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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • #4712
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
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    I'm surprised Paddy Power aren't taking bets on who'll replace Donnelly yet

    He's easily the weakest "minister" in the entire country

    He'll probably be in place for a while tbh.

    There won't be many queuing up for that health portfolio at this moment in time.


  • #4713
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Arghus wrote: »
    He'll probably be in place for a while tbh.

    There won't be many queuing up for that health portfolio at this moment in time.


    Some have said he's Martin's scapegoat if he needs one

    Time will tell though

    If Martin ever fired him he'd be admitting the "government" as a whole have been a failure with Covid


  • #4714
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Some have said he's Martin's scapegoat if he needs one

    Time will tell though

    If Martin ever fired him he'd be admitting the "government" as a whole have been a failure with Covid

    Donelly will be an easy blood sacrifice when the time comes - because he's not truly FF and is disliked by many.

    But, he won't be cut loose yet. The political fallout would be immense.


  • #4715
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Deleted User wrote: »
    600 cases is great, at least when compared to January; and it's only 0.012% of the population.

    Very low numbers, no matter how anyone else tries to interpret it as "high".

    We will always want it lower, so there's not much point arguing. If it were 300 for 4-days in a row, we'd be disappointed it wasn't 200 etc.

    Might as well accept that 600 is pretty good in the overall scheme of things / total population.

    Before Christmas it was mentioned that 600 a day without movement would be the edge of what the health service could handle without surge capacity.

    With vaccines we could manage about a thousand a day without going into surge capacity.

    But we need to get the hospital numbers down and the icu numbers down before we can open anything up.

    A 600 case day feels like a massive step backwards but really it's just the Wednesday bounce after a few better than expected days.


  • #4716
    Monster249
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Monster249


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Before Christmas it was mentioned that 600 a day without movement would be the edge of what the health service could handle without surge capacity.

    With vaccines we could manage about a thousand a day without going into surge capacity.

    But we need to get the hospital numbers down and the icu numbers down before we can open anything up.

    A 600 case day feels like a massive step backwards but really it's just the Wednesday bounce after a few better than expected days.

    The health service have proven they can manage with numbers far exceeding that.


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  • #4717
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Tyrone212 wrote: »
    Stephen Donnely on six one yesterday said our target has only been reduced from 1.2m to 1.1m . He was immediately corrected that the initial target was 1.7m.

    Yeah he clarified that figure was in one document only and was quickly updated to 1.2


  • #4718
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Monster249 wrote: »
    Because if you walk around Dublin you'll see it's packed with people and traffic. Dublin isn't in a full lockdown, it's obvious when you actually look at the level of activity.

    I think it was someone from the CSO on earlier today - who explained that an increased number of people are shopping for groceries as opposed to home delivery etc and more people travelling to work as opposed to wfh. Neither breaks lockdown rules. Oh and lots of people out and exercising as well...


  • #4719
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


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  • #4720
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,064 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Monster249 wrote: »
    The health service have proven they can manage with numbers far exceeding that.

    They can’t. Everything else in hse has to shutdown. It’s just not sustainable at all.


  • #4721
    Wearing of The Green
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 92 ✭✭Wearing of The Green


    The 631 cases of the Wednesday high balance out with the low 310 odd Tuesday ones. Both days tend to be inflatedly low and high. A 450 average is around right.

    The deaths are freakishly unpredictable and very high on a weekly basis as we approach mid March.


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  • #4722
    Monster249
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Monster249


    fits wrote: »
    They can’t. Everything else in hse has to shutdown. It’s just not sustainable at all.

    Lockdown also isn't sustainable so some sort of compromise has to happen.


  • #4723
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    spookwoman wrote: »







    Slide9.jpg



    Am I reading this right and cases in some hospitals like the Mater and Tallaght are on the rise again?


  • #4724
    blowitupref
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭blowitupref


    runawaybishop wrote: »
    There is a bump in cases every Wednesday due to GPs being closed over the weekend and referrals being done on the Monday, with results of those referals coming today. All the important data is trending to where we want it to be.

    DellyBelly is one of those posters that doesn't pay attention. He'll post in a simliar manner next Wednesday.


  • #4725
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Before Christmas it was mentioned that 600 a day without movement would be the edge of what the health service could handle without surge capacity.

    I'm sorry but this is simply not true.

    There are many European countries, for example - 5-10x smaller than Ireland - which with 600 cases, operated just fine. If countries 5-10x smaller can cope, I'm pretty sure that Ireland could, and would have, coped.

    This idea that the healthcare service was on the "verge of collapse" (at the 600 cases per day level) is simply not supported by the evidence.


  • #4726
    Monster249
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Monster249


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I'm sorry but this is simply not true.

    There are many European countries, for example - 5-10x smaller than Ireland - which with 600 cases, operated just fine. If countries 5-10x smaller can cope, I'm pretty sure that Ireland could, and would have, coped.

    This idea that the healthcare service was on the "verge of collapse" (at the 600 cases per day level) is simply not supported by the evidence.

    Exactly. We can handle a LOT more if we need to. It's obviously not ideal but neither is thousands of people's lives being ruined by lockdown.


  • #4727
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Am I reading this right and cases in some hospitals like the Mater and Tallaght are on the rise again?

    Yep, might be transfers from other hospitals don't know. Todays admissions up as well.
    07/03/2021 14
    08/03/2021 20
    09/03/2021 24
    10/03/2021 31


  • #4728
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Would it not make sense to stop looking at cases and only look at hospitalisations now


  • #4729
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I'm sorry but this is simply not true.

    There are many European countries, for example - 5-10x smaller than Ireland - which with 600 cases, operated just fine. If countries 5-10x smaller can cope, I'm pretty sure that Ireland could, and would have, coped.

    This idea that the healthcare service was on the "verge of collapse" (at the 600 cases per day level) is simply not supported by the evidence.

    Yeah like Malta with a tiny population but with a health care system that is one of the top five in the world...

    Healthcare resources and population across similar size or even smaller countries are not necessarily equivalent


  • #4730
    seamusk84
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 897 ✭✭✭seamusk84


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Would it not make sense to stop looking at cases and only look at hospitalisations now

    Yes it 100% would. All that matters is hospitalizations and ICU numbers now. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated this should be our only concern.

    This is maddening now. We need to actually do something to get our lives back in some shape or form.
    I'm not sure what though as the Government are scared to say boo after January.


  • #4731
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Why are the official stats in a right to left format - its like our government are using excel for the first time. Are they?


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  • #4732
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Would it not make sense to stop looking at cases and only look at hospitalisations now

    The two things are connected. And cases are the leading indicator for future hospitalisation numbers.

    To my mind there's no point ignoring them and focusing on the things that happen after them and as a result of them.


  • #4733
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Arghus wrote: »
    The two things are connected. And cases are the leading indicator for future hospitalisation numbers.

    To my mind there's no point ignoring them and focusing on the things that happen after them and as a result of them.

    Surely the data will change with vaccinations

    The numbers of cases that lead to hospitalizations will no longer be the same going forward


  • #4734
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Arghus wrote: »
    The two things are connected. And cases are the leading indicator for future hospitalisation numbers.

    To my mind there's no point ignoring them and focusing on the things that happen after them and as a result of them.

    Not as people get vaccinated they won’t. Whitby in the UK talks about how that link is being broken, and cases in themselves are not informing the UK roadmap


  • #4735
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Surely the data will change with vaccinations

    The numbers of cases that lead to hospitalizations will no longer be the same going forward

    Yes, it will, but in time. At the moment we've only got 3% of the population fully vaccinated so we're nowhere near being in a position to kick back and start ignoring case numbers.


  • #4736
    jackryan34
    Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »
    At Christmas, a friend working at a senior level in J&J USA told me that vaccine manufacturers would really struggle on the raw materials. People told me that was rubbish.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115962647

    I remember your posts on that issue

    You got attacked from all angles


  • #4737
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,561 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Surely the data will change with vaccinations

    The numbers of cases that lead to hospitalizations will no longer be the same going forward

    Yep, this is correct. The models that are used in projecting admissions will be continually updated based on cohorts vaccinated as well as age profile of cases.


  • #4738
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Not as people get vaccinated they won’t. Whitby in the UK talks about how that link is being broken, and cases in themselves are not informing the UK roadmap

    As people get vaccinated yes, but as I've said, we've currently only got roughly 3% of the population fully vaccinated.

    Case numbers are still going to be pretty relevant for quite a well yet.


  • #4739
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    Arghus wrote: »
    Yes, it will, but in time. At the moment we've only got 3% of the population fully vaccinated so we're nowhere near being in a position to kick back and start ignoring case numbers.

    We can and should operate based on numbers of first vaccines, and on the data that we can gleam from other countries relating to this - there is plenty.

    To assume that Ireland needs to reinvent the wheel suggests that our brightest and best are simple cavemen.


  • #4740
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    We can and should operate based on numbers of first vaccines, and on the data that we can gleam from other countries relating to this - there is plenty.

    To assume that Ireland needs to reinvent the wheel suggests that our brightest and best are simple cavemen.

    Well, if you want to talk about the numbers of first vaccines then our number rises to a colossal 7% of people vaccinated.

    As more people are vaccinated and more data becomes available from elsewhere we can operate differently.

    But we don't have enough people currently vaccinated to materially change what we can do at the moment - but everyone hopes that will change, and sooner rather than later.


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  • #4741
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sobit1964 wrote: »
    We can and should operate based on numbers of first vaccines, and on the data that we can gleam from other countries relating to this - there is plenty.

    To assume that Ireland needs to reinvent the wheel suggests that our brightest and best are simple cavemen.

    Agreed. We don’t have to wait and watch like the Brits are doing. We can observe their experience and then anticipate

    But I guess that means knowing how many people we can vaccinate and by when, and that, is proving fckin impossible


This discussion has been closed.
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