When will it all end?

Scotty # wrote: »

Case numbers mean nothing, CFR is irrelevant. Deaths are no indication of anything. Modelling doesn't work... etc, etc, etc.

At one point or another every measurable yard stick has been rubbished by the anti-restriction argument. Can I ask, if all the data is irrelevant, on what information are you actually forming your opinions? Genuinely curious to know.

It's really not that hard. ICU numbers; which are way down, hospital numbers; which are way down and deaths; which are way down.

There's no point in looking at any numbers other than those and the first two we look at, mainly because of our inefficient poorly run health sector. Which coincidentally makes up the vast majority of Nphet.

To wait for Nphet to recommend decreasing restrictions would be to wait until they are capable of running the HSE efficiently. When do you think that will be?!

aido79 wrote: »

Sweden got lucky in my opinion. They may have avoided lockdown but not everything is sunshine and roses there either as you can see from articles like this:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/12/13/sweden-frontline-health-care-workers-quitting-covid/amp/

There are plenty of other articles that show how close Sweden came to real problems.

It's very difficult to compare other country's covid measures as every country done things differently and reacted to peaks at different times.

A few months ago people on Facebook were championing Poland and Italy for defying restrictions and opening up. Now they seem to be 2 of the countries in Europe heading for stricter lockdowns. In fact the numbers in most countries in Europe seem to be going in the opposite direction to the numbers in Ireland.

What in your opinion has happened here?

Not diasgreeing that Sweden had issues but they have managed to avoid the most draconian restrictions and really on balance haven't done badly accepting (and they admit this and many other countries have made identical mistakes) that they didn't protect nursing homes at all.

I think we have moved into a period now where countries see light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines and it's human nature to 'hang in there' now until populations are vaccinated. Inevitably this means you go back to restrictions like we are seeing in Italy and Poland etc.

Look while I don't like what has happened, it's happened and I'm also a realist and fully understand now it's politically impossible for countries to lift restrictions without a significant chunk of the population vaccinated. The populations themselves are in many areas so scared that they won't accept it.

The worry for me is that we don't at somepoint move past all restrictions in the mid term and we end up with invasive restrictions or impositions on our lives even after vaccination has reached a good chunk of our populations.

What I hope happens is a point where we say have done all we can (post vaccination) and draw a line in the sand and say jog on and we accept that we will have hospitalizations and deaths from this virus indefinitely in the risk group but as these will be modest we just have to jog on.

If we can't get to this point of just accepting the above and moving on we will do lasting damage to the very perception of risk v life and end up living in some OCD dystopian health and safety course. I fear we already have changed to a point of no return in someways but not clearly moving back to 'normality' once the vaccine roleout is well along the curve we risk changing so much more.

Scotty # wrote: »

Case numbers mean nothing, CFR is irrelevant. Deaths are no indication of anything. Modelling doesn't work... etc, etc, etc.

At one point or another every measurable yard stick has been rubbished by the anti-restriction argument. Can I ask, if all the data is irrelevant, on what information are you actually forming your opinions? Genuinely curious to know.

Okay fair question - personally I look at three bits of data as being important yardsticks for assessing risk with this virus.

i) ICU Admissions as I think anyone in ICU is in significant trouble.
ii) Deaths attributed to Covid.
iii) Average Age of Death and Underlying Health Conditions.

What I have seen is quite clear - the vast bulk of people who end up in hospital or dead are either very elderly or have underlying health conditions.

Data is clearly showing to me that the risk is negligible for huge sections of our populations. You also have to bear in mind we have an incredibly elderly and frail population and it's an easy target for a virus like this - bizarrely this very defined section of our population (in nursing homes) we have totally failed to protect but you also have to (and I know this sounds morbid) remember how we behaved before - when a 90 year old with dementia or a poor quality of life died in the past from flu or pneumonia etc etc it was viewed as a release - dieing from Covid and it's now a tragedy. Why the change ?

Median age of death in Ireland is when I last checked the CSO data is 84. That means so many of our Covid dead were 80 plus. I have elderly parents myself and I would prefer them not to die from Covid or any other respiratory disease but something will soon get them and it's not a tragedy, they have had a great life and death is inevitable.

Case numbers for me are hard to quantify or hard to draw much information from as it depends on testing and we still don't know (and never will) the amount of people who are asymptomatic or with such mild symptoms they never get tested.

I also for the same reason place little faith in the R number - it's just a finger in the air number and unscientific. Test more and it goes up.....etc etc.

CFR/IFR is unknown as we don't know how many people have had covid so again it's just a finger in the air and any figure we have for CFR or IFR is a wild over estimation of how lethal this virus is as so many have had it but don't show up in 'case' figures.

The Big Easy wrote: »

It's really not that hard.

You missed the memo too! :D

The Big Easy wrote: »

ICU numbers; which are way down, hospital numbers; which are way down and deaths; which are way down.

ICU and acute cases would be my go to indicators too. Not so much deaths. Not the actual numbers themselves but how they are trending. Well, maybe the actual number for ICU as we have quite a low normal capacity (225).

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Okay fair question -
What I have seen is quite clear - the vast bulk of people who end up in hospital or dead are either very elderly or have underlying health conditions.

Data is clearly showing to me that the risk is negligible for huge sections of our populations.
Case numbers for me are hard to quantify or hard to draw much information from

Thanks for the proper answer. I'd largely agree. While I very much agree that covid in itself is extremely low risk to most of us, I consider it to be a significant threat to our health service when the numbers are going the wrong way. For me, this is the only justification for ever having restrictions.

wotzgoingon wrote: »

This was probably discussed already but see that young one who brought the garda on a chase up and down the M50. Leaving her 5 km and then leaving her 5km a second time to go to the airport and then leaving the country and discussed about leaving the country to a newspaper before she left.

I hope they fine the **** out of her and better yet throw her in jail for some time.

Me here stuck to this lockdown and all previous and the likes of her able to do as she pleases. Off on holidays sipping champagne will driving recklessly before hand too.

Ah she will spin a sob story in court and turn on the waterworks. Next case please.

Drifter50 wrote: »

What planet are you on ??? Making such a comment shows how little you consider anything except your own view of the current situation

468,000 on PUP
188,500 on live register
410,000 employees availing of the TWSS

Thats a million people. Do you think "life has carried on " for all these people ?
So the subsidies might feed you, your family and keep the lights and heat on but they don`t pay the mortgage, the car loans, the credit card etc etc

Cop yourself on, you`re a disgrace

Are you trying to tell me that everyone on the PUP payment is suicidal or suffering serious mental health issues?? Get a grip!

The live register is almost exactly the same as it was for the same month in 2020. Up from 184k to 188k.

468,000 is less than 20% of the workforce. So for the other 80% (ie. the vast majority!) it's business as usual.

bucketybuck wrote: »

You continue to repeat this tripe, clearly you are not posting honestly here.

Look at the CSO stats. Unemployment up 4k from pre covid and 81% still working during covid.

the kelt wrote: »

Where do they even mention anything about suicide or mental health issues?

My response that it was a tiny proportion was in response to someone else earlier today saying something about those suffering with mental health and businesses closing. Yes, of course some people are struggling with their situation. But IMO, it;s a small proportion. Most people are just getting on with it.

Deleted User wrote: »

20% is still a significant portion of the workforce.

Exactly!

I mean February 2020 we had an unemployment rate of 4.8% now it’s literally 20% more. By what logic is that a tiny proportion?

Scotty # wrote: »

Are you trying to tell me that everyone on the PUP payment is suicidal or suffering serious mental health issues?? Get a grip!

The live register is almost exactly the same as it was for the same month in 2020. Up from 184k to 188k.

468,000 is less than 20% of the workforce. So for the other 80% (ie. the vast majority!) it's business as usual.

Scotty seriously please.

I can think of 6 people I know who are self employed scraping bits of work at a tiny fraction of what they did before but are still trading and as such can't claim the PUP.

Suggest you move on from this one rapidly.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Seemingly Professor Nolan thinks we're in a similar situation to Halloween.
It's about time the media stopped publicizing his brain farts, We've vaccines and we're just about to come out of our traditional flu season, it's nothing like halloween.

Well he does increasingly sound like a ghoul.Has he been promoted unofficially recently?He seems to have become front and centre whereas he used to be just dusted off every thursday.Bizarrely he seems to think phrases like 20 weeks more are fine for people to hear,His talk of gusts of wind and halloween -is he writing a 5th class essay about "my most scary day"?An arrogant windbag with a condescending patronising attitude.I genuinely think these press conferences are totally a toxic element for peoples mental health at this stage.

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Not diasgreeing that Sweden had issues but they have managed to avoid the most draconian restrictions and really on balance haven't done badly accepting (and they admit this and many other countries have made identical mistakes) that they didn't protect nursing homes at all.

I think we have moved into a period now where countries see light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines and it's human nature to 'hang in there' now until populations are vaccinated. Inevitably this means you go back to restrictions like we are seeing in Italy and Poland etc.

Look while I don't like what has happened, it's happened and I'm also a realist and fully understand now it's politically impossible for countries to lift restrictions without a significant chunk of the population vaccinated. The populations themselves are in many areas so scared that they won't accept it.

The worry for me is that we don't at somepoint move past all restrictions in the mid term and we end up with invasive restrictions or impositions on our lives even after vaccination has reached a good chunk of our populations.

What I hope happens is a point where we say have done all we can (post vaccination) and draw a line in the sand and say jog on and we accept that we will have hospitalizations and deaths from this virus indefinitely in the risk group but as these will be modest we just have to jog on.

If we can't get to this point of just accepting the above and moving on we will do lasting damage to the very perception of risk v life and end up living in some OCD dystopian health and safety course. I fear we already have changed to a point of no return in someways but not clearly moving back to 'normality' once the vaccine roleout is well along the curve we risk changing so much more.

You're right about needing to look at it from a realist point of view. With vaccination so close no government will want to take the chance of collapsing their health system instead of holding out for the sake of a couple of months. It would be political suicide for the Irish government to go make the decisions they've made over the past year and then f$%k it all up right at the end.

Covid will most likely be an endemic disease but the attitude towards it will change due to vaccinations as less people die and hospital admissions drop.

Masks have been used in Asia for years to limit the spread of cold and flu and it has been shown to have a positive effect on the spread of cold and flu in Ireland this winter so I don't think it be a bad idea for people with flu or cold symptoms to wear masks going forward.

Other than that I think people and life will return to normal given time.