt with Merck or another competent company then we'd be a lot better off.

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

AZ received €336m upfront from the EU to scale up production. Seven months after signing they still haven't even applied for approval to use one of the two European manufacturing sites named in their EU contract. That site is producing vaccines, just not for the EU because AZ haven't applied despite being told to do so.

If the Dutch plant is producing vaccine material, can it not be brought into the export regulations, although it hasn't been approved in the EU? If they couldn't export it then they'd likely apply to approval forthwith.

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 19-03-2021 01:11PM

robinph wrote: »

France seems to be determined to create more vaccine hesitancy in the most vaccine hesitant country in Europe. Now the are only using the Astra Zeneca vaccine for people aged over 55, not sure if they still have the upper age limit of 65/ 70?

https://twitter.com/le_Parisien/status/1372878270618857472?s=19

Please no more moronic domino effects from countries being overcautious...

19-03-2021 01:14PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Could you source those costs?
It may be only a google away (I don't use twitter) but it is courteous to post a link is it not?

please accept my heart felt apologies for my rudeness in not posting a link https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minister-accidentally-tweets-eus-covid-vaccine-price-list

Wolf359f wrote: »

Oxford licenced vaccine manufacturing to AZ for Europe. Nobody but AZ can produce it in Europe. So by saying no one rushing to make it, is basically AZ not rushing to make it.

I'm not sure how the Pharma industry woks in that respect, but it looks to me as though Astra Zeneca aren't actually making any of it, it is all done by sub contractors.

Ramasun · 19-03-2021 01:18PM

I was surprised to hear the UK are getting AZ vaccines from India. As I understand it the EU doses only come from production sites in Europe. Is that part of the reason there's such a shortfall?

Wolf359f · 19-03-2021 01:21PM

Aegir wrote: »

please accept my heart felt apologies for my rudeness in not posting a link https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minister-accidentally-tweets-eus-covid-vaccine-price-list

I'm not sure how the Pharma industry woks in that respect, but it looks to me as though Astra Zeneca aren't actually making any of it, it is all done by sub contractors.

Most pharma companies use sub contractors, very few would do everything themselves (vials etc..)
But it's still under licence so it's not like Pfizer or Merck can just go making it. They need a licence from Oxford or AZ to use them as subcontractors.
AZ are truly out of their league.

Melanchthon · 19-03-2021 01:21PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

IMO, as time ticks ever on and AstraZeneca gets further and further away from targets, all the debates about contracts, how the UK was so clever & fast and hands on etc. becomes less relevant. There's no sign of any increase on the way and most recent efforts seems to be scrambling to be allowed to export vaccine from USA or India into the EU to help with the shortfall. I somehow doubt that was ever intention of the EU.

The only thing that might important is that perhaps the EU should have thrown more money at the company or been more proactive + engaged.
It doesn't look like they needed to do the second with the other companies however, and after what has happened so far, would it be sensible to do the first now (to raise final costs for the EU closer to other vaccines?).

Ok well a couple of things. Firstly the poster was wondering why there is even the talk about the UK being faster when the final contracts dates are so close, to which it's important to point out that millions had been handed over months before so there would be preliminary agreements particularly as they were meant to get a big delivery in September.

I get what your saying about the contracts becoming less relevant as Astra Zeneca continues to not deliver, however the contracts are still relevant because of talk (and occasional either lies or accidental falsehoods by certain EU figures) about the UK having a vaccine export ban.

Astra Zeneca had failed to deliver it's huge commitments and even a neutral observer would have an issue with things like the Halix plant. Also it's not like they didn't completely fail on their initial targets for the UK either

You mention the way that the EU didn't have to do this with other companies but thats not the case. Pfizer/BioNtech have done good and other companies have been more open but it's not like Moderna are delivering despite being honest about their issues, people are saying J and J will save us and hopefully they will but that's still a maybe.

In general we end up talking a lot about the UK but I think we should also look at the USA, the EU is what 450 million people, USA is 330 million, but the amount of money the USA helped put down for vaccine development and production build up is just so much more. Like look at Novaxax, they got like a billion and a half of the USA, that's a company with EU based capacity and nothing so far. There is a financial times article I have forgotten the link too that highlights just how massive the difference in spending is.

The EU has tried to run the vaccine program on the cheap* whilst also scoring political brownie points by criticising Trump's vaccine nationalism last year.
Even if there had been no vaccine export from the EU to the UK the EU program wouldn't be in great shape and with Bidens recent announcement it seems places like Canada will end up with more US vaccine than EU produced vaccine anyways.

* Standard response to this type of criticism is that we need more EU to solve the problem though

fly_agaric · 19-03-2021 01:27PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

AZ received €336m upfront from the EU to scale up production. Seven months after signing they still haven't even applied for approval to use one of the two European manufacturing sites named in their EU contract. That site is producing vaccines, just not for the EU because AZ haven't applied despite being told to do so.
Whatever about what the EU could/should have done, they don't mean anything when AZ won't even deliver on the most basic things for which money was thrown at them. Even in the UK where people tell us the UK did everything right with funding, engagement, etc., AZ had to export from Europe and then India.

It is all a bit odd really.
I haven't seen anything definitive in the media on what is actually happening and don't like public speculations (which I suppose is what we are all esentially doing posting on here!) or trying to extrapolate from the information available.
As I said to you before I think, I would be surprised if EU countries are allowing export of large amounts of this vaccine now since the control mechanisms came in. That 250k doses that were to be exported to Australia obviously tripped the wire.

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

At this stage, I think had more money been thrown at AZ or more engagement or whatever, it probably just would have made the mess now even bigger. They were never up to the task and, apart from partnering with a big enough company, were never going to get up to it within the time required no matter what anyone else did.

I agree it (probably) would have made little difference, or might have been more money down the drain.
Seems that they just cannot deliver on the large amounts in the EU contract without a lot more assistance. There's certainly no point giving them more money now imo.

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 01:29PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If the Dutch plant is producing vaccine material, can it not be brought into the export regulations, although it hasn't been approved in the EU? If they couldn't export it then they'd likely apply to approval forthwith.

It's likely that doses aren't being exported from there any more, there were reports of doses from there now being stockpiled to be released once the plant has been approved. I suspect the lose of this is why the UK went to inspect SII in February in order to receive doses from there. They got 5m doses from SII incredibly quickly but the other 5m hasn't been forthcoming, hence the slowdown at the end of this month in the UK.

Wolf359f · 19-03-2021 01:30PM

Melanchthon wrote: »

The EU has tried to run the vaccine program on the cheap* whilst also scoring political brownie points by criticising Trump's vaccine nationalism last year.
Even if there had been no vaccine export from the EU to the UK the EU program wouldn't be in great shape and with Bidens recent announcement it seems places like Canada will end up with more US vaccine than EU produced vaccine anyways.

* Standard response to this type of criticism is that we need more EU to solve the problem though

Had the EU followed America's or the UK's lead with nationalism, the EU would be averaging 21 doses/100 instead of 12.29, The USA would obviously be unchanged and countries like Israel would be at zero, and some other's who rely solely on EU exports. The UK (which everyone seems to use as a comparison) would be at less than 16/100 (even less depending on how many AZ they have imported)

19-03-2021 01:34PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Had the EU followed America's or the UK's lead with nationalism, the EU would be averaging 21 doses/100 instead of 12.29, The USA would obviously be unchanged and countries like Israel would be at zero, and some other's who rely solely on EU exports. The UK (which everyone seems to use as a comparison) would be at less than 16/100 (even less depending on how many AZ they have imported)

On the basis that the uk administered 11m shots of the AZ vaccine, the first 4m of which came from Halix that means that 7m have been produced in the UK.

How many should they have shared with the rest of the world?

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 01:36PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

It is all a bit odd really.
I haven't seen anything definitive in the media on what is actually happening and don't like public speculations (which I suppose is what we are all esentially doing posting on here!) or trying to extrapolate from the information available.
As I said to you before I think, I would be surprised if EU countries are allowing export of large amounts of this vaccine now since the control mechanisms came in. That 250k doses that were to be exported to Australia obviously tripped the wire.

Nothing definitive but it seems as though the exports stopped in January when AZ reported the huge shortfall and the whole thing kicked off. It seems the EU weren't too worried about exports before that as they weren't aware of the scale of the shortfall, thought replacement doses would come from the UK and expected approval of the Dutch plant much earlier which would have doubled AZs capacity to supply them.

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 01:42PM

Aegir wrote: »

On the basis that the uk administered 11m shots of the AZ vaccine, the first 4m of which came from Halix that means that 7m have been produced in the UK.

How many should they have shared with the rest of the world?

Well they could have said that they'd send 4m back to the EU from UK plants in the summer when they have the bulk of their own population done. They may even still be getting doses from Halix had they been more reasonable. Instead they went with "look how great we are and how crap the EU is", which resulted in that tap being turned off and likely prolonging their vaccination programme.

19-03-2021 01:47PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Well they could have said that they'd send 4m back to the EU from UK plants in the summer when they have the bulk of their own population done.

I would guess that the text that has been redacted pretty much says that AZ can do that and the EU know this, which is why the initial doses were expected to come from within the EU and subsequent orders could also come from the UK.

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

They may even still be getting doses from Halix had they been more reasonable. Instead they went with "look how great we are and how crap the EU is", which resulted in that tap being turned off and likely prolonging their vaccination programme.

what absolute rubbish. No one is saying that outside of the EU.

Melanchthon · 19-03-2021 01:53PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Had the EU followed America's or the UK's lead with nationalism, the EU would be averaging 21 doses/100 instead of 12.29, The USA would obviously be unchanged and countries like Israel would be at zero, and some other's who rely solely on EU exports. The UK (which everyone seems to use as a comparison) would be at less than 16/100 (even less depending on how many AZ they have imported)

You can't actually say that though as companies scaled up their production in the EU for 3rd party countries because they felt the EU which was being strident about the risks of vaccine nationalism was a safe place to scale up production.

If the EU had said Trump's plan was good while also investing substantial less than the USA would there be the current level of production, I doubt it.

fly_agaric · 19-03-2021 01:55PM

Melanchthon wrote: »

Ok well a couple of things. Firstly the poster was wondering why there is even the talk about the UK being faster when the final contracts dates are so close, to which it's important to point out that millions had been handed over months before so there would be preliminary agreements particularly as they were meant to get a big delivery in September.

Fair enough - I didn't want to get into all that debate again. People can read back over the thread if they want I suppose.

Melanchthon wrote: »

I get what your saying about the contracts becoming less relevant as Astra Zeneca continues to not deliver, however the contracts are still relevant because of talk (and occasional either lies or accidental falsehoods by certain EU figures) about the UK having a vaccine export ban.

Yes, they do not have an "export ban" per Charles Michel's comments but they do not export vaccine and will not until UK completes vaccination.
Looking at what happens in reality vs what people say/imagine or what is written in law is always useful.

Melanchthon wrote: »

Astra Zeneca had failed to deliver it's huge commitments and even a neutral observer would have an issue with things like the Halix plant. Also it's not like they didn't completely fail on their initial targets for the UK either

You mention the way that the EU didn't have to do this with other companies but thats not the case. Pfizer/BioNtech have done good and other companies have been more open but it's not like Moderna are delivering despite being honest about their issues, people are saying J and J will save us and hopefully they will but that's still a maybe.

I was unsure if Moderna's vaccine was ever expected to be a large part of the EU members' vaccination programme(s) so hadn't considered it there. It was afaik very much funded by the US. I had Pfizer/Biontech in mind who seem to have managed despite the lack of EU "engagement" etc.

Melanchthon wrote: »

In general we end up talking a lot about the UK but I think we should also look at the USA, the EU is what 450 million people, USA is 330 million, but the amount of money the USA helped put down for vaccine development and production build up is just so much more. Like look at Novaxax, they got like a billion and a half of the USA, that's a company with EU based capacity and nothing so far. There is a financial times article I have forgotten the link too that highlights just how massive the difference in spending is.

The EU has tried to run the vaccine program on the cheap* whilst also scoring political brownie points by criticising Trump's vaccine nationalism last year.
Even if there had been no vaccine export from the EU to the UK the EU program wouldn't be in great shape and with Bidens recent announcement it seems places like Canada will end up with more US vaccine than EU produced vaccine anyways.

* Standard response to this type of criticism is that we need more EU to solve the problem though

I know from your posts you dislike the EU...but in fairness it is the inevitable comeback when you say the EU should have been "more like the US" here (in terms of funding the vaccines + perhaps in terms of engaging directly with the companies more).
Even the large EU countries are an order of magnitude below the US when it comes to resources, wealth etc.
They can only get that scale (which they are increasingly going to need in the modern world) by working together somehow.
The EU (before this pandemic) has little to do with health. It certainly has no pre existing EU level structures or underpinnings to take charge of what is going on.
As regards being somewhat more like the US in just looking out for yourself first, maybe so but Trump's policies were a disgrace & will leave a long shadow IMO. I think sneering at not trying to get a lock on production of vaccines for your own use ("just scoring brownie points") is harsh, but yes, if you play prisoner's dilemma with defectors and try to cooperate you will lose.

19-03-2021 02:05PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, they do not have an "export ban" per Charles Michel's comments but they do not export vaccine and will not until UK completes vaccination.

that might be a fair comment if the UK was producing millions of doses a day, but it isn't. and what it is producing comes from only one factory.

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 02:07PM

Aegir wrote: »

I would guess that the text that has been redacted pretty much says that AZ can do that and the EU know this, which is why the initial doses were expected to come from within the EU and subsequent orders could also come from the UK.

We've been over this. The contract says "AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Initial Europe Doses within the EU" - thats direct word for word quote. There is clearly scope for doses to come from outside the EU, particularly given UK plants in the UK were named in the contract. It doesn't say there is no possibility of doses coming from elsewhere as you like to make out. AZ claim "Best Reasonable Efforts" means they can miss on stated delivery dates, by that same logic there is flexibility in where doses are manufactured.

fly_agaric · 19-03-2021 02:21PM

Aegir wrote: »

that might be a fair comment if the UK was producing millions of doses a day, but it isn't. and what it is producing comes from only one factory.

It is just a fact, to put into context the Charles Michel UK "export ban" statements.

Yes, I realise what is being produced is small in the context of the EUs huge shortfall of AstraZeneca vaccine, let alone the global requirements for vaccines.

Tippbhoy1 · 19-03-2021 02:22PM

Aegir wrote: »

that might be a fair comment if the UK was producing millions of doses a day, but it isn't. and what it is producing comes from only one factory.

It has only become apparent very recently that the uk is not producing millions of doses a day. Problems with supply were attributed by AZ to a problem with a European based factory, thereby indicating everything was rosy in the uk based factories and the EU was being hard done by.

It’s clear now that most of the bounce was due to the early stockpiles and the early approvals. The emperor has no clothes. If AZ had been more transparent and not let Boris and the gutter press uk media to crow about their “success”, this would never had turned into the ****show it has.

19-03-2021 02:25PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

We've been over this. The contract says "AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Initial Europe Doses within the EU" - thats direct word for word quote. There is clearly scope for doses to come from outside the EU, particularly given UK plants in the UK were named in the contract. It doesn't say there is no possibility of doses coming from elsewhere as you like to make out. AZ claim "Best Reasonable Efforts" means they can miss on stated delivery dates, by that same logic there is flexibility in where doses are manufactured.

yes, absolutely.

If (as stated in clause 5.4) the vaccine can be made in the EU (Including the UK) does it specifically exclude the UK from the initial batch?

Because the EU knew the UK plant was out of scope initially so it was not included in the initial doses.

19-03-2021 02:35PM

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

It has only become apparent very recently that the uk is not producing millions of doses a day. Problems with supply were attributed by AZ to a problem with a European based factory, thereby indicating everything was rosy in the uk based factories and the EU was being hard done by

apparent to who? it isn't exactly a secret

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUSKBN28I1NH

Strazdas · 19-03-2021 02:50PM

Aegir wrote: »

apparent to who? it isn't exactly a secret

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUSKBN28I1NH

But have a look at this from the same article :

The “vast, vast, vast majority” - over 80% - of the 100 million doses AstraZeneca will produce for the United Kingdom will be made there, Ian McCubbin, manufacturing lead for the Vaccine Taskforce, said, but this year’s first batches will not.

“The initial supply and it’s a little bit of a quirk of the programme actually comes from the Netherlands and Germany,” he told reporters.

“But once that’s supplied, which we expect will be all by the end of this year, then the remainder of the supply will be a UK supply chain.”

Why are the UK and AZ so dependent on doses from India? And are AZ really going to produce 80m doses in the UK for the UK this year?

Pete_Cavan · 19-03-2021 02:58PM

Aegir wrote: »

yes, absolutely.

If (as stated in clause 5.4) the vaccine can be made in the EU (Including the UK) does it specifically exclude the UK from the initial batch?

Because the EU knew the UK plant was out of scope initially so it was not included in the initial doses.

Can you quote from the contract where it specifically excludes the UK from the initial batch?

Tippbhoy1 · 19-03-2021 03:03PM

Aegir wrote: »

apparent to who? it isn't exactly a secret

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUSKBN28I1NH

Who - about half the population of Europe and the Uk I’d say.

The article you just linked there proves my point. The majority of AZ supply will come from the UK according to that article. Just because something isn’t a secret when you find one article linking your point to a specific element of someone’s post, try thinking about people’s perception and what people think. This is not a court of law. It’s reasonable to assume from passing information that the majority of vaccine used in the successful rollout of the Uk is made in the UK. In due course I’d say the second half of the 100 million order they’re giving away probably will be, later this year.

I’d say the average Johnny englander still thinks they are exporting vaccines, don’t think they’re importing AZ , and certainly think most people have been given AZ in the UK. Supply from India, while flagged, still is a shock. Boris said the Uk was self sufficient for vaccine supply, It has to be this way, else the vaccine rollout wouldn’t be as much a success for independent UK. You only need to ascertain people’s comments on similar uk based forums to here. Why would they think any different, it’s what Boris either has told them, or in some cases not told them, all backed up by the majority of the anti EU media in the UK.

What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

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