What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

I believe the numbers are a lot smaller than they are admitting - I've heard that only 11m AZ doses have been given and quite a few of these were imported from the EU.

Be interesting to know how much [edit: AstraZeneca vaccine] came from the EU locations pre the end of (Brexit) transition alright, not that it really matters much at this stage.

I'd assume it must all be from a UK supply chain since the EU export monitoring was brought in anyway? I can't really see EU countries signing off on significant amounts [edit: of AZ's vaccine] for export to UK after all that controversy and grief with AZ. edit: However, this whole thing is obviously a complicated business I don't understand, and for all I know there could still be product of some sort going back and forth to UK/EU etc for different steps in production.

In any case I think even if UK vaccine production is also not reaching targets, it must be adding several million doses into what UK would have had available to administer without it.

astrofool

fly_agaric wrote: »

Be interesting to know how much came from the EU locations pre the end of (Brexit) transition alright, not that it really matters much at this stage.

I'd assume it must all be from a UK supply chain since the EU export monitoring was brought in anyway? I can't really see EU countries signing off on significant amounts for export to UK after all that controversy and grief with AZ. edit: However, this whole thing is obviously a complicated business I don't understand, and for all I know there could still be product of some sort going back and forth to UK/EU etc for different steps in production.

In any case I think even if UK vaccine production is also not reaching targets, it must be adding several million doses into what UK would have had available to administer without it.

Pfizer is still exporting to the UK, they are reaching their agreed targets (and exeeding) with the EU.

fly_agaric

astrofool wrote: »

Pfizer is still exporting to the UK, they are reaching their agreed targets (and exeeding) with the EU.

Am aware of that.
Sorry, I should have been clearer in my language.
The post you quote was entirely referring to imports/exports of the AstraZeneca vaccines to and from UK/EU or vice versa.
I see now it probably read like I was referring to all vaccine imports/exports.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1371583823717228550

is_that_so

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1371583823717228550

I'd prescribe a course of chill pills for him! How is it that people so easily forget that the COVID rules and precautions pre-vaccination still exist? If people "are dying", it's more likely that some others are not following them, it's not the absence of vaccines. Ironic that he's tweeting from one of the most vaccine-resistant countries in Europe.

Happydays2020

I can understand why this was paused, but if EMA advice is that there is a very small risk in certain patients then we need to get going again quickly.

There is, of course, the counter risk that people will pass away if not vaccinated.

Danzy

is_that_so wrote: »

If people "are dying", it's more likely that some others are not following them, it's not the absence of vaccines.

Ironic that he's tweeting from one of the most vaccine-resistant countries in Europe.

Re the first part. Chemical Ali routine aside, you are presuming that negligence causes cases, some of the most self isolated and cautious people I know have caught it.

Vaccine skepticism is more normal in Europe. Not on the fringes but all the way up in politics.

is_that_so

Danzy wrote: »

Re the first part. Chemical Ali routine aside, you are presuming that negligence causes cases, some of the most self isolated and cautious people I know have caught it.

Vaccine skepticism is more normal in Europe. Not on the fringes but all the way up in politics.

I'm pretty sure I'm not even thinking about that but if you say so, even if it's in an extremely risible riposte.

Pete_Cavan

fly_agaric wrote: »

Be interesting to know how much [edit: AstraZeneca vaccine] came from the EU locations pre the end of (Brexit) transition alright, not that it really matters much at this stage.

I'd assume it must all be from a UK supply chain since the EU export monitoring was brought in anyway? I can't really see EU countries signing off on significant amounts [edit: of AZ's vaccine] for export to UK after all that controversy and grief with AZ. edit: However, this whole thing is obviously a complicated business I don't understand, and for all I know there could still be product of some sort going back and forth to UK/EU etc for different steps in production.

In any case I think even if UK vaccine production is also not reaching targets, it must be adding several million doses into what UK would have had available to administer without it.

Certainly the initial doses the UK received of AZ were made in Europe https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN28I1NH. I read before that this was in the millions of doses which makes sense given they are produced in bulk. Mysteriously, AZ still haven't applied for EMA approval for this Dutch factory despite being ask to so it still can't supply the EU. Presumably most of its production is being exported, to the UK amongst others.

Unfortunately the UK government don't give figures for which vaccines have been used but it has been reported that Pfizer makes up the majority of doses given in the UK. AZ themselves reported that two days ago that 17m people vaccinated in the EU and UK had received their vaccine. Last Friday, Irelands figure was 124,510 doses of AZ given, and as we are 1.1% of the EU programme, there must be 11m doses in the EU. That would mean only 6m in the UK, although several EU countries are not using it as efficiently as Ireland so the UK figure is probably a bit higher. If we assume 8m for UK (almost half of all doses given in Europe), AZ would represent around a third of all doses given in the UK, of which an unknown proportion of them have come from the EU.

It certainly doesn't seem like domestic UK production is fueling their vaccination programme and the bulk of their doses have been produced in the EU. They are keeping all their domestic production which is a nice boost for them, but if others were doing the same, they would be well behind in vaccinating.

Red Silurian

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I can understand why this was paused, but if EMA advice is that there is a very small risk in certain patients then we need to get going again quickly.

There is, of course, the counter risk that people will pass away if not vaccinated.

I suppose one thing that is working for us here is because the rollout from AZ is so slow pausing for a few days won't make much of a change one way or another. Meanwhile the companies credibility internationally comes into question

Jim2007

Danzy wrote: »

17mn vaccinated to date. It's one of the most monitored vaccines in history.

Yes, monitored by the vendor and the government that has the most to loose if it goes wrong. I'd like a lot more authority than that in the monitoring thanks very much.

Danzy wrote: »

Do you support vaccines in general or believe that they are purely medical?

Yes and I will be getting my first jab on Thursday.

robinph

Jim2007 wrote: »

Yes, monitored by the vendor and the government that has the most to loose if it goes wrong. I'd like a lot more authority than that in the monitoring thanks very much.

As you say they have a lot to loose if it goes wrong.

So how exactly do you think anything is being hidden? All the stats are available regarding number of vaccinations given and the reports on any symptoms. It's pretty open with the information.

fly_agaric

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Certainly the initial doses the UK received of AZ were made in Europe https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN28I1NH. I read before that this was in the millions of doses which makes sense given they are produced in bulk. Mysteriously, AZ still haven't applied for EMA approval for this Dutch factory despite being ask to so it still can't supply the EU. Presumably most of its production is being exported, to the UK amongst others.

Unfortunately the UK government don't give figures for which vaccines have been used but it has been reported that Pfizer makes up the majority of doses given in the UK. AZ themselves reported that two days ago that 17m people vaccinated in the EU and UK had received their vaccine. Last Friday, Irelands figure was 124,510 doses of AZ given, and as we are 1.1% of the EU programme, there must be 11m doses in the EU. That would mean only 6m in the UK, although several EU countries are not using it as efficiently as Ireland so the UK figure is probably a bit higher. If we assume 8m for UK (almost half of all doses given in Europe), AZ would represent around a third of all doses given in the UK, of which an unknown proportion of them have come from the EU.

It certainly doesn't seem like domestic UK production is fueling their vaccination programme and the bulk of their doses have been produced in the EU. They are keeping all their domestic production which is a nice boost for them, but if others were doing the same, they would be well behind in vaccinating.

Broadly agree + thanks for the 1st link (might have read it earlier on thread and forgot). However the "17 million" figure you quote (2nd link) and begin your back of the envelope calculations with seems to be for "people" not doses of vaccine, so could that be putting you out of your reckoning a bit?
i.e. the 11m AZ EU doses you estimate above is fewer people (leading to an underestimate of how much AZ vaccine the UK has used)?

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/

states "26m" doses have been administered in UK - as you said we can't break that down between the 2 vaccines they are using.

Given that UK appears to be receiving most of the AZ vaccine it ordered/expected while the EU (obviously) did not, that IMO is main source of difference between pace of the 2 vaccination programmes (at least when comparing UK and Ireland where authorities seem to be able to vaccinate quickly once the supply is available and any "anti vaxx" sentiments are fairly weak).

Italy I think prevented 250k AZ vaccines from being shipped to Australia with the control mechanism. I don't expect countries would be permitting massive (millions of doses) shipment of AZ vaccine out of the EU to the UK post the Export controls coming in.
Since then, my reasoning was it must be local AZ supply source that is being used (and as you phrased it, giving a "boost" to their programme).

average_runner

robinph wrote: »

As you say they have a lot to loose if it goes wrong.

So how exactly do you think anything is being hidden? All the stats are available regarding number of vaccinations given and the reports on any symptoms. It's pretty open with the information.

Its more interesting that Sweden has paused it. Considering AZ are partly Swedish!!



If there is a doubt, then it needs to be checked out quickly.

Pete_Cavan

fly_agaric wrote: »

Broadly agree + thanks for the 1st link (might have read it earlier on thread and forgot). However the "17 million" figure you quote (2nd link) and begin your back of the envelope calculations with seems to be for "people" not doses of vaccine, so could that be putting you out of your reckoning a bit?
i.e. the 11m AZ EU doses you estimate above is fewer people (leading to an underestimate of how much AZ vaccine the UK has used)?

Yes thats why I upped the UK doses from 6m to 8m (which would bring down the EU doses administered from 11m to 9m). I used the Irish figure to gauge approx. EU received doses, then reduced it as not all have been used. But yes, the breakdown of that 17m into EU and UK is very much a back of the envelope calculation and can certainly be out.

Given that UK appears to be receiving most of the AZ vaccine it ordered/expected while the EU (obviously) did not, that IMO is main source of difference between pace of the 2 vaccination programmes (at least when comparing UK and Ireland where authorities seem to be able to vaccinate quickly once the supply is available and any "anti vaxx" sentiments are fairly weak).

Italy I think prevented 250k AZ vaccines from being shipped to Australia with the control mechanism. I don't expect countries would be permitting massive (millions of doses) shipment of AZ vaccine out of the EU to the UK post the Export controls coming in.
Since then, my reasoning was it must be local AZ supply source that is being used (and as you phrased it, giving a "boost" to their programme).

There could have been millions of doses exported from the AZ Dutch facility before controls were brought in. It is probably still happening as AZ for some reason hasn't applied for EMA approval for it so its produce can't be used in the EU (something fishy there). Also note that Pfizer vaccines are still going from EU to UK without issue so the same could well be happening with AZ.

Can someone tell me why, when the EMA say that there is no evidence and vaccinations should continue, that individual countries are stopping vaccinations? What happened to following the science? Just smacks of politics to me

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1371728222392582144

As someone in the dark about what the hell is going on, I found this very helpful.

Frank Bullitt

Frank Bullitt wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1371728222392582144

As someone in the dark about what the hell is going on, I found this very helpful.

It’s politics, pure and simple. Not politics as in trying to make the UK look bad, but politics as in being so scared of any bad news, that leaders want to protect themselves at all costs from any adverse headlines. Which is politics at its core. No matter the lack of evidence. And once one country goes, then every leader wants to cover their ass

Politics at the expense of people’s lives

Lady Spangles

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s politics, pure and simple. Not politics as in trying to make the UK look bad, but politics as in being so scared of any bad news, that leaders want to protect themselves at all costs from any adverse headlines. Which is politics at its core. No matter the lack of evidence. And once one country goes, then every leader wants to cover their ass

Politics at the expense of people’s lives

This isn't the first time the AZ vaccine has been pulled up though. As stated in the BBC report linked above, there was claims it was ineffective on a certain age group and then they were accusing Britain of either withholding the vaccine or failing to supply it to the rest of Europe etc? And it's just this one vaccine, unless there's scandals about Pfizer that I missed.

I'm not trying to say they're doing this to make Britain look bad, btw. It's just there does seem to be issues with AZ. Whatever the case, most people I know who've been vaccinated have been so with the AZ vaccine and they've all been grand beside some rough side effects.

Jim2007

robinph wrote: »

As you say they have a lot to loose if it goes wrong.

If it is found to be going wrong having issued so many doses....


Given the size of the US market I don't understand why they have not applied for approval... I don't understand why they are unable to provide the Swiss government with the required data given that Pfizer and Moderna had no problem doing so. There have been issues right from the start with the provision on data by these people, so pause and review is the correct approach from my prospective.

Bit cynical

I see these suspensions around the EU as highly political and linked to the slow rollout of vaccines generally in the bloc. The slow rollout can now be blamed on safety issues rather than wrong priorities, bad planning, lack of urgency in procurement etc.

iamwhoiam

Bit cynical wrote: »

I see these suspensions around the EU as highly political and linked to the slow rollout of vaccines generally in the bloc. The slow rollout can now be blamed on safety issues rather than wrong priorities, bad planning, lack of urgency in procurement etc.

Do you honestly think NIAC are in on the conspiracy ?

Bit cynical

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you honestly think NIAC are in on the conspiracy ?

No and and I don't think it is a conspiracy as such. An opportunity is presented (anecdotal medical issues) and countries around Europe are taking political advantage of it.

Lady Spangles

Lady Spangles wrote: »

This isn't the first time the AZ vaccine has been pulled up though. As stated in the BBC report linked above, there was claims it was ineffective on a certain age group and then they were accusing Britain of either withholding the vaccine or failing to supply it to the rest of Europe etc? And it's just this one vaccine, unless there's scandals about Pfizer that I missed.

I'm not trying to say they're doing this to make Britain look bad, btw. It's just there does seem to be issues with AZ. Whatever the case, most people I know who've been vaccinated have been so with the AZ vaccine and they've all been grand beside some rough side effects.

Its ass covering by weak politicians. I don't believe for one moment that national vaccination bodies are not acting under direction from their governments

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

No and and I don't think it is a conspiracy as such. An opportunity is presented (anecdotal medical issues) and countries around Europe are taking political advantage of it.

i agree with you. It is al too convenient a diversion

Bit cynical

I think the political angle becomes clearer if we look at the UK's response. No one expects the UK to suspend AZ vaccinations in that country. Why? Because the vaccine was developed there and also because they are not embarrassed by slow rollout. Why would four cases of blood clots in Norway stop the rollout in the UK?

Sam Russell

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you honestly think NIAC are in on the conspiracy ?

If it turns out there is a problem, and a person suffers from this blood clotting, giving rise to long term harm, who do hey sue, and who pays?

I think this issue has a lot to do with this. If the EMA says all is OK, yet again, then no liability.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I see these suspensions around the EU as highly political and linked to the slow rollout of vaccines generally in the bloc. The slow rollout can now be blamed on safety issues rather than wrong priorities, bad planning, lack of urgency in procurement etc.

What would be the 'political' aim of these member states halting their own rollout of AZ vaccines? What would be the political pay off for doing it?

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

What would be the 'political' aim of these member states halting their own rollout of AZ vaccines? What would be the political pay off for doing it?

Diversion of blame for a slow rollout.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

What would be the 'political' aim of these member states halting their own rollout of AZ vaccines? What would be the political pay off for doing it?

to deflect from their own mismanagement of the vaccine rollout. Convenient to point to safety concerns and paint themselves as cautious rather than incompetent.