Tesla Talk

Marlow · 10-03-2021 2:32pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Plenty of other manufacturers are offering product to SAP including all VAG brands, Daimler, BMW, JLR, Polestar, Ford, Renault, Hyundai, Nissan Opel, Peugeot, Volvo, Streetscooter.
If Tesla are arrogant enough to think large fleets in Germany will come groveling to their door then they are sorely mistaken.
Tesla don't hold a monopoly on EVs.

You're not getting the point.

It makes no difference to Tesla at this point in time, if SAP buys their products or not. They are selling every single vehicle they produce.

Why change your distribution model, when you can't manufacture enough vehicles to supply your current customer base ?

It has nothing to do with arrogance. It's efficient. No need to fix something, that isn't broken.

And yes, Tesla doesn't hold a monopoly on EVs. But the fact is, that everyone is negotiating for the same battery cells. They all come from the same suppliers. The important fact here is, that Tesla has long standing contracts for these cells, so every one else is last in line. And then, that Tesla even is producing their own cells now plus have started their own lithium and nickel mining, so ensure future supply. Those resources won't be available to other automakers in the foreseeable future.

The only other company that has made some steps in that direction is VAG. But they're at least 5 years behind Tesla. I mean, Diess even said so in their workshop brief. It'll take them years in the BEV market to catch up with Tesla on the automotive platform. Nevermind the software platform. They'll probably never catch up on that.

/M

10-03-2021 2:43pm

Marlow wrote: »

You're not getting the point.

It makes no difference to Tesla at this point in time, if SAP buys their products or not. They are selling every single vehicle they produce.

Why change your distribution model, when you can't manufacture enough vehicles to supply your current customer base ?

It has nothing to do with arrogance. It's efficient. No need to fix something, that isn't broken.

And yes, Tesla doesn't hold a monopoly on EVs. But the fact is, that everyone is negotiating for the same battery cells. They all come from the same suppliers. The important fact here is, that Tesla has long standing contracts for these cells, so every one else is last in line. And then, that Tesla even is producing their own cells now plus have started their own lithium and nickel mining, so ensure future supply. Those resources won't be available to other automakers in the foreseeable future.

The only other company that has made some steps in that direction is VAG. But they're at least 5 years behind Tesla. I mean, Diess even said so in their workshop brief. It'll take them years in the BEV market to catch up with Tesla on the automotive platform. Nevermind the software platform. They'll probably never catch up on that.

/M

Tesla can't afford to do new sheet metal to refresh their cars. Just because they are selling at capacity now doesn't mean they'll be selling at capacity in Q4 of this year. Their roadmap has a monster truck, a hypercar and a vague commitment to a compact class car. That doesn't inspire confidence.

slave1 · 10-03-2021 2:49pm

The financial markets disagree

10-03-2021 2:57pm

I'd say Elon's not overly bothered what SAP company car drivers can pick.
Tesla likely to hit previous highs over the next 3 to 6 months IMO......... the force is strong :pac:

Marlow · 10-03-2021 2:59pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Tesla can't afford to do new sheet metal to refresh their cars.

How do you get that idea ?

slave1 wrote: »

The financial markets disagree

Exactly.

Augeo wrote: »

I'd say Elon's not overly bothered what SAP company car drivers can pick.
Tesla likely to hit previous highs over the next 3 to 6 months IMO......... the force is strong :pac:

They are selling every car ... even with increased production. And the financial market agrees at least on that point, it'll last for years to come.

Plus making cars is not their vision. A move to sustainable energy is their vision. That is an aspect, that the article doesn't even consider.

/M

10-03-2021 3:01pm

slave1 wrote: »

The financial markets disagree

You mean retail investors a.k.a. fanboys.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 3:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You mean retail investors a.k.a. fanboys.

No. The likes of Ark Invest and Ron Barron.

Having said that, the retail investors at least did get it right. The majority of wall street didn't. The hedge funds shorting Tesla lost more money last year on shorting Tesla, than the world wide airline industry did loose.

/M

10-03-2021 3:19pm

We aren't going to agree on this. You keep pumping Tesla. I'm keeping as far away from it as is possible.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 3:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

We aren't going to agree on this. You keep pumping Tesla. I'm keeping as far away from it as is possible.

If you're keeping far away, why are you sharing an article about Tesla then, that by just a few simple facts and common sense can be dismantled as a non-issue and clearly is FUD ?

Tesla's growth prediction as per their own annual report is 50% year on year. It'll be a few years, before they have more supply than demand. They aren't even advertising yet. So, why should a company, that doesn't have to advertise be worried about missing out on fleet sales ?

/M

10-03-2021 3:36pm

Marlow wrote: »

If you're keeping far away, why are you sharing an article about Tesla then, that by just a few simple facts and common sense can be dismantled as a non-issue and clearly is FUD ?

Tesla's growth prediction as per their own annual report is 50% year on year. It'll be a few years, before they have more supply than demand. They aren't even advertising yet. So, why should a company, that doesn't have to advertise be worried about missing out on fleet sales ?

/M

SAP or BASF fleet managers are not atypical. If they aren't allowing Tesla be ordered then fleet managers around Europe will be doing likewise for the exact same reasons. Account for that in your exponential growth projections for Tesla.

10-03-2021 3:39pm

Deleted User wrote: »

........... Account for that in your exponential growth projections for Tesla.

50% year on year isn't exponential afaik.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 3:43pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Account for that in your exponential growth projections for Tesla.

Tesla does not expect exponential growth. At least not until the battery cell supply is solved.

Their growth is based on their production capacity build-out and their cell supply.

Fleet managers are a non issue. There isn't enough supply to go around to supply them in the first place. And the article does not take that into consideration. Nor the fact, that Tesla hasn't even started to advertise. Hence it's not relevant.

/M

10-03-2021 3:46pm

Augeo wrote: »

50% year on year isn't exponential afaik.

You try telling that to the fanboys who are pumping the stock. Elon is taking them to the moon mars and back, yes sirree..

Marlow · 10-03-2021 3:51pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You try telling that to the fanboys who are pumping the stock. Elon is taking them to the moon mars and back, yes sirree..

Tesla's stock value comes from 2 factors:
- future revenues. And a lot of that is not from the cars themselves. FSD being one big factor. Stationary storage another.
- the fact, that Tesla stock has been kept down for years while they were executing and achieving most of their targets.

So it's only catching up right now. That's all. It should have been growing steadily over the years, if it hadn't been kept down by short interests. So last year, the majority of those hedge funds had to back out and that's why it's actually growing now. It's just a market correction.

/M

slave1 · 10-03-2021 3:57pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You mean retail investors a.k.a. fanboys.

Yeah, you got that bang on, company with current Market Cap of $681B held by retail investors:rolleyes:

slave1 · 10-03-2021 3:58pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You mean retail investors a.k.a. fanboys.

Deleted User wrote: »

You try telling that to the fanboys who are pumping the stock. Elon is taking them to the moon mars and back, yes sirree..

Back these statements up

10-03-2021 4:00pm

Marlow wrote: »

Tesla's stock value comes from 2 factors:
- future revenues. And a lot of that is not from the cars themselves. FSD being one big factor. Stationary storage another.
- the fact, that Tesla stock has been kept down for years while they were executing and achieving most of their targets.

So it's only catching up right now. That's all. It should have been growing steadily over the years, if it hadn't been kept down by short interests. So last year, the majority of those hedge funds had to back out and that's why it's actually growing now. It's just a market correction.

/M

FSD that isn't going to get approved in Europe. The car I'm driving had to have the active lane assist removed during build because it is not allowed in Europe.
They have no discernable USP for Stationary storage as a technology it doesn't depend on high density batteries and isn't a luxury/premium product by nature.
Future revenues are pie in the sky.
Irrational Exuberance or wha?

10-03-2021 4:06pm

slave1 wrote: »

Back these statements up

30% retail investors. It is an obscenely high percentage

unkel · 10-03-2021 4:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

FSD that isn't going to get approved in Europe.

That's incredibly naive. Of course it will, but it's a matter of time when.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 4:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

They have no discernable USP for Stationary storage as a technology it doesn't depend on high density batteries and isn't a luxury/premium product by nature.

What rock have you been living under ?

A few examples:

The Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia: https://hornsdalepowerreserve.com.au/

That's a 100MW/129MWh stationary storage facility eliminating peak power plants. Literally eliminating the dirtiest part of the power production. And while they don't own it, they sold and build it and they are making ongoing revenue with their autobidder software. Much like FSD for Tesla cars, this is automated sales/buying of electricity.

Another one of these is being build in New South Wales with a capacity of 300MW/450MWh, which will be the biggest one in the world to date.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/australia-picks-massive-tesla-battery-to-ease-transmission-constraint

There are a few projects like these coming online in the UK and Tesla is now even building a 100MW big battery in Texas ... not too far from Tera Austin. Combine that with automated power trading using Tesla's autobidder software, that makes them a utility, not a car maker.

On top of that is Tesla now selling electricity to consumers in the UK and by installing their powerwalls also using these also for electricity trading.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/tesla-energy-plan-launched-inviting-homes-to-become-part-of-virtual-power-plant

And that's not the tip of the iceberg.

/M

10-03-2021 4:10pm

unkel wrote: »

That's incredibly naive. Of course it will, but it's a matter of time when.

It won't be their "implementation" of FSD that is for sure.

10-03-2021 4:11pm

Marlow wrote: »

What rock have you been living under ?

A few examples:

The Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia: https://hornsdalepowerreserve.com.au/

That's a 100MW/129MWh stationary storage facility eliminating peak power plants. Literally eliminating the dirtiest part of the power production.

Another one of these is being build in New South Wales with a capacity of 300MW/450MWh.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/australia-picks-massive-tesla-battery-to-ease-transmission-constraint

There are a few projects like these coming online in the UK and Tesla is now even building a 100MW big battery in Texas ... not too far from Tera Austin. Combine that with automated power trading using Tesla's autobidder software, that makes them a utility, not a car maker.

On top of that is Tesla now selling electricity to consumers and by installing their powerwalls also using these also for electricity trading.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/tesla-energy-plan-launched-inviting-homes-to-become-part-of-virtual-power-plant

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

/M

I'm aware of these self-promotion wheezes by Tesla and I see them for what they are.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 4:16pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm aware of these self-promotion wheezes by Tesla and I see them for what they are.

Well, if you read the Hornsdale story, you'll know, that it paid for itself within 2.5 years. All profit from there.

And if the Texas one had been online before the recent winter disaster, it would have had a similar outcome. It'll take a bit longer to pay for itself, but it'll be a good chunk of income.

And what they are: they are part of what it says in Tesla's mission statement.

You say, "They have no discernable USP for Stationary storage as a technology", yet you forget that they're literally building the biggest battery packs on earth and all the technology that goes with it: cooling and conditioning of the batteries and trading of power. There is a reason Tesla gets more range out of the batteries in their cars than anyone else. Show me somebody, who's doing a better job.

/M

splashthecash · 10-03-2021 4:20pm

Mike9832 wrote: »

Can we make this a general Tesla chat thread?

Tesla seem to be in free fall

Under 200 a share now

Anyone bought stock at this price?

Almost lowest in 5 years

Just bought 2 shares for the craic :pac:

Won't hold on to it for long lol, too volatile

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-Faces-Herculean-Task-As-Share-Price-Tanks.html

I think this could be it for them

Sad if it ends like this, like there cars

We've been saying it for years, so who knows

Elon will have to go?

He's gone awol recently

Delusional taxi fleets/autopilot crap (that won't happen for at least 10 years).

A truck that can't possibly be made with current battery tech.

List goes on and on

Less than a year from now if VW are serious ( they might be ) this is going to leave Tesla as a smudge on the road.

Did you hold onto these shares, or buy more?

10-03-2021 4:21pm

Marlow wrote: »

Well, if you read the Hornsdale story, you'll know, that it paid for itself within 2.5 years. All profit from there.

And if the Texas one had been online before the recent winter disaster, it would have had a similar outcome. It'll take a bit longer to pay for itself, but it'll be a good chunk of income.

And what they are: they are part of what it says in Tesla's mission statement.

/M

Those profits are miniscule in comparison to the dividends that a company of Tesla's size needs to be returning to its shareholders.
electricity storage will in the long term tend toward only normal profit, not supernormal.
If you want to invest in Tesla without a return then go ahead but please don't sucker in more impressionable people who don't understand that the company is grossly overvalued and facing in to a very challenging decade or two.
It is downright irresponsible.

Marlow · 10-03-2021 4:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Those profits are miniscule in comparison to the dividends that a company of Tesla's size needs to be returning to its shareholders.
electricity storage will in the long term tend toward only normal profit, not supernormal.
If you want to invest in Tesla without a return then go ahead but please don't sucker in more impressionable people who don't understand that the company is grossly overvalued and facing in to a very challenging decade or two.
It is downright irresponsible.

Again ... why would Tesla be paying dividends in a growth period ? They are re-investing all money in R&D and building factories.

You can literally compare Tesla's past story with Amazon's story at the start of the naughties.

And I'm just calling out bulls***, when I see bulls***. That article you linked is such bulls***. I didn't start the discussion on stocks. You did. I also didn't start the discussion on the valuation. You did.

/M

10-03-2021 4:31pm

Growth period? Tell that to the people who bought in a 732.

Your biased pumping of Tesla is highly irresponsible.
Elon is prevented from pumping his stock like you do owing to his fiduciary duty to shareholders; he'd end up in prison if he led people that the only way is up with Tesla.

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 4:37pm

Deleted User wrote: »

FSD that isn't going to get approved in Europe. The car I'm driving had to have the active lane assist removed during build because it is not allowed in Europe.
They have no discernable USP for Stationary storage as a technology it doesn't depend on high density batteries and isn't a luxury/premium product by nature.
Future revenues are pie in the sky.
Irrational Exuberance or wha?

ROTFL

Well that doesnt happen in Teslas anyway

Marlow · 10-03-2021 4:38pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Growth period? Tell that to the people who bought in a 732.

I bought as high as 850. Am I worried ? No. My average is way below the current value and Iv'e never dipped in the loss window. I also bought more at 587 a few days ago. We are back up at 687 as of right now.

Deleted User wrote: »

Your biased pumping of Tesla is highly irresponsible.

If you buy a growth stock with future potential build in, then it's a long term investment. I'm not pumping anything here. Everyone has to make up their own mind.

As I said .. you started the discussion referencing FUD in a thread, that is purely about Tesla. I'm just calling it, for what it is and give my reasons for doing so. I didn't start the discussion. If you can't take that, then that's your own problem.

/M

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 4:40pm

Plenty of other stocks have gone down in the past 2-3 weeks, mostly big tech mncs. All are doing similar to Tesla, recovering value this week.
Something bigger is afoot.

Tesla Talk

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