Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

Graham · 09-03-2021 12:15PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

OECD disagrees

OECD does not say "last Summer Ireland was Europe’s most suppressed nation" which is what you claimed.

It's interesting to see posters consider the stringency index fair and accurate when it supports their 'too strict' claim but not when it doesn't.

Hmmmmm

Whatsisname · 09-03-2021 12:33PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Are you surprised? Mad McConkey and his Merry band of ISAG dark lords will always want restrictions.

Just this morning Tomas Ryan expressed concern over the possibility of fragments of the virus now incubating on Mars via the Perseverance rover.

“This is not something we should rule out. If there’s life on Mars that gives the virus ample opportunity to mutate and one thing we can be sure of is that this virus thrives on our complacency.”

The media have put out such nonsense over the last year I can't even tell if this is satire or not.

Klonker · 09-03-2021 12:45PM

Graham wrote: »

OECD does not say "last Summer Ireland was Europe’s most suppressed nation" which is what you claimed.

It's interesting to see posters consider the stringency index fair and accurate when it supports their 'too strict' claim but not when it doesn't.

Hmmmmm

Only one metric but did any other EU country not open pubs at all last summer? For some reason I doubt it. During the same period Ireland had some of the lowest covid rates in the EU.

Graham · 09-03-2021 01:05PM

Klonker wrote: »

Only one metric but did any other EU country not open pubs at all last summer? For some reason I doubt it. During the same period Ireland had some of the lowest covid rates in the EU.

Are dots joining?

paddyisreal · 09-03-2021 01:07PM

Graham wrote: »

Are dots joining?

Yes it was the summer, do you get it yet?

mightyreds · 09-03-2021 01:08PM

Graham wrote: »

Are dots joining?

Stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown seems to be the plan alright.

Graham · 09-03-2021 01:11PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

Yes it was the summer, do you get it yet?

Yes, we managed to keep restrictions at a lower level over the summer. For the most part a lower level than many of our neighbours.

It came at a price no doubt, hospitality definitely suffered to allow other parts of the economy to remain open.

paddyisreal · 09-03-2021 01:13PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

https://www.newstalk.com/news/mcconkey-reopening-needs-to-be-slower-and-more-gradual-than-last-summer-1161802

He was impressed at the UK’s conservative plans

Not the ones that will have 10,000 fans at PL games this season

He wants us more suppressed than last Summer, in spite of the fact the vaccine is causing massive decays in hospitals cases, and the fact that last Summer Ireland was Europe’s most suppressed nation

Heard that interview, out of all them experts he really is golden. His solution for contact tracing was to give everyone a phone for free. Pie in the sky stuff and he gets paid for it.

Graham · 09-03-2021 01:14PM

mightyreds wrote: »

Stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown seems to be the plan alright.

Only if you simplify it to the point of stupidity.

In the real world the goal is to get numbers to a low enough level that restrictions can be relaxed with less chance of them being reimposed again.

It's all to do with exponential growth. Starting from a lower base gives us a much longer run.

FintanMcluskey · 09-03-2021 01:18PM

Graham wrote: »

Yes, we managed to keep restrictions at a lower level over the summer. For the most part a lower level than many of our neighbours.

It came at a price no doubt, hospitality definitely suffered to allow other parts of the economy to remain open.

Ah come out of it

What are you smoking

paddyisreal · 09-03-2021 01:18PM

Graham wrote: »

Yes, we managed to keep restrictions at a lower level over the summer. For the most part a lower level than many of our neighbours.

It came at a price no doubt, hospitality definitely suffered to allow other parts of the economy to remain open.

We managed to keep them at a lower level because it was the summer... Outdoor dining was open a large part of last summer and guess what the world didn't fall in. Even gastro pubs were open for a good while.

paddyisreal · 09-03-2021 01:21PM

Graham wrote: »

Only if you simplify it to the point of stupidity.

In the real world the goal is to get numbers to a low enough level that restrictions can be relaxed with less chance of them being reimposed again.

It's all to do with exponential growth. Starting from a lower base gives us a much longer run.

Who cares about positive case numbers, it's the hospital admissions and icu numbers and there in is the problem going forward. There could be large numbers of cases but little admissions due to the vaccine. In that scenario do you think we should remain locked down?

Klonker · 09-03-2021 01:23PM

Graham wrote: »

Are dots joining?

And were all those other countries in lighter restrictions badly effected by them? Any hospitals overrun? You were the one trying to make the point we hadn't out of step harsh restrictions here and now you are championing those same harsh restrictions. Which is it?

My point is we had less cases yet harsher restrictions. Do they correlate? Yes but when we got low numbers why couldn't we have opened like rest of Europe who all got through the summer relatively unscathed.

Graham wrote: »

Yes, we managed to keep restrictions at a lower level over the summer. For the most part a lower level than many of our neighbours.

It came at a price no doubt, hospitality definitely suffered to allow other parts of the economy to remain open.

Any proof of 'lower than many of our neighbours'? And don't link articles of restrictions back in March or April last year as that's not when we are talking about.

JDxtra · 09-03-2021 01:29PM

Many kids back at school now over a week and the country hasn't exploded. Case numbers and hospital numbers dropping.

The government will have a hard time convincing the general population to support keeping construction, click and collect and the 5km rule in place after April 5th.

Although, I'm sure Tony and the rest of NPHET are hatching some plan to elevate the fear levels to support their one sided agenda. Pretty sure they go to bed at night praying for some new variant.

Graham · 09-03-2021 01:30PM

Klonker wrote: »

And were all those other countries in lighter restrictions badly effected by them? Any hospitals overrun? You were the one trying to make the point we hadn't out of step harsh restrictions here and now you are championing those same harsh restrictions. Which is it?

No, I was countering the falsehood that we'd had the harshest restrictions.

Mitch Connor · 09-03-2021 01:33PM

Boggles wrote: »

Will you take yourself as proof?

Restrictions at a lower level, not incidence rates.

TonyMaloney · 09-03-2021 01:35PM

Google mobility data for retail & recreation (which includes pubs & restaurants), suggests Ireland was among the most restricted in Europe during the summer in this regard. We're in a group that includes Spain, Luxembourg and the UK.
The most restricted ostensibly was the UK, but I think that was due to a combo of restrictions and a sensible lack of confidence in the safety of these settings from a large proportion of the UK population.

At the other end of the scale, many of the most relaxed countries - Poland, Hungary, Czech rep etc - well looking back at this now it's pretty clear that they obviously had terrible policies and messaging in place, because they all went on to have a disastrous autumn and winter.

you can play around with it here
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/change-visitors-retail-recreation?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-06-01..2020-08-31&country=GBR~FRA~ITA~ESP~IRL~DEU~NOR~NLD~GRC~BEL~AUT~HRV~CZE~HUN~LUX~PRT~POL~SWE~SVN~SVK~BGR~CHE~ROU&region=World

FintanMcluskey · 09-03-2021 01:49PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Google mobility data for retail & recreation (which includes pubs & restaurants), suggests Ireland was among the most restricted in Europe during the summer in this regard. We're in a group that includes Spain, Luxembourg and the UK.
The most restricted ostensibly was the UK, but I think that was due to a combo of restrictions and a sensible lack of confidence in the safety of these settings from a large proportion of the UK population.

At the other end of the scale, many of the most relaxed countries - Poland, Hungary, Czech rep etc - well looking back at this now it's pretty clear that they obviously had terrible policies and messaging in place, because they all went on to have a disastrous autumn and winter.

you can play around with it here
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/change-visitors-retail-recreation?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-06-01..2020-08-31&country=GBR~FRA~ITA~ESP~IRL~DEU~NOR~NLD~GRC~BEL~AUT~HRV~CZE~HUN~LUX~PRT~POL~SWE~SVN~SVK~BGR~CHE~ROU&region=World

While I agree with the fact Ireland was one of the most suppressed, it also had one of the highest case numbers and numbers of vulnerable deaths in Europe this Winter.

Severe mitigation measures in the community don’t appear to correlate to low numbers of deaths of the vulnerable not in the community

muddypuppy · 09-03-2021 01:50PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

I live in Spain.

Can confirm this chart is dishonest bollocks.

Apart from traveling back home I can do almost everything I did before this pandemic started.

I wasn't going to matches and nightclubs before anyway.

But tennis, the odd lunch/dinner in a restaurant, going to the beach, going for a hike etc .. all ok.

It really has two major issues:
- If a country has different regulation in different parts, it just consider the strictest one. Ireland is applying the same restrictions everywhere in most part of the country (there was a few weeks of extra restrictions in Dublin and a few weeks of level 4 in the border countries, but that's it), bigger/other countries don't.
- It includes vaccination rate and economic help from the state. This help Ireland go down because the PUP is pretty great from what I can tell. But I don't think it should be included in something called "lockdown stringency index".

Overall it's not bad if you want a single number to represent how much a country is closed down AND how much the state is doing to help. But it's a terrible graph to throw around and use to argue which countries has kept things closed for longer.

See https://www.aier.org/article/oxfords-stringency-index-is-falling-apart/ for more

Graham · 09-03-2021 01:55PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

While I agree with the fact Ireland was one of the most suppressed, it also had one of the highest case numbers and numbers of vulnerable deaths in Europe this Winter.

Unfortunately we did. Deaths started climbing just after restrictions were eased over Christmas and didn't begin to fall again until the start of February.

FintanMcluskey · 09-03-2021 02:08PM

Graham wrote: »

Unfortunately we did. Deaths started climbing just after restrictions were eased over Christmas and didn't begin to fall again until the start of February.

Which I suppose obscures any proof between severe mitigation measures and low death rates.

If your health service isn’t up to scratch your snookered basically, lockdown or not. Sweden is proof, minimal mitigation and average death numbers of vulnerable.

How robust a democracy is in future is dependant on its health service it seems.

Just because liberties are curtailed long term in the name of the nations health doesn’t mean democracy and human rights aren’t suspended

paw patrol · 09-03-2021 02:28PM

Russman wrote: »

Sure haven't a select few of the malcontents on boards been advocating that for months now, you know with the whole "let the medically vulnerable people lock themselves away and let the rest of us get on with it"

yes i have.
it's not the same thing by a long shot - you know the whole consent and a lack of coercion at all that good stuff.
People self isolating cos they are concerned is not the same thing and purposely excluding people. But you know that anyway but couldn't resist twisting what I said cos you've no other argument

Pretty insincere of you..

Russman · 09-03-2021 02:31PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We were right to impose harsher restrictions after Christmas (personally I think they should have been harsher during the Christmas period as well but that's a whole discussion in itself).

We were wrong to keep a relatively high level of restrictions last summer, as we ended up having a similarly disastrous winter as those who were much more open last summer.

Those statements can both be true and aren't contradictory.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but (and maybe I'm remembering it incorrectly) apart from so-called wet pubs, wasn't pretty much everything open last summer ? Obviously bar stadiums, concerts etc. I thought we got back to relatively close to normal for a while in the late summer ?

TonyMaloney · 09-03-2021 02:34PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We were right to impose harsher restrictions after Christmas (personally I think they should have been harsher during the Christmas period as well but that's a whole discussion in itself).

We were wrong to keep a relatively high level of restrictions last summer, as we ended up having a similarly disastrous winter as those who were much more open last summer.

Those statements can both be true and aren't contradictory.

The second statement is not true at all though.

On Aug 31st we had many times the deaths per capita when compared with some of the most relaxed countries in Europe - Poland, Czech rep, Hungary, Slovakia etc etc

Now all of those countries have far worse death figures than ourselves. We have 896 deaths per million for instance, and the Czech Republic has 2,043.
On Aug 31st we had 9 times more deaths per million than them.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=SWE~AUT~BEL~CZE~DNK~FIN~FRA~DEU~GRC~HUN~IRL~ITA~LUX~NLD~NOR~POL~PRT~ROU~SVN~ESP~CHE~GBR~HRV&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Russman · 09-03-2021 02:44PM

paw patrol wrote: »

yes i have.
it's not the same thing by a long shot - you the whole consent and a lack of coercion at all that good stuff.
People self isolating cos they are concerned is not the same thing and prupsiely excluding people. But you know that anyway but couldn't resist twisting what I said cos you've no other argument

Pretty insincere of you..

No more insincere than most of what's posted on here.

For a start I didn't reference you or anyone specifically. There are some who's posts are far less reasoned than your own.

Now, what do you mean, no other argument ? Its not a contest or a point scoring exercise. Its a discussion forum.
It seems to me that some people don't want an apparent two tier set-up post vaccination when it doesn't suit them, but its fine when it does. The actual mechanics of how you get to having two tiers don't really matter.

With regard to the overall concept of vaccine certs and resulting access or not, to amenities etc etc, tbh I'm on the fence on it. I could be persuaded either way. I'll readily acknowledge that some would feel excluded, but I can also see the advantage of getting whatever parts of the economy we can, open as soon as we can. If that means a group of 65 year olds can go to a bar a couple of months before me, I'm fairly ok with that in the bigger scheme of things.

FintanMcluskey · 09-03-2021 02:46PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

The second statement is not true at all though.

On Aug 31st we had many times the deaths per capita when compared with some of the most relaxed countries in Europe - Poland, Czech rep, Hungary, Slovakia etc etc

Now all of those countries have far worse death figures than ourselves. We have 896 deaths per million for instance, and the Czech Republic has 2,043.
On Aug 31st we had 9 times more deaths per million than them.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=SWE~AUT~BEL~CZE~DNK~FIN~FRA~DEU~GRC~HUN~IRL~ITA~LUX~NLD~NOR~POL~PRT~ROU~SVN~ESP~CHE~GBR~HRV&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Can we start counting the deaths using the over 65 population

Ireland has about 5500+ deaths per million of its vulnerable citizens

Ireland has a very young population

It’s not an accurate metric to use deaths per 100k overall population when dealing with such a discriminatory disease

We don’t count infant mortality rates in nursing homes

PeterPan92 · 09-03-2021 02:52PM

Level 3 worked. People were able to go out enough that it was beneficial for mental health, while not having the huge impact on numbers that Level 2 during December.

Graham · 09-03-2021 03:02PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We did, but it was pretty short lived. If we do the same this summer, but earlier, I'll personally be happy enough.

+1

My guess it that's the what will happen once we get the numbers low enough.

Meanwhile the the vaccination program keeps on trucking hopefully meaning no 'next wave' and restrictions can be eased further.

FintanMcluskey · 09-03-2021 03:07PM

Graham wrote: »

+1

My guess it that's the what will happen once we get the numbers low enough.

Meanwhile the the vaccination program keeps on trucking hopefully meaning no 'next wave' and restrictions can be eased further.

What numbers “low enough” Graham?

Hellrazer · 09-03-2021 03:08PM

The czech republic is one of those strange ones I alluded to earlier this month when I calculated the death rate as a % of the entire population and over 65s

They have 10.65 million and an adult population over 65 of 2.1m

Theyve had 22,000 death - 92.4 % of them in over 65s which is 20328 deaths in over 65s.

Their % of the population as a % of the lot has a death rate of 0.2% - elsewhere its 0.08%

In over 65s its 0.95% of the over 65s have died - elsewhere its 0.52 - 0.6%

When you look at it this way they are in a fairly bad state.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings