Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

GooglePlus wrote: »

Putting the word fact at the end of a sentence doesn't make it so.

We would not have had a Lombardy situation, are you serious? For one, we were far more prepared this time around at the coal face, treatment worldwide has improved thanks to knowledge sharing globally.

We're better prepared for sure, but there's a limit to what we can do. Our hospitals would still fill up.

We were better prepared going into December, low case numbers, low hospital numbers - and yet after a month of loosened restrictions, we had to draw the drawbridge up again super quick in case the system collapsed. And that was a month, with still plenty of restrictions in play.

darced wrote: »

Nonsense

If we dropped all restrictions and stopped all social distancing it would very quickly turn into a Lombardy like situation save for the nursing homes being shielded by vaccines.

Turtwig wrote: »

If we dropped all restrictions and stopped all social distancing it would very quickly turn into a Lombardy like situation save for the nursing homes being shielded by vaccines.

In your reading, what % of the population have had covid19? Please provide for those that were not tested due to various reasons including being asymptomatic. Consider also those which have recovered and have an immune response.

Factor in the vulnerable group which have a high % of being vaccinated even at one dose.

It COULD NOT be like Lombardy - the situation is different. Convince me otherwise.

jackryan34 wrote: »

No restrictions we are Lombardy

Other poster disagrees

I live in a place with not that many restrictions, everything is open. We arent Lombardy and never were. Positivity rate is dropping like a stone, still with everything open. There is no evidence that Ireland would be either

Well, this thread has descended into numpties with extreme opinions shouting at other numpties who have similarly extreme opinions. Neither opinion being remotely close to the truth.

I am glad we've reached at point that the ending of this pandemic is so close that reasonable people are no longer participating in the discourse, and are instead optimistically looking at the future.

The only people left behind are the weirdos who have filled up the last few pages of this thread.

Sobit1964 wrote: »

In your reading, what % of the population have had covid19? Please provide for those that were not tested due to various reasons including being asymptomatic. Consider also those which have recovered and have an immune response.

Factor in the vulnerable group which have a high % of being vaccinated even at one dose.

It COULD NOT be like Lombardy - the situation is different. Convince me otherwise.

Highest guess for health workers that I've seen was around 25% infected in a Dublin hospital. If we assume that to be representative of the entire community. That would leave approx 3 out every 4 individuals susceptible to infection. One in four with some form of immunity would not prevent rapid spread among the susceptible population.
The vulnerable in nursing homes are shielded thanks to the vaccines so there'd be less deaths there. Trouble is they don't really make up the hospital admissions population. In a NPHET letter in February to the minister of health Ronan Glynn stated 70% of all hospital cases and ICU admissions were under 70 years of age. Almost none of this population has been vaccinated yet. With no restrictions and social distancing it would only be a matter of time before cases explode followed a few weeks later by hospitalisations and deaths.

Sobit1964 wrote: »

In your reading, what % of the population have had covid19? Please provide for those that were not tested due to various reasons including being asymptomatic. Consider also those which have recovered and have an immune response.

Factor in the vulnerable group which have a high % of being vaccinated even at one dose.

It COULD NOT be like Lombardy - the situation is different. Convince me otherwise.

Truth is nobody knows exactly how many people have been exposed to the virus or would have an immune response.

AFAIK the only survey of its kind that was carried out here was one based on seroprevalance after wave 1 and it suggested that something 1-3% of the population had been exposed, depending on where you were in the country. Sligo had less than 1% of the population exposed and Dublin slightly over 3%

You can read the summary here, published in August:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-announces-results-of%C2%A0seroprevalence-study.html

I know things have changed since then, but if we look at metrics like the amount of deaths since then and now, and we use that as a extremely rough estimate of how much more the virus has circulated since that period, then clearly while there's been a lot more people infected since, I would say it's strongly suggestive that the vast, vast majority of the population haven't been exposed or have any immunity to the virus.

And, as we know, only 7% of the population have been given one dose of the vaccine - and a proportion of that figure wouldn't be "vulnerable" - they'd be health care workers or care home workers.

Either way there's clearly an enormous amount of people out there who haven't got the virus or haven't been vaccinated yet.

If we removed restrictions, right now, there'd be an absolute explosion of cases all over again.

Arghus wrote: »

Truth is nobody knows exactly how many people have been exposed to the virus or would have an immune response.

AFAIK the only survey of its kind that was carried out here was one based on seroprevalance after wave 1 and it suggested that something 1-3% of the population had been exposed, depending on where you were in the country. Sligo had less than 1% of the population exposed and Dublin slightly over 3%

You can read the summary here, published in August:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-announces-results-of%C2%A0seroprevalence-study.html

I know things have changed since then, but if we look at metrics like the amount of deaths since then and now, and we use that as a extremely rough estimate of how much more the virus has circulated since that period, then clearly while there's been a lot more people infected since, I would say it's strongly suggestive that the vast, vast majority of the population haven't been exposed or have any immunity to the virus.

And, as we know, only 7% of the population have been given one dose of the vaccine - and a proportion of that figure wouldn't be "vulnerable" - they'd be health care workers or care home workers.

Either way there's clearly an enormous amount of people out there who haven't got the virus or haven't been vaccinated yet.

If we removed restrictions, right now, there'd be an absolute explosion of cases all over again.

They did an updated seropervalence in Nov /Dec prior to third wave afaik contrasting a hospital in the East (Dublin most likely) to one in the West (Galway).
Iirc The level of infection in galway staff was less than 5%. In Dublin it was almost 25%.
Dublin was still goosed by the third wave. Although you could say Galway was proportionately worse during the third wave than Dublin. Would be very interesting to see how many staff were infected in galway during third wave.

Arghus wrote: »

It would.

Though I would be wary of assuming that those levels of infection could be read as being representative of the rate of infection across the community as a whole - because infection rates for HCW are always bound to be higher.

You definitely can't assume hcw, who are such a high risk to infection, would be representative of community levels infections. The infection in health care workers can be useful as a proxy to estimate wider trends in the community.

From Independent

With some primary and secondary school pupils set to return to class in just five days, new figures obtained by the Irish Independent reveal that one in eight of all Covid-19 cases in Ireland were children and teenagers within the year of the pandemic. Also this morning, Philip Ryan reveals that Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien has come under fire for embarking on a nine county tour of the country while Level 5 restrictions are in place.