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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6302
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Arghus wrote: »
    So you think more interaction between more people is going to result in less cases?

    Totally missing the point.

    What matters isn't the number of cases per se, but a controlled and managed system that allows cases to increase whilst reducing hospitalizations and deaths.

    That process was managed in Europe last summer, meanwhile, the Irish population was effectively incarcerated at home.

    Ditto with the premature lockdown in October. It only fed into a system of increased demand for interaction when the 2-week safety valve was released.

    NPHET, in their infinite wisdom, did not think of this - which is a large contributory factor for the January wave.

    Your question only makes sense if a zero COVID approach is recommended. I hope you agree that such an approach is simply not possible.


  • #6303
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,463 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    This is brilliant. NPHET should be using the size of beef joint purchases as a metric for compliance, this is probably the most Irish thing I've ever heard and I love it.

    It’s true though, when you’re dealing in a local supermarket you get to know the people and their buying habits and it’s what I see everyday!


  • #6304
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    paddyisreal wrote: »
    rollout antigen testing in schools and other areas with high contact like other countries? Just 1 idea

    Genuine question - How has that being working in other countries?

    I know that Slovakia tried to use antigen testing to mass test their population in the Autumn and that didn't work - but are there other examples?

    I amn't saying antigen testing won't work, but as I understand it, there are still question marks about its overall effectiveness compared to PCR - I'm open to correction here. It's quick sure, but what about it's effectiveness?

    Also, I think antigen testing isn't necessarily a panacea, but would most likely be used in tandem with what we already have.

    I'm not shooting down your ideas - at least you put something out there in fairness and I know Antigen testing has been looked at and still is afaik - but if we're going to hang our hopes on something we would want to know completely that it absolutely works.


  • #6305
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    paddyisreal wrote: »
    Where did that figure come from?

    From the Epidemiology reports from the hpsc.
    Is it different than the figure you have for basing your belief case numbers mean nothing and ICU will be fine once all the 80+ are vaccinated?


  • #6306
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Arghus wrote: »
    Such as?

    A communications person to advise them on their messaging tbh

    Both NPHET and the government

    There has been an underlying message of " the end is near" the past couple of weeks, that then gets drowned out by Ray Walleye appalling messaging tonight, of Phillip Nolan and his 10 more weeks message last week

    Now as I've said before I've worked from home now for over a year and am not impacted financially by this and have abided by most restrictions most of the time. I can cope with another 10 or 20 weeks as I've got a routine now, so I'm not one of those people saying lift all restrictions.

    However the lack of any sort of plan beyond April 5th, combined with the news of the ongoing shambles that is the vaccine rollout (yes I know that's an EU issue) is very hard to deal with tbh

    The government more so than NPHET need to do something about the communications issue across the board


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  • #6307
    paddyisreal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    From the Epidemiology reports from the hpsc.
    Is it different than the figure you have for basing your belief case numbers mean nothing and ICU will be fine once all the 80+ are vaccinated?

    Looked at them reports, can't see your figures there. Are you saying having over 80s vaccinated will not have a massive affect on icu because it has in England and Israel ?? What makes us different?


  • #6308
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Totally missing the point.

    What matters isn't the number of cases per se, but a controlled and managed system that allows cases to increase whilst reducing hospitalizations and deaths.

    That process was managed in Europe last summer, meanwhile, the Irish population was effectively incarcerated at home.

    Ditto with the premature lockdown in October. It only fed into a system of increased demand for interaction when the 2-week safety valve was released.

    NPHET, in their infinite wisdom, did not think of this - which is a large contributory factor for the January wave.

    How can we allow cases to increase right now while reducing hospitalisations and deaths? That's not possible where we are at the moment.

    That may be possible in the medium term, as more are vaccinated, but at the moment we have a tiny proportion of the population vaccinated so growth in the number of cases will inevitability result in increased hospitalisation and death.
    Your question only makes sense if a zero COVID approach is recommended. I hope you agree that such an approach is simply not possible.

    I asked you a direct question about whether you think more interaction = more cases. Black and white stuff. Zero Covid has got nothing to do with what I was talking to you about.


  • #6309
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    paddyisreal wrote: »
    Looked at them reports, can't see your figures there. Are you saying having over 80s vaccinated will not have a massive affect on icu because it has in England and Israel ?? What makes us different?
    That's the report on page 8 there
    From this year on they changed the daily report and it doesn't have the culmative value broken down by age range, so you have to use the December 2020, which is more accurate as it's pre-vaccination rollout.

    If Israel and the UK have noticed a reduction in 80+ in ICU due to vaccinations, it means more 80+ are moved to ICU in the UK & Israel compared to Ireland.


  • #6310
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    paddyisreal wrote: »
    Looked at them reports, can't see your figures there. Are you saying having over 80s vaccinated will not have a massive affect on icu because it has in England and Israel ?? What makes us different?

    I'm fairly sure very few over 80s ended up in ICU to be fair

    Israel are seeing a huge drop in cases in over 65s as they have vaccinated about 50% of their entire population


  • #6311
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,847 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Very rough Maths here so open to correction

    That's roughly the equivalent to 220 cases in Dublin (population; 1.2 Million)?

    Today Dublin had 232

    So, there's not much a big difference between Cork and Dublin?

    The 125k is an old population number. Cork City has a population of 210k as of the border extension in 2019. There is plenty of debate on whether the border extension overestimates or continues to underestimate the actual city population (the CSO number for the urban area of Cork City has a similar number at 208k but a very different boundary) but all of this is irrelevant as NPHET uses county populations which puts Cork at 540k so cases are far lower per capita in Cork.


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  • #6312
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Stheno wrote: »
    I find this statement bizarre, it's almost victim blaming, again without any context - did anyone who watched the briefing actually here this guy say what is quoted?

    Unless he also said that there were more than 10 at the funeral or something, I don't see how he can say that people should not be going to funerals of close family

    And the "I asked her what she had learned" statement is just very poor messaging imo. "Ah so you got Covid, now what did you learn from that"?



    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0315/1204210-nphet-staying-apart/

    This is sick. There's something seriously gone awry in this country.
    I'd take being hospitalised and seriously sick to go to my two brothers funerals. Nothing would make me miss it.
    Imagine feeling 'regret' for going to celebrate the end of your two siblings lives


  • #6313
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Stheno wrote: »
    A communications person to advise them on their messaging tbh

    Both NPHET and the government

    There has been an underlying message of " the end is near" the past couple of weeks, that then gets drowned out by Ray Walleye appalling messaging tonight, of Phillip Nolan and his 10 more weeks message last week

    Now as I've said before I've worked from home now for over a year and am not impacted financially by this and have abided by most restrictions most of the time. I can cope with another 10 or 10 weeks as I've got a routine now, so I'm not one of those people saying lift all restrictions.

    However the lack of any sort of plan beyond April 5th, combined with the news of the ongoing shambles that is the vaccine rollout (yes I know that's an EU issue) is very hard to deal with tbh

    The government more so than NPHET need to do something about the communications issue across the board

    I thought that Ray Walley today wasn't great - way too blunt and hectoring. I think he struck totally the wrong tone

    Personally, I disagree with you that that the message - at least from NPHET - has been that "the end is near" over the last couple of weeks. Up until the end of last week the general message in the briefings has been "that situation is improving and just keep at it and thank you for your enormous efforts. we know how hard this is." Glynn has spent more and more time each week acknowledging that people are fed up, I think he comes across as an empathetic and well meaning man tbh.

    Philip Nolan and Ronan Glynn put that figure of 8-10 more weeks out there before we're in a better position thanks to vaccination in a sense of hopefulness! Realistically, if we're in that kind of wholly improved and lasting situation in 8-10 weeks time we'll have done very well.

    Could there be more of a plan, absolutely, but it is a dynamic situation. Government messaging and planning has led a lot to be desired, but everything was entirely dependent on vaccinations - and, for better or worse, right now, a lot of that is outside their control.

    I think the government has many faults but I also appreciate that the messaging aspect of this is a pretty difficult job too. If you say you'll lift some restrictions by a certain date, then the question becomes what about the case numbers? If you say you'll lift restrictions when things get to a certain amount of cases, then the question becomes how long will that take?

    And none of this is an exact science. We're only going to find out over the next week or two what the effect of reopening schools is - we have no idea how the dynamics or speed of the spread of the virus is going to be affected by this. It's constant steps in the dark, every move you make changes the dynamics in some way and the B117 complicates that all again. It's the nature of what we are dealing with here.

    The government can really only react to things at the end of the day - is there more they can do, absolutely - but to imagine they can effectively dictate or predict how things will pan out - that hasn't been the case for any Government anywhere - aside from those who effectively shut the virus out completely - since March 2020.


  • #6314
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Govt seeks to move sooner on banning cheap alcohol sales

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0315/1204194-alcohol-pricing-ireland/

    That's really going to encourage anybody near borders areas not to travel to Northern Ireland lol

    There will be some queues in Newry etc

    Introducing that policy in the middle of the pandemic is sure to make the government very popular


  • #6315
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Govt seeks to move sooner on banning cheap alcohol sales

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0315/1204194-alcohol-pricing-ireland/

    That's really going to encourage anybody near borders areas not to travel to Northern Ireland lol

    There will be some queues in Newry etc

    Introducing that policy in the middle of the pandemic is sure to make the government very popular

    Will certainly be a boost for pubs when they reopen. Makes ya think that's why they are rolling it out during a pandemic.


  • #6316
    Batattackrat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 222 ✭✭Batattackrat


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Govt seeks to move sooner on banning cheap alcohol sales

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0315/1204194-alcohol-pricing-ireland/

    That's really going to encourage anybody near borders areas not to travel to Northern Ireland lol

    There will be some queues in Newry etc

    Introducing that policy in the middle of the pandemic is sure to make the government very popular

    Thats fairly ridicolous, banning cheap alcohol is not gonna stop house parties.

    I say a lot of covid is passed around now via rolled up notes and passing around joints.


  • #6317
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,825 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Vintners association are working hard in the background.


  • #6318
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    The same pubs that will be shut for a minimum of July lol and haven't opened in a year in some cases

    I'm not sure how much of a boost that will be to the pubs but it will definitely encourage cross border trips


  • #6319
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Batattackrat wrote: »
    Thats fairly ridicolous, banning cheap alcohol is not gonna stop house parties.

    I say a lot of covid is passed around now via rolled up notes and passing around joints.

    All it will do is piss people off and encourage cross border trips

    Stay at home plebs

    We will keep the economy shut

    No hospitality for over half the year

    Oh and we'll also make alcohol more expensive when it's already very expensive here

    Great thinking lol


  • #6320
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    newuser99999 wrote: »
    Antigen testing in schools supermarkets factories

    Create a proper test and trace set up

    Encourage outdoor activities where it’s safer to give people something to do

    Give people some light at the end of the tunnel

    Antigen testing is not a useful a tool as people think it is.
    It is currently been tried out in most factories and this is what Dr. Lorraine Doherty of the HPSC said about it:

    "What we must understand about rapid antigen testing is that it is rapid but quite resource intensive. If there is to be twice weekly testing in meat plants it will require a dedicated resource,” she said.
    Dr Doherty also addressed the limitations of antigen tests compared to PCR tests.
    "The performance of these tests is not that good in asymptomatic people. We are keeping our overall approach to antigen testing in this sector under review.”

    This testing is carried out in this setting in conjugation with pcr and dedicated public health teams because there have been so many cases in this meat factories.

    It cannot be just rolled out to every school and supermarket.
    It needs to be done by proper personnel. It is incredibly time consuming to do it regularly and at such a scale. Compliance would also be a huge issue in schools. Are parents going to consent to their child being tested so regularly. I doubt it.


  • #6321
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    The same pubs that will be shut for a minimum of July lol and haven't opened in a year in some cases

    I'm not sure how much of a boost that will be to the pubs but it will definitely encourage cross border trips

    Why go cross border, just go to a wholesalers. Isn't the minimum price determined on the end product supplied to the public and not from the wholesaler or distributer?
    Anyways we're completely OT.


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  • #6322
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Govt seeks to move sooner on banning cheap alcohol sales

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0315/1204194-alcohol-pricing-ireland/

    That's really going to encourage anybody near borders areas not to travel to Northern Ireland lol

    There will be some queues in Newry etc

    Introducing that policy in the middle of the pandemic is sure to make the government very popular

    Qantas may as well launch direct Dublin-Australia flights for the young people of this country at this stage.

    If this happens who could afford rent and drink?


  • #6323
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,812 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Arghus wrote: »
    Reading through the thread the last couple of days it's reminding me a lot of the end of November/beginning of December.

    People are fed up and pissed off and are chafing at what they are hearing from NPHET.

    People's frustration is completely understandable - everyone is mentally worn out and sick of putting their lives on hold.

    But, unfortunately what NPHET is saying is essentially true - the same as it was back in November - if people ignore or stop heeding the public health advice cases will rise and we'll be in a worse position all over again. There's no getting around that. They can't change that message, it's the truth.

    Maybe, sadly, after a period, the only thing that encourages compliance is a rise in case numbers.

    How will we be in a worse position?

    Many vulnerable are now vaccinated, unless the vaccine doesn’t work, we will unlikely have as many vulnerable unprotected as last Christmas


  • #6324
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Why go cross border, just go to a wholesalers. Isn't the minimum price determined on the end product supplied to the public and not from the wholesaler or distributer?
    Anyways we're completely OT.

    Most people don't have access to a wholesaler

    Easier to go to the likes of Tesco, Sainsburys etc over the border


  • #6325
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,812 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Stheno wrote: »
    A communications person to advise them on their messaging tbh

    Both NPHET and the government

    There has been an underlying message of " the end is near" the past couple of weeks, that then gets drowned out by Ray Walleye appalling messaging tonight, of Phillip Nolan and his 10 more weeks message last week

    Now as I've said before I've worked from home now for over a year and am not impacted financially by this and have abided by most restrictions most of the time. I can cope with another 10 or 20 weeks as I've got a routine now, so I'm not one of those people saying lift all restrictions.

    However the lack of any sort of plan beyond April 5th, combined with the news of the ongoing shambles that is the vaccine rollout (yes I know that's an EU issue) is very hard to deal with tbh

    The government more so than NPHET need to do something about the communications issue across the board

    I haven’t seen many people on these forums suggesting to lift all restrictions

    From the comments I’ve seen they must be rather common


  • #6326
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Arghus wrote: »
    I thought that Ray Walley today wasn't great - way too blunt and hectoring. I think he struck totally the wrong tone

    Personally, I disagree with you that that the message - at least from NPHET - has been that "the end is near" over the last couple of weeks. Up until the end of last week the general message in the briefings has been "that situation is improving and just keep at it and thank you for your enormous efforts. we know how hard this is." Glynn has spent more and more time each week acknowledging that people are fed up, I think he comes across as an empathetic and well meaning man tbh.

    Philip Nolan and Ronan Glynn put that figure of 8-10 more weeks out there before we're in a better position thanks to vaccination in a sense of hopefulness! Realistically, if we're in that kind of wholly improved and lasting situation in 8-10 weeks time we'll have done very well.

    Could there be more of a plan, absolutely, but it is a dynamic situation. Government messaging and planning has led a lot to be desired, but everything was entirely dependent on vaccinations - and, for better or worse, right now, a lot of that is outside their control.

    I think the government has many faults but I also appreciate that the messaging aspect of this is a pretty difficult job too. If you say you'll lift some restrictions by a certain date, then the question becomes what about the case numbers? If you say you'll lift restrictions when things get to a certain amount of cases, then the question becomes how long will that take?

    And none of this is an exact science. We're only going to find out over the next week or two what the effect of reopening schools is - we have no idea how the dynamics or speed of the spread of the virus is going to be affected by this. It's constant steps in the dark, every move you make changes the dynamics in some way and the B117 complicates that all again. It's the nature of what we are dealing with here.

    The government can really only react to things at the end of the day - is there more they can do, absolutely - but to imagine they can effectively dictate or predict how things will pan out - that hasn't been the case for any Government anywhere - aside from those who effectively shut the virus out completely - since March 2020.

    On the 8-10 weeks, Phillip Nolan referenced 10-20 weeks

    On the government plan, I never asked for dates, I asked for a coherent plan and coherent messaging

    On "the end is near" Glynn himself said either last week or the week before
    Ireland could return to “close to” normal by the end of the year if “everything goes well” with Covid-19 vaccine supply and uptake and the control of new variants, according to deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

    Though there was no certainty, people have “good reason to be hopeful” and we could be “in a good place” by the end of the summer, he told the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) briefing on Thursday night.

    Dr Glynn cited the positive effects of vaccination already evident and the imminent arrival of more good vaccines, as well as “phenomenal” compliance with public health guidelines.

    There is “early and clear evidence” of the protective effect of vaccination in long-term care facilities, where there has been a “sudden and sharp” decrease in cases, the briefing heard. The number of cases has dropped from 1,250 to 200 in three weeks.

    Among healthcare workers, infections have fallen “precipitously” – down 93 per cent from mid-January compared to a 77 per cent fall in infections overall.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-ireland-could-be-close-to-normal-by-end-of-year-says-dr-ronan-glynn-1.4495398%3fmode=amp
    So I don't agree with your rebuttal tbh, nor your assertion that no plan can be communicated

    If the effective CMO can come out and say we could be in a good place by Summer, why can't that be defined?

    Instead we get that on April 5th construction might reopen, the 5k might be extended.

    Something is gravely amiss here


  • #6327
    User142
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 247 ✭✭User142


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/nphet-discussed-penalising-people-failing-to-self-isolate-or-restrict-movements-last-month-1.4511329

    From a meeting last month....

    The minutes also show internal modelling – published at the time in letters to Government - overestimated how much cases would come down. Modelling showed to the meeting suggested that there would be between 100 and 300 cases per day by yesterday, March 15th, when there were 575 cases reported.

    The end is not near. The message from recent times that we were close is based on models that are wrong. As a man pretty senior in government asked on television in October. What happens if Level 5 does not work....


  • #6328
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    How will we be in a worse position?

    Many vulnerable are now vaccinated, unless the vaccine doesn’t work, we will unlikely have as many vulnerable unprotected as last Christmas

    I don't think we'll return to anything like post numbers again Christmas again - that isn't what I mean.

    I mean a worse position relative to where we are now. If the numbers are as they are today on April 5th, I'll be very surprised if restrictions are eased to any meaningful extent.


  • #6329
    wheresthebeef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 887 ✭✭✭wheresthebeef


    User142 wrote: »
    The end is not near. The message from recent times that we were close is based on models that are wrong. As a man pretty senior in government asked on television in October. What happens if Level 5 does not work....

    Would there be anything to be said for adding a few more levels?


  • #6330
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,071 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    wheresthebeef wrote: »
    Would there be anything to be said for adding a few more levels?

    Got to weld people into their homes I reckon. That'll work.


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  • #6331
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,283 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    I don’t know! He was very blunt, not very welcoming, certainly wouldn’t want him as my GP anyway. He was very dismissive as where Glynn and Nolan. Hate saying this but they were playing the don’t be bold now boys and girls for the next couple of months or this won’t work card!

    I totally disagree.
    That GP was awful for what he said and total cringeworthy .
    Glynn and Nolan were the opposite and went in the opposite direction just asking people not to gather for Paddy's and Easter .
    Did you watch the briefing ?

    https://subscriptions.boards.ie/



This discussion has been closed.
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