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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #4262
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    techdiver wrote: »
    This binary discussion always goes around about causes of x and y. The truth is often somewhere in between but people take an entrenched view and won't be swayed. The Christmas spike was caused by a multitude of issues. To say travel had nothing to do with it is ignoring facts. To also say that it was nothing to do with socialising and all to do with travel or retail is equally ignoring the facts. Everything contributed.

    Yes, the government should have had better travel restrictions in place earlier. In my opinion the government have gone out of their way not to do it and have introduced a flimsy version (to claim they have done something) at the moment and are hoping to kick the can down the road until the vaccine starts to work.

    Having retail closed in the run up to Christmas more than likely also caused issues too. Restricting all in person Christmas shopping to a small window was always going to cause demand and congestion. In saying all that, the major cause had to be socialising. The nature of behaviour and travel patterns at Christmas in Ireland points towards this. Add to that the kite flying regarding potential restrictions in January and no wonder people behaved the way they did. Now we could have reduced the issue with more stringent travel restrictions, but the UK strain was always going to get in here regardless.

    In short people need to stop arguing for A or B when in fact the answer is AB.

    Yeah lots of contributory factors no doubt. My response was to the article that stated in HSPC report that the third wave began in early November (which it did probably). The OP then posted that this should stop any talk of "a meaningful Christmas" being the caused of it.

    Unfortunately the meaningful Christmas had a lot to do with. (not the only thing mind)


  • #4263
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    techdiver wrote: »
    no wonder people behaved the way they did..

    Adult humans are not helpless automatons with no brains to figure out what is the wisest course of action.
    Or ...hang on.... :) hmmmm.

    The Christmas shopping/ buying pandemonium and drink guzzling mania is neurotic herd behaviour at the best of times. No one was compelled to do anything.


  • #4264
    techdiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭techdiver


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yeah lots of contributory factors no doubt. My response was to the article that stated in HSPC report that the third wave began in early November (which it did probably). The OP then posted that this should stop any talk of "a meaningful Christmas" being the caused of it.

    Unfortunately the meaningful Christmas had a lot to do with. (not the only thing mind)

    The "meaningful Christmas" thing covers all aspects in my opinion. To some it meant day long shopping sprees in packed shopping centres, for others it was going out socialising and meeting friends, and for the remaking it was the time for the extended family to get together (something many families have not been able to do all year). For many it was all of the above.

    It's human nature and people can't be blamed to an extent. [tongue-in-cheek] We all partied[/tongue-in-cheek].


  • #4265
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,650 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Adult humans are not helpless automatons with no brains to figure out what is the wisest course of action.
    Or ...hang on.... :) hmmmm.

    The Christmas shopping/ buying pandemonium and drink guzzling mania is neurotic herd behaviour at the best of times. No one was compelled to do anything.

    Treat us like adults and we will behave like adults.

    We have been treated like children since last March right up to today, the govt has to forcefully decide what we can and cant do.


  • #4266
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    techdiver wrote: »

    It's human nature and people can't be blamed to an extent. [tongue-in-cheek] We all partied[/tongue-in-cheek].

    :) i get the funny slant.

    But the activities or indeedvany activities are not automatic human nature. Things are conditioned into us.
    A lot of people and family I know have years ago left behing the shopping and gifting mania that is supposed to make Christmas "special". A few bits and bobs is enough.
    Most know that you can only eat so much and the shops will be open again 12 hours after xmas so why get into some grocery frenzy.
    Most I know did proper self quarantine before going home to elderly parents. No socialising with others because they wanted to be safe to see their family.
    People were often glad to have a quiet hibernating midwinter. Zoom calls for the laugh with other families. Honestly a lot of people seriously dialed down the Christmas madness this year for the exact reason of it not being suitable for the times.
    On the more general point people can be blamed if they act or acted without forethought or awareness. In general. In specific. Like that is what adult responsibility and intelligence is about.
    Jesus I cannot believe how much people support and thank the learned helplessness excuses on here. Anywayzzzz..


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  • #4267
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Treat us like adults and we will behave like adults.

    We have been treated like children since last March right up to today, the govt has to forcefully decide what we can and cant do.

    Ah come on.
    The govt does not make me a child and infantilise me.


  • #4268
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,650 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Ah come on.
    The govt does not make me a child and infantilise me.

    When they treat the public like children and make decisions on what you can/cant do - dont be surprised when the govt opens up and says "you can socialise", and then people start socialising.


  • #4269
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    timmyntc wrote: »
    When they treat the public like children and make decisions on what you can/cant do - dont be surprised when the govt opens up and says "you can socialise", and then people start socialising.

    The govt always makes rules. Changes them. Does not mean we do not have our own independent minds. I don't like this big over-arching idea emerging to great acclaim of the government being or controlling our intelligence, morality and conscience. Seems bloody weird to me.


  • #4270
    techdiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭techdiver


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    :) i get the funny slant.

    But the activities or indeedvany activities are not automatic human nature. Things are conditioned into us.

    You state the above but then at the same time expect it to change over a short period. That is not probable. Behavioural science will show that. The traits you bemoan are actual traits of the human race as a whole. These don't change within 10 months.

    To govern for such behaviours you first need to understand them. Not liking how it transpired does not mean it should not be taken into consideration. If we governed by an idealistic view of the human race we wouldn't get too far.

    BTW, I'm not saying that "partying like it's 1999", was a good idea or even excusable. What I'm saying is it had to be expected, especially when you tell people that they only have a 2 week window. The "meaningful Christmas" was the selling point for earlier restrictions. When you place something on a pedestal like that you are naive to expect a different outcome.

    Anyway, I'm going down a rabbit hole here. The original point I was trying to make is that arguing that A or B was the cause was ignoring the nuance of the situation.


  • #4271
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    techdiver wrote: »
    You state the above but then at the same time expect it to change over a short period. That is not probable. Behavioural science will show that. The traits you bemoan are actual traits of the human race

    They are not though. I have done Christmas in lots of other countries. Some of my kids spent Christmas in Europe this year. The supposed Irish Christmas is not some an engrained trait of the human being. People are way more casual and low key elsewhere, and like to be home with close family having a rest. Like I said most of the people I know took it very very handy over the Christmas this year and had a nice time. These engrained traits you argue are natural and take time to change are just senseless shallow herd behaviour that can be dropped in a flash.


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  • #4272
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    The same people again and again thank the helpless automaton excuses :) I thought ye were all fierce independent people!


  • #4273
    eddie73
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 648 ✭✭✭eddie73


    I did a bit of my own research on RIP.IE.

    I took JAN-FEB registered deaths from 2014 - 2021 and plotted numbers as the CEO has yet to release their quarterly figures from last July - December. I figure this is the only way to look behind the numbers with any sort of clarity.

    These numbers are crude deaths. They are not prefixed as being "seasonally adjusted" for Covid or anything else.

    Each page of recorded deaths on rip.ie contains 40 deaths.

    2021 Jan 136 pages; Feb 113 pages; +55 pages = 2,200 excess deaths
    2020 Jan 103 pages; Feb 91 pages; +4 pages = 160 excess deaths
    2019 Jan 102 pages; Feb 88 pages; +13 pages = 520 excess deaths
    2018 Jan 87 pages; Feb 90 pages; +5 pages = 200 excess deaths
    2017 Jan 87 pages; Feb 85 pages; +1 page = 40 excess deaths
    2016 Jan 87 pages; Feb 86 pages; +5 pages = 200 excess deaths
    2015 Jan 85 pages; Feb 83 pages; +9 pages = 360 excess deaths
    2014 Jan 81 pages; Feb 78 pages;

    Things to consider:
    1 Ageing population means that excessive deaths will increase every year, and the stats are reflecting this.

    2 Why the massive discrepancy in 2021 compared to the previous years?


  • #4274
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    NPHET and the government got it wrong.

    The Xmas wave was a combination of four factors:

    a) locking down too severely, for too long post-September over relatively modest infection numbers - creating tension and pent-up demand
    b) telling the population they have 2 weeks to do as much as they possibly can
    c) the inevitability that a lot of interaction would happen at Xmas anyway, irrespective of whether people were told not to mix
    d) weather / seasonal factors; impact on respiratory viruses

    Those four factors created the perfect storm for viral transmission.

    True, there may have been a wave anyway (see point c.) - but how the government and NPHET mismanaged the entire process from September onward is what led to the extraordinary wave that we saw in January.

    e) Tens of thousands of people travelling over from the UK for Christmas, bringing with them a delightful variant that has set us back months.


  • #4275
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Deleted User wrote: »
    e) Tens of thousands of people travelling over from the UK for Christmas, bringing with them a delightful variant that has set us back months.

    The UK variant was making its way here regardless


  • #4276
    MarkY91
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,072 ✭✭✭MarkY91


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    e) Tens of thousands of people travelling over from the UK for Christmas, bringing with them a delightful variant that has set us back months.

    But the millions of Irish out getting socks and jocks in Penney's, having Christmas parties and socialising all over the place has nothing to do with it.

    Those damn Brits.....


  • #4277
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Deleted User wrote: »
    e) Tens of thousands of people travelling over from the UK for Christmas, bringing with them a delightful variant that has set us back months.

    The government did tell people not to travel though. The policy has long been one of direction rather than stick. Really only fines and enforcement has come to the fore post Christmas.

    Trusting people to do the right thing was always going to be a mistake though.


  • #4278
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    I gotta say, seeing as we're almost a year from Leo's Washington speech, if you step back from the meaningful Christmas/Schools/Vaccine rollout arguments and realise where we actually are, it's bloody impressive.

    Social distancing has somehow been maintained by the majority for a length of time almost unimaginable this time last year. We were told 2 weeks to flatten the curve with no exit plan, that vaccines were 12/18 months away minimum, and now we're at 10% of the adult population with at least one dose. We've seen 3 waves, awful stuff altogether, but we're hopefully coming out of the worst one we'll see, and things are looking up.

    So while it's been a very tough and long year, given the ups and downs and the fact that it seems vaccinating is the only route out of this, it's pretty crazy to think it's also 'only' been a year and there are millions already vaccinated, CDC saying you can stop wearing masks and distancing once vaccinated, etc.

    The atomic details like vaccine delays are very stressful, probably because it feels like we're close after sacrificing so much, but everyone should give themselves some credit for how far we've come.


  • #4279
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,738 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    agoodpunt wrote: »
    will we still be talking about xmas after we've been embarrassed into opening up by the rest of the world

    the problem is we learnt nothing from that opening and are blindly going into the same again. hopefully we will be bailed out by some decent weather and vaccines by the time we done open everything.

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #4280
    Skyfloater
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 424 ✭✭Skyfloater


    10%! It will be a while yet.


  • #4281
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Paschal Donohoe being asked why can't we find vaccine supply outside of the existing eu procurement like other Eu countries.

    Basically replied "lets see how successful those attempts will be"

    At least they are trying. Blaming supply is nauseating while not trying to source more supply.

    https://twitter.com/sputnikvaccine/status/1369024087171956743?s=20


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  • #4282
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Treat us like adults and we will behave like adults.

    We have been treated like children since last March right up to today, the govt has to forcefully decide what we can and cant do.

    Adults behave like adults no matter how they are treated. Over aged children, not so much.


  • #4283
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    The UK variant was making its way here regardless

    Correct, the only thing keeping the UK variant out is 'Zero-Covid' New Zealand style and even then it's not guaranteed. The variant hysteria is really driven by the Zero-Covid fetishists.


  • #4284
    jhegarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    OwenM wrote: »
    Correct, the only thing keeping the UK variant out is 'Zero-Covid' New Zealand style and even then it's not guaranteed. The variant hysteria is really driven by the Zero-Covid fetishists.

    It has already gotten into New Zealand.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/new-zealand-uk-variant-lockdown-5354679-Feb2021/


  • #4285
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Adult humans are not helpless automatons with no brains to figure out what is the wisest course of action.
    Or ...hang on.... :) hmmmm.

    The Christmas shopping/ buying pandemonium and drink guzzling mania is neurotic herd behaviour at the best of times. No one was compelled to do anything.

    Or you know just people wanting to enjoy themselves.


  • #4286
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    jhegarty wrote: »
    It has already gotten into New Zealand.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/new-zealand-uk-variant-lockdown-5354679-Feb2021/

    Any cases in New Zealand were more likely to be of this or any other more contagious variant, simply because they are more contagious.

    I also read that they have decided to go 100% Pfizer and aren't really considering it to be that urgent to roll it out, wonder how long the public patience will last with the threat of a hard lockdown never being more than 24 hrs away. Imagine you are getting married at the weekend, you don't really know until Friday afternoon that it really is happening.


  • #4287
    Oranage2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,129 ✭✭✭✭Oranage2


    OwenM wrote: »
    Any cases in New Zealand were more likely to be of this or any other more contagious variant, simply because they are more contagious.

    I also read that they have decided to go 100% Pfizer and aren't really considering it to be that urgent to roll it out, wonder how long the public patience will last with the threat of a hard lockdown never being more than 24 hrs away. Imagine you are getting married at the weekend, you don't really know until Friday afternoon that it really is happening.

    This is the mentality that has it as bad as it is! If people think their little wedding is more important than saving millions of lives, well I'm sorry I've no sympathy for them.


  • #4288
    big syke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 903 ✭✭✭big syke


    Two further deaths and 240 cases reported in Northern Ireland. Vaccine seems to be working.


  • #4289
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Or you know just people wanting to enjoy themselves.

    But there were perfectly good and rational reasons for people to be very low key and reserved this year and if they were not, that was an independent decision they made. Decisions that multiplied demographically had serious consequences.
    On an ordinary Christmas people can hump in the streets for all I care.


  • #4290
    big syke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 903 ✭✭✭big syke


    Positive Swabs
    414

    Positivity Rate
    3.36%

    Swabs processed
    12,330


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  • #4291
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    3.36!

    https://twitter.com/covid19dataie/status/1369319322779344900?s=21


This discussion has been closed.
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