Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

Hector Savage · 15-03-2021 03:17PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

China, NZ, Australia, Denmark, Norway, Finland and others would tend to disagree with you there, Hector.

I'm not aware of the article in Nature, but I strongly suspect you're misconstruing the findings. Throw up a link and I'll give it a read.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1

Thing about Norway for example and comparing them to Sweden, issue is they are comparing COVID deaths, what about death rate in general ?

You would expect a slight rise, we are in the midst of a pandemic after all, but no where near as extreme as predicted.

Again it seems deaths are OK, so long as it's not COVID deaths.

TonyMaloney · 15-03-2021 03:18PM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

To be fair Graham, I don’t know about your own experience but that post is fairly reflective of what I was hearing among the ordinary man and woman last year. People really did believe that tens of thousands were going to die without lockdown, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many still do.

Didn’t Sam McConkey predict something like 80,000 to over 100,000 deaths?

So how many people would have died here without restrictions and lockdowns, Arthur?

AlekSmart · 15-03-2021 03:23PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Wera_Hobhouse/status/1371007388128542721

*ignores the fact protests have been banned all year until she tried protesting and now doesn't like restrictions*

She'll get the chance to put her money where her typing finger is very soon...

The UK establishment is making steady progress at tying up loose ends and returning to Policing a lá the Miners Strike......

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-factsheets/police-crime-sentencing-and-courts-bill-2021-protest-powers-factsheet

OwenM · 15-03-2021 03:34PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

About 60% that have received a first dose. 50% have received the second.

They, like most countries, are aiming for herd-immunity via vaccination. I can't recall exactly, but you need 70-80% of your population dosed up in order to achieve it depending on the variants that are circulating.

Israel have a sizeable minority who are not keen on vaccines, so while they've obviously flown out of the blocks, they may really struggle to get to herd-immunity. Hence I guess why they decided to use vaccine certs as a carrot.

This is what we and most other countries are seeking to do. If you're expecting us to open up once the obviously vulnerable people are vaccinated, you're going to be very disappointed.

Once cohorts 1 through 7 are done I am expecting us to open up, I would expect deaths and hospitalisations to be a tiny fraction of what they were and indeed we had no deaths yesterday.

ingo1984 · 15-03-2021 03:34PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

So there is some kind of march on tomorrow in Dublin in memory of Sarah Everard. Will be interesting to see the garda response to this gathering vs the large operation planned to suppress protests against lockdown on Paddys Day. No doubt it will expose a massive double standard in attitude towards different protests, but we'll wait and see, I really wouldn't be surprised even a bit if it is allowed go ahead in full form tomorrow though. Especially after London police getting so much slack for breaking up the vigil in London over COVID regulations

There will be no garda enforcement like a few weeks ago. Be the same as the BLM march or the protests in blanchardstown when the young lad was shot.

Seweryn · 15-03-2021 03:35PM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Didn’t Sam McConkey predict something like 80,000 to over 100,000 deaths?

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

OwenM · 15-03-2021 03:42PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

And McConkey predicted 1000 dead from swine flu, 27 died.

Why are government believing epidemiological forecasts from people who aren't epidemiologists and have a history of getting them wrong by several orders of magnitude. And no, we didn't lock down for swine flu.

Whatsisname · 15-03-2021 03:43PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

Ferguson also broke his own lockdown advice to go get a shag. And also stated in an interview that "we never thought we'd get away with it" referring to western society adopting China's lockdown policy. Guy is a crook.

ArthurDayne · 15-03-2021 04:14PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

So how many people would have died here without restrictions and lockdowns, Arthur?

Well, with far less stringent restrictions than our own, Sweden had something like 7,000 excess deaths in 2020. So I guess then it’s a question of asking how Ireland would have fared with the exact same level of restrictions — and I think it’s fair to say that even if we were being harsh and saying that Irish culture is a galaxy apart from Sweden’s, anything above 7,000 excess Irish deaths for 2020 is still pretty damn harsh considering their population is double ours (and I think Stockholm and Dublin areas have somewhat similar population density). Even if we went unbelievably gung-ho harsh and just assumed Ireland would have had 14,000 excess deaths for 2020 (so something like twice the excess deaths of Sweden with only half their population — which is very, very harsh) then we are only approaching the kind of numbers which authorities were telling us we would be hitting only for things like 2-5km exercise limits etc.

The question of the number without any restrictions at all (which is not a position I advocated) is harder to get a handle of, though one imagines that if the death rate was shocking and swift then people would have changed behaviour out of sheer fear. It may even be the case that the virus might have killed the same number as it already has but only in a far shorter window (which obviously would have had implications for capacity). I think it’s hard to know right now until we have some sort of hindsight whether the death toll was dramatically reduced by the level of lockdown we had, or merely dramatically slowed (it might be the end of this year before we can get a handle on whether mortality displacement was extant).

But overall, the sort of numbers that were really scaring people were the ones being touted by authoritative people like McConkey (who was going 80k+) and that seems to be pretty significantly over-baked even if one can’t be completely certain.

Penfailed · 15-03-2021 04:20PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Yeah what is it with the sign language thing ?
Last I read 4% of the population are hard of hearing ? surely subtitling is the way to go ...

Are you trying to do someone out of a job? :P

PTH2009 · 15-03-2021 04:22PM

How will people relax when we reopen if the media pull the 'leo says another full lockdown could be weeks away' stuff

hynesie08 · 15-03-2021 04:28PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

How will people relax when we reopen if the media pull the 'leo says another full lockdown could be weeks away' stuff

We just won't make up scenarios in our heads and then get angry at those scenarios.

You could try it.

suicide_circus · 15-03-2021 05:10PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

Follow the science!

walus · 15-03-2021 05:14PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

Let's hope that Ferguson and McConkey decommission their Ataris soon.

themacattack. · 15-03-2021 05:16PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

How will people relax when we reopen if the media pull the 'leo says another full lockdown could be weeks away' stuff

everytime they open something they need to come out with certanity and confidance and say this industry is open and will never close again....none of this wishy washy well lets see how it goes and fingers and toes crossed....we have vaccines the roll out is slow but once the vulnerable are done that should be it...covid should be treated like the flu...no more counting cases...nphet pressers ect....i think if the april announcement is another damp squib from micheal martin the population will be done...

Parachutes · 15-03-2021 05:17PM

One things for sure, I'll never take liberty for granted ever again. Any small trust I have of Government is gone.

15-03-2021 05:19PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, he did.

"Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths."

But he wasn't the only one. Have a look at Neil Ferguson, who is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College, London.

Ferguson appears to be the man behind the UK Government policy. When he warns, the Government listens. Same here with our NPHET experts.

But look at his track record:

- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK the death total was 177.
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial advised the Government that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.

Finally, Ferguson has admitted that his model of the C-19 is based on some undocumented 13-year-old computer code intended for use with an influenza epidemic.

Has anyone questioned Ferguson’s work on C-19, despite the fact that if he is wrong again, no?

So, all in all... Why are the Governments following these "experts" advices? It is an interesting question.

Not to defend McConkey, more so to point out misrepresentation - the linked article clearly calls out a median case scenario of 20k dead. If no-one else were to get vaccinated it would be very plausible that deaths would exceed 20k

Graham · 15-03-2021 05:21PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Not to defend McConkey, more so to point out misrepresentation - the linked article clearly calls out a Medium case scenario of 20k deak. If no-one else were to get vaccinated it would be very plausible that deaths would exceed 20k

It's surprising the number of people that think worse case scenario means "this is going to happen".

Seweryn · 15-03-2021 05:21PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

Follow the science!

Science... There has been no science. Unless we stand up and fight these lies we will never go back to normal.

Even when millions have been vac-nated they will tell us that the unsocial distancing, the masks and the lockdowns must continue. The science doesn’t support these things. If there were any science then the rules would be the same everywhere in the world and we would be told to apply the measures right at the beginning, not half way through.

The drug companies say that when two vaccinations are required, the second should be given 21 days after the first. But in the UK, the Government has decided that the second dose can be given 12 weeks later. Why? Science?

You can make the list as long as you wish, but in one word - there is no science here. They’re just making it up as they go along.

Seweryn · 15-03-2021 05:24PM

Graham wrote: »

It's surprising the number of people that think worse case scenario means "this is going to happen".

Are you talking about the Government and their advisors? Probably, because they still act exactly as if the worst case scenario is about to happen.

charlie_says · 15-03-2021 05:25PM

SnuggyBear wrote: »

I'm properly pissed off now. The thoughts of another lockdown in winter is so depressing. I've talked to people who are saying this life is not worth living and it's hard not agree with them.

We all know deep down that this government will put restrictions on Christmas 2021.

Many will support it.

I think we will see more public division than the water charges debacle.

walus · 15-03-2021 05:27PM

Seweryn wrote: »

Science... There has been no science. Unless we stand up and fight these lies we will never go back to normal.

Even when millions have been vac-nated they will tell us that the unsocial distancing, the masks and the lockdowns must continue. The science doesn’t support these things. If there were any science then the rules would be the same everywhere in the world and we would be told to apply the measures right at the beginning, not half way through.

The drug companies say that when two vaccinations are required, the second should be given 21 days after the first. But in the UK, the Government has decided that the second dose can be given 12 weeks later. Why? Science?

You can make the list as long as you wish, but in one word - there is no science here. They’re just making it up as they go along.

Side effects, I'd say. It is an experiment after all.

timmyntc · 15-03-2021 05:38PM

Graham wrote: »

It's surprising the number of people that think worse case scenario means "this is going to happen".

The only way that "worst case scenario" could happen is if a whole nuclear subs crew were to die from covid and the sub crashed in Dublin port.

Pie in the sky stuff

JDxtra · 15-03-2021 05:40PM

NI storming ahead with vaccinations. Well done to them.

https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1371425603228930048

Do we have a system ready for online bookings if and when we get to the stage they are at now?

Also note the venues they are using - leisure centres. Exactly as I saw on the news last week when Boris did a visit. The people inside were just all spaced out and can see each other and when they are next. Why have we built little cubicles inside the Helix? This is overkill and will slow the process down.

The UK have clearly recognised that the significant factor here is speed. They’ve done their planning, and are now all hands on deck – whatever it takes – to get through as many vaccinations as possible each day.

We just seem to bogged down with no end in sight.

15-03-2021 05:43PM

walus wrote: »

Side effects, I'd say. It is an experiment after all.

Horsesh*t, id say.

15-03-2021 05:47PM

timmyntc wrote: »

The only way that "worst case scenario" could happen is if a whole nuclear subs crew were to die from covid and the sub crashed in Dublin port.

Pie in the sky stuff

Again, clearly called out in the article - if the IFR was 3% and the attack rate was 80%. That was over a year ago when so little was known a 3% IFR was not beyond the bounds of speculation.

Allinall · 15-03-2021 05:49PM

JDxtra wrote: »

NI storming ahead with vaccinations. Well done to them.

https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1371425603228930048

Do we have a system ready for online bookings if and when we get to the stage they are at now?

Also note the venues they are using - leisure centres. Exactly as I saw on the news last week when Boris did a visit. The people inside were just all spaced out and can see each other and when they are next. Why have we built little cubicles inside the Helix? This is overkill and will slow the process down.

The UK have clearly recognised that the significant factor here is speed. They’ve done their planning, and are now all hands on deck – whatever it takes – to get through as many vaccinations as possible each day.

We just seem to bogged down with no end in sight.

We're administering the vast majority of the vaccines in the week that we receive them.

How can we do it any quicker?

JDxtra · 15-03-2021 05:53PM

Allinall wrote: »

We're administering the vast majority of the vaccines in the week that we receive them.

How can we do it any quicker?

Even if we had supplies, I don't see us being able to cope and get them out quickly. Too bureaucratic and ultra cautious.

I keep hearing that the HSE use 95% of the vaccines within a week. Sorry, but that to me is a poor statistic. Why is not closer to 100% and within 2 or 3 days? How exactly are they going to scale up when supplies start flowing?

Allinall · 15-03-2021 05:55PM

JDxtra wrote: »

Even if we had supplies, I don't see us being able to cope and get them out quickly. Too bureaucratic and ultra cautious.

I keep hearing that the HSE use 95% of the vaccines within a week. Sorry, but that to me is a poor statistic. Why is not closer to 100% and within 2 or 3 days? How exactly are they going to scale up when supplies start flowing?

As I understand it, they have facilities and staff to scale up if and when necessary.

bb1234567 · 15-03-2021 05:57PM

Oh my god on newstalk the opinion texts that came in in response to the lockdown protests . We are never getting out of this lockdown

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings