What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

Lady Spangles · 16-03-2021 09:02PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Thats pure conspiracy theory, AZ are doing a great job of undermining themselves and making competitors look good without the other companies having to get their hands dirty.

How are they undermining themselves?

Tippbhoy1 · 16-03-2021 09:23PM

Lady Spangles wrote: »

How are they undermining themselves?

You’ll find the answer to that in about 100 pages of this forum, but I’ll bite.

Selling a life saving product or service in a volume that they were unable to deliver on, taking funding that could have been spent better elsewhere.
Reassessing volumes, resetting expectations, that they still can’t hit.
Signing a contract with the Uk, after signing a contract with the EU, where they give conflicting commitments that are in excessive favour of the former and never informing the latter
Informing the EU a week before deliveries were due to commence, that they couldn’t hit a barn door of commitments, that they would have known about for weeks or months before
After failing to hit the reassessed figures with the EU, trying to export product to other countries using facilities located and paid for by the EU
Facilitating nationalisation of factories ie the UK

Long term id say their licence will be revoked in the EU. They chose their bed. Best of luck to them

Pete_Cavan · 16-03-2021 09:34PM

Lady Spangles wrote: »

How are they undermining themselves?

Approval data lacking with clarification required from EMA and Swiss didn't approve, failing to meet their own hugely reduced delivery targets, signed a contract with EU stating they have no contractual commitments which could impede fulfilling order then CEO says in Jan that UK get priority because they signed contract first (which has been since disputed), claimed production issues at plant in Belgium which the plant itself later refuted, haven't even applied for EMA approval for Dutch plant specifically named in EU contract... All things entirely in their control.

They have also said that they will meet EU Q2 deliveries with doses made outside the EU, despite their excuse for the Q1 underperformance being EU doses come from EU. The contract hasn't changed but apparently their interpretation of it has. They are looking outside the EU despite not bothering to get one of the two EU sites approved. At this rate they might even have a manufacturing site outside the EU approved before one of them in the EU named in the contract.

embraer170 · 16-03-2021 09:52PM

A few details on the German thrombosis cases in the media this evening:

1.6 million doses: 7 cases, 3 of which were fatal. Events between 4 and 16 days after the AZ vaccine. All women aged between 20 and 50.

The explanation for the lack of cases in the UK is that AZ has so far mainly been given to an older age group there. (not sure if that makes any sense?)

Wolf359f · 16-03-2021 10:07PM

embraer170 wrote: »

A few details on the German thrombosis cases in the media this evening:

1.6 million doses: 7 cases, 3 of which were fatal. Events between 4 and 16 days after the AZ vaccine. All women aged between 20 and 50.

The explanation for the lack of cases in the UK is that AZ has so far mainly been given to an older age group there. (not sure if that makes any sense?)

Just to add, these events, they would normally expect to see 2-5 per million per year, so it's definitely above baseline. Interesting they are all women (if they are healthcare workers, it may explain it)

I'm not sure what the breakdown in the UK is, they don't really mention who gets what vaccine.

Let's hope they find an underlying reason for the events and hope the second doses don't increase the risk. Nowhere has been doing 2nd doses of AZ yet.

Strazdas · 16-03-2021 10:09PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Just to add, these events, they would normally expect to see 2-5 per million per year, so it's definitely above baseline. Interesting they are all women (if they are healthcare workers, it may explain it)

I'm not sure what the breakdown in the UK is, they don't really mention who gets what vaccine.

Let's hope they find an underlying reason for the events and hope the second doses don't increase the risk. Nowhere has been doing 2nd doses of AZ yet.

Listening to RTE Radio this evening, women are more likely to get blood clots because of high estrogen levels.

Wolf359f · 16-03-2021 10:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Listening to RTE Radio this evening, women are more likely to get blood clots because of high estrogen levels.

You would expect to see higher regular blood clotting if AZ was causing the serious cerebral ones though?
It's a mystery to me, hopefully the EMA have no further issues and countries can get back to using it by the end of the week.

robinph · 16-03-2021 10:39PM

embraer170 wrote: »

The explanation for the lack of cases in the UK is that AZ has so far mainly been given to an older age group there. (not sure if that makes any sense?)

I doubt that is accurate. They could certainly claim that Pfizer initially was the one given to the very senior age groups as that was all there was for the first couple of weeks, but since then it's been relatively even, very wide range of ages vaccinated once you include carers and the various vulnerable categories (which make up the bulk of those vaccinated). It's also not down to where you go for the jab either (which may vary depending on which group you are in if you go to a hub or a GP) as the vaccine centers apparently don't know much in advance what brand they are getting each day.

I know the GP surgery near me has been giving both at different times, and the hub I went to has given either on different weeks based on people I know who have been there. Some regions are starting to call in the 40 year old age group now, and most are well into the 50 age group. Biggest group of 18-64 year olds with underlying conditions I think will be completed by next week, but were started on over a month ago. So plenty of younger people vaccinated with both brands in the UK.

padjocollins · 17-03-2021 08:02AM

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/astrazeneca-vaccine-doesnt-prevent-b1351-covid-early-trial

17-03-2021 08:44AM

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 09:05AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

And you don't think that ignoring a safety issue raised by multiple countries would also further vaccine hesitancy? Anyone hesitant to take the vaccine after an extra round of safety review concluded that it is safe was always going to find an excuse. For any reasonable person, this should remove a reason to be hesitant.

brickster69 · 17-03-2021 09:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

Total panic mode ! 17 million people are vaccinated in Europe, complications - 40 cases, 1 death and one hospitalization. At the same time, just yesterday, 289 people died of COVID-19 in Ukraine

Danzy · 17-03-2021 09:43AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

They bothered to look at the evidence, nothing changed but some people looked at the copious data.

It has done damage to the vaccine program.

Igotadose · 17-03-2021 09:51AM

Ireland 'preparing to resume.' https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/preparations-for-astrazeneca-vaccinations-to-resume-amid-optimism-on-safety-clearance-1.4512324

So, unfortunately, the programme was delayed a few days and much FUD added to our stress levels. Well done.

Godot. · 17-03-2021 09:54AM

38%... tragic. Well done NIAC *slow clap*

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1371595623141621766

Danno · 17-03-2021 10:09AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

Reputational damage for the cost-priced supplied AZ vaccine. Watch the share prices of the others increase. Job done, taxpayers on the hook for a more expensive vaccine roll-out. Big pharma profit margins protected. The uber-wealthy MUST be protected. That is all that matters.

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 10:36AM

Danno wrote: »

Reputational damage for the cost-priced supplied AZ vaccine. Watch the share prices of the others increase. Job done, taxpayers on the hook for a more expensive vaccine roll-out. Big pharma profit margins protected. The uber-wealthy MUST be protected. That is all that matters.

Deals to buy enough vaccines were long done before this so I don't see how vaccine roll-out has become more expensive or how it changes big pharma profit margins.

Oxford said the vaccine would be at-cost or cost + limited margin so its also possible, probably likely, that AZ are profiting from it. (it was also supposed to be non-exclusive, royalty-free licences but AZ got it exclusively).

Danzy · 17-03-2021 10:41AM

Danno wrote: »

Reputational damage for the cost-priced supplied AZ vaccine. Watch the share prices of the others increase. Job done, taxpayers on the hook for a more expensive vaccine roll-out. Big pharma profit margins protected. The uber-wealthy MUST be protected. That is all that matters.

Some are more favoured for political reasons but the mess mess made in Europe will cost all.

It's more lethargy and incompetence than devious.

Danzy · 17-03-2021 10:42AM

Danno wrote: »

Reputational damage for the cost-priced supplied AZ vaccine. Watch the share prices of the others increase. Job done, taxpayers on the hook for a more expensive vaccine roll-out. Big pharma profit margins protected. The uber-wealthy MUST be protected. That is all that matters.

Some are more favoured for political reasons but the mess mess made in Europe will cost all.

It's more lethargy and incompetence than devious.

astrofool · 17-03-2021 10:55AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So France and Italy to resume the AZ jabs today, as I suspected would happen. What changed from yesterday? All that will have been achieved is to further vaccine hesitancy

Exactly these type of issues and more were covered up in France in the 90's and 00's that led to a huge growth in anti-vax movement there.

brickster69 wrote: »

Total panic mode ! 17 million people are vaccinated in Europe, complications - 40 cases, 1 death and one hospitalization. At the same time, just yesterday, 289 people died of COVID-19 in Ukraine

Limited by supply not vaccinators, post pause, countries will catch up quickly, those that are sitting on supplies will still be sitting on supplies.

Igotadose wrote: »

Ireland 'preparing to resume.' https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/preparations-for-astrazeneca-vaccinations-to-resume-amid-optimism-on-safety-clearance-1.4512324

So, unfortunately, the programme was delayed a few days and much FUD added to our stress levels. Well done.

No impact to our timelines, as AZ was going to be used on those with underlying conditions next (i.e. those most likely to suffer complications), the pause made absolutely perfect sense for Ireland.

Danzy wrote: »

Some are more favoured for political reasons but the mess mess made in Europe will cost all.

It's more lethargy and incompetence than devious.

Many countries who paused the rollout are not in the EU or even in Europe.

It is no coincidence that the country that is vaccinator rather than supply limited has come out most strongly against any pause in rollout.

Danno · 17-03-2021 11:01AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Deals to buy enough vaccines were long done before this so I don't see how vaccine roll-out has become more expensive or how it changes big pharma profit margins.

Oxford said the vaccine would be at-cost or cost + limited margin so its also possible, probably likely, that AZ are profiting from it. (it was also supposed to be non-exclusive, royalty-free licences but AZ got it exclusively).

If 38% of folk refuse it (basing this figure on those concerned according to the Claire Byrne survey) then the HSE has to order in a different brand to make up the shortfall, a different and more expensive brand at that.

Wolf359f · 17-03-2021 11:11AM

Danno wrote: »

If 38% of folk refuse it (basing this figure on those concerned according to the Claire Byrne survey) then the HSE has to order in a different brand to make up the shortfall, a different and more expensive brand at that.

Assuming AZ will make up 62% of our vaccine rollout, which I'll say will never be the case.
It currently makes up 20% of what we have received.

17-03-2021 11:18AM

Slow clap to all involved in the decisions of the last couple of days

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 12:29PM

Danno wrote: »

If 38% of folk refuse it (basing this figure on those concerned according to the Claire Byrne survey) then the HSE has to order in a different brand to make up the shortfall, a different and more expensive brand at that.

In an alternative scenario where a number of countries paused use of the vaccine over safety concerns, I wonder what the response would be to the question "Has the refusal to temporarily withdraw the AstraZeneca vaccine despite the safety concerns raised affected your willingness to take it?". Obviously we will never know that but there were consequences to doing nothing too.

The question was asked at a time when the safety issue is at the forefront of peoples minds and before an official resolution. In a months time when the concerns have been addressed, the issue put to bed and gets replaced by something else in the news, the result from such a question will be very different. The result now reflects it being a hot topic right now, that poll result does not hold true for ever. Anybody still refusing to take it in a couple of weeks was just looking for an excuse and would have found one with or without this.

AZs failure to deliver has ensured that it will remain a small part of the vaccination programme in the EU. Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all ramping up and will provide the bulk. There will be enough people to take whatever AZ deliver and there is more than enough for everyone else. There wont be a need to order in a different brand to make up the shortfall over this, although there may be a need to order in more due to AZs inability to deliver. No doubt you will continue to overlook AZs failure while getting worked up over lesser issues.

Melanchthon · 17-03-2021 12:43PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

AZs failure to deliver has ensured that it will remain a small part of the vaccination programme in the EU. Pfizer, Moderna and J&J all ramping up and will provide the bulk. There will be enough people to take whatever AZ deliver and there is more than enough for everyone else. .

It would be excellent if J&J hit the ground running and Pfizer have done excellent work increasing supply but isn't betting on J&J not having any initial problems and Moderna a supply increasing greatly not counting the chickens before they hatch?

mick087 · 17-03-2021 12:47PM

Ramping up are you for real?
We can't even use what we have now for people who want the vaccine now.

This thread is full of new vaccines coming out and ramping up.
Ramping up that is hilarious.

This is now political and you well know it.

robinph · 17-03-2021 12:54PM

The big issue is if the vaccine take up throughout Europe before next winter is going to reach high enough levels?

Don't see how any of this last week has helped in the slightest with increasing the vaccine takeup in hesitant countries. Will make barely a blip for countries like Ireland who will take whatever they are offered, but loads of stories in hesitant countries about what should have obviously been a nothing event after the first day or so isn't going to inspire confidence in vaccines for populations that are only 50% likely to take any vaccine before the start of this.

It's not something that can be fixed in a week, and it clearly wasn't broken in a week either. The problem was there already. If countries like France have only got barely 50% of their adult population vaccinated by the winter then Europe is going to struggle to come out of this anytime soon.

Maybe Europe needs to send extra shipments to Ireland and Malta above their quota so that they can remove all restrictions more quickly and show the rest of the EU that the vaccines work. No point pointing to the UK example obviously as they are idiots.

Bit cynical · 17-03-2021 01:55PM

robinph wrote: »

Maybe Europe needs to send extra shipments to Ireland and Malta above their quota so that they can remove all restrictions more quickly and show the rest of the EU that the vaccines work.

I doubt if any country will send vaccines to another country even if they don't use them themselves. That would allow the other country to get ahead in the vaccination numbers.

robinph · 17-03-2021 02:10PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I doubt if any country will send vaccines to another country even if they don't use them themselves. That would allow the other country to get ahead in the vaccination numbers.

Agreed its highly unlikely, but if you have countries in Europe of 70 million people which are not having a high take up of vaccines then throwing a spare million towards Ireland to then use them as an example of "look what we could do if only you'd turn up and take your jabs" might be an idea and wouldn't make any difference to the numbers available for them, whilst a million shots tomorrow for Ireland makes a massive difference.

How do you convince a population that vaccines are a good thing? Leave them to spend another year in lockdown and hope they see sense? Show them another fully vaccinated country that have not grown three heads and are getting back to their daily lives?

Not sure what the answer is, but if there are big countries in the EU with only 50% vaccination then this last 12 months will have been for next to nothing.

Bit cynical · 17-03-2021 02:20PM

robinph wrote: »

Agreed its highly unlikely, but if you have countries in Europe of 70 million people which are not having a high take up of vaccines then throwing a spare million towards Ireland to then use them as an example of "look what we could do if only you'd turn up and take your jabs" might be an idea and wouldn't make any difference to the numbers available for them, whilst a million shots tomorrow for Ireland makes a massive difference.

How do you convince a population that vaccines are a good thing? Leave them to spend another year in lockdown and hope they see sense? Show them another fully vaccinated country that have not grown three heads and are getting back to their daily lives?

However the big problem is still overwhelmingly supply. This is why I think problems with take-up are a bit of a smokescreen. Divert attention away from having messed up supply. The countries engaging in this aren't really interested in take-up at the moment so won't be giving any to Ireland to encourage it back home.

Having said that, no harm in Ireland asking.

What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

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