When will it all end?

monkeybutter · 10-03-2021 02:18PM

JDD wrote: »

I agree. Once over-70's and high risk vulnerable are vaccinated we should go to Level 2, automatically. Indoor concerts and outdoor spectators should be allowed once it's all seated and there is two seats between each household group and every second row empty. Indoor events should remain masked for the moment.

so June? running outdoor events like that at less than 50% capacity will be run at a loss, so who would run them

JDD · 10-03-2021 02:20PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

that experiment failed in december, it may have had aggravating factors so its best to be cautious and prevent need for another level 5 The cost sunk in at this point doesn't merit the risk to just blanket reopening and who do you think will be blamed if it doesn't work i mean no ones perfect but at least the government isn't reckless, which is what you want you don't want boris or trump etc

No one was vaccinated in December. It's different now.

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 02:22PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

how many did it save?

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.

Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000

Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

JDD · 10-03-2021 02:23PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

so June? running outdoor events like that at less than 50% capacity will be run at a loss, so who would run them

Dunno about that. Professional sports matches are happening anyway, better to have 10,000 fans in the stands paying for tickets. Yes, it's not as lucrative as 20,000 fans, but it's something.

Concerts that might have been played in smaller venues will need to be played in bigger ones. Those bigger venues will be glad of the business since their normal larger events won't be able to go ahead.

Loads of outdoor music venues will be delighted to hold events even if they have to pay for the hire of 5000 fold out chairs. And people will probably pay a premium to see a live show again.

mcsean2163 · 10-03-2021 02:24PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

how many did it save?

None/ loads, we'll never know. Finland did ok without lockdown but Sweden did not etc.
.
Pro lockdown people will claim 90,000 lifes saved, anti lockdown people will say potential deaths exaggerated.

monkeybutter · 10-03-2021 02:26PM

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm in a cohort that are likely to be affected badly by the virus, hence I am now working from home and only going out for shopping and childcare reasons.

I don't think that the 99.5% of cases that do not result in death/ICU admission should necessitate a lockdown for everyone.

The vaccine is nearly here. We need to open up. We've done our time.

EDIT: You mention Trump and Boris. Both the US and UK have more pro rate vaccines delivered than we do?

did you miss the rest of the year though?

Both got covid due to moronic personal stupidity, thats the tip of the iceberg

The vaccine delivery has only gotten started, maybe we should judge after the fact

they are moving towards opening up

you are lucky, you have an underlying condition that doesn't stop you getting a vaccine and you had the sense to treat it seriously

You might have only avoided it because the rest of the population were in lockdown

monkeybutter · 10-03-2021 02:30PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.

Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000

Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

hmm those stats are because of the lockdown

thats their worst case scenario, estimated 1 year ago

so you don't know how many it saved do ya, it could have been 40k, it could have been 10k

december and jan showed the tip of the iceberg of what it could have been like

JDD · 10-03-2021 02:32PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.

Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000

Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

Not being pernickity, but isn't our death rate 2%? 223k cases, 4.5k deaths? I know we won't have picked up all cases in our tests, and certainly there's an amount of asymptomatic infections that didn't get picked up at all (though some would have through contact tracing and HCW/nursing home/meat factory weekly testing). If you're saying that the death rate is 0.1% in reality, that means that we've only picked up a twentieth of the real case numbers, that means the whole population has in fact already had covid and there's absolutely no need for vaccines?

Is that what you're saying?

monkeybutter · 10-03-2021 02:32PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

None/ loads, we'll never know. Finland did ok without lockdown but Sweden did not etc.
.
Pro lockdown people will claim 90,000 lifes saved, anti lockdown people will say potential deaths exaggerated.

is this not the point, that was worst case scenario 1 year ago and things can change

finland are currently in lockdown or starting, I'm pretty sure they had some restrictions and sweden had less, so that explains the difference

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 02:32PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

did you miss the rest of the year though?

Both got covid due to moronic personal stupidity, thats the tip of the iceberg

The vaccine delivery has only gotten started, maybe we should judge after the fact

they are moving towards opening up

you are lucky, you have an underlying condition that doesn't stop you getting a vaccine and you had the sense to treat it seriously

You might have only avoided it because the rest of the population were in lockdown

I avoided it because I left my house once per week, kept my distance, and wore a mask.

If everyone did this we wouldnt have theneed for a lockdown at all.

spaceHopper · 10-03-2021 02:33PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000

The only death rate that counts is % of cases and if it was your loved one who died would you be OK with them being a statistic.

As it stands now it's a little under 2% but if we all got it over a very short time like 3 months there isn't a hope in hell our hospitals would be able to treat everybody who needed it so, deaths would sky rocket. So what would the cut off age where if you're over say 67, 70... it's to bad sorry we can't treat you.

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 02:36PM

spaceHopper wrote: »

The only death rate that counts is % of cases and if it was your loved one who died would you be OK with them being a statistic.

As it stands now it's a little under 2% but if we all got it over a very short time like 3 months there isn't a hope in hell our hospitals would be able to treat everybody who needed it so, deaths would sky rocket. So what would the cut off age where if you're over say 67, 70... it's to bad sorry we can't treat you.

Or just keep your distance, wear a mask, practice good hand hygiene and you wont get it.

3 the square · 10-03-2021 02:37PM

Any chance the ploughing championships will go ahead in September ??

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 02:42PM

JDD wrote: »

Not being pernickity, but isn't our death rate 2%? 223k cases, 4.5k deaths? I know we won't have picked up all cases in our tests, and certainly there's an amount of asymptomatic infections that didn't get picked up at all (though some would have through contact tracing and HCW/nursing home/meat factory weekly testing). If you're saying that the death rate is 0.1% in reality, that means that we've only picked up a twentieth of the real case numbers, that means the whole population has in fact already had covid and there's absolutely no need for vaccines?

Is that what you're saying?

Exactly that.What Ive highlighted above is the Case Fatality rate which is not a good indicator as not everyone is tested and some are asymptomatic so its always going to be higher.

Percentage as an over all % of the population is a better indicator and at 4.7 million population and 4452 deaths its only 0.093%

In over 65s its 0.6 % 700k (over65s) @ 0.6% is 4200 deaths.

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 02:42PM

Batattackrat wrote: »

Do people actually abide by the 5KM restrictions? Anyone I know don't whatsoever.

Thankfully the 5km doesn’t apply to me. Due to my work i can go anywhere ( i do 1000km a week). My partner lives 10km away but i can visit her because she lives on her own ( support bubble). This pandemic hasn’t affected my day to day life at all. The only thing is currently i can’t visit family in USA at the moment.

RGS · 10-03-2021 02:45PM

We are in a different space now than 12 months ago.
The right decision was taken in march 2020 to lockdown.

Now lockdown level 5 is the wrong decision. We need to move far more quickly to re opening society and the economy.

This is not a call to return to life as in 2019.

On 5 April MM should move the 5km limit to county boundaries--easier to patrol than the 5km limit.
Outdoor non contact sports should re commence immediately.
Children's sports should re commence training in pods as before.
Non essential retail should be opened.
Outdoor dining should be allowed.

By May we should be able to allow hotels open to guests and start to encourage staycations.
All sports should be able to re start including contact sports.

But we all know this is not going to happen. Government and NPHET will maintain the overly cautious approach, concern will be expressed over the various variants, known and unknown.
The phrase "we are not where we want to be" will be trotted out.

The fear is already been circulated by the government as per press briefing this morning as reported in the Journal.

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-patricks-day-9-5377259-Mar2021/

Its always the stick from our government.

HBC08 · 10-03-2021 02:45PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The lockdowns didnt save 95,000 people as was the "experts" predictions when covid entered Ireland.

Aren't you the guy who was trying to say 2.2m single dose j&j jabs were going to be here in the next 20 days?
Forgive me if youre not the man i go to for numbers or facts.

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 02:47PM

RGS wrote: »

We are in a different space now than 12 months ago.
The right decision was taken in march 2020 to lockdown.

Now lockdown level 5 is the wrong decision. We need to move far more quickly to re opening society and the economy.

This is not a call to return to life as in 2019.

On 5 April MM should move the 5km limit to county boundaries--easier to patrol than the 5km limit.
Outdoor non contact sports should re commence immediately.
Children's sports should re commence training in pods as before.
Non essential retail should be opened.
Outdoor dining should be allowed.

By May we should be able to allow hotels open to guests and start to encourage staycations.
All sports should be able to re start including contact sports.

But we all know this is not going to happen. Government and NPHET will maintain the overly cautious approach, concern will be expressed over the various variants, known and unknown.
The phrase "we are not where we want to be" will be trotted out.

The fear is already been circulated by the government as per press briefing this morning as reported in the Journal.

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-patricks-day-9-5377259-Mar2021/

Its always the stick from our government.

We should open up and remove all restrictions from April.

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 02:52PM

spaceHopper wrote: »

The only death rate that counts is % of cases and if it was your loved one who died would you be OK with them being a statistic.

As it stands now it's a little under 2% but if we all got it over a very short time like 3 months there isn't a hope in hell our hospitals would be able to treat everybody who needed it so, deaths would sky rocket. So what would the cut off age where if you're over say 67, 70... it's to bad sorry we can't treat you.

Im only giving you figures that can be proven. CFR cant be proven as accurate unless you test the entire country as some people have covid dont even know they have it , havent been tested or have false positives.

How about hospitalisations versus deaths?

Surely thats a better indicator of death rate??

Thats a 30.34% death rate - 15000 hosptalised and 4552 deaths.

Again cant be used as a proper indicator as

1.Not everyone that caught the virus was hospitalised and
2. A lot of these deaths were in the community or nursing homes.

Figures can be manipulated to get your point across but Ive done the maths on 13 european countries and the death rate as a % of population is always fairly constant @ 0.08 - 0.09 % of the entire population will die with covid and if you are over 65 then its 0.5 - 0.6%

The czech republic stands out as a fair bit higher but someone in another thread pointed out they have a higher population with underlying health issues.

dublin49 · 10-03-2021 02:52PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Exactly that.What Ive highlighted above is the Case Fatality rate which is not a good indicator as not everyone is tested and some are asymptomatic so its always going to be higher.

Percentage as an over all % of the population is a better indicator and at 4.7 million population and 4452 deaths its only 0.093%

In over 65s its 0.6 % 700k (over65s) @ 0.6% is 4200 deaths.

But those are the death rates for a period when mostly we are/were in lockdown,the number of deaths could be a large multiple of 4452 if we open up ,no?

JDD · 10-03-2021 02:53PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Exactly that.What Ive highlighted above is the Case Fatality rate which is not a good indicator as not everyone is tested and some are asymptomatic so its always going to be higher.

Percentage as an over all % of the population is a better indicator and at 4.7 million population and 4452 deaths its only 0.093%

In over 65s its 0.6 % 700k (over65s) @ 0.6% is 4200 deaths.

Eh? Are you saying that if the country was completely open for the past year, we'd still only have 4452 deaths? Because our population number is fixed, but the death number is variable depending on the level of infections.

Surely we just double the number of confirmed infections to get a ballpark of the actual number of cases over the past year, and then work out what the death rate is from there. Which would be 1%, not 0.1%.

And then we'd work out what the actual number of death would be if 80% of the country caught covid over the course of a year, which is not unreasonable in a fairly infectious illness. Which would be 40,000 deaths.

However, what we're not factoring in is hospital capacity. Say we have a rate of hospitalisation of 5%. And say, if covid was let rip through the community, the peak of infections is 10% of the population infected during a particular month.

That's 470,000 infected, with 25,000 needing hospitalisation. We've only got 14,000 beds, for absolutely everyone. You put in field tents, but you'd have no one to staff them. Loads more people would die. 90,000 seems rather conservative in those circumstances.

spaceHopper · 10-03-2021 02:53PM

ELM327 wrote: »

Or just keep your distance, wear a mask, practice good hand hygiene and you wont get it.

New (UK) variants are more transmissible and we all let our guard down from time to time. If you live on your own fine but there are 4 in our household so if one gets a new variant all of us would probably get it.

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 02:53PM

HBC08 wrote: »

Aren't you the guy who was trying to say 2.2m single dose j&j jabs were going to be here in the next 20 days?
Forgive me if youre not the man i go to for numbers or facts.

I linked to an article from our National broadcaster which has now been removed for obviously being incorrect.
And if you followed the thread I accepted it was incorrect.

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 02:53PM

dublin49 wrote: »

But those are the death rates for a period when mostly we are/were in lockdown,the number of deaths could be a large multiple of 4452 if we open up ,no?

Vaccines are here, the majority of the elderly are now vaccinated.
Next cohort is obese people and or people with certain conditions.

Open up!!

ELM327 · 10-03-2021 02:54PM

spaceHopper wrote: »

New (UK) variants are more transmissible and we all let our guard down from time to time. If you live on your own fine but there are 4 in our household so if one gets a new variant all of us would probably get it.

There are 4 in our household too.
Mask wearing, hand sanitizing etc has meant we havent gotten it so far.

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 03:01PM

dublin49 wrote: »

But those are the death rates for a period when mostly we are/were in lockdown,the number of deaths could be a large multiple of 4452 if we open up ,no?

Thats total deaths as a % of the population up till last night.
Who knows if it will increase if we open up.
the vaccines will play a role in hopefully keeping the deaths low.

monkeybutter · 10-03-2021 03:03PM

ELM327 wrote: »

I avoided it because I left my house once per week, kept my distance, and wore a mask.

If everyone did this we wouldnt have theneed for a lockdown at all.

that is lockdown, i know yo are saying only you need do it

there are many vectors for infection, childcare sounds like one of them s you mentioned it, does your whole family need to stay locked in

but you also have to see you had less chance of getting it because the number of people you encountered with it was low

that is the whole point

spaceHopper · 10-03-2021 03:05PM

ELM327 wrote: »

There are 4 in our household too.
Mask wearing, hand sanitizing etc has meant we havent gotten it so far.

No living like hermits and not letting our kids out to play with others has done it but that's not sustainable it's bad for their development and forming friendships

At the end of the day we are stuck until most people have the vaccine

10-03-2021 03:07PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

None/ loads, we'll never know. Finland did ok without lockdown but Sweden did not etc.
.
Pro lockdown people will claim 90,000 lifes saved, anti lockdown people will say potential deaths exaggerated.

Sweden did about the EU average.

10-03-2021 03:10PM

dublin49 wrote: »

But those are the death rates for a period when mostly we are/were in lockdown,the number of deaths could be a large multiple of 4452 if we open up ,no?

Sweden disproves this as does Florida, one of the Dakotas etc. As does the Diamond Princess right back at the start of all this.

When will it all end?

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