2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

The_Conductor · 14-03-2021 06:47PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The Irish solution to all problems - more tax.

My solution is less tax, increasing the available consumption capability of people so they can better afford housing and consumption, leading to increased economic activity.

The potential buyer of one of my properties recently said the bank had rejected her first loan application but her second has the verbal nod, so my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

PropQueries · 14-03-2021 07:19PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

I just looked up Jobseeker's Benefit in 2010 and today. It was €196 in 2010 and it's €203 today.

Wouldn't that mean that the living standards of the unemployed have fallen significantly in real terms over the past ten years, which contradicts the narrative from some quarters that they're creaming it?

Given that social welfare (as the layman understands it) comprises a very small percentage of the budget, I just don't see any real savings to made there IMO

I also don't see how property taxes can be increased to such a level to make any difference.

They did come after our pensions last time. Does anyone have any ideas on how they will come after our savings which they appear to be keeping too close an eye on recently IMO

ExMachina1000 · 14-03-2021 07:29PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I just looked up Jobseeker's Benefit in 2010 and today. It was €196 in 2010 and it's €203 today.

Wouldn't that mean that the living standards of the unemployed have fallen significantly in real terms over the past ten years, which contradicts the narrative from some quarters that they're creaming it?

Given that social welfare (as the layman understands it) comprises a very small percentage of the budget, I just don't see any real savings to made there IMO

I also don't see how property taxes can be increased to such a level to make any difference.

They did come after our pensions last time. Does anyone have any ideas on how they will come after our savings which they appear to be keeping too close an eye on recently IMO

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Villa05 · 14-03-2021 07:35PM

ExMachina1000 wrote:

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Our housing policy has closed that particular door. A large portion of these people will be renting, there will be little scope to extract any more blood from that stone

PropQueries · 14-03-2021 07:36PM

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Unfortunately that can't work due to the rapid rise in the cost of living for the lower income groups (e.g. rent etc.) over the past number of years. Contrary to the narrative, they really have nothing left to hand over in most cases.

All that would happen would be that the state would have to supplement their wages IMO

Even Simon Coveney stated a few months ago that "there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

They really are going to have to think outside the box on this one and the only source I see are our savings.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

Hubertj · 14-03-2021 08:13PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

cnocbui · 14-03-2021 08:19PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

Agree with the gist, but I diagree with the idea I am going to have to pay for it. Not my debt, I'm off, and thanks for all the fish.

I havve to laugh at the tax more angle. We have the second highest CGT, One of the highest VAT rates. The highest inheritance tax rates. We have hidden sneaky stuff like levies on every form of insurance, we have the second most expensive car operating costs in the EU, which is mostly tax induced, including probably the most egregious gouge of all, VRT. And so it goes. What we never see, and which is the thing most needed, is any mention of reducing government expenditure, together with increased taxation of large companies. I know that's probably the biggest holy cow in the country, after the Catholic pedophilery, but it's why personal taxation has to be so high.

Irish governments are incapable of hard decisions; like cutting public service benefits and numbers; reposessing houses from defaulters; becoming less reliant on being a tax haven for US multinationals; looking at the cost of CO2 reduction targets and just saying nope; widening the tax base; fixing the legal system to make it cheaper for everyone, particularly the government itself.

I ran the numbers of your batshit crazy property tax proposal for my circumstances. I would be left with €4 K a year for 3 people to live on and my tax burden would be 85.3 % of my income.

But, hey, knock yourself out trying to squeeze more out of the stone (broke) middle incomers - I'll send you a post card.

Yurt2 · 14-03-2021 08:21PM

Hubertj wrote: »

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

Had a look there, there are clawback provisions if the house is sold withing a certain time period, usually 10-20 years (nothing unusual in that, standard terms for a publicly built unit).

The_Conductor · 14-03-2021 08:30PM

Hubertj wrote: »

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

Parts of the public sector are already quite slim in comparison to other OECD countries. Also- the 2% payrise is for a 2 year period to February 2023- during which time the rate of inflation is predicted to be 2.7% see here In light of the fact that the payrise is below the predicted rate of inflation- it is a cut in real terms.

Yes- there are too many admin staff- or even technical or medical staff in admin roles- we do need a seachange. We were promised a seachange in the HSE- when the old healthboards were abolished- however, instead of the predicted savings on admin and overheads- instead we ended up with bloat.

No politicians have the gonads to tackle this- indeed, some politicians actively defend it.

Hubertj wrote: »

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

Fine Gael came out swinging on Twitter during the week- on the premise that Fine Gael was helping people to own houses, while Sinn Féin was only leasing houses to them. Either way- its nonsense- its largess from a government who don't have two brass farthings to rub against one another- trying to outdo each other and see who can promise the most ridiculous goodies to prospective voters.

People have no cognisance of just how much trouble this county is in- and how we are not going to be given the latitude that many politicians imagine they will have if/when they are voted in on promises of bestowing goodies on their constituents.

We are our own worst enemies.

cnocbui · 14-03-2021 08:52PM

The PS should not get a pay rise based in inflation! It should, at the extreme, only be based on the actual wage inflation of the non-PS sector. It's beyond rubbery to base real world benefits on future predictions. Wait for the real figures.

Hubertj · 14-03-2021 08:55PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Parts of the public sector are already quite slim in comparison to other OECD countries. Also- the 2% payrise is for a 2 year period to February 2023- during which time the rate of inflation is predicted to be 2.7% see here In light of the fact that the payrise is below the predicted rate of inflation- it is a cut in real terms.

Yes- there are too many admin staff- or even technical or medical staff in admin roles- we do need a seachange. We were promised a seachange in the HSE- when the old healthboards were abolished- however, instead of the predicted savings on admin and overheads- instead we ended up with bloat.

No politicians have the gonads to tackle this- indeed, some politicians actively defend it.

Fine Gael came out swinging on Twitter during the week- on the premise that Fine Gael was helping people to own houses, while Sinn Féin was only leasing houses to them. Either way- its nonsense- its largess from a government who don't have two brass farthings to rub against one another- trying to outdo each other and see who can promise the most ridiculous goodies to prospective voters.

People have no cognisance of just how much trouble this county is in- and how we are not going to be given the latitude that many politicians imagine they will have if/when they are voted in on promises of bestowing goodies on their constituents.

We are our own worst enemies.

Too many vested interests in the public sector. No political party will take on and break the control unions have over public services.

Regarding the promises of parties in relation to housing, isn’t populism a wonderful thing.

hometruths · 14-03-2021 09:09PM

Hubertj wrote: »

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

The Sinn Fein policy is actually a pretty good one to be fair. There are two conditions attached:

The property can never be rented out on the private rented market, and it can never be sold on the open market at an unaffordable price. If the owner wants to sell the home, it must be sold back into the affordable housing scheme to another affordable purchaser at the future affordable housing price.

So basically if affordability is your biggest concern, buy a house in this scheme. Happy days.

If investment is more of a factor and you're looking for income or capital gains, then sorry this is not for you. Fair enough.

FGs attacks on it shows their mindset that they see rising property prices as the only game in town and compounding the current problems.

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

This is an altogether better approach.

Hubertj · 14-03-2021 09:27PM

schmittel wrote: »

The Sinn Fein policy is actually a pretty good one to be fair. There are two conditions attached:

So basically if affordability is your biggest concern, buy a house in this scheme. Happy days.

If investment is more of a factor and you're looking for income or capital gains, then sorry this is not for you. Fair enough.

FGs attacks on it shows their mindset that they see rising property prices as the only game in town and compounding the current problems.

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

This is an altogether better approach.

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

Yurt2 · 14-03-2021 09:29PM

Hubertj wrote: »

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

Super-yachts are affordable then by your definition. Because somebody's buying them.

Then again, nobody needs a super-yacht, but everybody needs a stable roof over their head.

This is the craic when talking about housing - people coming out with mad stuff to justify a mad property market.

hometruths · 14-03-2021 09:35PM

Hubertj wrote: »

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

That's exactly what makes it a better scheme in the context of solving the affordability problem.

You can do everything you want with it except rent it out or sell it on the open market. The only thing you are giving up is potential rental income or market derived capital gains.

Sure that's unattractive for those people who can afford houses at current market rates, but for those that cannot it is a much better idea than taking on a bigger chunk of unaffordable debt.

Villa05 · 14-03-2021 09:47PM

schmittel wrote:

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

You could easily implement proper market rules in the private sector, like if your not paying for it you loose the asset

Timing belt · 14-03-2021 11:30PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd suggest extra rain days, more storms and general misery.

There are gardens where tropical plants grow down west cork that won’t grow anywhere else in Ireland.. I think it has something to do with Gulf Stream and temp always staying high because of it.

https://curiousireland.ie/garinish-island-glengarriff-co-cork/

Mad_maxx · 14-03-2021 11:46PM

cnocbui wrote: »

New Zealand. The drawbridge is up, but as I have two properties to offload and work to do to get planning compliant on one, hopefully by the time I get to a property free state, the road will be open.

why New Zealand may i ask ?

they do have a much more pro workers taxation code , is it purely down to this ?

Timing belt · 14-03-2021 11:47PM

schmittel wrote: »

The Sinn Fein policy is actually a pretty good one to be fair. There are two conditions attached:

So basically if affordability is your biggest concern, buy a house in this scheme. Happy days.

If investment is more of a factor and you're looking for income or capital gains, then sorry this is not for you. Fair enough.

FGs attacks on it shows their mindset that they see rising property prices as the only game in town and compounding the current problems.

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

This is an altogether better approach.

How does this policy differ from the building of large scale council estates that the populist don’t want anymore as they say they only lead to ghettos. The building of large scale council estates solved previous housing crises but it is no longer an option or is it under SF policy just with a bit of glitter to make it more attractive.

Mad_maxx · 14-03-2021 11:51PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property market can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

the REIT,s have never tracked the property market to any sort of accurate degree , they arent really a way to invest in property at all , they just have a property sounding name and pay a solid dividend and this is marketed as another form of rent

hometruths · 14-03-2021 11:54PM

Timing belt wrote: »

How does this policy differ from the building of large scale council estates that the populist don’t want anymore as they say they only lead to ghettos. The building of large scale council estates solved previous housing crises but it is no longer an option or is it under SF policy just with a bit of glitter to make it more attractive.

The difference that leaps out is the fact the houses being are being sold for in excess of 200k.

However they envisage delivering it they are unlikely to be filled with dole scroungers.

Yurt2 · 15-03-2021 12:00AM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

why New Zealand may i ask ?

they do have a much more pro workers taxation code , is it purely down to this ?

He's in for a land if he attempts to buy property in proximity any of the cities in NZ. Their housing crisis is an order of magnitude worse than ours, and he'll find himself on boards.nz arguing the toss about what is and isn't affordable there as well; perhaps on the other side of the equation as the proceeds of his buy-to-lets can't buy him a dunny in Upper Hutt.

Timing belt · 15-03-2021 12:02AM

schmittel wrote: »

The difference that leaps out is the fact the houses being are being sold for in excess of 200k.

However they envisage delivering it they are unlikely to be filled with dole scroungers.

Council houses in the past were not totally filled with dole scroungers but with people on lower incomes.. I get the fact that people will buy so should have more respect for their properties and neighbourhoods but an area with 'Affordable houses' will have the same stigma attached than council estates did previously. That is not me saying that people should look down on them, it is just saying that I don't see how it is different. If FF/FG/G started building big council estates tomorrow to house people in HAP Rent prices would fall and houses would become more affordable of the back of this but there would be a massive outcry that council estates lead to ghettos and needs to be avoided at all costs.

Mad_maxx · 15-03-2021 12:08AM

Yurt! wrote: »

He's in for a land if he attempts to buy property in proximity any of the cities in NZ. Their housing crisis is an order of magnitude worse than ours, and he'll find himself on boards.nz arguing the toss about what is and isn't affordable there as well; perhaps on the other side of the equation the proceeds of his buy-to-lets can't buy him a dunny in Upper Hutt.

ive lived and worked in NZ though years and years before the property market went nuts , it is indeed much more expensive to buy property down there and the standards in NZ are truly awful relative to Ireland , houses are like glorified barns in many places

L1011 · 15-03-2021 12:10AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Council houses in the past were not totally filled with dole scroungers but with people on lower incomes..

Nothing has changed here - the majority of people in social housing are in employment.

hometruths · 15-03-2021 12:12AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Council houses in the past were not totally filled with dole scroungers but with people on lower incomes.. I get the fact that people will buy so should have more respect for their properties and neighbourhoods but an area with 'Affordable houses' will have the same stigma attached than council estates did previously. That is not me saying that people should look down on them, it is just saying that I don't see how it is different. If FF/FG/G started building big council estates tomorrow to house people in HAP Rent prices would fall and houses would become more affordable of the back of this but there would be a massive outcry that council estates lead to ghettos and needs to be avoided at all costs.

Building an estate of houses and selling them to people who qualify for mortgages of circa 200k is different to building an estate of houses and giving them to people who qualify for a free house.

A bit silly to suggest otherwise. IMO.

Yurt2 · 15-03-2021 12:12AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Council houses in the past were not totally filled with dole scroungers but with people on lower incomes.. I get the fact that people will buy so should have more respect for their properties and neighbourhoods but an area with 'Affordable houses' will have the same stigma attached than council estates did previously. That is not me saying that people should look down on them, it is just saying that I don't see how it is different. If FF/FG/G started building big council estates tomorrow to house people in HAP Rent prices would fall and houses would become more affordable of the back of this but there would be a massive outcry that council estates lead to ghettos and needs to be avoided at all costs.

It scrambles some Irish folks brains the whole concept of affordable housing. In many people's imagination, there are only two types of housing possible: Social housing filled with Margret Cash clones strung-out on heroin, and mortgaged private housing filled with the self-styled brave industrious and long-suffering Paddy everyman who holds up the sky - and nothing in-between.

Any stigma is a stigma of ignorance.

Affordable housing projects delivered at scale have the real potential to break the back on the housing crisis and alleviate what would otherwise become a decade after decade quality of life and social crisis.

Timing belt · 15-03-2021 12:20AM

schmittel wrote: »

Building an estate of houses and selling them to people who qualify for mortgages of circa 200k is different to building an estate of houses and giving them to people who qualify for a free house.

A bit silly to suggest otherwise. IMO.

Council house were rented by the tenant and later offered for sale at a affordable price.... they were not free houses given away.

hometruths · 15-03-2021 12:25AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Council house were rented by the tenant and later offered for sale at a affordable price.... they were not free houses given away.

Good point. I now realize you’re totally correct. This scheme is no different to the council estates of yesteryear and will surely lead to large scale squalid ghettos.

jill_valentine · 15-03-2021 01:34AM

Am I imagining it or is it a new country every time

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1