Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

W123-80's · 11-03-2021 12:35AM

VonLuck wrote: »

Has anyone looked at Germany's reopening plan? I don't see why Ireland couldn't adopt a similar approach. Very well thought out and links the incidence rate to reopening as opposed to the very unclear direction we have at the moment.

https://www.thelocal.de/20210304/explained-this-is-germanys-five-step-plan-to-head-out-of-shutdown/

We are a long way off the incidence figures.
If we had a plan that mirrored their incidence rate figures, schools here would still be closed?

I'll concede it's a well thought out plan but we are a long long way off the 35/50 cases per 100,000 over a 7 day period that most of their easing restriction targets require.

If we both agree that it's a good plan in theory then surely continuing to suppress the virus and allowing the vaccination programme gain traction is the only logical option?

Do you agree?

normanoffside · 11-03-2021 12:48AM

W123-80's wrote: »

We are a long way off the incidence figures.
If we had a plan that mirrored their incidence rate figures, schools here would still be closed?

I'll concede it's a well thought out plan but we are a long long way off the 35/50 cases per 100,000 over a 7 day period that most of their easing restriction targets require.

If we both agree that it's a good plan in theory then surely continuing to suppress the virus and allowing the vaccination programme gain traction is the only logical option?

Do you agree?

We are at 70/100k/7 days as a country and dropping.
Parts of the country are well below 50/100k.

Overall Ireland and Germany have very similar 7 day averages right now.

TonyMaloney · 11-03-2021 12:50AM

JRant wrote: »

He's lived through 4 pandemics?
I think I see the root cause here. Gerry the Jonah needs to be shipped to a deserted island in the middle of the pacific before he attracts a fifth.

AIDS, covid. That's two.

How old is he?

normanoffside · 11-03-2021 12:52AM

normanoffside wrote: »

We are at 70/100k/7 days as a country and dropping.
Parts of the country are well below 50/100k.

Overall Ireland and Germany have very similar 7 day averages right now.

Actually I stand corrected, we are doing better than Germany In 7-day incidence.
We are 68.6, Germany is 70.3

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

They’ve already reopened Hairdressers etc.

W123-80's · 11-03-2021 12:52AM

normanoffside wrote: »

We are at 70/100k/7 days as a country and dropping.
Parts of the country are well below 50/100k.

Overall Ireland and Germany have very similar 7 day averages right now.

So we are not at the rates where they plan to open school's.
We have already opened our schools
Out of interest, any suggestions on how we get to the rate they have proposed in their plan?

Edit; I stand corrected, schools are open.
Happy to acknowledge when I'm wrong!

normanoffside · 11-03-2021 12:58AM

W123-80's wrote: »

So we are not at the rates where they plan to open school's.
We have already opened our schools
Out of interest, any suggestions on how we get to the rate they have proposed in their plan?

Have you read the article? They’ve already opened schools, hairdressers, beauty salons and a lot of non-essential retail. Construction has been opened throughout.

The 50/100k marker is for the states to move to their 3rd and 4th stages which involves opening everything else.
We’ll be at 50/100k in a few weeks and might get to go 5.1k for excercise and reopen construction if we are lucky.

TonyMaloney · 11-03-2021 01:01AM

normanoffside wrote: »

At the current rate of decline we’ll be there in 2 weeks or less.

can you show your workings?

normanoffside · 11-03-2021 01:02AM

W123-80's wrote: »

Out of interest, any suggestions on how we get to the rate they have proposed in their plan?

At the current rate of decline we’ll be there in 2 weeks or less.

W123-80's · 11-03-2021 01:04AM

normanoffside wrote: »

Have you read the article? They’ve already opened schools, hairdressers, beauty salons and a lot of non-essential retail. Construction has been opened throughout.

The 50/100k marker is for the states to move to their 3rd and 4th stages which involves opening everything else.
We’ll be at 50/100k in a few weeks and might get to go 5.1k for excercise and reopen construction if we are lucky.

Yip.
Read the article.
Acknowledged my factual error and corrected my post above. Whilst also leaving my incorrect post there too!

normanoffside · 11-03-2021 01:05AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

can you show your workings?

Week on week our numbers have been dropping 15-20% over the past month (more before that)
Since we are currently at 68/100k/7days that’s where we are.

We need to averaging about 350 cases a day to make 50/100k/7 days.

We are not that far off.

showpony1 · 11-03-2021 02:41AM

showpony1 wrote: »

Just like it was made clear nothing would be changing except for opening of Schools in March,
it is already clear what will happen on 5th April - "some" outdoor activities & Construction will open.
No point in speculating any otherwise for the next month or so.

A post from the Pony on 23rd Feb 2021.

finalfurlong · 11-03-2021 02:56AM

Monster249 wrote: »

There isn't any reasonable rationale they can use for another lockdown regardless of case numbers once everyone's vaccinated, they just need to deal with it because there's no endgame if that's the case.

I'm saying by April, the cases are low enough to be at least level 3, especially with the level of vaccinations projected for Q2. If you disagree, then you're in the same ultra-conservative, spineless mind-frame the government are in and it's going against the rest of Europe.

There are signs today that this farce is gone beyond all logical thought.In a couple of posts in last week I was commenting on a poster picking up on martin saying on march 6th that basically april 5 is already decided to possibly do 3 small things.So the much heralded "seeing where the figures are"is a joke.He was saying the near 4 weeks progress that will happen in the interim wont change the group think of5k to 10k !!! meet a person in fresh air!!!!and let kids train but not too much!!!.The logical thing is to discuss things no earlier than 6/7 days before possible changes to be as current as possible.
But that is bettered by todays devious goings on.Under cover of Dail the new one was slipped in that the april 5 minimal changes will be there for 6 weeks.That is 10 weeks from today.So what happens in 10 weeks re hospital cases ,icu,r rate ,daily cases and vaccinations is basically not going to effect any change.This is beyond all belief.Varadker followed up with saying there was little change going to happen in April.....AND MAY.This is a farce full stop.No flexibility,no iniative,no creative thinking-They have mentally switched off having to decide anything for 10 weeks where on current trends figures will be tumbling weekly,The Irish Times tomorrow says the effective next revieiw date is May 23rd-I just think they have abdicated a duty to lead and are playing the Irish people for fools.Just to double down,Varadker said flu would come back next winter which meant a lockdown is a possibility then.Writing off vast swathes of time seems to now be 2nd nature to these stooges-the other drip fed thing from party meetings tonight was there will be no skipping levels this time.So april 5th -level 5 still/May 23rd level 4 if lucky/July 7th maybe level 3/August 19th might get to level 2---5.5 months .Incredible arrogance if that is the thinking.A diabolical collection of spineless,craven jobsworths.

Leftwaffe · 11-03-2021 08:24AM

“Covid cases need to fall below 200 per day before country can reopen, says Nphet”

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

We’ve been in lockdown for god knows how long and there was 600 cases yesterday. We will be in lockdown for years if this is the plan. We are in deep trouble. Very concerning news this morning for me.

RobAMerc · 11-03-2021 08:34AM

Is there a possibility of a non violent protest ? I have had enough of this sh*t, they are making an absolute balls of the whole thing and I would love to be able to join the masses on a protest without fear of a bunch of nob heads ruining it.

I'd like to make it clear, I have never protested anything before in my life, the closest I have done is the darkness into light walk which imo is necessary because of the shambles of a Healthcare system ( I've worked in it and its worse than you think, much worse )

IMO Nphet is a collection of egomaniacs (all consultant doctors are ) been handed a lot of power and they aint going to relinquishing that any time soon.

JRant · 11-03-2021 08:34AM

finalfurlong wrote: »

There are signs today that this farce is gone beyond all logical thought.In a couple of posts in last week I was commenting on a poster picking up on martin saying on march 6th that basically april 5 is already decided to possibly do 3 small things.So the much heralded "seeing where the figures are"is a joke.He was saying the near 4 weeks progress that will happen in the interim wont change the group think of5k to 10k !!! meet a person in fresh air!!!!and let kids train but not too much!!!.The logical thing is to discuss things no earlier than 6/7 days before possible changes to be as current as possible.
But that is bettered by todays devious goings on.Under cover of Dail the new one was slipped in that the april 5 minimal changes will be there for 6 weeks.That is 10 weeks from today.So what happens in 10 weeks re hospital cases ,icu,r rate ,daily cases and vaccinations is basically not going to effect any change.This is beyond all belief.Varadker followed up with saying there was little change going to happen in April.....AND MAY.This is a farce full stop.No flexibility,no iniative,no creative thinking-They have mentally switched off having to decide anything for 10 weeks where on current trends figures will be tumbling weekly,The Irish Times tomorrow says the effective next revieiw date is May 23rd-I just think they have abdicated a duty to lead and are playing the Irish people for fools.Just to double down,Varadker said flu would come back next winter which meant a lockdown is a possibility then.Writing off vast swathes of time seems to now be 2nd nature to these stooges-the other drip fed thing from party meetings tonight was there will be no skipping levels this time.So april 5th -level 5 still/May 23rd level 4 if lucky/July 7th maybe level 3/August 19th might get to level 2---5.5 months .Incredible arrogance if that is the thinking.A diabolical collection of spineless,craven jobsworths.

I think they'll try to keep to Level4/5 until 80% are vaccinated. That seems to be their plan.

Elessar · 11-03-2021 08:38AM

Lovely. Just lovey.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

Less than 200 cases a day and an r number of 0.5 before restrictions can be eased.

Mid May at the earliest before MAYBE you might be able to go to a socially-distanced shop for something other than cornflakes and milk, or even click and collect.

And we Irish will just sit back, moan and do nothing about it.

Probes · 11-03-2021 08:40AM

Elessar wrote: »

Lovely. Just lovey.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

Less than 200 cases a day and an r number of 0.5 before restrictions can be eased.

Mid May at the earliest before MAYBE you might be able to go to a socially-distanced shop for something other than cornflakes and milk, or even click and collect.

And we Irish will just sit back, moan and do nothing about it.

About 15% of deaths in Israel are people that are fully vaccinated. There is a reason why virus numbers need to be controlled until the bulk of the population are vaccinated.

_Kaiser_ · 11-03-2021 08:46AM

Most restrictions to be extended to late May now.

Covid-19: Key lockdown restrictions set to last until late May (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-key-lockdown-restrictions-set-to-last-until-late-may-1.4506908

So basically they're repeating the "plan" from this time last year, with the latest excuse now being vaccine shortages.

The difference of course is that last year it was a legitimate strategy because we hadn't enough information about the risks or dangers from CV-19. This year we know that 99% of the population in this country are at little to no significant risk from it.

It's clear to me at this stage that the only way this will change is Irish Water-style mass protests and people refusing to engage with the restrictions - just as how people refusing to register or pay led to the scrapping of charges.

DylanJM · 11-03-2021 08:50AM

Probes wrote: »

About 15% of deaths in Israel are people that are fully vaccinated. There is a reason why virus numbers need to be controlled until the bulk of the population are vaccinated.

Source for this?

Leftwaffe · 11-03-2021 09:00AM

DylanJM wrote: »

Source for this?

I’d like to see a source for that too. 15% seems quite high, maybe there caught the virus before the second dose, maybe they hadn’t reached the 90 odd percent level of immunity before catching it. A lot of variables there.

suicide_circus · 11-03-2021 09:07AM

Any protest planned in dublin this weekend?

pjohnson · 11-03-2021 09:08AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

Any protest planned in dublin this weekend?

They hardly are still doing that after the Dublin fiasco and damp squib in Cork?

Probes · 11-03-2021 09:09AM

DylanJM wrote: »

Source for this?

You can see it here, although it doesn't really need a graph, the vaccines were found to be around 90% effective so it makes sense that some people won't gain the benefit of the vaccine, they gain the benefit of herd immunity from everyone else being vaccinated.

https://twitter.com/Nadav_Eyal/status/1367093227350872066?s=20

titan18 · 11-03-2021 09:10AM

There's one planned for St Patricks Day in Dublin isn't there

JRant · 11-03-2021 09:11AM

Elessar wrote: »

Lovely. Just lovey.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

Less than 200 cases a day and an r number of 0.5 before restrictions can be eased.

Mid May at the earliest before MAYBE you might be able to go to a socially-distanced shop for something other than cornflakes and milk, or even click and collect.

And we Irish will just sit back, moan and do nothing about it.

I could maybe understand those figures being used before moving to a level 1 or 2 but to use them before lifting any level 5 restrictions is just bonkers. With numbers under 200 per day it would only take a small outbreak to push the R number up.

bloopy · 11-03-2021 09:12AM

RobAMerc wrote: »

Is there a possibility of a non violent protest ? I have had enough of this sh*t, they are making an absolute balls of the whole thing and I would love to be able to join the masses on a protest without fear of a bunch of nob heads ruining it.

I'd like to make it clear, I have never protested anything before in my life, the closest I have done is the darkness into light walk which imo is necessary because of the shambles of a Healthcare system ( I've worked in it and its worse than you think, much worse )

IMO Nphet is a collection of egomaniacs (all consultant doctors are ) been handed a lot of power and they aint going to relinquishing that any time soon.

There is, but be aware that any civil disobedience will get you labeled as far right, alt right, conspiracy theorist, Gemma supporter, etc by the Irish media which will be pushed even further by the loons and the easily startled on social media.

FintanMcluskey · 11-03-2021 09:12AM

Leo in newstalk talking about all businesses bouncing back

Something Alan Partridge often referenced he had to do

titan18 · 11-03-2021 09:12AM

JRant wrote: »

I could maybe understand those figures being used before moving to a level 1 or 2 but to use them before lifting any level 5 restrictions is just bonkers. With numbers under 200 per day it would only take a small outbreak to push the R number up.

I could understand the sub 200 for hospitality. Click and collect, hairdressers etc it's just nonsense for.

suicide_circus · 11-03-2021 09:13AM

titan18 wrote: »

There's one planned for St Patricks Day in Dublin isn't there

working that day, pity.

JRant · 11-03-2021 09:15AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Most restrictions to be extended to late May now.

Covid-19: Key lockdown restrictions set to last until late May (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-key-lockdown-restrictions-set-to-last-until-late-may-1.4506908

So basically they're repeating the "plan" from this time last year, with the latest excuse now being vaccine shortages.

The difference of course is that last year it was a legitimate strategy because we hadn't enough information about the risks or dangers from CV-19. This year we know that 99% of the population in this country are at little to no significant risk from it.

It's clear to me at this stage that the only way this will change is Irish Water-style mass protests and people refusing to engage with the restrictions - just as how people refusing to register or pay led to the scrapping of charges.

I don't know if even that would make any difference. MM is the weakest leader we've had in a long time and is afraid to make a single decision on his own, the very definition of paralysis by analysis.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings