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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4742
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Arghus wrote: »
    Well, if you want to talk about the numbers of first vaccines then our number rises to a colossal 7% of people vaccinated.

    As more people are vaccinated and more data becomes available from elsewhere we can operate differently.

    But we don't have enough people currently vaccinated to materially change what we can do at the moment - but everyone hopes that will change, and sooner rather than later.

    I would like to hear in a briefing - a projection based on 7% first vaccinations we should expect X, Y, or Z. God knows we had plenty based on no actual data that predicted wildly incorrect theories from broadly debunked members of the media and the 'scientists' that they pay to appear.


  • #4743
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    I would like to hear in a briefing - a projection based on 7% first vaccinations we should expect X, Y, or Z. God knows we had plenty based on no actual data that predicted wildly incorrect theories from broadly debunked members of the media and the 'scientists' that they pay to appear.

    That would be great, but nobody is in a position to do that yet. Even the UK aren't making assumptions about that yet and they are way ahead in terms of people vaccinated. There is still fundamentally a lot of uncertainty.


  • #4744
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Arghus wrote: »
    That would be great, but nobody is in a position to do that yet. Even the UK aren't making assumptions about that yet and they are way ahead in terms of people vaccinated. There is still fundamentally a lot of uncertainty.

    They have numbers of hospital admittances and deaths in various at risk cohorts already - could these not be extrapolated to our population?

    Uncertainty was march 2020 when 100k people could have died. What we have now is actual data on affected cohorts, vaccine efficacy, immunity *minimum* timescales and much more.

    The government are operating like everything is still unknown and this is leading to needless fear when a more reasoned response is appropriate.


  • #4745
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    That 7% is largely comprised of the most vulnerable and those who are in contact with the most vulnerable though.

    I'd be interested in what percentage of those who are most likely to suffer serious illness are vaccinated.

    The problem becomes definitional.

    When you vaccinate the over 65s - who constitute 92+% of COVID-19 deaths in Ireland; that by definition means the under 65s now become the "at-risk group".

    And as long as definitions such as that exist, it means that NPHET restrictions can be argued in place for as long as is deemed necessary - including Lv. 5 restrictions. And given the under-65 population is larger, it makes perfect sense for NPHET to argue for Lv 4-5 restrictions until all over 40s are vaccinated.


  • #4746
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The problem becomes definitional.

    When you vaccinate the over 65s - who constitute 92+% of COVID-19 deaths in Ireland; that by definition means the under 65s now become the "at-risk group".

    And as long as definitions such as that exist, it means that NPHET restrictions can be argued in place for as long as is deemed necessary - including Lv. 5 restrictions.

    This is a great point. One that *must* start to be discussed.


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  • #4747
    jackryan34
    Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    I would like to hear in a briefing - a projection based on 7% first vaccinations we should expect X, Y, or Z. God knows we had plenty based on no actual data that predicted wildly incorrect theories from broadly debunked members of the media and the 'scientists' that they pay to appear.

    Just checked Israel's progress, the poster boy for vaccination rollouts

    Israel have 3500 cases a day right now and have 50% fully vaccinated

    It would be like us having 2000 cases a day with 50% fully vaccinated

    Israel have alot of bad boy extremists spreading Covid though, so we are told anyway


  • #4748
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    They have numbers of hospital admittances and deaths in various at risk cohorts already - could these not be extrapolated to our population?

    Uncertainty was march 2020 when 100k people could have died. What we have now is actual data on affected cohorts, vaccine efficacy, immunity *minimum* timescales and much more.

    The government are operating like everything is still unknown and this is leading to needless fear when a more reasoned response is appropriate.

    I'm sure the data from The UK and Israel is being looked at very closely, but it isn't as straightforward as you are making it sound.

    Where are these figures that could be extrapolated to our population? I'm asking a genuine question here. Do we have enough data currently to base policy around?


  • #4749
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    Just checked Israel's progress, the poster boy for vaccination rollouts

    Israel have 3500 cases a day right now and have 50% fully vaccinated

    It would be like us having 2000 cases a day with 50% fully vaccinated

    Israel have alot of bad boy extremists spreading Covid though, so we are told anyway

    I don't think anyone sane would care if we had 2000 cases and our hospitals had hardly any covid patients. Is that the case there? Maybe present that information?

    I'm not sure reasoned debate is possible when you describe ultra orthodox jews as 'bad boy extremists' - this is silliness - if you want silliness, I post in the 'restrictions/when will it end' threads, these are more jovial places filled the absolute best of SHUT/CLOSE binary thinking and alike - come visit.


  • #4750
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'm sure the data from The UK and Israel is being looked at very closely, but it isn't as straightforward as you are making it sound.

    Where are these figures that could be extrapolated to our population? I'm asking a genuine question here. Do we have enough data currently to base policy around?

    If it is - i'm not sure ive heard them say that in the seemingly never ending media briefings.

    If both you and I are asking the same question - might we expect an answer from the experts that we both pay exorbitant salaries to?


  • #4751
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,273 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Wonder is that just 1st doses? Must be if gap is 12 weeks I guess

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1369747016167866368


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  • #4752
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Monster249 wrote: »
    The health service have proven they can manage with numbers far exceeding that.

    We've somehow been convinced that our health service should not feel any pressure during a pandemic


  • #4753
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    If it is - i'm not sure ive heard them say that in the seemingly never ending media briefings.

    If both you and I are asking the same question - might we expect an answer from the experts that we both pay exorbitant salaries to?

    I don't think we are asking the same question.

    You seem to be questioning why we aren't acting on data. I'm questioning whether the particular data you are looking for even exists yet.


  • #4754
    jackryan34
    Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'm sure the data from The UK and Israel is being looked at very closely, but it isn't as straightforward as you are making it sound.

    Where are these figures that could be extrapolated to our population? I'm asking a genuine question here. Do we have enough data currently to base policy around?

    95% efficacious and 5% hospitalisation rate if your vulnerable and do get covid is what UK are suggesting

    1,500,000 people in Ireland vulnerable

    95% efficacious = 75,000 at risk of catching Covid

    5% hospitalisation rate = 3,750 hospitalisations

    Assuming all vulnerable are exposed to virus

    If we say 25% chance of catching Covid in winter season with no restrictions that's 937 hospitalisations

    If vaccines are 95% efficacious and 95% effective at keeping people out of hospitals the pandemic is over with those stats

    We will know next winter if they live up to the hype


  • #4755
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    jackryan34 wrote: »

    We will know next winter if they live up to the hype

    A booster dose, to account for variants, is likely to be introduced to the entire population in the pre-Winter phase.


  • #4756
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Arghus wrote: »
    I don't think we are asking the same question.

    You seem to questioning why we aren't acting on data. I'm questioning whether the particular data you are looking for even exists yet.

    OK, valid point.

    Im asking question 3.

    You are asking question 1.

    Neither have been answered.


  • #4757
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,465 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    This time last year we were in the middle of Thread V - started 10:25 08/03, ended 12:04 11/03 - a lifespan of 3 days 2 hour 39 mins for 9,849 posts, and the next 3 threads went even quicker....


  • #4758
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,918 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Beasty wrote: »
    This time last year we were in the middle of Thread V - started 10:25 08/03, ended 12:04 11/03 - a lifespan of 3 days 2 hour 39 mins for 9,849 posts, and the next 3 threads went even quicker....

    We were reeling from the horrors of the Lombardy news reports that was just filtering through at the time, with Spain to follow three weeks later.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #4759
    jackryan34
    Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    We were reeling from the horrors of the Lombardy news reports that was just filtering through at the time, with Spain to follow three weeks later.

    And in that year nothing has changed here

    If we dropped all restrictions tomorrow and partied like it was 2019 we would be Lombardy in 8-12 weeks


  • #4760
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    And in that year nothing has changed here

    If we dropped all restrictions tomorrow and partied like it was 2019 we would be Lombardy in 8-12 weeks

    Errrr....:no we wouldn’t


  • #4761
    nocoverart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    And in that year nothing has changed here

    If we dropped all restrictions tomorrow and partied like it was 2019 we would be Lombardy in 8-12 weeks

    So no parties or lombarghinis for us so...


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  • #4762
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    And in that year nothing has changed here

    If we dropped all restrictions tomorrow and partied like it was 2019 we would be Lombardy in 8-12 weeks

    Conspiracy theory - lacks any scientific basis. Impossible to suggest that a group already exposed with infections both asymptomatic and symptomatic plus vaccinated at risk cohort would be anything like Lombardy.

    Tin foil hat post.


  • #4763
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    nocoverart wrote: »
    So no parties or lombarghinis for us so...

    Not until Level 1


  • #4764
    darced
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,056 ✭✭✭darced


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    And in that year nothing has changed here

    If we dropped all restrictions tomorrow and partied like it was 2019 we would be Lombardy in 8-12 weeks

    Nonsense


  • #4765
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    https://www.leitrimobserver.ie/news/home/616168/large-crowd-pictured-in-marquee-erected-for-traveller-mourners.html

    How can this be allowed to happen? A real kick in the nuts for everyone acting diligently.


  • #4766
    nocoverart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Not until Level 1

    Thanks Doc, any chance I could get my Father in for a routine blood test? his GP is refusing a basic Human right because of Covid. Thanks!


  • #4767
    jackryan34
    Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    darced wrote: »
    Nonsense

    Short memory?

    Remember Christmas

    Still a **** load of restrictions in place and still health service was under serious pressure

    Without restrictions we would have been Lombardy, fact

    We'd have 50,000 cases a day in January with no restrictions


  • #4768
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,270 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    runawaybishop wrote: »
    I will, thanks. I'll believe the HSE and who guidelines over someone with an agenda on an online forum reporting stuff they heard from a friend of a friend. :rolleyes:

    The international society of drug bulletins who inform doctors and pharmacists to help decisions for the best interest of the patients...That's you and I, asked your famous WHO for data, to help doctors, DATA VIA signal (LOOK THAT ONE UP). This reports drug safety issues raised in raw case reports. The WHO refuse to share it and only entertain sharing any of it with national health Authorities But guess who can see it..the Pharma companies, who produce the drugs!!! they can cherry pick and do what they like with the help of the WHO.. roll your eyes at the poster all you want but use the term agenda wisely there Rico because it's not reserved for the forums you so keenly inhabit yourself.

    Astra zeneca made 5 billion per year on omeprazole and as the 5 year patent came to an end, they added as ES prefix and not much else in terms of efficacy..despite whatever surrogate ****e they offer..
    The new esomerprazole or NEXIUM to us dullards is no more affective but it's damn sure more expensive and now brings in 5 Billion per year.
    The head of USA Medicare Tom scully was quoted as saying anyone who buys or uses Nexium is wasting their money.. But I guess we can all wait and trust and belive all the claims from these charlatans.


  • #4769
    Batattackrat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 222 ✭✭Batattackrat


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    Short memory?

    Remember Christmas

    Still a **** load of restrictions in place and still health service was under serious pressure

    Without restrictions we would have been Lombardy, fact

    We'd have 50,000 cases a day in January with no restrictions

    You do realize 50,000 arrived into the airport for Xmas. How many of these do you think self isolated upon arrival.
    You do realize we had no vaccinations then and have now administered 400,000 to the most vulnerable.
    You do realize mandatory quarantining is coming in if arriving into airport.

    Its still too early to open fully but no need for the full level 5 restrictions.


  • #4770
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    jackryan34 wrote: »
    Short memory?

    Remember Christmas

    Still a **** load of restrictions in place and still health service was under serious pressure

    Without restrictions we would have been Lombardy, fact

    We'd have 50,000 cases a day in January with no restrictions

    Putting the word fact at the end of a sentence doesn't make it so.

    We would not have had a Lombardy situation, are you serious? For one, we were far more prepared this time around at the coal face, treatment worldwide has improved thanks to knowledge sharing globally.


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  • #4771
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,080 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    https://www.leitrimobserver.ie/news/home/616168/large-crowd-pictured-in-marquee-erected-for-traveller-mourners.html

    How can this be allowed to happen? A real kick in the nuts for everyone acting diligently.

    Unreal

    Two fingers to any restrictions

    Terrible story


This discussion has been closed.
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